A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Not much mention of Wily Adames much anymore, and for good reason. He's owed $28M year for 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT so will begin the next 5 years at ages 31-32-33-34-35. That's not really horrible, but his OPS+ has dropped from 118 in 2024 to 112 in 2025 to 97, so far this season. The 15 HRs are still nice, but his OBP has dipped to .281. His defense is no longer all that great, but he's not bad. He's still an upgrade over Story-Mayer and Monasterio-Cheng. I know Arias is in the wings, but we have an opening at 2B, too. it's been open for over a decade.

We lose the Story contract after 2027 and a $5M buyout, so do we really want to add 4 more years of a larger contract and risk being worse off than we are with Story, now? That's just part of the concern.

Maybe we get them to take the $30M owed Story and also kick in $5M a year from 2028-2031. I'm not sure that's a good deal, before we even start talking about who SF gets for him. If we gave the KC, it would knock $7M off the $23M a year remainder, so maybe $16M x 4 is not that bad.

Anyone like:

Story & KC 

to SFG for

W Adames and $5M for '28, '29, '30 & '31?

It's basically Adames for free in 2027 then $16M a year for 4 more, and we lose KC.

Does SFG say no?

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Not much mention of Wily Adames much anymore, and for good reason. He's owed $28M year for 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT so will begin the next 5 years at ages 31-32-33-34-35. That's not really horrible, but his OPS+ has dropped from 118 in 2024 to 112 in 2025 to 97, so far this season. The 15 HRs are still nice, but his OBP has dipped to .281. His defense is no longer all that great, but he's not bad. He's still an upgrade over Story-Mayer and Monasterio-Cheng. I know Arias is in the wings, but we have an opening at 2B, too. it's been open for over a decade.

We lose the Story contract after 2027 and a $5M buyout, so do we really want to add 4 more years of a larger contract and risk being worse off than we are with Story, now? That's just part of the concern.

Maybe we get them to take the $30M owed Story and also kick in $5M a year from 2028-2031. I'm not sure that's a good deal, before we even start talking about who SF gets for him. If we gave the KC, it would knock $7M off the $23M a year remainder, so maybe $16M x 4 is not that bad.

Anyone like:

Story & KC 

to SFG for

W Adames and $5M for '28, '29, '30 & '31?

It's basically Adames for free in 2027 then $16M a year for 4 more, and we lose KC.

Does SFG say no?

Haven’t looked at his splits in a few weeks, but I thought his bat would play in Boston. SFG Taking Story and KC, I’d do it…. I don’t think there is any chance he falls off the cliff Story has. Literally can’t be THAT bad……

 

plus he rakes post ASB every year…. so yeah I’m in. Definitely the least exciting of names discussed today. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Does SFG say no?

I'm back to my Psyche 101 renderings, but I think Posey will want to look good, at least on paper, in his next trade.  Story + KC will just like more l/t payroll.  I have an interest, but those backloaded contracts are a bear to deal with.  SF got two good years for really good money.  Now they have to pay the price by having 5 declining years at very serious money.

Just off the top of my head, if I had to sign him, I'd offer him maybe $110M/5.  That means SF owes me $46M.  I My pure guess is that Posey is going down with the ship on this one.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm back to my Psyche 101 renderings, but I think Posey will want to look good, at least on paper, in his next trade.  Story + KC will just like more l/t payroll.  I have an interest, but those backloaded contracts are a bear to deal with.  SF got two good years for really good money.  Now they have to pay the price by having 5 declining years at very serious money.

Just off the top of my head, if I had to sign him, I'd offer him maybe $110M/5.  That means SF owes me $46M.  I My pure guess is that Posey is going down with the ship on this one.

KC gets paid way less than Adames, so I'm not sure he's worried about that money.

I do think Posey has to think KC can be good to make this deal. It's not about Story.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not much mention of Wily Adames much anymore, and for good reason. He's owed $28M year for 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT so will begin the next 5 years at ages 31-32-33-34-35. That's not really horrible, but his OPS+ has dropped from 118 in 2024 to 112 in 2025 to 97, so far this season. The 15 HRs are still nice, but his OBP has dipped to .281. His defense is no longer all that great, but he's not bad. He's still an upgrade over Story-Mayer and Monasterio-Cheng. I know Arias is in the wings, but we have an opening at 2B, too. it's been open for over a decade.

We lose the Story contract after 2027 and a $5M buyout, so do we really want to add 4 more years of a larger contract and risk being worse off than we are with Story, now? That's just part of the concern.

Maybe we get them to take the $30M owed Story and also kick in $5M a year from 2028-2031. I'm not sure that's a good deal, before we even start talking about who SF gets for him. If we gave the KC, it would knock $7M off the $23M a year remainder, so maybe $16M x 4 is not that bad.

Anyone like:

Story & KC 

to SFG for

W Adames and $5M for '28, '29, '30 & '31?

It's basically Adames for free in 2027 then $16M a year for 4 more, and we lose KC.

Does SFG say no?

