A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

On 4/19/2026 at 11:35 PM, moonslav59 said:

This offense needed more than KMarte, Neto or Paredes/Hoerner.

At this point, it looks like we probably needed Contreras, Schwarber AND Paredes/Hoerner/Neto/KMarte.

I'm not sure that even substituting schwarber's .882 OPS for Yoshida's .889 OPS is that much of an improvement.  Especially if it came at the price of not signing Suarez.

[JoeBrady]

20 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah, he's sucking ass right now, but....it's still early. right? 😂

It's early imo.  You seldom have any sure things, but Duran has a 121/132/116 OPS+ over the past three years.  That's pretty consistent.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's early imo.  You seldom have any sure things, but Duran has a 121/132/116 OPS+ over the past three years.  That's pretty consistent.

He's more consistently doing something dumb to fans while on the field. 

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do Bloom's 13-8 Cards bring you any joy?

Not really.  LOL   That said, unlike most here, I've never had an issue with Bloom.  I just don't like the Cardinals.

I just noticed that the Brewers are in last place in that division with a .571 winning percentage.  Yikes.  It'll be interesting to see how that division plays out over the season.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

1-How did thy drop the ball on not signing him?  You have to put a number on a player and be willing to walk away.

Boy would this be great if it were true.

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This is not my choice of a line-up, but if you believe what someone has done, so far is about what they do going forward, maybe this would be the best hitting line-up:

1. L Yoshida (.477 OBP) DH

2. R Contreras (.404 OBP/.466 SLG) 1B

3. L Abreu (.352/.481) RF

4. R Wong (.385/.500) C

5. L Anthony (.366/.338) LF

6. R Rafaela (.366/.381) CF

7. L Mayer (.258/.291( SS)

8. R Story (.224/.315 w 17 rbi) 2B

9. R Monasterio (.300/.296) 3B

Bench: Duran, Narvaez, Durbin, IKF

I'm not a believer of setting one's line up based on recent production or lack thereof, but I do think it's time to give Anthony a rest from hitting lead off.  

Nothing to do with the line up, but I am really liking what I've seen from Contreras at first base.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not sure that even substituting schwarber's .882 OPS for Yoshida's .889 OPS is that much of an improvement.  Especially if it came at the price of not signing Suarez.

What if it replaced Narvaez (Contreras to Catcher), Masa to 1b

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It's early imo.  You seldom have any sure things, but Duran has a 121/132/116 OPS+ over the past three years.  That's pretty consistent.

But we put too many eggs in the Duran basket by not having enough good hitters

[drewski6]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's more consistently doing something dumb to fans while on the field. 

Its close, uncomfortably close.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, notin said:

But what about Dombrowski’s Phillies at 8-14 with an MLB  worst -42 run differential? 

At least they’re not in last, thanks to the Mets’ 11 game (and counting) losing streak…

As Red Sox fans, we are suffering.  BUT, it could be worse.  

We should remember these records and revisit them at the end of the season.  By 'we', I mean you, Notin.  LOL  I won't remember.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

1-How did thy drop the ball on not signing him?  You have to put a number on a player and be willing to walk away.

2-And while I did not agree on Bregman, I don't see how making him #1 on their list constitutes a failure.  Someone has to be #1 on your list.

I'm glad we didn't pay Bregman, but he was clearly their #1 plan.

My point was two-fold:

1. Had we signed him, he would not have filled the big bat need (first mistake)

2. They missed out getting him and settled on Durbin and a pitching upgrade: mistake #2 on failing to fill the big bat eed.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not sure that even substituting schwarber's .882 OPS for Yoshida's .889 OPS is that much of an improvement. 

I'm sure.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'm not a believer of setting one's line up based on recent production or lack thereof, but I do think it's time to give Anthony a rest from hitting lead off.  

Nothing to do with the line up, but I am really liking what I've seen from Contreras at first base.

I really liked the Willson signing. We just needed another big bat and did not get it.

This isn't just my opinion. The Sox stated that was their goal, too.

[RedneckRedSoxFan]

Well, this is surprising. Durbin's average over the last 7 days is:

avg: .308
obs: .400
slg: .538

https://www.mlb.com/stats/boston-red-sox?timeframe=-6

[jad]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Most are sucking for other teams, so there is that.

