A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[alsoason]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt JH would pay the Tatis contract (goes to 2034.)

Yeah no doubt, I just threw it out there out of utter frustration with this bunch. I play fantasy baseball so I can track the pitchers for betting purposes but the Red Sox are not alone with players with bizarre stat lines at this point. Tatis is one of them and would fit right in with the Sox with exactly ZERO HR'S to this point, What has happened to Guerreo's power, and Witt another with zero hr's. Henderson with the Orioles not hitting his weight but does have 7 dingers. I am not sure how much the Robot ump is effecting players heads if at all, but it has been a strange month in general in baseball

[alsoason]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Romero will get a look at some point. His k% is much lower this year, but I think they want him to pull the ball more and keep that k% down for more than just a few weeks. His 710 OPS isn't really telling the whole picture, but I think they'll want him to have more on field success before giving him the callup. 

Capra is just a 29 year old journey man. He didn't perform all that well in stints with the White Sox or Brewers last year. He can hit AAA pitching and that's good enough to keep the fans in WOO happy. 

Well Durbin is well on his way to being a journeyman if that. i really do not care who they put at 3b, anybody other than this failed peewee. There was only one Pedroia. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, alsoason said:

Yeah no doubt, I just threw it out there out of utter frustration with this bunch. I play fantasy baseball so I can track the pitchers for betting purposes but the Red Sox are not alone with players with bizarre stat lines at this point. Tatis is one of them and would fit right in with the Sox with exactly ZERO HR'S to this point, What has happened to Guerreo's power, and Witt another with zero hr's. Henderson with the Orioles not hitting his weight but does have 7 dingers. I am not sure how much the Robot ump is effecting players heads if at all, but it has been a strange month in general in baseball

Dont back down, you are right.  Look if you dont want more of the same, enough of the max efficiency talk, WAR/$ model, it has led to this.  "we cant get scwharber becasue then what would we do with Masa?" What about positional alignment! POSITIONAL ALIGNMENT!!!!!

We cant get Seager, we cant get tatis.  We are always destined for this , you see - they tell me.  They are wrong. This was a mess we created by not going after bats.  

Calculate your budget, get the 3 best bats available....see how much is left to plug holes.

The model that Breslow has introduced has spectacularly failed. Throw it out.

[moonslav59]

We shoulda and coulda given up enough to get KMarte or Neto.

Even Paredes or Hoerner would have been better than Durbin/IKF.

Donovan and BLowe were options, too.

To be fair, so were E Suarez and Polanco, who I mentioned, but have sucked, so far.

The great Pete Alonso is now at .700.

[moonslav59]

Some selected player OPS to start 2026...

.335 Refsnyder

.341 Carson Williams (I'm not sure anyone mentioned him, last winter, but he's a SS.)

.436 Bohm

.503 Stott

.508 Keashchall

.516 Ozuna

.522 Rengifo

.532 Polanco

.538 Rooker

.549 J Naylor

.556 Chisholm

.568 E Tovar

.583 McLain

.584 Bichette

.587 Devers

.601 Matthews

.622 Okamoto

.624 Vientos

.629 Semien

______________________

.653 Torres

.664 W Castro

.679 Moncada

.687 Adames

.693 Paredes

.694 KMarte

.698 O'Neill

.699 Alonso, Hoskins & K Tucker

.703 J Baez

.704 Bregman

.710 Betts, Meidroth

.713 Arenado

.719 Swanson

.726 R Lewis

.731 Teoscar H

____________________

I'm not trying to bust anybody for suggesting some of the names above: I suggested several of them, but choosing correctly is not easy as a GM.

Some of the next names were suggested several times, too...

.761 Josh Bell

.765 Seager

.789 Andujar

.810 Neto

.823 T Gray

.836 M Shaw

.847 Schwarber

.849 Kurtz

__________________

.852 Harper

.871 Hoerner

.886 HS Kim

.888 Jeffers

.899 B Lowe

.915 Yandy Diaz

.930 O'Hearn

.955 Donovan

.975 CJ Abram

.981 Max Muncy

.990 Dom Smith

___________________

1.010 Wood

1.054 C Vazquez

1.647 Rushing

[moonslav59]

This is really no fun at all.

[Old Red]

8 GB. 72-64 is the magic number that will get you back to 500. If TW leads the Let’s Go Red Sox cheer maybe they can turn this thing around. Remember also. Masa For Mayor.😀

[notin]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some selected player OPS to start 2026...

.335 Refsnyder

.341 Carson Williams (I'm not sure anyone mentioned him, last winter, but he's a SS.)

