A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Kimmi]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I continue to try and stay positive, and I don't believe we are as bad as we are making ourselves look, but man is it getting old feeling the game is over the moment the other team gets a 3-0 lead. 

We aren't as bad as we are making ourselves look.  We will start playing better baseball at some point, hopefully sooner than later.  But I have zero confidence in this team to be able to win a game right now.  Forget about coming back from a 3-run deficit.

On a bright note, our batters only struck out 4 times last night.  That's progress.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Contreras/Suarez/Gray were deals for high quality players. Oviedo was an upside play. Durbin was a musical chairs deal. Brewers were the last team available he could trade with. 

We needed two bats at Willson's level.

Suarez and Gray were better pitcher adds than I expected.

Oviedo and Durbin were okay additions and stabs in the dark, but not getting the second bat while keeping the logjam at OF/DH was the biggest error of the winter, IMO.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We needed two bats at Willson's level.

Suarez and Gray were better pitcher adds than I expected.

Oviedo and Durbin were okay additions and stabs in the dark, but not getting the second bat while keeping the logjam at OF/DH was the biggest error of the winter, IMO.

The top of the order definitely needs that one extra guy. Even having Contreras as the best bat feels a little light. I think he's a great player, but more some of all parts. 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was deadset against Bichette and did not want Bregman at even what we offered.

My FA choices mostly have sucked, so far, too, so I can't brag about that.

Trades were our best options.

Hindsight: B Lowe (Donovan just went on the IL.)

It's not really about specifically Bichette and/or Bregman.  Most of the very extravagant wish lists wouldn't have worked out.  Almost none of the regular outside targets would've made a material difference.

We are where we because our internal guys have greatly under-performed.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

but not getting the second bat while keeping the logjam at OF/DH was the biggest error of the winter,

And who is this second bat that would have made a difference, and at what price?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It does seem that misinformation keeps getting repeated, despite corrections being given.

As bad as Duran has looked, I'd give 5 years for 2 of Paredes, right now.

I'd bet on Duran outperforming Paredes over the remainder of the season.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

but we saw what BLowe and Donovan went for.

Some objected to adding more lefty bats.

[alsoason]

It does no good to dwell in the past, as far as what was done or not done. For better or worse we sat at the table, and now all we can do is hope that somehow they turn around. To me personally they are not the Boston Red Sox anymore and have not been since they let JD. Martinez go, and have YET TO REPLACE his bat in the lineup. The biggest advantage the Red Sox have, they have lost sight of even though it stares at them each day they play at home. This base to base crap SUCKS!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It's not really about specifically Bichette and/or Bregman.  Most of the very extravagant wish lists wouldn't have worked out.  Almost none of the regular outside targets would've made a material difference.

We are where we because our internal guys have greatly under-performed.

I don't disagree. Almost everyone of our returning vets had underperformed, and tweaking an off season move or two would probably mean maybe 1-2 more wins. Even a major tweak like a Neto addition might not have helped much.

Maybe it's easier to point to things we could have changed or done differently than to keep harping on the foundation just not being good enough.

When compared to the returnees, Suarez, Contreras and Gray have done fine. Nobody expected great things from IKF, Oviedo & Durbin.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It's not really about specifically Bichette and/or Bregman.  Most of the very extravagant wish lists wouldn't have worked out.  Almost none of the regular outside targets would've made a material difference.

We are where we because our internal guys have greatly under-performed.

Is it a development issue or an issue just at the MLB level? 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, alsoason said:

It does no good to dwell in the past, as far as what was done or not done. For better or worse we sat at the table, and now all we can do is hope that somehow they turn around. To me personally they are not the Boston Red Sox anymore and have not been since they let JD. Martinez go, and have YET TO REPLACE his bat in the lineup. The biggest advantage the Red Sox have, they have lost sight of even though it stares at them each day they play at home. This base to base crap SUCKS!

Letting JD go wasn't the problem as his bat was ticking down. Letting Schwarber go as he was the logical replacement for JD was the problem.

