A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

The part not taken into account is they are a long way from competing, and the internal dialogue of “do we jumpstart the rebuild, as we can’t win with him? Perhaps a big haul sets us up for 3-4 year run in 4 years.” Not saying it’s happening, but it’s a thought in the back of many minds in KC. 

They were in the postseason two years ago, and it’s usually not a huge step for any team.

The difference between the best teams in MLB and the worst is one win every 5 games.  Tear downs and rebuilds rarely work, and KC might find it easier to keep the stars they do have and add on.  Most times when young star players are dealt, it’s not to kick start a rebuild so much as to save money.  KC already has their commitment from him.

In 5 years, his player options kick in.  Maybe they move him in 3 to 4 years…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

This was in reference to the KC Royals more so than Red Sox. 

My bad. I see now, where I went wrong.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

They were in the postseason two years ago, and it’s usually not a huge step for any team.

The difference between the best teams in MLB and the worst is one win every 5 games.  Tear downs and rebuilds rarely work, and KC might find it easier to keep the stars they do have and add on.  Most times when young star players are dealt, it’s not to kick start a rebuild so much as to save money.  KC already has their commitment from him.

In 5 years, his player options kick in.  Maybe they move him in 3 to 4 years…

Very true. Witt is most likely dream scenario. 

[JoeBrady]

On 7/6/2026 at 11:38 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

That's true, but if we're going to be totally consistent don't we also have to replace Contreras's 2026 OPS with his 2025 OPS?  Otherwise we're kind of playing mix and match.

Using pre-season 2026 projections might be the fairest method of all.

I left off Mayer from the list just to make up for guys that might have over-performed.  I did the entire projection at one point and we came in about #13 overall.

[JoeBrady]

On 7/6/2026 at 11:59 AM, notin said:

Murphy, on the other hand, actually makes a lot of sense for Boston.  But his contract isn’t so problematic for Atlanta

It's not onerous, but too much for a backup catcher.  For us, $15M*2, plus a team option, is not a lot.  The Braves should have to kick in some money, but even maybe $10M and I'd trade for him in a heartbeat.

[JoeBrady]

On 7/6/2026 at 12:23 PM, Old Red said:

Murphy on the other hand makes no sense for the Red Sox even if he was making $5M the next two years+ let alone the $15M he’s owed. He’s been rolling down hill the last 3 years.

16 HRs in 291 ABs, with good defense, is still pretty good.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, notin said:

Shaw is the perfect hit. Capable of batting leadoff and getting n base.  15-20 HR power.  Speedy enough to stretch singles into doubles.  Great defense.

The fun part is that we have an identical player already playing 3rd.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have 6 guys over .755, although two (romy & Seigler) have tiny sample sizes. The next two are on the IL (Sogard .721 and IKF .705.)

Romy and Seigler have given us just what we need.

Wong is making up for Narvaez, and Narvaez is making "down" for Wong's 2025 low.

Durbin might be cooling down, while Monasterio got a big hit, tonight.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

16 HRs in 291 ABs, with good defense, is still pretty good.

He's way better than Narvaez on offense.

He's better than Yoshida at DH, and if we can use Romy at 2B vs LHPs, Murphy could DH FT, if needed.

[moonslav59]

We hear a lot about Brez trading away our rotation depth, but we lost 5 of out top 9 to 10 SP'ers, including our ace, and this is what we've seen recently:

Gray: 10-1 2.61 on season, and 2.03 in last 11 GS

Suarez: 3.15 on the season and 2.80 ERA last 12 GS

Bennett: 3.10 season & 1.78 last 4 GS/1.35 last 3

Tolle: 3.14 on the season & big game tonight

Early: 3.44 on the season & 3.21 last 10 games

Let's hope Sandoval can step in and do well.

[cp176]

16 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Abrams for Tolle and Mayer? I’d do that deal 

Why would anyone trade Tolle? 

[cp176]

2 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Why would anyone trade Tolle? 

Tolle is big, likeable with a personality that makes him a fan favorite.  Trading away a potentially excellent starting young pitcher who at least at this point looks durable would be absolutely foolish.

[Old Red]

The Red Sox are doing some ROWDY YATES. Rollin, rollin, rollin. Only 7 games under 500 for the for the first time since May 23. Yee ha!

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, cp176 said:

Why would anyone trade Tolle? 

I'm not for "trading Tolle," but the same question applies to WSH: why would they trade Abrams?

They have a better record than we do.

They are closer to a WC berth than we are.

[notin]

4 hours ago, cp176 said:

Why would anyone trade Tolle? 

For who? Without knowing what comes back, I couldn’t answer…

[notin]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

16 HRs in 291 ABs, with good defense, is still pretty good.

Murphy is a good fit, but is on the IL after fracturing his middle finger.  Concerns that he’s been going down hill for 3 years are overblown, since he only has 14 plate appearances this year, and his 2025 wasn’t bad, netting 2.5 fWAR in only 337 PA.

Atlanta needs SS and SP.  They’ve been using MLB journeymen Mauricio Dubon and Jorge Mateo at SS, and have activated and DFAd Carlos Carrasco multiple times this year to start games.  While they could use Story, and he would be cheaper, doubtful that’s the route…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, cp176 said:

Why would anyone trade Tolle? 

They don't. What- Tampa is sending us Caminero?

Red Sox FINALLY develop young pitchers with top of the rotation potential -- the literal building blocks of any rebuild. That is always the core back to respectability (see 2026)... and eventually contention.

