A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

What are Goodman stats away from Coors? That would be amazing. 

B-R gives you all you need to know.

Hunter Goodman turns 27 in October, so he is in peak prime.

He hit .843 last year and is at .856, this year. In his career, he has caught 183 games, DH'd in 76, played RF in 37 and 1B in 12. (LF in 7)

Career: .815 at Coors and .777 away. This year, he is at .990 AWAY! (.702 at Coors) In 2025, he was over .800 H & A.

,841 v L and .779 v R

He has 43 HRs in the last 365 days.

COL hardly ever trades its best players.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

What are Goodman stats away from Coors? That would be amazing. 

Colorado doesn't usually trade anyone, even when it makes 100% sense to trade them.  I doubt he is going anywhere.  And would probably cost more than we can afford.

[JoeBrady]

Most of my posts have been about adding a hitter, and with good reason.  But I think we also need an RP.  Getting Weaver from the NYM would be a good add.

[UtahSox]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just speculating, but Adames' old form is about a 110 OPS+ with about 30 HRs.  Since the start of May, he has a .773 OPS with 11 HRs in 199 ABs.  I'd argue that he has already returned to his old form.  I also think that Oracle is suppressing his numbers.  IMO, the backloading of his contract is an issue, and that SF has to pay for that, as well as pay for some of his age 34 & 35 seasons.  But I have little doubt about his current performance.

IRT CJ, I don't think the Nats would trade him.  They are finally contenders for the first time in a while.

Agree Adames is still by far my favorite fit for this team. He would fit the “willing to take on salary” RS stated publicly category. Obviously every trade will require risk, this would be risking 3 years from now being another Story vs losing all our future farm pieces. I also just think Adames is a good baseball player and will only be 35 when contract is up. Dodgers are FULL of 33-37 year old good baseball players. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just speculating, but Adames' old form is about a 110 OPS+ with about 30 HRs.  Since the start of May, he has a .773 OPS with 11 HRs in 199 ABs.  I'd argue that he has already returned to his old form.  I also think that Oracle is suppressing his numbers.  IMO, the backloading of his contract is an issue, and that SF has to pay for that, as well as pay for some of his age 34 & 35 seasons.  But I have little doubt about his current performance.

IRT CJ, I don't think the Nats would trade him.  They are finally contenders for the first time in a while.

Adames turns 31 in SEPT. He had a 111 OPS+ from age 25-28.

It's been 107 the last 2 seasons, which is not bad. 30 HRs per 162 would be very helpful.

I don't know much about his defense, but he's been about a 0 dWAR over the past 3 seasons combined.

I'd like to get him, but $28M x 5 years from ages 31 to 35 is not near the top of my wish list.

I agree on WSH not trading CJ.

I'm thinking BLowe plus Jeffers is reasonable.

[UtahSox]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

.

COL hardly ever trades its best players.

 

 

Yep he is not going anywhere….. i forgot about Monfort loyalty

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Yep he is not going anywhere….. i forgot about Monfort loyalty

It's BLowe and Jeffers as the most obtainable and helpful two we can hope for.

Adames and BLowe could maybe be done, but I'm not sure I want to give up a lot for a 31 y/o SS owed $28M x 5.

[UtahSox]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Most of my posts have been about adding a hitter, and with good reason.  But I think we also need an RP.  Getting Weaver from the NYM would be a good add.

I saw on BTV

RS get: Bichette (rakes in Fenway) heating up in June. - Peralta- Devin Williams

Mets get: Bello- Campbell (upside moves)- Jake Bennett

 

peralta doesn’t make any sense but maybe if we go on a run he would be fun to have…. If not we could trade him again in 30 days

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I saw on BTV

RS get: Bichette (rakes in Fenway) heating up in June. - Peralta- Devin Williams

Mets get: Bello- Campbell (upside moves)- Jake Bennett

peralta doesn’t make any sense but maybe if we go on a run he would be fun to have…. If not we could trade him again in 30 days

 

I never wanted Bichette, last winter: I want him even less, now. If the Mets paid half his salary, I'd still say no.

Bello & Campbell's money would cancel out a big chunk of his deal.

Bichette gets $42M x 2 as player options in 2027 & 2028, so we'd actually save money over the long term. I'd do that 2 for 1 trade.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Fun with small samples: Seigler has a 0.6 bWAR in 12 games.  Extrapolates to 7.5 for 150 games. 😁

13-36 and a pretty good glove. So far, and so good.

[drewski6]

Fangraphs gives us a 20% chance to make the playoffs.  I still lean sell

[drewski6]

Do you think we can get sebastian walcott from rangers for sonny gray??

[UtahSox]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fangraphs gives us a 20% chance to make the playoffs.  I still lean sell

Every move i have seen anyone list has 2027 more in mind… 2026 while I want to win but agree long shot.
 

Aside from the Mets trade. But here is the logical case.

mets trade would give them 65m in salary relief while taking back only 17m. that would save them 80-90m in cash savings. Give them 2 young highly touted guys who they could “fix” and Jake Bennett who looks really really good. 

For the RS one thing they can do is develop pitchers so we could easily survive that move. Plus will need space in next years starting rotation. So trading Bennett would be survivable. 

i just don’t see another bat available in FA anywhere near the value of Bichette. Devin Williams could be fixed/ be a boost to bullpen in 2026 maybe 2027?.
Peralta would be awesome to add to 2026 rotation if we got into WC, but also could be sold at deadline if we don’t go on a run. That my case for the most 2026 centric trade I’ve seen on here. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

i just don’t see another bat available in FA anywhere near the value of Bichette. 

We have .680 bats.

