A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

The last 3 series on the road have been more entertaining offensively. I’ve had fun watching them. (Twins series I can’t remember being more disgusted w/ Red Sox in my life.)

 

Alas maybe Craig analytics mistake could be he needed to add splits for cold weather hitting. As the weather has warmed so have some bats? My concern is this: Contreras is pacing for a 6.1 WAR season, 4 aforementioned starting pitchers have played great and we are still 8 games under 500. can they keep it up? Will reinforcements be coming soon? 

He has said all along that the bats should heat up when the weather warms up, but shouldn't the opposition's bats warm up as well? Waiting for the summer to have a good offense is a bad way to do it. 

I don't think Contreras is hitting too far above his weight class. He may dip a little, but I don't see him really tanking. He's still adjusting to being a fulltime 1b, so we don't really know how his offense is impacted for better or worse. 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And I've heard Cubs fans complaining about the Cubs signing Bregman.  Funny stuff.

True.

I live with two of them…

[MADSTORK]

Bye bye Breezelow, enjoy the Yale alumni days…

Epstein on the way, book it Dano

[UtahSox]

19 minutes ago, MADSTORK said:

Bye bye Breezelow, enjoy the Yale alumni days…

Epstein on the way, book it Dano

Sure feels that way huh? The propaganda machine has been fired up by ownership. And for Epstein to publicly criticize Beta Breslow tells you he has some bold assurances. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

But all that aside, even the worst Yankee trolls should know better than to blame Breslow for trading Betts.

Even blaming Bloom misses the big picture. (Hell, DD was almost forced to trade Betts- gaps- GASP!)

[Maxbialystock]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

True.

I live with two of them…

His numbers so far ae unimpressive.  They were lousy after he came back from the injury last season.  

[Maxbialystock]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even blaming Bloom misses the big picture. (Hell, DD was almost forced to trade Betts- gaps- GASP!)

I have never blamed management for the loss of Betts.  LA was always going to outbid us and JH was tired of having the highest payroll in MLB, which they had in 2019 when they didn't even make the playoffs.  Thus DD was let go and in came CB from the Rays system.  

Right now the Rays are once again playing great baseball with a ridiculously low payroll, forced on them by having the worst fan base in MLB history.  They hate the Trop and players probably do too.  

And the Sox payroll continues to be mid-range (12th in MLB), which means Breslow can't count on thel support provided to DD and his predecessors.  

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have never blamed management for the loss of Betts.  LA was always going to outbid us and JH was tired of having the highest payroll in MLB, which they had in 2019 when they didn't even make the playoffs.  Thus DD was let go and in came CB from the Rays system.  

Right now the Rays are once again playing great baseball with a ridiculously low payroll, forced on them by having the worst fan base in MLB history.  They hate the Trop and players probably do too.  

And the Sox payroll continues to be mid-range (12th in MLB), which means Breslow can't count on thel support provided to DD and his predecessors.  

 

Had the choice been Betts and not Sale and or Nate, maybe history changes.

[Maxbialystock]

58 minutes ago, MADSTORK said:

Bye bye Breezelow, enjoy the Yale alumni days…

Epstein on the way, book it Dano

I'm not sure.  I've been really po'd at Breslow this season with his focus on pitching and ignorance about hitting, which stinks.

That said, Breslow's payroll is 12th largest in MLB, well below all previous CBO's under John Henry.  I think he went after pitching because that's what he knows best. 

Also, two of his priciest bats, Yoshida, and Story, are leftovers from the CB era.  Plus Anthony and Mayer and Campbell, all studs in the minors, are now struggling with MLB pitching.   Abreu and Rafaela, both from CG era, look good.  Contreras right now is better than Bregman was last year (especially after injury).  

[Maxbialystock]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Had the choice been Betts and not Sale and or Nate, maybe history changes.

Meh,  Mookie just went to a better team with a smarter CBO who also had more money.  

In 6 seasons with the Sox Betts cumulative WAR was 46.  In his first 6 seasons with the Dodgers it was 32--and for a whole bunch more money.  

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

That said, Breslow's payroll is 12th largest in MLB, well below all previous CBO's under John Henry. 

Bloom worked with much lower "new money" constraints and had teams with lower ranked payrolls than Brez.

2022: 12th Bloom ($212M, still some DD carryover)

2023: 11th Bloom ($183M)

________________

2024: 18th Brez at $190M (Bloom carry-over)

2025: 10th ($204M)

2026: 12th ($195)

The AAV numbers better show the amount of new money invested...

2026: 7th $277M

2025: 8th $287M (had Devers)

2024: 9th $256

Significant uptick from '23 to '24

___________________

2023: 10th $255 Bloom

2022: 3rd at $290M (DD residuals.)

[UtahSox]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bloom worked with much lower "new money" constraints and had teams with lower ranked payrolls than Brez.

2022: 12th Bloom ($212M, still some DD carryover)

2023: 11th Bloom ($183M)

________________

2024: 18th Brez at $190M (Bloom carry-over)

2025: 10th ($204M)

2026: 12th ($195)

The AAV numbers better show the amount of new money invested...

2026: 7th $277M

2025: 8th $287M (had Devers)

2024: 9th $256

Significant uptick from '23 to '24

___________________

2023: 10th $255 Bloom

2022: 3rd at $290M (DD residuals.)

12th highest salary: 

1- La Dodgers: 398m    

2- NY Mets: 368m 

3- NY Yankees 308m

4- Tor BlueJays 289m

5- Phi Phillies 286m

6- Atl Braves 254m

7- Hou Astros 237m

8- Chi Cubs 232m

9- SD Padres 209m

10- Det Tigers 207m

11- SF Giants 201m

12- Bos Red Sox 196m

 

[UtahSox]

Just now, UtahSox said:

12th highest salary: 

1- La Dodgers: 398m    

2- NY Mets: 368m 

3- NY Yankees 308m

4- Tor BlueJays 289m

5- Phi Phillies 286m

6- Atl Braves 254m

7- Hou Astros 237m

8- Chi Cubs 232m

9- SD Padres 209m

10- Det Tigers 207m

11- SF Giants 201m

12- Bos Red Sox 196m

 

We also have only the 10th highest committed 2027 salary;

Dodgers 422M (200m more than any other team) 

Mets 222M

Yankees 216m

BlueJays 218m

Phillies 216m

padres 184m

braves 181m

Giants 159m

Astros 141m

Red Sox 138m

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

We also have only the 10th highest committed 2027 salary;

Dodgers 422M (200m more than any other team) 

Mets 222M

Yankees 216m

BlueJays 218m

Phillies 216m

padres 184m

braves 181m

Giants 159m

Astros 141m

Red Sox 138m

 

 

8th in 2028

6th in 2029

3rd in 2030

is an indication of advanced spending. It doesn't mean we will add as much new spending as others.