[Bellhorn04]

Man, this is just a total disaster.  I can't help thinking the Driveline hitting program is a big part of the problem.  I still think it was a dark day when they hired Dillon Lawson, a guy the Yankees canned mid-season.  This team has made a lot of bad decisions since the day they traded Betts.  

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Letting JD go wasn't the problem as his bat was ticking down. Letting Schwarber go as he was the logical replacement for JD was the problem.

It was a mistake, but it was somewhat understandable, and in light of the shifting philosophy on spending that saw us not bring Kimbrel of Kelly back, or replace them in kind, I think we know what the initial problem was that started all this, and also led to the Betts departure the following winter.

The uptick in spending hasn't even got us even with where we were, within the context of how much other teams have upticked their spending patterns.

While teams can and do win with a balanced roster, most win with at least a couple bonafide stars or superstars.

[Bellhorn04]

A 644 OPS and 13 dingers in 24 games.  There are no words to suitably describe how feeble this offense is.  

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Man, this is just a total disaster.  I can't help thinking the Driveline hitting program is a big part of the problem.  I still think it was a dark day when they hired Dillon Lawson, a guy the Yankees canned mid-season.  This team has made a lot of bad decisions since the day they traded Betts.  

Every team uses driveline now. I don't think that's the problem. It's the players. Marcelo never showed he was ready at AAA. Roman never showed he could do anything but hit GB's. Story has stunk since leaving COL. Durbin is the same guy he was last year. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A 644 OPS and 13 dingers in 24 games.  There are no words to suitably describe how feeble this offense is.  

It's what happens when you put all your eggs in the pitching basket. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It was a mistake, but it was somewhat understandable, and in light of the shifting philosophy on spending that saw us not bring Kimbrel of Kelly back, or replace them in kind, I think we know what the initial problem was that started all this, and also led to the Betts departure the following winter.

The uptick in spending hasn't even got us even with where we were, within the context of how much other teams have upticked their spending patterns.

While teams can and do win with a balanced roster, most win with at least a couple bonafide stars or superstars.

It's not the overall spending that's the problem. The problem is that they set a market for each individual player. The player will go out and find a slightly higher contract elsewhere. Sox never stretch themselves to get the guys they want. All those "he's our #1 target" guys just slip through the cracks every offseason. It's embarrassing. Instead of spending $500M, just spend enough on the guys you really want to bring in. 

[Duran Is The Man]

i can't help but wonder what the hell Theo is doing. Henry's bringing him back in hasn't been the help i thought it would be.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox Offense: 

28th wRC+

30th HR

26th R

30th ISO

30th SLG

27th SF

28th OPS

2nd GB%

3rd GIDP

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i can't help but wonder what the hell Theo is doing. Henry's bringing him back in hasn't been the help i thought it would be.

Theo is cashing checks. 

[drewski6]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not the overall spending that's the problem. The problem is that they set a market for each individual player. The player will go out and find a slightly higher contract elsewhere. Sox never stretch themselves to get the guys they want. All those "he's our #1 target" guys just slip through the cracks every offseason. It's embarrassing. Instead of spending $500M, just spend enough on the guys you really want to bring in. 

Right too much value chasing and WAR/$$ and not enough targeting.  Too much settling.  You are on fire this AM. This post that Im responding to is like the forth one Ive read this morning while nodding my head.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

People looking for excuses can point to all the free agents from last winter that have had bad starts and say, "At least we didn't waste all that money."

But by the end of the year, and probably mid-season, most of that top talent will adjust, course correct and win out.

The waste will be spending on guys who weren't good enough and assigning them to a manager who can't help but use them. You knew as soon as Romy went down that IKF -- a benchwarmer whose specialty is defense -- would bat whenever there was a lefty pitcher.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Right too much value chasing and WAR/$$ and not enough targeting.  Too much settling.  You are on fire this AM. This post that Im responding to is like the forth one Ive read this morning while nodding my head.

I'm always on fire. You just typically are packing an extinguisher. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not the overall spending that's the problem. The problem is that they set a market for each individual player. The player will go out and find a slightly higher contract elsewhere. Sox never stretch themselves to get the guys they want. All those "he's our #1 target" guys just slip through the cracks every offseason. It's embarrassing. Instead of spending $500M, just spend enough on the guys you really want to bring in. 