He's .734 since 2024 (1335 PAs)

He's not the big bat we need. His 32 HRs in 1335 is about 15 over a full season. Career, he's about 22 HRs per 650.

He's expensive and can opt out.

BIG NOPE.

N ope on Devin W, too.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Do you think we can get sebastian walcott from rangers for sonny gray??

No, but it's the type of deal which would push me into sell mode.  But not happening.  Tolle maybe.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

I saw on BTV

RS get: Bichette (rakes in Fenway) heating up in June. - Peralta- Devin Williams

Mets get: Bello- Campbell (upside moves)- Jake Bennett

 

peralta doesn’t make any sense but maybe if we go on a run he would be fun to have…. If not we could trade him again in 30 days

 

Williams is too erratic.  We don't need the pitching version of Duran.  Peralta should be better than he is showing.  Bichette will likely should revert back a little, but he still has a 27/3 K/W this month.  And if he doesn't revert, then we are stuck with a very bad contract the next two years.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

For the RS one thing they can do is develop pitchers

I don't quite believe that.  We've done well, but that could also be a small sample size.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'll take Bichette and here are my stats why:

his 8-year 162-game averages of 4 WAR, 94 R, 94 RBI, 193 H, 39 2B, 24 HR, .290 BA, .793 OPS.

The Red Sox really need a couple more guys with such numbers.

Story in 11 years is most similar: 5.1 WAR, 94 R, 96 RBI, 162 H, 37 2B, 30 HR, .262 BA, .808 OPS.

Contreras in 11 years is also close: 4.5 WAR, 79 R, 84 RBI, 145 H, 31 2B, 27 HR, .260 BA, .818 OPS.

But Story is 33, Contreras 34. The former was good last year; the latter is good this year. Players go through ups and downs. Bichette is only 28... and not a prospect, but a proven hitter in the big leagues.

 

 

 

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No, but it's the type of deal which would push me into sell mode.  But not happening.  Tolle maybe.

IF you are saying that you are on the fence about selling, but would jump on this because too good to pass up - agreed.  Just want to amke sure i am understanding you correctly.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'll take Bichette and here are my stats why:

his 8-year 162-game averages of 4 WAR, 94 R, 94 RBI, 193 H, 39 2B, 24 HR, .290 BA, .793 OPS.

The Red Sox really need a couple more guys with such numbers.

Story in 11 years is most similar: 5.1 WAR, 94 R, 96 RBI, 162 H, 37 2B, 30 HR, .262 BA, .808 OPS.

Contreras in 11 years is also close: 4.5 WAR, 79 R, 84 RBI, 145 H, 31 2B, 27 HR, .260 BA, .818 OPS.

But Story is 33, Contreras 34. The former was good last year; the latter is good this year. Players go through ups and downs. Bichette is only 28... and not a prospect, but a proven hitter in the big leagues.

 

 

 

I’d obviously prefer Adames but Bichette, Lowe would be solid…. My favorite idea with these 3 is that i think it would take very little outside of AAV capital to get them… on these other guys it will take a ton of young assets to get them.. 

[notin]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Do you think we can get sebastian walcott from rangers for sonny gray??

No.  

The Rangers aren’t giving up the guy who would be the number one prospect in baseball just because of one injury.  

Of course, if he gets injured again next year, all bets are off.  They might think “we’ve seen this story before - best prospect SS gets repeatedly injured. This is Jurickson Profar The Sequel! Sell! Sell!”

But probably not…
 

 

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

No.  

The Rangers aren’t giving up the guy who would be the number one prospect in baseball just because of one injury.  

Of course, if he gets injured again next year, all bets are off.  They might think “we’ve seen this story before - best prospect SS gets repeatedly injured. This is Jurickson Profar The Sequel! Sell! Sell!”

But probably not…
 

 

Gray + Chapman?

[notin]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Gray + Chapman?

I doubt they’re moving Walcott just yet.  I don’t think two pitchers in their late 30s changes that.

I hope Breslow asks.  I just don’t think it will work…

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I doubt they’re moving Walcott just yet.  I don’t think two pitchers in their late 30s changes that.

I hope Breslow asks.  I just don’t think it will work…

Okay. What about Aiva Arquette for two pitchers in their late 30s.  Id even throw in a Peppercorn crusted sliced strip steak over a garden salad from Longhorns.

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Okay. What about Aiva Arquette for two pitchers in their late 30s.  Id even throw in a Peppercorn crusted sliced strip steak over a garden salad from Longhorns.

And if they say no, i get to eat the steak salad

[drewski6]

My bad, its a sirloin. The seven pepper steak sirloin salad from longhorns.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

IF you are saying that you are on the fence about selling, but would jump on this because too good to pass up - agreed.  Just want to amke sure i am understanding you correctly.

You understand correctly.  Here is my philosophy:

Every time we win a game, my asking price for tanking goes up.  Every time we lose a game, my tanking price goes down.  Theoretically, almost every contending team has such a number in mind. 

It might also affect how deep in the pool you want to dive.  Today, I'd be happy with another 'okay bat'.  But if we take 12 of the next 18, I might be looking to move some serious prospects.  Or if we win 12-18, and Crochet is coming back on 8/1, I'd be even more aggressive.  A little bit of the butterfly affect.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Gray + Chapman?

No.  I think they will ask for Tolle, and that is certainly understandable.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I’d obviously prefer Adames but Bichette, Lowe would be solid…. My favorite idea with these 3 is that i think it would take very little outside of AAV capital to get them… on these other guys it will take a ton of young assets to get them.. 

I'm not sure why JH will agree to spend like a maniac, now, We were much more hopeful, last winter, and he wouldn't budge.

BLowe and Jeffers should not cost us Arias, Tolle or any other high end prospect. Both are rentals.