You are always trying to pawn off players to other teams like they would be so glad to get them. They Are Not. Does SF say no? They don’t even pick up the phone.🙈

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not much mention of Wily Adames much anymore, and for good reason. He's owed $28M year for 5 more years. He turns 31 in SEPT so will begin the next 5 years at ages 31-32-33-34-35. That's not really horrible, but his OPS+ has dropped from 118 in 2024 to 112 in 2025 to 97, so far this season. The 15 HRs are still nice, but his OBP has dipped to .281. His defense is no longer all that great, but he's not bad. He's still an upgrade over Story-Mayer and Monasterio-Cheng. I know Arias is in the wings, but we have an opening at 2B, too. it's been open for over a decade.

We lose the Story contract after 2027 and a $5M buyout, so do we really want to add 4 more years of a larger contract and risk being worse off than we are with Story, now? That's just part of the concern.

Maybe we get them to take the $30M owed Story and also kick in $5M a year from 2028-2031. I'm not sure that's a good deal, before we even start talking about who SF gets for him. If we gave the KC, it would knock $7M off the $23M a year remainder, so maybe $16M x 4 is not that bad.

Anyone like:

Story & KC 

to SFG for

W Adames and $5M for '28, '29, '30 & '31?

It's basically Adames for free in 2027 then $16M a year for 4 more, and we lose KC.

Does SFG say no?

Adames isn't "bad" now, but like you said there's a lot more time left on that contract. Maybe he plays better in Fenway? His defense slipping is not ideal though. You'd need him to still be strong in the field for most of the contract for it to be worth it. 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Old Red said:

You are always trying to pawn off players to other teams like they would be so glad to get them. They Are Not. Does SF say no? They don’t even pick up the phone.🙈

They don't even pick up the phone? Is that because he has the gift of foresight and knows what Breslow is already going to offer? I mean, they worked out a Devers trade last year. If he really wants to deal salary, I think he'd at least pick up the phone. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Adames isn't "bad" now, but like you said there's a lot more time left on that contract. Maybe he plays better in Fenway? His defense slipping is not ideal though. You'd need him to still be strong in the field for most of the contract for it to be worth it. 

I hesitate to say, "He can be moved to 2B," because we really need a SS first and foremost. Romy-Siegler-Mayer are okay at 2B.

I'd like to look Catcher first, but SS is right there.

DH/LF or 2B are also slots we could boost our offense with an add-on.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They don't even pick up the phone? Is that because he has the gift of foresight and knows what Breslow is already going to offer? I mean, they worked out a Devers trade last year. If he really wants to deal salary, I think he'd at least pick up the phone. 

I'm not sure every GM discounts KC's value like some here.

I do think SFG are looking to save money. Maybe we'd have to add Phillips or Gonzales to the deal, but I agree- they pick up the phone.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I hesitate to say, "He can be moved to 2B," because we really need a SS first and foremost. Romy-Siegler-Mayer are okay at 2B.

I'd like to look Catcher first, but SS is right there.

DH/LF or 2B are also slots we could boost our offense with an add-on.

Can't keep moving everyone to 2b though! Need to acquire someone that can stick at SS. Do they just wait for Arias to be the SS in '27? He won't be an above average bat, but he'll be a good glove guy.

C is a need. Big bopper DH is a need. I think you can punt on C until the offseason TBH.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure every GM discounts KC's value like some here.

I do think SFG are looking to save money. Maybe we'd have to add Phillips or Gonzales to the deal, but I agree- they pick up the phone.

KC has been really bad ever since he got sick this year. He had a brief stretch where he looked decent early this season, but it hasn't really taken off the way anyone has wanted to see it. Overall, his numbers and expected stats are even down from last season. If a GM is seeing something else, I want to know what they are looking at. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Can't keep moving everyone to 2b though! Need to acquire someone that can stick at SS. Do they just wait for Arias to be the SS in '27? He won't be an above average bat, but he'll be a good glove guy.

C is a need. Big bopper DH is a need. I think you can punt on C until the offseason TBH.

I WOULD prefer we get a guy we know will play SS for 3+ years.

I really like Arias, and if he shows he can make it, we can deal with that issue then... or... he he he... just move one to 2B.

We have had a major need at 2B for most of the last decade,

We need a big RHB or a couple good ones. We can wait on C until the winter, but I think Jeffers would be a nice rental.

Just get 2 for 2 of these slots:

C/DH

SS

DL/LF

2B

Normally, a catcher will not be cheaper than these other slots, but we gotta get what we can get.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The rest of the Red Sox summer will hinge on Eduardo Rivera -- who will either be traded in a package for a useful bat or will take the spot in the rotation vacated by Jake Bennett, who will be traded instead.

Rooting for you, ERiv!

[notin]

29 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The rest of the Red Sox summer will hinge on Eduardo Rivera -- who will either be traded in a package for a useful bat or will take the spot in the rotation vacated by Jake Bennett, who will be traded instead.

Rooting for you, ERiv!

Assuming/hoping the Sox stay off the  MLB active roster for trades, except Duran and maybe Mayer.

More likely the Eyanson/ Witherspoon/ Wehunt /Phillips crowd is where the trade bait comes from…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I WOULD prefer we get a guy we know will play SS for 3+ years.