.436 Bohm

.503 Stott

.508 Keashchall

.516 Ozuna

.522 Rengifo

.532 Polanco

.538 Rooker

.549 J Naylor

.556 Chisholm

.568 E Tovar

.583 McLain

.584 Bichette

.587 Devers

.601 Matthews

.622 Okamoto

.624 Vientos

.629 Semien

______________________

.653 Torres

.664 W Castro

.679 Moncada

.687 Adames

.693 Paredes

.694 KMarte

.698 O'Neill

.699 Alonso, Hoskins & K Tucker

.703 J Baez

.704 Bregman

.710 Betts, Meidroth

.713 Arenado

.719 Swanson

.726 R Lewis

.731 Teoscar H

____________________

I'm not trying to bust anybody for suggesting some of the names above: I suggested several of them, but choosing correctly is not easy as a GM.

Some of the next names were suggested several times, too...

.761 Josh Bell

.765 Seager

.789 Andujar

.810 Neto

.823 T Gray

.836 M Shaw

.847 Schwarber

.849 Kurtz

__________________

.852 Harper

.871 Hoerner

.886 HS Kim

.888 Jeffers

.899 B Lowe

.915 Yandy Diaz

.930 O'Hearn

.955 Donovan

.975 CJ Abram

.981 Max Muncy

.990 Dom Smith

___________________

1.010 Wood

1.054 C Vazquez

1.647 Rushing

Who knew Tristan Gray was the one that got away? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Who knew Tristan Gray was the one that got away? 

Nobody here, for sure.

[moonslav59]

Alonso talks...

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2026/04/pete-alonso-details-red-sox-free-agent-pursuit-long-conversations-before-orioles-signing.html?utm_campaign=redsox_sf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwY2xjawRZ6hpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeQkfVZk_u-KHlkVym37d526KGEUlws0wV-tNQAJVCRArl4NYlkZ2eHCMXrqI_aem_KxXwjE5JaqVUpCh8Qw9LSQ

[moonslav59]

The Sox now have 3 batters in the .800's, 3 in the 700's, 3 in the 600's and 3 in the 500's.

.849 Wong/ .834 Abreu/ .804 Contreras

.749 Monasterio/ .719 Yoshida/ .705 Rafaela

.686 Anthony/ .661 Mayer/ .604 Narvaez

.549 Duran/ .532 Story/ .531 Durbin

.469 IKF

[moonslav59]

Using this criteria, our SP'ers have this many good starts:

4IP 0-2 ERs

6IP 0-3 ERs

8 IP 0-4 ERs

 

1/1 Tolle

4/5 Early

3/6 Crochet

2/5 Suarez & Gray

1/5 Bello

 

Tolle & Early: 5 of 6. (83%)

Crochet, Suarez & Gray: 7/16 (44%)

Bello: 1/5 (20%)

 

Team: 13/27 (48%)

 

[moonslav59]

Cora and the coaches are out. I wonder if we hire someone of just go with Tracy the rest of 2026.

At least we will see some new coaches.

Gotta wonder if Brez is looking over his shoulder.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/24/2026 at 10:49 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

a loaded question that you can't wait to bash the answer.  Better to simply go with what we have since our record is so good.

My point being is that it is not the outsiders who have made the negative difference.  If Narvaez, Story, Duran and Anthony were hitting like they should, no one would even notice Durbin.  The same with Crochet and Bello.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/24/2026 at 10:59 AM, mvp 78 said:

Even if they added a FA that is currently struggling, there'd be hope that his bat would turn around soon. Right now, the path forward is a little murky. They can do it, but it's still a low ceiling. 

I think there is hope for any of our bats to turn it around.  Gut of the top infield FAs, which contract would you want:

• Bichette -0.3 bWAR .581 OPS
• Bregman 0.6 with a .736
• Alonso 0.4 with a .685
• Suarez -0.1 with a .663

These guys wouldn't move the needle compared to how poorly our own guys have done.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

My point being is that it is not the outsiders who have made the negative difference.  If Narvaez, Story, Duran and Anthony were hitting like they should, no one would even notice Durbin.  The same with Crochet and Bello.

We could be undefeated and Sox fans would still be bashing Durbin or whoever the weakest link is.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think there is hope for any of our bats to turn it around.  Gut of the top infield FAs, which contract would you want:

• Bichette -0.3 bWAR .581 OPS
• Bregman 0.6 with a .736
• Alonso 0.4 with a .685
• Suarez -0.1 with a .663

These guys wouldn't move the needle compared to how poorly our own guys have done.

Yup.

So, to all those who blame Brez for not making "THE MOVE" for a player or two from this list, how would we look now had we signed even 3 of these 4?

Okay, we could say, "At least he tried," but he'd be in worse trouble for spending unwisely, years from now.

Note: I'm not calling out others/everyone, since I mentioned many players that have gotten off to poor starts, too, such as E Suarez, Polanco and mainly KMarte & Paredes.

[UtahSox]

On 4/23/2026 at 8:09 AM, mvp 78 said:

They stole a bunch of bases last year. They built this team with speed and guys who get on base. Why not use that speed? Turn a bb into a 2b? 

Because what good is a stolen base if you can’t string together 2 hits in the same inning?