1 for 24 Refsnyder w SEA

.631 Verdugo w NYY+ATL

.661 Bregman for CHC

.686 O'Neill w BAL

.739 Bogey w SDP

.761 Devers w SFG (.581 in '26)

Oh wait, you said your "favorite players"

Betts .710 in '26 (.731 '25+'26 and .787 '24-'26)

Are you saying that one can only have, say, Ohtani or Judge as favorites?   Otherwise, one is ....what?  a bad fan? a pink hat? disloyal?  (good thing you don't have kids!). But yes, I'd rather watch Bogey, Devers,  Betts, Kike, Vasquez etc. than Narvaez, Durbin, and ... (who else is on this team?)

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm glad we didn't pay Bregman, but he was clearly their #1 plan.

My point was two-fold:

1. Had we signed him, he would not have filled the big bat need (first mistake)

2. They missed out getting him and settled on Durbin and a pitching upgrade: mistake #2 on failing to fill the big bat eed.

Bregman figured to be a pretty big bat.  And I'd make a decent sized wager that Ranger+Durbin out-performs Bregman.

[JoeBrady]

41 minutes ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

Well, this is surprising. Durbin's average over the last 7 days is:

avg: .308
obs: .400
slg: .538

https://www.mlb.com/stats/boston-red-sox?timeframe=-6

Not just that, but over the past 12 games, the Red Sox have the best record in the ALE,

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Bregman figured to be a pretty big bat.  And I'd make a decent sized wager that Ranger+Durbin out-performs Bregman.

I did not think Bregman was the big bat we needed. I'm glad we didn't get him at even close to what the Cubs paid.

My point was not that it was a mistake from my view. It was a mistake from their view as it was the stated goal for the off season.

Durbin is not a big bat, and IMO, neither was Bregman.

I'd prefer Durbin &  Suarez over Bregman, but we still needed another big bat- somehow-  from somewhere.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

Well, this is surprising. Durbin's average over the last 7 days is:

avg: .308
obs: .400
slg: .538

https://www.mlb.com/stats/boston-red-sox?timeframe=-6

He keeps putting the ball in play. Eventually, it will even out for him. 

[mvp 78]

Anderson demoted to AAA.

Reciprocal 40 man move? 

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He keeps putting the ball in play. Eventually, it will even out for him. 

The only thing he’s grinding is to keep his average above 100. 

[notin]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I'm not a believer of setting one's line up based on recent production or lack thereof, but I do think it's time to give Anthony a rest from hitting lead off.  

Nothing to do with the line up, but I am really liking what I've seen from Contreras at first base.

I agree with 5Gold that Anthony really isn’t a leadoff hitter…

[notin]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anderson demoted to AAA.

Reciprocal 40 man move? 

Casas to the 60 day.  Book it…

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I did not think Bregman was the big bat we needed. I'm glad we didn't get him at even close to what the Cubs paid.

My point was not that it was a mistake from my view. It was a mistake from their view as it was the stated goal for the off season.

Durbin is not a big bat, and IMO, neither was Bregman.

I'd prefer Durbin &  Suarez over Bregman, but we still needed another big bat- somehow-  from somewhere.

And to play where? 
 

Once the Sox acquired Durbin, they had no place left for another batter to start.

Bregman is in the downside of his career.  Boston replaced his OPS+ of 130 with Contreras and his OPS+ of 124.  That’s not the dropoff that’s killing this team.  Especially since Bregman is struggling and Contreras isn’t…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas to the 60 day.  Book it…

He hasn't done ANY baseball activities so even if he started ramping up, he'd wouldn't go over the allotted MiLB time if he started playing in AAA at some point. 

[notin]

15 hours ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

Well, this is surprising. Durbin's average over the last 7 days is:

avg: .308
obs: .400
slg: .538

https://www.mlb.com/stats/boston-red-sox?timeframe=-6

Good, because his struggles have been painful..

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He hasn't done ANY baseball activities 

What the Fire Truck are you taking about?  He’s been playing MLB: The Show non-stop all season…

[mvp 78]

Maybe even a Sandoval or Kutter 60 day? I believe they've both been shut down. 

Watson DFA? 😇

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

What the Fire Truck are you taking about?  He’s been playing MLB: The Show non-stop all season…

I'm sure he's played out hundreds of seasons in his mind this offseason. 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas to the 60 day.  Book it…

Makes sense.

Sandoval or Crawford could (retro) go to 60, too.