A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They went from one extreme with the Mookie, and Bogey times to pretty much everyone except that Casas didn’t bite.

They didn't extend Houck or Crawford! 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Dr. Breslowstein and his office full of Igors did the mash a year ago, congratulating themselves for their Campbell creation. But then the monster turned on them and now no one can control him.

We all know the reasons he was demoted a year ago, but every time I see him swing now it looks like he's hurting himself trying to pull the ball in the air. 

Yesterday: tying run on 3rd, winning run on 2nd -- a single could've been enough... but KC tried to kill the ball. I know the minors don't put as much emphasis on winning, but being a walk-off hero can't hurt a guy's chances at getting noticed by a parent club in desperate need of offense.

They don't teach situational hitting anymore. They just teach exit velo and lifting the ball. That's all they know. Kyle Boddy said that it makes for bad baseball, but it's what the analytics guys want so it's what they teach. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They didn't extend Houck or Crawford! 

Or Duran.

Should we extend Tolle, Early and or Bennett?

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They didn't extend Houck or Crawford! 

Yes, but Houck was older  compared to the others, and struggled finding a role. Kut Man was not in the same category to me.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Or Duran.

Should we extend Tolle, Early and or Bennett?

I don’t believe Duran was even considered. Early could be up next.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They didn't extend Houck or Crawford! 

If they did during similar time frames as these others, it would have been during the Bloom era.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Luckily Casas didn’t take their offer.

thank gawd.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not too many people were upset with it at the time. It was considered an under market deal. The problem is that not every prospect works out, you need to give extensions to the guys you're really certain about. This was a guy who had such a broken swing that they had to revamp it a few months later. 

I don't think they needed to do Rafaela or Bello's extension either. 

at the time, i thought it was stupid and completely unneccessary. and like i've said a hundred times before.......i'm not against extensions, i just think they should wait a bit longer.

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t believe Duran was even considered. Early could be up next.

Duran was too old for a l/t extension.

[notin]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

at the time, i thought it was stupid and completely unneccessary. and like i've said a hundred times before.......i'm not against extensions, i just think they should wait a bit longer.

The longer they wait, the pricier they get.  Sure they may never recoup an ROI on Campbell, but his AAV is utility infielder money.  Not exactly risky…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They don't teach situational hitting anymore. They just teach exit velo and lifting the ball. That's all they know. Kyle Boddy said that it makes for bad baseball, but it's what the analytics guys want so it's what they teach. 

There is no reason that one excludes the other.  Everything I've read says pulling the ball in the air pays dividends.  But that probably varies from player to player.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Yes, but Houck was older  compared to the others, and struggled finding a role. Kut Man was not in the same category to me.

I'm just saying it as there were posters on here suggesting that the Sox were failing for not extending them. 

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

at the time, i thought it was stupid and completely unneccessary. and like i've said a hundred times before.......i'm not against extensions, i just think they should wait a bit longer.

Let's look at some players, now:

Early

Tolle

It IS "completely unnecessary" to extend these guys, but waiting risks the price gettin so high JH won't approve an extension or re-sign later...

That's the reasoning behind it- right or wrong.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

The longer they wait, the pricier they get.  Sure they may never recoup an ROI on Campbell, but his AAV is utility infielder money.  Not exactly risky…

The AAV is 7.5M for a guy sitting in AAA. The issue is that you're guaranteeing him 2/30 contract after he's done with his arbitration years. Doesn't seem like this is a guy that would be on track for getting there at the moment. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm just saying it as there were posters on here suggesting that the Sox were failing for not extending them. 

and also Betts, Bogey and ....

I don't remember a loud drum beat for Houck and Crawford, but I'm sure some wanted them extended after they looked good for a while.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's look at some players, now:

Early

Tolle

It IS "completely unnecessary" to extend these guys, but waiting risks the price gettin so high JH won't approve an extension or re-sign later...

That's the reasoning behind it- right or wrong.

If they truly are a pitching pipeline, you don't worry about extending young pitchers who can be prone to career ending injuries. Breslow has also been willing to spend FA dollars on starting pitching. Unless a guy is a front end starter, there probably isn't a demand to extend. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If they truly are a pitching pipeline, you don't worry about extending young pitchers who can be prone to career ending injuries. Breslow has also been willing to spend FA dollars on starting pitching. Unless a guy is a front end starter, there probably isn't a demand to extend. 

Good point, and for those reasons not extending Houck & Crawford didn't happen, either.

[mvp 78]

Tolle has a very high ceiling, but is still a potential relief profile due to the secondaries. Early has been solid, but the underlying metrics could lead us to believe that there will be some regression over the course of this season (4.68 xERA, 13th percentile barrel rate). When one pitch could end a career, I could see why Breslow could be hesitant to extend these two. I'm not sure the bad Bello extension affects it either. 

[moonslav59]

Payroll coming off the books in AAV:

$21M Gray (with $30M mutual option for 2027 and $10M buyout)

$13.3M Chapman (w $13M mutual option and $300K buyout)

$9.1M Sandoval

$7.5M Whitlock (w $10.5M club option and $500K buyout)

$6M IKF

$1M Coulombe

_______________________

After 2027:

$25M Story (with $25M option for 2028 w $5M buyout)

$21.3M Contreras (with $17.5M in 2028 w $7.5M buyout)

$18M Yoshida

Last ARB Houck & Oviedo

________________________

After 2028

Last ARB Duran, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong

________________________

Players under control beyond 2028:

Crochet, Suarez, Anthony, Rafaela, Bello, Campbell

ARBS: Abreu, Narvaez, Slaten, Durbin, Monasterio, Weissert, Moran, Kelly, Eaton

Early, Tolle, Mayer, Bennett, Seigler, Watson, Samaniego plus prospects

 

 

[mvp 78]

I doubt they let Whitlock out of the contract until the last club option is done in '28. Contreras probably stays for '28 too. 

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Or Duran.

Should we extend Tolle, Early and or Bennett?

I'm in the camp that says to take the risk and extend them early.  Either that, or you risk the player pricing himself out of reasonable range.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

and also Betts, Bogey and ....

I don't remember a loud drum beat for Houck and Crawford, but I'm sure some wanted them extended after they looked good for a while.

Bogey was extended.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Bogey was extended.

True, but wasnt it just for one added year?

[Old Red]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Since Cora was fired:

11th in Batting fWAR 

4th in SB

1st in DRS

2nd in OAA/FRV

29th in BS

30th Hard Hit Rate Starting Pitchers (lowest)

It's a team that is playing great defense and has starters that give up weak contact. The hitters still aren't doing much and the bullpen is pretty mediocre at best. Really had to stretch it to find some positives in the numbers. 

Talking a lot of stats on F&M today, and mostly on how low they are in some old time stats. HR, runs, and total bases, which says a lot on why the Red Sox have the current record they have. 29th in total bases per game. Can’t get much worse.

[Kimmi]

I know I've posted this before, and I know how bad Mayer has been against lefties, but I don't think he should be platooned.  He's not going to improve against lefties unless he gets the at bats against them.  (In a very small sample, he has good numbers against LHP so far this year.)

Anthony has been most disappointing this year.

[Kimmi]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Talking a lot of stats on F&M today, and mostly on how low they are in some old time stats. HR, runs, and total bases, which says a lot on why the Red Sox have the current record they have. 29th in total bases per game. Can’t get much worse.

Bright side:  There's nowhere to go but up!

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Bright side:  There's nowhere to go but up!

Line of the day. The Red Sox have been talking about run prevention for the past few years, and they’ve finally accomplished that. The only problem is that it’s their own.