A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

How many of us mentioned these outcomes over the winter?

Fangraph projection and outcome (so far)

 

.826 Murakami .947 (+121)

.804 Contreras ,894 (+90)

.772 BLowe .904 (+132)

,768 NLowe .912 (+144)

.748 Donovan .839 (+91)

.775 O'Hearn .827 (52)

.727 Arenado .809 (+82)

.647 IKF .766 (+119)

Funny how one GM traded or signed two of these guys.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

897 OPS in May. He'll be fine if he keeps hitting. 

Mar/Apr is historically his worst OPS month. Dude doesn't take his offseason seriously. Then he mashes in May - end of Summer. 

I expect him to revert to his his historical hitting numbers, mostly.  But his career 1st half OPS is higher than his 2nd half.

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No, that happened directly after the John Henry/Devers meeting in KC. I don't know what Devers did, but that was the tipping point for Devers and the franchise. 

Wasn’t that meeting due to his reluctance to move to 1b and cover for an injured teammate?

[moonslav59]

This season seems lower than 2020.

Pitiful.

[iortiz]

Breslow expects a Moneyball A’s comeback moving forward and being looked like a genius. 

[Old Red]

The Red Sox put up a good fight for 56 games, but finally succumbed to being double digits under 500 last night. How about a Bagheads night when the Red Sox come back to the not so friendly Fenway with the first 15,000 fans wearing a bag over their head get an autographed picture of the Three Stooges JH-Sam-and #12 Breslow. The Raffy situation last year, the Cora situation this year, and now the continued playing of sub 500 ball, and this is pretty much a minor league operation now especially with the new manager, and coaches, and probably a laughing stock all around baseball.👏

[jad]

17 hours ago, notin said:

Wasn’t that meeting due to his reluctance to move to 1b and cover for an injured teammate?

Another way of putting that is the version that claimed he was willing to change positions if they were willing to make him their 1B (essentially what SF did), but he wasn't willing to put in the time to learn a new position if it was just to serve as a placeholder for a Mendoza-line hitter.

 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, jad said:

Another way of putting that is the version that claimed he was willing to change positions if they were willing to make him their 1B (essentially what SF did), but he wasn't willing to put in the time to learn a new position if it was just to serve as a placeholder for a Mendoza-line hitter.

 

I have not heard that version.

It doesn’t really agree with his interview on air when asked about moving to first and he flat out said “no.”   No conditions.  Nothing.  Just a flat out refusal accompanied by him saying “do they expect me to learn every position?”

He really did sound like a petulant child still griping about not getting to play 3b anymore, which makes this new version of the story tougher to believe.

This new story feels like a fabrication to clean up Devers’ reputation by piling on to Breslow.  But honestly, even tjis story still makes Devers look like a selfish, petulant child.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox put up a good fight for 56 games, but finally succumbed to being double digits under 500 last night. How about a Bagheads night when the Red Sox come back to the not so friendly Fenway with the first 15,000 fans wearing a bag over their head get an autographed picture of the Three Stooges JH-Sam-and #12 Breslow. The Raffy situation last year, the Cora situation this year, and now the continued playing of sub 500 ball, and this is pretty much a minor league operation now especially with the new manager, and coaches, and probably a laughing stock all around baseball.👏

So a protest that embraces how badly the team is playing?  Or is this supposed to be a promotion for griping fans to still spend money?

If fans want to go with a bag on their head like the old New Orleans Aints fans, go for it.   But bear in mind, you still have to BUY THE TICKET.  It’s like when Americans were smashing Japanese radios in the 1980s as a protest over foreign manufacturers, and Miami columnist Dave Barry pointed out “you still have  to buy the radio and import it.  Japan knows this and their manufacturers are probably making special radios that explode dramatically so as to look good on camera.”

[Bellhorn04]

I'm on board with the "Sell the team!" folks now.  But I also don't think it has a chance of happening.  So I basically have no hope at all.  ☹️

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm on board with the "Sell the team!" folks now.  But I also don't think it has a chance of happening.  So I basically have no hope at all.  ☹️

Not only is there no chance, but even among MLB owners it’s still easier to find folks that spend less than Henry than more…

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Not only is there no chance, but even among MLB owners it’s still easier to find folks that spend less than Henry than more…

It's not just about the spending, not at all.  It's more about the revolving door of CBOs that has made the job unattractive to most, which has led us to Breslow, who is looking more and more like an abject disaster.

[Old Red]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

So a protest that embraces how badly the team is playing?  Or is this supposed to be a promotion for griping fans to still spend money?

