A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is no way HOU trades Yordan. They may actually extend him.

Yordan Alvarez a 30m DH into his 30s and worth EVERY PENNY

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Just for fun, let's call 2.5 fWAR the lowest possible threshold for success.  That requires 7.5 fWAR for 2023-25.  Only 3 players achieved that-Freeman, Altuve, and Springer.  That's poor odds.  And there are three years after that period to consider.  The highest average for those three years is Goldschmidt with a 5.4/3.  No one else exceeded 2.9.

I dont trust WAR to this extent.  Look at Harmony talking up 5'8 Cole overrated young. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

isn't out of the realm of possibility

That's a fair compromise.

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His implication was that a -3 DRS for a UTIL player at one position wasn't a problem at all. He was there as a backup or injury insurance. He said you can live with that deficiency because the player is able to move around the field. Again, if he's a plus at 2B/3B (maybe) then you can ignore him being a slight minus at SS. He's not saying that defense is good at all, just that you can live with it.

You said "it's really bad" which I disagree with for sure. Small sample sized DRS doesn't extrapolate well over 162 games. For example, Rafaela had a -4 DRS due to one or two plays early on. Was that indicative of his defense? Probably not! He's already at a 1 DRS a few weeks later. If DHam played SS fulltime, the additional reps could get him more comfortable to fielding the position such that his -3 may only be a -4 for the full season. That's Xander Bogaerts-esque. Better than Story or Bichette were last season. 

Defensive versatility > defensive excellence.  Im with Joe.  And now we know that Cora got fired because still Breslow is stiff on positions.  HOW DARE YOU PLAY DURBIN AT 3B!!!! Give me a break.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yordan Alvarez a 30m DH into his 30s and worth EVERY PENNY

He won't be good after age 31. Bad contract! No more 2.5 fWAR seasons for him!

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

-3 in 1200 innings is not bad.

-3 in 600-700 is pretty bad.

DHam was -4 in 433 innings at SS for the Sox in 2024. That's a pace of -10 to -12 for a FT SS.

 

I used his career stats.

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Oh i dont think stats translate - even OPS+
 - but I do believe struggling isn’t always just because of new geography.  Stats do convey that struggle.  Plus Theyre facts, while “he’d hit if he were here” is an alternate reality pipe dream.

And I certainly don’t give ex-Sox or players the Sox avoided a pass for their new locations while holding new Red Sox players to a completely different standard. 
 

Some injuries are probably inevitable regardless of geography.  We call them elbow injuries…

I mean to put is simply, I believe in the butterfly effect and like Devers not hitting since the SF trade, I dont think that justifies the trade (just an example).  Ill watch anything that Amy Smart is in.  Well , 10-15 yrs ago Amy Smart.  

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

I don't find it that unusual.  A lot of hot streaks start with one good batted ball.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't find it that unusual.  A lot of hot streaks start with one good batted ball.

I think you're misreading the post. "A weird batted ball start" was to mean that he started off with a very low line drive rate, but that it was expected that he'd end up closer to the mean of 20% by EOY. 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you're misreading the post. "A weird batted ball start" was to mean that he started off with a very low line drive rate, but that it was expected that he'd end up closer to the mean of 20% by EOY. 

A lot of bad luck evening out / law of averages stuff will be used to justify Coras exit :/

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont trust WAR to this extent.  Look at Harmony talking up 5'8 Cole overrated young. 

You can choose other stats.  One of my favorites is PAs.  From 2021-2025, there were only 16 players, aged 33-37, who even had 1,500 PAs (300/year).  Only 6 that averaged 400 PAs.

[JoeBrady]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He won't be good after age 31. Bad contract! No more 2.5 fWAR seasons for him!

Real aging starts at 33.

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think you're misreading the post. "A weird batted ball start" was to mean that he started off with a very low line drive rate, but that it was expected that he'd end up closer to the mean of 20% by EOY. 

I agree completely.  A slow start doesn't mean that much to me.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You can choose other stats.  One of my favorites is PAs.  From 2021-2025, there were only 16 players, aged 33-37, who even had 1,500 PAs (300/year).  Only 6 that averaged 400 PAs.

