A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Roman Anthony is not Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge has carried the NYY franchise since he's been on that team. The last time they missed the playoffs was when Judge missed almost all of June and July in 2023. That lineup isn't the same when he's on the bench. 

Bingo! That was an easy one. Quite the softball question.👍

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Bingo! That was an easy one. Quite the softball question.👍

If I had a time machine, one of the first things I do is make sure Aaron Judge signs in SF. 

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

OPS 857 since start of June…. 350 obp% 

I'd be open to trade for Bichette, but with the two player options, he's difficult to value.  How much would you pay if we was a FA v his current salary.  That's what NYM would have to kick in.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be open to trade for Bichette, but with the two player options, he's difficult to value.  How much would you pay if we was a FA v his current salary.  That's what NYM would have to kick in.

You let him finish the season in NY and sign him in January.  Problem solved…

[UtahSox]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok. I also don't think his swing is a good fit for Fenway. He doesn't have that pull AIR swing that Durbin is now utilizing so effectively. 

Agreed only bats .323 with 924 OPS in Fenway + 9HRs in 34 games…. Jesus I feel like you’d talk yourself out of Nvidia stock in 2022 even knowing what you know now. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If I had a time machine, one of the first things I do is make sure Aaron Judge signs in SF. 

So that’s priority over killing baby Hitler or making a thousand winning sports bets?

[UtahSox]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be open to trade for Bichette, but with the two player options, he's difficult to value.  How much would you pay if we was a FA v his current salary.  That's what NYM would have to kick in.

He has a negative trade value and it’s worth a crazy amount more for Mets to move on from him soon (I think like 70-80m). Probably not even a top 15 prospect. 

[notin]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

'25 -14 DRS, -12 OAA

'26 -3 DRS, -4 OAA

He is a bad fielder, unless you're entertained by balls bouncing off his head and into the stands. 

Who isn’t?

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That middle fork in the road where they just buy a middle reliever or whatever is not helping anyone. It's not showing faith in the team to win and not showing the conviction to sell. That's Breslow cowering to save his job. 

I'd rather we pick a lane and go for it than just trade mid level prospects for a rental RHB and a RP'er or two.

Right now, I'd say sell every FA to be and others not part of the 2027 and/or beyond plan (maybe Duran or even Whitlock..)

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be open to trade for Bichette, but with the two player options, he's difficult to value.  How much would you pay if we was a FA v his current salary.  That's what NYM would have to kick in.

Nope.

[moonslav59]

According to fangraphs, we have the following players ranked as such on defense:

Catcher: Narvaez 8th, but 0 DRS (middle of the pack)

1B: Contreras 14th in DRS (+1) and 0 OAA (middle of pack)

2B: Mayer 15th in DRS (+2) not bad for so few innings. IKF is 11th in OAA!

SS: IKF is 14th at +1 and 20th in OAA at +1. (tiny SS)

3B: Durbin is tied with Breggie at +10 DRS and tied at #4 in OAA (+4)

LF: Duran +6 is T4th. and T2nd in OAA +5

CF: Rafaela started slow but is now 2nd in DRS (+15)/3rd OAA +11 (behind different players in both)

RF: Abreu +16 is more than the #2 and #3 combined! 2nd in OAA at +6

As a team DRS/OAA:

#1/2 RF

#2/3 CF

#2/4 3B

#3/6 LF (seems worse than this)

__________________________

9/7 2B (a vast improvement over years past)

9/16 1B (seems better than this)

17 (14th in fangraph D rating) Catcher

_________________________

29/23 SS (Yes, Story has slipped that far!)

[moonslav59]

Team Positional fWAR Rankings

4th 1B (27th in '25 and 24th '21-'24) Vastly improved

5th CF (1st in '25 & 16th '21-'24) About the same as '25/vastly improved beforehand

9th 3B (7th in '25 and 6th '21-'24) About the same in both.

9th RF (6th in '25 and 11th '21-'24) About the same in both

17th LF (3rd in '25 and 15th '21-'24) Worse than '25/about he same as beforehand

19th C (20th in '25 and 21st '21-'24) About the same in both

20th 2B (23rd in '25 and 26th '21-'24) A little better in both

29th SS (18th in '25 and 14th '21-'24) Much worse than '25/ about the same as beforehand

It's hard to blame anyone for the LF decline as we headed into 2026 with Duran/Anthony there. 1B has been a big improvement, and 2B has been a slight improvement. SS has been a big minus from '25.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Roman Anthony is not Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge has carried the NYY franchise since he's been on that team. The last time they missed the playoffs was when Judge missed almost all of June and July in 2023. That lineup isn't the same when he's on the bench. 

Of course Anthony is not Judge, but would the Sox be under .500 without their major injuries?

Why make that distinction for the Yanks and not the Sox?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Agreed only bats .323 with 924 OPS in Fenway + 9HRs in 34 games…. Jesus I feel like you’d talk yourself out of Nvidia stock in 2022 even knowing what you know now. 

Bichette was a good player at one point, since the start of '24, I'm not buying his stock.

[mvp 78]

If he at Fenway for his whole career, he would have hit 20+ HR only once according to Statcast.

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

 

I’m fully in Camp Sell.  I will enjoy this resurgence as long as it lasts, but I just think this team is too dependent on rookie pitchers and going for it and forcing them to overload could easily put next season at risk.

Sell Gray, Chapman Coulombe and Duran.

