A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Just for fun, much conjecture, and piggy-backing on the Lindor thread, our two choices might look like:

Lindor-Assuming the NYM kick in $70M, then my estimate is that we get 18 bWAR from Lindor for $100M.  Mayer is a constant in both trades, so in this scenario, we also throw in Philips.

Neto-We get 15 bWAR for maybe $65M, but requires us throwing in Eyanson.

Assuming both are acceptable clubhouse presences, this feels fairly even.  I would do either one if these are the correct parameters.

Lindor giving 15 fWAR over the next 5 years is fine, but you’re talking about ages 33-37.  It’s very possible you only get 8-10 fWAR in those years, especially if injuries factor in.  
 

Money is not the issue, because Lindor would cost lesser prospects that could equalize the costs.

But Lindor is getting into that age range where decline can be sudden and without warning.  
 

And then there’s the question about why are the Mets trying to move him?  Cohen has a greater net worth than the bottom 10 MLB owners combined.  Is their real goal strictly financial?

[JoeBrady]

51 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Fair assessment Neto only 24. I’d lean Neto and giving up Eyanson for the upside. But I think Lindor deal is possible if nothing but for tax relief for Mets. 50m is # I project and it will take a “winning” prospect to satiate the NY media. 

I think it usually revolves around the seller's motivation.  Trading Neto is bad optics.  That's Moreno's acknowledgement that LAA is poorly run.  But the Mets can spin a Lindor trade like Cohen is spending $50-100M to buy a better future.  None of it has to be true, but it's nice to have a story for the wife press.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Big trade idea

Rs Get: Adell 1.4 yrs left, Soriano 2.4 yrs left, Neto 3.4 yrs left 

LAA Get: Arias, Mayer, Valera or Witherspoon (whomever we aren’t as bullish on) 

To get those three, you have to include Eyanson and probably Gonzales or Godbout.

[moonslav59]

Neto & Jeffers and roll the dice with the current staff?

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

But Lindor is getting into that age range where decline can be sudden and without warning.  
 

And then there’s the question about why are the Mets trying to move him?

Undoubtedly true, but imho, the recency factor helps.  Bregman's platform year was maybe a 4.0 bWAR, while Lindor looks more like 5.0.  Alonso was more like 3.3.  Assuming a similar decline by all of them, Lindor is worth a lot more.

IRT Cohen's motivation, I've given up trying to analyze the NYMs.  But there could be a money angle.  Maybe Stearns wants a semi-top prospect and have another $34M to spend elsewhere.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Big trade idea

Rs Get: Adell 1.4 yrs left, Soriano 2.4 yrs left, Neto 3.4 yrs left 

LAA Get: Arias, Mayer, Valera or Witherspoon (whomever we aren’t as bullish on) 

 

 

That looks basically like you are adding Soriano and Adell.  Adell is okay, but not worth much.  Soriano started off like Pedro, but has reverted in his last 15 games.  I'd stick with the Mayer++/Neto construct.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Undoubtedly true, but imho, the recency factor helps.  Bregman's platform year was maybe a 4.0 bWAR, while Lindor looks more like 5.0.  Alonso was more like 3.3.  Assuming a similar decline by all of them, Lindor is worth a lot more.

IRT Cohen's motivation, I've given up trying to analyze the NYMs.  But there could be a money angle.  Maybe Stearns wants a semi-top prospect and have another $34M to spend elsewhere.

Bregman is 32 and has not been over a 3.7bWAR since age 30.

Alonso is 31 and has not been over a 3.3 bWAR since age 27 (2022.)

Lindor is slightly older than Breggie and has aged much better.

6.8 bWAR at age 30.

5.8 bWAR at age 31 (2025)

It's hard to know if this season is a fluke or a sign of a sharp decline. It's a gamble for a player that turns 33 in November with 5 years to go.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Undoubtedly true, but imho, the recency factor helps.  Bregman's platform year was maybe a 4.0 bWAR, while Lindor looks more like 5.0.  Alonso was more like 3.3.  Assuming a similar decline by all of them, Lindor is worth a lot more.