This team hits well when there is no pressure on, which tells me they are all trying to do too much. That boils down to not trusting your teammates around you. 

We have 4/9 hitting spots on platoon, or excessive tinkering due to roster construction DH- 2B- C- OF in general. This is another reason why I hate Beta Breslow’s roster construction of this team. You have so many guys, in and out of lineup, the pressure to perform to earn more playing time has crippled these guys. Which is especially detrimental to young development guys, and cancerous to the locker room...

 

It’s like Breslow built this whole roster on contingency plans. “Depth for the sake of depth.” Seems like with all of his analytics, he forgot without fail the most important one chemistry/psychology.. 

My belief is that everyone does better when they have a role, even dogs do better when they know their jobs within the pack. Who knows their role on this team? The answer is “Not near enough of them.”

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, we could say, "At least he tried,"

That reminds me of the olde days, when the 'you know who's' would blame Tito for 'not making things happen'.  Like making a bad move, just for the sake of making a move, ever winds up as a positive.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That reminds me of the olde days, when the 'you know who's' would blame Tito for 'not making things happen'.  Like making a bad move, just for the sake of making a move, ever winds up as a positive.

That was precisely what I was thinking about when I wrote that.

These guys are damned if they "try" and damned if they don't.

The same people who wanted 2 from Bichette, Bregman and Alonso want Brez fired. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We could be undefeated and Sox fans would still be bashing Durbin or whoever the weakest link is.

Oh no Bashing! That’s the way it works in Boston, and you crying about isn’t going to change it, or make it stop.😂

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Oh no Bashing! That’s the way it works in Boston, and you crying about isn’t going to change it, or make it stop.😂

I'm not trying to stop it. I've often joined in the bashing.

You are wrong again on my meaning and motivation for this post.

It's not crying. It's not an attempt to stop the bashing.

[moonslav59]

As much as people have question the line-up choices, this kinda points to Anthony batting first as not being the major issue:

OBP 1st Slot

Team: .331

.354 Anthony

.167 Duran

(in 10 PAs, Ceddanne is at .400.)

[jad]

On 4/24/2026 at 4:14 PM, drewski6 said:

Dont back down, you are right.  Look if you dont want more of the same, enough of the max efficiency talk, WAR/$ model, it has led to this.  "we cant get scwharber becasue then what would we do with Masa?" What about positional alignment! POSITIONAL ALIGNMENT!!!!!

We cant get Seager, we cant get tatis.  We are always destined for this , you see - they tell me.  They are wrong. This was a mess we created by not going after bats.  

Calculate your budget, get the 3 best bats available....see how much is left to plug holes.

The model that Breslow has introduced has spectacularly failed. Throw it out.

Apparently not in JH's opinion.

[moonslav59]

Two wins in a row!

We have yet to win 3 straight, this year.

At TOR tomorrow night!

[moonslav59]

Only two teams in the AL are more than 2 games above .500 (NYY & TBR.)

The other 13 teams are within 4.5 games of each other.

The Sox may look s*****, but just about every AL team has major issues & questions.

[notin]

7 hours ago, UtahSox said:

It’s like Breslow built this whole roster on contingency plans. “Depth for the sake of depth.” Seems like with all of his analytics, he forgot without fail the most important one chemistry/psychology.. 

My belief is that everyone does better when they have a role, even dogs do better when they know their jobs within the pack. Who knows their role on this team? The answer is “Not near enough of them.”

How do actual MLB players feel about it?

I would imagine it’s a split.  Very few sweeping generalizations are true for everyone.  Certainly some players like having or knowing their role, but others don’t necessarily have to know or care and just want to play.  
 

So with the players who need it - and never underestimate the superstitions MLB players have - define their role as best as possible.  But it’s very unlikely all of them need it spelled out…

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

How do actual MLB players feel about it?

I would imagine it’s a split.  Very few sweeping generalizations are true for everyone.  Certainly some players like having or knowing their role, but others don’t necessarily have to know or care and just want to play.  
 

So with the players who need it - and never underestimate the superstitions MLB players have - define their role as best as possible.  But it’s very unlikely all of them need it spelled out…

What Sox players had unclear roles by opening day?

Sure, the 5 OF'er/DHs knew something had to give, but Yoshida was the known man out on day one.

Mayer knew 2B, Durbin knew 3B and everyone else was set.

It's hard to argue against Brez adding too much depth, when we've already needed to start, Early & Tolle, and used 13 pitchers out of the pen. Monasterio looked like added fluff depth, but he's outplayed IKF and even some starters. One depth piece many wanted gone was Wong, so is that something Brez just got lucky on, or could he actually know more than we do?

[moonslav59]

It seemed like on opening day, most of us felt we were one big bat away from being a favorite to make the playoffs or even more.

Now, we act like Brez was so dumb leaving 4-5 positions weak or empty.

It's fine being pissed, angry or whatever: I am, too, but if Brez sucks and judging who to get and not get, then so do we.

[mvp 78]