Trade your All-Stars on expiring contracts, but keep your good young controllables. 

Unless, of course, some team is willing to trade you the Number One prospect in baseball for Mason Miller...

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Murphy is a good fit, but is on the IL after fracturing his middle finger.  

I think Murphy just came off the IL.

[moonslav59]

I read Tolle is 35:1 on the ROY Award.

Suarez 50:1 on Cy Young Award.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They don't. What- Tampa is sending us Caminero?

Red Sox FINALLY develop young pitchers with top of the rotation potential -- the literal building blocks of any rebuild. That is always the core back to respectability (see 2026)... and eventually contention.

Trade your All-Stars on expiring contracts, but keep your good young controllables. 

Unless, of course, some team is willing to trade you the Number One prospect in baseball for Mason Miller...

BTV gives Tolle roughly the same surplus value as Zack Neto and CJ Abrams.  Who pulls that trigger?

 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Murphy just came off the IL.

He really is an easy fit for a good RHB.  
 

Catchers rarely move at the deadline but as you said, he could DH for a bit.  And if the Sox staff can pitch to Gasper, they’ve  can try to ramo up and pitch to Murphy.  Assuming his finger isn’t an issue…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

He really is an easy fit for a good RHB.  
Catchers rarely love at the deadline but as you said, he could DH for a bit.  And if the Sox staff can pitch to Gasper, they’ve activated can ramp up and pitch to Murphy…

ATL has catchers but could also use Murphy at DH. They are going for a ring.

We need to give them something that will make them better, now.

I guess I'm just not sold on a Chapman rebound, and that contract is a killer. JH won't spend another penny, if we add his contract. Including Yoshida & Story might help, short term, but still.

I still like the Story for Murphy framework for a deal, but Story needs to start playing- even if in rehab. (maybe a winter deal)

[notin]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

ATL has catchers but could also use Murphy at DH. They are going for a ring.

We need to give them something that will make them better, now.

I guess I'm just not sold on a Chapman rebound, and that contract is a killer. JH won't spend another penny, if we add his contract. Including Yoshida & Story might help, short term, but still.

I still like the Story for Murphy framework for a deal, but Story needs to start playing- even if in rehab. (maybe a winter deal)

Atlanta certainly could DH Murphy, given to date they’ve been getting by with Dominic Smith.  They also have Mike Yastrzemski they could turn to.  Neither gets anyone excited.

Jarren Duran actually makes some sense for them, given their DH and SS’s also fill their void in LF.  A definite low sell on Duran that also creates a void in Boston’s LF.  Brayan Bello makes sense, since Struder, Schwellenbach, and Smith-Schawver are all out with injuries, no doubt incurred during their inclusion in the same tongue twister. (The more I look at this Braves team,  I wonder how is this team over .500, let alone in first place?  I mean, f*** that whole notion that the AL is weaker when this slapdash squad is running away with the NL East.)

[Maxbialystock]

After a longish (for me) absence, a few thoughts about these Sox and Breslow, whom I have regularly condemned and priaised.

Right now I'm trending for Breslow because I love the pitching which has persevered despite all the injuries and the up and downness of the bullpen.   They are ranked 7th in team ERA and have been 5th and they are 3d in quality starts.  The 2018 108 win Sox with the highest payroll in MLB were ranked 8th in team ERA and  9th in quality starts.  

We all know the hitting stinks, but much of that is on CB and John Henry who signed Story and Yioshida, who are pricey, long term (thru 2027) and rotten at the plate.  Contreras, on the other hand, is a Breslow blue plate special with a .926 OPS.  Bregman was good for a while last season, but was not a smart buy by the Cubs.  Dumping Devers also helped.  

So, while I agree the 2026 Sox can't hit worth beans, I'm willing to be patient.  Anthony is the real deal with one horrible finger.   So far Durbin's season is no worse than Bregman's with the glove and at the plate.  Contreras, Abreu, Rafaela, and maybe Gonzalez and Wong are hitting well (but with few at bats).,  Heck Duran is 2d on the Sox in rbi's and dingers despite his .625 OPS.  Durbin had a great June after lousy April and May, but so far July is like April and June.   And so far the Sox have just 26 unearned runs--the lineup is providing the best Sox defense in years,

 

 

[UtahSox]

6 hours ago, cp176 said:

Why would anyone trade Tolle? 

To try and win more baseball games??? You can’t get good players without giving up good players. RS need a MIF with a great bat more than a very promising LHP (crochet, Suarez, Early still here) 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

The fun part is that we have an identical player already playing 3rd.

He going to be leading off at some point? 

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, cp176 said:

Tolle is big, likeable with a personality that makes him a fan favorite.  Trading away a potentially excellent starting young pitcher who at least at this point looks durable would be absolutely foolish.

I wouldn't trade Tolle since he has TOTR starter upside. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

To try and win more baseball games??? You can’t get good players without giving up good players. RS need a MIF with a great bat more than a very promising LHP (crochet, Suarez, Early still here) 

Abrams is a decent player. Sox should be able to develop somebody like him, not trade away a potential ace for him.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abrams is a decent player. Sox should be able to develop somebody like him, not trade away a potential ace for him.

You mean like marshmallow Mayer?

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You mean like marshmallow Mayer?

They should have been able to develop him. 

The last DUDE they were able to develop was Devers. Every guy since then has just been a guy. There's still hope for Roman next season.