If fans want to go with a bag on their head like the old New Orleans Aints fans, go for it.   But bear in mind, you still have to BUY THE TICKET.  It’s like when Americans were smashing Japanese radios in the 1980s as a protest over foreign manufacturers, and Miami columnist Dave Barry pointed out “you still have  to buy the radio and import it.  Japan knows this and their manufacturers are probably making special radios that explode dramatically so as to look good on camera.”

You still have to buy the tickets? Obviously you don’t know much about Fenway. Most fans who go to Fenway on a nightly basis have already bought their tickets way in advance.🙈

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not just about the spending, not at all.  It's more about the revolving door of CBOs that has made the job unattractive to most, which has led us to Breslow, who is looking more and more like an abject disaster.

Agree on that. JH has worn out his welcome, and his usefulness, and those who keep saying be careful what you wish for on a new owner I say be careful what you wish for keeping the old owner.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Not only is there no chance, but even among MLB owners it’s still easier to find folks that spend less than Henry than more…

That's how I see it. Until the next buyer is known, to just unconditionally say "SELL" seems short-sighted.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I have not heard that version.

It doesn’t really agree with his interview on air when asked about moving to first and he flat out said “no.”   No conditions.  Nothing.  Just a flat out refusal accompanied by him saying “do they expect me to learn every position?”

He really did sound like a petulant child still griping about not getting to play 3b anymore, which makes this new version of the story tougher to believe.

This new story feels like a fabrication to clean up Devers’ reputation by piling on to Breslow.  But honestly, even tjis story still makes Devers look like a selfish, petulant child.

Oh no! Piling on BresLOW? I agree 100% that Breslow looked like a petulant child in how he handled the whole Raffy matter, and the whole Cora matter.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it. Until the next buyer is known, to just unconditionally say "SELL" seems short-sighted.

Once again I know you want to say it, so step up to the plate, and repeat after me. Sell The Team, Sell The Team! Sell The Team.

 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it. Until the next buyer is known, to just unconditionally say "SELL" seems short-sighted.

This team is clearly headed in a bad direction.  I'm 70 now, so I am kind of short-sighted LOL.  But as I say, I see little chance of it happening.  It's an expression of hopelessness, you might say.  We did have a good run from 2004 to 2018, though.

 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You still have to buy the tickets? Obviously you don’t know much about Fenway. Most fans who go to Fenway on a nightly basis have already bought their tickets way in advance.🙈

And like most baseball teams, the folks that bought the tickets last December/January are not always the people going to games…

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This team is clearly headed in a bad direction.  I'm 70 now, so I am kind of short-sighted LOL.  But as I say, I see little chance of it happening.  It's an expression of hopelessness, you might say.  We did have a good run from 2004 to 2018, though.

 

The older you get you have less patience IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

And like most baseball teams, the folks that bought the tickets last December/January are not always the people going to games…

Yes, a lot of tickets are re-sold on the secondary market.  But obviously if the team is terrible you're not going to get nearly as much for them.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it. Until the next buyer is known, to just unconditionally say "SELL" seems short-sighted.

Imagine the joy in Boston when Henry finally agrees to sell and the new owner is revealed to be a partnership between Tony Ressler and Tom Dundon.   For those unaware, they two of the cheapest NBA owners that don’t just pinch pennies; they squeeze them so tight Lincoln’s head starts bleeding….

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, a lot of tickets are re-sold on the secondary market.  But obviously if the team is terrible you're not going to get nearly as much for them.

If it’s like Chicago (north side), a lot of the secondary market stuff goes down in March…

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This team is clearly headed in a bad direction.  I'm 70 now, so I am kind of short-sighted LOL.  But as I say, I see little chance of it happening.  It's an expression of hopelessness, you might say.  We did have a good run from 2004 to 2018, though.

We all know spending is everything, and the beef over JH's spending is legit, but over all he's spent more than most teams every year. He's spent more than 2/3 maybe all but 1-2 years. He's spent more than 3/4 over half the seasons he's been at the top. The next guy may or may not come close to this.

On his choices of who will run the show, it's a much bigger mixed bag, and the way he handles the transitions has been a clear disaster. The guy has many faults. He may have gotten lucky with Epstein (9 seasons) and DD (4 seasons.) Manny feel the ring under Ben's watch was lucky, but overall he's had a decent to great leader for about half his time with the Sox. Maybe the next owner could do that well or better- maybe not.

The disfunction since 2019 has been well documented and discussed, and making the playoffs twice in those 7 years has been little solace to Sox Nation. For many of us older fans, 7 years pales to the decades upon decades of incompetent leadership and uncaring to even racist owners, but it just seemed like those years it was more fun to watch. Maybe it was our youth, or maybe it's just more fun watching teams mash and lose vs teams  that can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag.