IRT Cohen's motivation, I've given up trying to analyze the NYMs.  But there could be a money angle.  Maybe Stearns wants a semi-top prospect and have another $34M to spend elsewhere.

Maybe he has a use for Story or Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

To me, Neto or Langeliers would be the top prizes. They would be very costly, in terms of the return, but they have control years beyond 2027.

Abrams or Goodman would be very helpful for our current needs and would also be very costly.

Francisco Alvarez might be too costly, too. Jeffers is a rental so would be cheaper.

Lots of other more moderate or minor deals are being mentioned, and that is likely what Brez ends up doing, but maybe he goes bold this time.

[UtahSox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Neto & Jeffers and roll the dice with the current staff?

Houck/ K Crawford/ Early coming back I would. 
 

if Breslow pulled that off I’d be ecstatic. confidence level Breslow has the stones to pull this off 2/10

[Larry Cook]

On 7/21/2026 at 7:19 AM, mvp 78 said:

They will need a SP because of IP limits 

I can see us getting a starting pitcher. 
1.) we have gray, Tolle, Bennett and sandavol now, 

2.) Tolle and Bennett are approaching innings limit, 

3.) Sandoval is a bullpen guy 

3.) Suarez may be coming off the DL soon. 
4.) early may make it back, but hard to tell. 
5.) Houck could be back mid September, 

6.) crochet maybe for the playoffs but with a rotator cuff, it is doubtful 

7.) Crawford is 2027 at the earliest. 
 

so who pitches in September after gray and Suarez????

[cp176]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I can see us getting a starting pitcher. 
1.) we have gray, Tolle, Bennett and sandavol now, 

2.) Tolle and Bennett are approaching innings limit, 

3.) Sandoval is a bullpen guy 

3.) Suarez may be coming off the DL soon. 
4.) early may make it back, but hard to tell. 
5.) Houck could be back mid September, 

6.) crochet maybe for the playoffs but with a rotator cuff, it is doubtful 

7.) Crawford is 2027 at the earliest. 
 

so who pitches in September after gray and Suarez????

I certainly wouldn’t trade any of our most promising young pitchers right now for anyone.  The pitchers we do have can’t stay off the il.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

3.) Sandoval is a bullpen guy 

I'm not sure why Sandoval is a bullpen guy.  And there is also Bello to consider, even as inconsistent as he is.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not sure why Sandoval is a bullpen guy.  And there is also Bello to consider, even as inconsistent as he is.

They will probably need him to start for the rest of the season considering the IP issues. 

[moonslav59]

Suarez replaces Rivera. That's easy. Rivera goes to AAA and then maybe is called up for the pen? Uberstine and Samaniego are the only farm pitchers on the 40 and not on the IL. (That's a bit unnerving.)

If and when Early returns or some other SP'er like Crochet, Oviedo, Crawford or Houck, my guess is Sandoval goes to the pen.

This day off helps, but we already have more games to play than everyone else, so add one more. The staff will be taxed later this season. We need to add someone or pray we get some decent returns from our IL group of pitchers.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, cp176 said:

I certainly wouldn’t trade any of our most promising young pitchers right now for anyone.  The pitchers we do have can’t stay off the il.

That's a great point, as we are down to two eligible far arms, now: Uberstine & Samaniego, neither of whom are SP'ers.

That being said, I'm not counting on Early to return or Eyanson to pitch in the bigs, this season, so trading one of them or Witherspoon would only affect the future.

The future is important, but we can add pitchers, this winter or next to replace who we trade.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

Uh, why can't we get these on TalkSox? Why not one for legends like Pedro Ciriaco?

 

[vegasbob]

Alluding to earlier comments that the Sox will run out of quality pitching before they run out of games.  

Breslow needs a SP who can reliably get 6 innings in August/September even if he has a 5.00 ERA.

The streak will prove to be both a blessing and a curse, in that the Sox will not get max value from expiring contracts.