Im jsut saying that Im shy to assign value/production on a 1:1 with WAR .  To me , that stat doesnt exist (one that can be the be all / end all).

I think WAR is fine but when everyone starts using it to grade contracts and chase efficiency, thats how you wind up with a team that cant hit. Because I dont care what a DH's WAR is.  Yordan Alvarez and a handful of other DHs would change our entire team.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yordan Alvarez a 30m DH into his 30s and worth EVERY PENNY

Agreed, He's a bargain, now.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I used his career stats.

I admit, I did not think he had that many innings at SS, career, when I replied about the -3 number.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Im jsut saying that Im shy to assign value/production on a 1:1 with WAR .  To me , that stat doesnt exist (one that can be the be all / end all).

I think WAR is fine but when everyone starts using it to grade contracts and chase efficiency, thats how you wind up with a team that cant hit. Because I dont care what a DH's WAR is.  Yordan Alvarez and a handful of other DHs would change our entire team.

I have no problem incorporating as many stats as possible.  The bottom line, for me, is the dramatic drop-off.  There is a real good chance that he won't be playing at all at ages 35-37.  There is only one player 2023-2025 ages 35-37, that has a fWAR of >3.0.  No one even averages 1 fWAR/year.  You need to get a ton of return from the first three years to make it worth $101M..

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, He's a bargain, now.

Yordan is a good example of what I am talking about.  He's 28.313.  His contract lasts thru age 31.  There is almost no age-related risk, and you get almost three perfectly prime years.  With Marte (and others), you generally get two prime years, and 3+ years of decline.

This is why a relatively rich team like the LAA haven't been .500 in 11 years.  They added Pujols, Upton, Cozart, Rendon, Hamilton, Wells, etc., at an age where they had no reason to expect much production.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yordan is a good example of what I am talking about.  He's 28.313.  His contract lasts thru age 31.  There is almost no age-related risk, and you get almost three perfectly prime years.  With Marte (and others), you generally get two prime years, and 3+ years of decline.

This is why a relatively rich team like the LAA haven't been .500 in 11 years.  They added Pujols, Upton, Cozart, Rendon, Hamilton, Wells, etc., at an age where they had no reason to expect much production.

Some discussed winter targets and their ages.

CHC: Hoerner turns 29 soon and Matt Shaw 24.

HOU: Paredes is 27 and Matthews is 24.

LAA: Neto is 25 (not sure available)

CIN: Matt McLain turns 27 this August but is at .631 since the start of 2025.

Donovan is 29 and B Lowe is 31, but they did not have many years of control left.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

A lot of bad luck evening out / law of averages stuff will be used to justify Coras exit :/

I can justify firing Cora without using any data from '26. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Real aging starts at 33.

REAL aging starts at 45. 

[oldtimer]

We have slow to terrible starts in 7 of the last 8 years. Whether that was due to insufficient good players caused by owner indifference, poor general manager transition skills or poor coaching is hard to say. It is probably due in part to each of those, but I supported a change of coaching as at least one approach to improve the reslts.. Finding the teaming 8 games below 500 is not a good place to be and we have started the difficult process of digging out. 

If I look at the players this year I would say we are either better or worse at the following positions:

RF  Better 

CF  Better 

LF  Worse but Duran is showing signs of life now he is leading off. Anthony should come along but 4 OF?

!st  Better

2nd Marginally better with Mayer consistently playing and help on the way.

SS  Worse. Slow start both offensively and defensively. Recent signs of improvement. Arias in the hole.

3rd Worse. Good defense but poor offense to date. We shall see.

C   Worse. Navarez with numbers way below his best form

DH About the same. ok hitting but no real power

SP Better A plethora to choose from if we get past the injury bug. Other teams would like our situation.

RP Worse. We are good on top but lack depth to date.

My take is that we have a decent team but the very poor start has put us into a deep hole. Crawing out of that hole will take a major effort. While we are good, it certainly would help to address weak  spots and soon.

 

[jad]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

REAL aging starts at 45. 

You just wait and you'll find out what REAL real aging is.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

We have slow to terrible starts in 7 of the last 8 years.