Our .411 winning % is dangerously close to 2020's .400. When you consider how bad the rest of the AL is, it makes it worse than 2020. To me, what makes this worse is that I felt like we were getting better and had a decent foundation of young players and promising prospects. We seemed like we were just 3-4 key pieces away from being serious contenders. Looking at Contreras, Suarez and Gray, it seems like those were better winter additions than we've seen in a very long time and at least since pre-2019. It seems baffling that we got this much worse.

Many of the suggestions we all had over the winter wouldn't have mattered, either. It seems obvious, now, that the "foundation" was not as good as we thought, and we needed more than we thought we did. It wasn't Cora. It wasn't Devers. It was much more.

Every team has injuries, and living here near Houston, I am witness to an Astros team that blows everyone else away on that front, and yet they keep winning more than us while also losing its best players to free agency year-after-year.

Rolling the dice on new ownership clearly appeals to the vast majority of Sox fans, but doing so vs no doing so both seem like losing or highly suspect choices to me.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Imagine the joy in Boston when Henry finally agrees to sell and the new owner is revealed to be a partnership between Tony Ressler and Tom Dundon.   For those unaware, they two of the cheapest NBA owners that don’t just pinch pennies; they squeeze them so tight Lincoln’s head starts bleeding….

JH is under no obligation to sell to someone committed to winning more than he has been. I know Fred and others think he's a lying sleazebag who does not care about winning, but take a look around at 20 other MLB ownership groups.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Oh no! Piling on BresLOW? I agree 100% that Breslow looked like a petulant child in how he handled the whole Raffy matter, and the whole Cora matter.

I miss Devers, but he should have handled things like an adult.  Cora hasn’t been anything special in years.  Breslow is just another part of a mess of the front office…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I miss Devers, but he should have handled things like an adult.  Cora hasn’t been anything special in years.  Breslow is just another part of a mess of the front office…

Pretty much sums it up.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Not only is there no chance, but even among MLB owners it’s still easier to find folks that spend less than Henry than more…

given the Red Sox revenue one would hope so.  Spending smartly now that's a different story but by all means keep going on and defending JH. You are pretty much a lone wolf on here.

[Randy Red Sox]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We all know spending is everything, and the beef over JH's spending is legit, but over all he's spent more than most teams every year. He's spent more than 2/3 maybe all but 1-2 years. He's spent more than 3/4 over half the seasons he's been at the top. The next guy may or may not come close to this.

On his choices of who will run the show, it's a much bigger mixed bag, and the way he handles the transitions has been a clear disaster. The guy has many faults. He may have gotten lucky with Epstein (9 seasons) and DD (4 seasons.) Manny feel the ring under Ben's watch was lucky, but overall he's had a decent to great leader for about half his time with the Sox. Maybe the next owner could do that well or better- maybe not.

The disfunction since 2019 has been well documented and discussed, and making the playoffs twice in those 7 years has been little solace to Sox Nation. For many of us older fans, 7 years pales to the decades upon decades of incompetent leadership and uncaring to even racist owners, but it just seemed like those years it was more fun to watch. Maybe it was our youth, or maybe it's just more fun watching teams mash and lose vs teams  that can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag.

Our .411 winning % is dangerously close to 2020's .400. When you consider how bad the rest of the AL is, it makes it worse than 2020. To me, what makes this worse is that I felt like we were getting better and had a decent foundation of young players and promising prospects. We seemed like we were just 3-4 key pieces away from being serious contenders. Looking at Contreras, Suarez and Gray, it seems like those were better winter additions than we've seen in a very long time and at least since pre-2019. It seems baffling that we got this much worse.

Many of the suggestions we all had over the winter wouldn't have mattered, either. It seems obvious, now, that the "foundation" was not as good as we thought, and we needed more than we thought we did. It wasn't Cora. It wasn't Devers. It was much more.

Every team has injuries, and living here near Houston, I am witness to an Astros team that blows everyone else away on that front, and yet they keep winning more than us while also losing its best players to free agency year-after-year.

Rolling the dice on new ownership clearly appeals to the vast majority of Sox fans, but doing so vs no doing so both seem like losing or highly suspect choices to me.

and your suggestion on how to fix this mess is.........?

[notin]

58 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and your suggestion on how to fix this mess is.........?

Breslow and Tracy need to.

They can’t keep playing station-to-station baseball.  If you’re going to try to be the Rays, which has been the goal for like 6 years now, you can’t stop at payroll; you need to play the game like them, too.

Right now the Sox have a small market lineup that’s trying to play a big market game…