If there is time, add in Guerrero.

I'm still in camp sell.  But if the Red Sox can get to over .500 before the trade deadline I might be compelled otherwise. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

 

I’m fully in Camp Sell.  I will enjoy this resurgence as long as it lasts, but I just think this team is too dependent on rookie pitchers and going for it and forcing them to overload could easily put next season at risk.

Sell Gray, Chapman Coulombe and Duran.

If there is time, add in Guerrero.

I agree.  Those are the top candidates to sell but I'm listening in on anyone not named Crochet and Anthony. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I agree.  Those are the top candidates to sell but I'm listening in on anyone not named Crochet and Anthony. 

I'd listen on everybody TBH. Unless you have the best player in baseball, everyone could be traded. Maybe even then. 

[moonslav59]

If we do buy, buying Bichette would get me into the fire Brez camp.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

A competent CBO can move bad contracts. Unfortunately, the Sox don't have one of those. 

He can't move them without paying most of what's in the two contracts.  You and I disagree on the meaning of the word competent.  For example, I think a CBO who refuses to pay a king's ransom to keep Bregman is competent, especially when his replacement is as good and a whole lost less expensive, is competent.  I was against letting Devers go, but I'm not so sure that wasn't a smart move.  

Are you saying bringing in Contreras bat wasn't a competent move?  How about keeping Duran, which just about everyone agrees was sheer lunacy?  Right now his OPS is low, but he is contributing--and needed because Anthony has a weak pinky finger.  

 

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

He can't move them without paying most of what's in the two contracts.  You and I disagree on the meaning of the word competent.  For example, I think a CBO who refuses to pay a king's ransom to keep Bregman is competent, especially when his replacement is as good and a whole lost less expensive, is competent.  I was against letting Devers go, but I'm not so sure that wasn't a smart move.  

Are you saying bringing in Contreras bat wasn't a competent move?  How about keeping Duran, which just about everyone agrees was sheer lunacy?  Right now his OPS is low, but he is contributing--and needed because Anthony has a weak pinky finger.  

Breslow built a team that is 30th in HR and 29th in R. They are 17-27 at Fenway. Even if he traded for some good players, he is incompetent. The overall results have to matter. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

He can't move them without paying most of what's in the two contracts.  You and I disagree on the meaning of the word competent.  For example, I think a CBO who refuses to pay a king's ransom to keep Bregman is competent, especially when his replacement is as good and a whole lost less expensive, is competent.  I was against letting Devers go, but I'm not so sure that wasn't a smart move.  

Are you saying bringing in Contreras bat wasn't a competent move?  How about keeping Duran, which just about everyone agrees was sheer lunacy?  Right now his OPS is low, but he is contributing--and needed because Anthony has a weak pinky finger.  

Brez probably could have traded Story, last winter, while paying a modest sum, Now, he'd need to pay the whole amount or close to it.

Brez could have traded Duran after 2024. Many of us called for it, then and after 2025.

Ultimately, a GM has to be a fortune teller to avoid criticism, and Brez missed on those two. It matters not if he hit on more than he missed, according to many here.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow built a team that is 30th in HR and 29th in R. They are 17-27 at Fenway. Even if he traded for some good players, he is incompetent. The overall results have to matter. 

You and Ole Red make a nice couple. Have you two set a date, yet?

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez probably could have traded Story, last winter, while paying a modest sum, Now, he'd need to pay the whole amount or close to it.

Brez could have traded Duran after 2024. Many of us called for it, then and after 2025.

Ultimately, a GM has to be a fortune teller to avoid criticism, and Brez missed on those two. It matters not if he hit on more than he missed, according to many here.

If he hit more than he missed, the team wouldn't be below .500. 

[notin]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd listen on everybody TBH. Unless you have the best player in baseball, everyone could be traded. Maybe even then. 

Well, it didn’t work out so well last time Boston did that…

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If he hit more than he missed, the team wouldn't be below .500. 

You crack me up. Of course he's hit more than he's misssed.

If you count non moves, it's closer, but the roster is better than when he too over, and on paper maybe even better than 2025's roster.

You talk of the Yanks without Judge, but won't consider Sox injuries into this W-L equation you put forward.

He's certainly made mistakes and should have made trades he did not.

Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Contreras, Durbin> Bregman, Refsnyder, Harrison, Priester & Drohan

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, it didn’t work out so well last time Boston did that…

It wasn't a good trade though! I'm sure I could have made it work! 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

You crack me up. Of course he's hit more than he's misssed.

If you count non moves, it's closer, but the roster is better than when he too over, and on paper maybe even better than 2025's roster.

You talk of the Yanks without Judge, but won't consider Sox injuries into this W-L equation you put forward.

He's certainly made mistakes and should have made trades he did not.

Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Contreras, Durbin> Bregman, Refsnyder, Harrison, Priester & Drohan

His non-moves have to outweigh his hits if the team is well below .500. Otherwise, why is the team below .500???

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

His non-moves have to outweigh his hits if the team is well below .500. Otherwise, why is the team below .500???

Just took them a while to jell.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His non-moves have to outweigh his hits if the team is well below .500. Otherwise, why is the team below .500???

The same reason the NYY are under .500 w/o Judge.

Unforeseen drops by vets and players in or approaching prime.

How about blaming the players, for once?

So, when we get to 1 game over .500, you will move the goalposts, right?