Great point.

I will say that the roster got so bad around 2020, that there was a big need to build up the full 40 man roster and farm system. A couple big stars was not bringing us a ring anytime too soon.

Here is a look at the opening day 2021 roster:

Nate, Houck, Pivetta, Richards, Perez (Sale & ERod on IL)

Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Brice, Valdez (Schreiber & Brasier on IL)

Vazquez, Plawecki, Dalbec, Kike (2B) Bogy, Devers, Cordero, Verdugo (CF) Renfroe, JD, Arroyo & Marwin

AAA had just about nothing very promising, except Duran, Chavis & Downs

It took years for Bloom to build up the farm and 40 man roster depth, and some will argue he did a poor job and or that it took too long, especially after he was allowed to spend a little more (Story, Masa, Richards, kluber, Paxton...)

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

People looking for excuses can point to all the free agents from last winter that have had bad starts and say, "At least we didn't waste all that money."

But by the end of the year, and probably mid-season, most of that top talent will adjust, course correct and win out.

The waste will be spending on guys who weren't good enough and assigning them to a manager who can't help but use them. You knew as soon as Romy went down that IKF -- a benchwarmer whose specialty is defense -- would bat whenever there was a lefty pitcher.

Even if Romy is here, they maybe have one more win. It's just a poorly constructed team. 

[Bellhorn04]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Every team uses driveline now. I don't think that's the problem. It's the players. Marcelo never showed he was ready at AAA. Roman never showed he could do anything but hit GB's. Story has stunk since leaving COL. Durbin is the same guy he was last year. 

A lot of guys are below career averages.  Durbin had a 101 OPS+ last year.  It's 31 this year.  

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Great point.

I will say that the roster got so bad around 2020, that there was a big need to build up the full 40 man roster and farm system. A couple big stars was not bringing us a ring anytime too soon.

Here is a look at the opening day 2021 roster:

Nate, Houck, Pivetta, Richards, Perez (Sale & ERod on IL)

Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Brice, Valdez (Schreiber & Brasier on IL)

Vazquez, Plawecki, Dalbec, Kike (2B) Bogy, Devers, Cordero, Verdugo (CF) Renfroe, JD, Arroyo & Marwin

AAA had just about nothing very promising, except Duran, Chavis & Downs

It took years for Bloom to build up the farm and 40 man roster depth, and some will argue he did a poor job and or that it took too long, especially after he was allowed to spend a little more (Story, Masa, Richards, kluber, Paxton...)

DD didn't care about the bottom of the 40 man or even fielding a AAA team TBH. I think the org is stronger now and don't really have to rely on guys like Jack Lopez if there's an injury. Bloom did a good job, but couldn't get the team over the finish line. I don't know if he was unable to do certain deals because of ownership or because he didn't have the experience. He doesn't seem to have a problem pulling the trigger in STL!

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A lot of guys are below career averages.  Durbin had a 101 OPS+ last year.  It's 31 this year.  

Yeah, but it's still the same swing profile. I think his numbers will get better, but he's not going to provide the power that the Sox needed. Good defense and will reduce the over k% issues, but no pop at all. That's what I mean by "he's the same guy as last year." 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A lot of guys are below career averages.  Durbin had a 101 OPS+ last year.  It's 31 this year.  

The 4 killers:

101>31 Durbin -70

106>51 Story -55

102>58 Narvaez -44

142>99 Anthony -43

Others

-55 IKF

-14 Mayer

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

DD didn't care about the bottom of the 40 man or even fielding a AAA team TBH. I think the org is stronger now and don't really have to rely on guys like Jack Lopez if there's an injury. Bloom did a good job, but couldn't get the team over the finish line. I don't know if he was unable to do certain deals because of ownership or because he didn't have the experience. He doesn't seem to have a problem pulling the trigger in STL!

Mr play it safe was afraid to lose a trade
He got sacked for inactivity
Isnt it ironic?

Its possible he learned and grew.

In hindsight, Blooms biggest problem is he created an 8 year plan in a job that comes with 3-4 yr security.