I really like Arias, and if he shows he can make it, we can deal with that issue then... or... he he he... just move one to 2B.

We have had a major need at 2B for most of the last decade,

We need a big RHB or a couple good ones. We can wait on C until the winter, but I think Jeffers would be a nice rental.

Just get 2 for 2 of these slots:

C/DH

SS

DL/LF

2B

Normally, a catcher will not be cheaper than these other slots, but we gotta get what we can get.

I think a short term SS like Peña makes sense.  Push Story to 2b upon his return, and creates a convenient bridge to Arias/Mayer.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They don't even pick up the phone? Is that because he has the gift of foresight and knows what Breslow is already going to offer? I mean, they worked out a Devers trade last year. If he really wants to deal salary, I think he'd at least pick up the phone. 

I was just going by the Pawn Shop offer that always seems to be made in all of these suggested trades. I also don’t see the Red Sox picking up that kind of salary.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Can't keep moving everyone to 2b though! Need to acquire someone that can stick at SS. Do they just wait for Arias to be the SS in '27? He won't be an above average bat, but he'll be a good glove guy.

C is a need. Big bopper DH is a need. I think you can punt on C until the offseason TBH.

I thought Mayer was supposed to be the next big thing at SS?

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Can't keep moving everyone to 2b though! Need to acquire someone that can stick at SS. Do they just wait for Arias to be the SS in '27? He won't be an above average bat, but he'll be a good glove guy.

C is a need. Big bopper DH is a need. I think you can punt on C until the offseason TBH.

A catcher that can hit would be nice, but the staff is familiar with Narvaez and Wong.  Only catcher to consider is one that can DH tjis year and is controlled for next (plus?), but at that point it’s probably too specific.

A LF to replace Duran would be ideal.  Preferably a slugger but Taylor Ward’s elite OBP this year is tempting.  And if Jeremy Peña can be had, that makes sense too.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I thought Mayer was supposed to be the next big thing at SS?

I think I liked Mayer better at 2B/3B. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think I liked Mayer better at 2B/3B. 

If the Sox are buyers, he might do so elsewhere.  Despite what many Sox fans think, he still does carry trade value and will be among the top players asked for by other teams…

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think I liked Mayer better at 2B/3B. 

he doesnt hit well enough to fill one of those spots though.  At least not if we want to be a serious threat to reach playoffs and be competitive once there.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If the Sox are buyers, he might do so elsewhere.  Despite what many Sox fans think, he still does carry trade value and will be among the top players asked for by other teams…

I'd trade him in a Boston minute. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If the Sox are buyers, he might do so elsewhere.  Despite what many Sox fans think, he still does carry trade value and will be among the top players asked for by other teams…

how much trade value though? Better bet might be to just try again next year with him.  Byron Buxton struggled into he didnt.

I consider moving Mayer, but he has options , right? Im more keen to send him down.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd trade him in a Boston minute. 

If getting top prospect value , sure.

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd trade him in a Boston minute. 

You really despise this roster.   It seems like you would DFA about half of  them and then trade the other half just to get rid of them…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If getting top prospect value , sure.

I'd trade him for less. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

how much trade value though? Better bet might be to just try again next year with him.  Byron Buxton struggled into he didnt.

I consider moving Mayer, but he has options , right? Im more keen to send him down.

If I can hold him, I do.  But as I think (re:know) Boston will be buying this deadline unless they completely collapse in the next 2 weeks, I have to think he is solid trade bait as well.  MLB numbers in a limited sample are not great, but a year ago he was a consensus top 15 prospect and that will carry some weight.  Teams might ask for Arias first, and maybe Breslow prefers that.  Who knows? But I sell Mayer before Arias.

I threw out a Mayer/Phillips option for Pena.  Can’t speak for Houston, but they will need a SS if they deal Peña…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

You really despise this roster.   It seems like you would DFA about half of  them and then trade the other half just to get rid of them…

I love a lot of this roster. I'm just honest about parts of this roster I don't like. 

I also see value in trading guys to get the core of the next WS title team. 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

If I can hold him, I do.  But as I think (re:know) Boston will be buying this deadline unless they completely collapse in the next 2 weeks, I have to think he is solid trade bait as well.  MLB numbers in a limited sample are not great, but a year ago he was a consensus top 15 prospect and that will carry some weight.  Teams might ask for Arias first, and maybe Breslow prefers that.  Who knows? But I sell Mayer before Arias.

I threw out a Mayer/Phillips option for Pena.  Can’t speak for Houston, but they will need a SS if they deal Peña…

I think Id make that deal.

[drewski6]

As the main piece in getting Pena, a 5 WAR SS, with 1.5 yrs left modest AAV on his deal.  

Thats pretty good value for Mayer.  I just dont want to trade him to trade him.  There is a decent chance he is a good MLB player at some point, if maybe, not as good as we once thought.  Theres also a chance he turns into a core player for whatever team he happens to be on.  Hes lost some shine, and Im not trading him for very little. BUt Id trade him for significant value.