'25 17-15 (86 win pace)

'24 17-13

'23 15-14

'22 9-13

'21 17-10

'20 12-23

'19 13-17

I'd say 3 out of 8 years were ok starts TBH. Could even say 4 if you want to count '23 since they were under .500 the rest of the way. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, jad said:

You just wait and you'll find out what REAL real aging is.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2024/08/massive-biomolecular-shifts-occur-in-our-40s-and-60s--stanford-m.html

Rather, we undergo two periods of rapid change during our life span, averaging around age 44 and age 60. A paper describing these findings was published in the journal Nature Aging Aug. 14.

"We're not just changing gradually over time; there are some really dramatic changes," said Michael Snyder, PhD, professor of genetics and the study's senior author. "It turns out the mid-40s is a time of dramatic change, as is the early 60s. And that's true no matter what class of molecules you look at."

[Hugh2]

f***....I'm going to 44 in a month.  Time to live it up. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

f***....I'm going to 44 in a month.  Time to live it up. 

Go see your optometrist. 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no problem incorporating as many stats as possible.  The bottom line, for me, is the dramatic drop-off.  There is a real good chance that he won't be playing at all at ages 35-37.  There is only one player 2023-2025 ages 35-37, that has a fWAR of >3.0.  No one even averages 1 fWAR/year.  You need to get a ton of return from the first three years to make it worth $101M..

I dont agree with the max efficiency approach.  It works under flawed assumptions that there will always be a supply of quality available guys to use budget savings.  Now a days, guys are getting locked up and its harder to make use of excess budget, both FA and trade.  In addition, I do not think that all future years should be weighed equally.  I believe in a cyclical approach that contains a phase where long term is prioritized and a distinct phase where a shorter term outlook is used (aka "a window"), when in a window, I think you have to be scared to take on some overall negative value contracts to help in the short term.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

We have slow to terrible starts in 7 of the last 8 years. Whether that was due to insufficient good players caused by owner indifference, poor general manager transition skills or poor coaching is hard to say. It is probably due in part to each of those, but I supported a change of coaching as at least one approach to improve the reslts.. Finding the teaming 8 games below 500 is not a good place to be and we have started the difficult process of digging out. 

If I look at the players this year I would say we are either better or worse at the following positions:

RF  Better 

CF  Better 

LF  Worse but Duran is showing signs of life now he is leading off. Anthony should come along but 4 OF?

!st  Better

2nd Marginally better with Mayer consistently playing and help on the way.

SS  Worse. Slow start both offensively and defensively. Recent signs of improvement. Arias in the hole.

3rd Worse. Good defense but poor offense to date. We shall see.

C   Worse. Navarez with numbers way below his best form

DH About the same. ok hitting but no real power

SP Better A plethora to choose from if we get past the injury bug. Other teams would like our situation.

RP Worse. We are good on top but lack depth to date.

My take is that we have a decent team but the very poor start has put us into a deep hole. Crawing out of that hole will take a major effort. While we are good, it certainly would help to address weak  spots and soon.

 

Catcher OPS has gone from .653 to .642.

Yes, Narvaez has dipped, but Wong's rise has almost erased that.

I'd call Catcher even.

SP looks better by names but not  by results.

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some discussed winter targets and their ages.

CHC: Hoerner turns 29 soon and Matt Shaw 24.

HOU: Paredes is 27 and Matthews is 24.

LAA: Neto is 25 (not sure available)

CIN: Matt McLain turns 27 this August but is at .631 since the start of 2025.

Donovan is 29 and B Lowe is 31, but they did not have many years of control left.

 

 

 

Hoerner has already signed an extension.  Matt Shaw is prime trade bait since he’s relegated to a UIF for the next few seasons. Not the best use of a first round pick.  The only reason the Cubs are holding is probably related to having no needs.  Going 18-3 in their last 21 games has erased a few weaknesses.

Neto is not getting  traded.  The Angels’ asking price might be something like Tolle plus Early.  I’m out.

McLain has dropped off significantly since his impressive rookie year.  Hes probably attainable, but does he fix anything?