A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They needed one more hitter. Trying to win every game 3-2 is easier said than done. 

YOURE BLUFFING!!!!!

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

You graded the offseason A-

It was all those gaudy OPS IN spring training.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox can just win 20 games more than they lose the rest of the season, they'll still get to 90 Ws...

... but that's not just winning 20 games (I have to keep reminding myself).

And I admit that early in the offseason I was hoping they'd sign Ranger Suarez... but to fortify the rotation -- not INSTEAD of a bat.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox can just win 20 games more than they lose the rest of the season, they'll still get to 90 Ws...

... but that's not just winning 20 games (I have to keep reminding myself).

And I admit that early in the offseason I was hoping they'd sign Ranger Suarez... but to fortify the rotation -- not INSTEAD of a bat.

Ranger not only replaced Bregman, but Durbin replaced Bregman also. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Oh no! A BIG hole after only 4 games? I know they all count, but geez.

Can you read?

GEEZ!

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox can just win 20 games more than they lose the rest of the season, they'll still get to 90 Ws...

... but that's not just winning 20 games (I have to keep reminding myself).

And I admit that early in the offseason I was hoping they'd sign Ranger Suarez... but to fortify the rotation -- not INSTEAD of a bat.

I think the starting rotation will be fine. I think Durbin will be ok. My concern is that the bullpen should have really been added to AND the OF rotation is still a messy puzzle that doesn't work. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If the Red Sox can just win 20 games more than they lose the rest of the season, they'll still get to 90 Ws...

... but that's not just winning 20 games (I have to keep reminding myself).

And I admit that early in the offseason I was hoping they'd sign Ranger Suarez... but to fortify the rotation -- not INSTEAD of a bat.

I don’t know if their offense will be third in the AL again, but plenty of offenses with elite hitters are struggling.  Through 4 games, the Sox have only scored 11 runs.  But then through the same number of games, the Yankees and Phillies have only scored 14 runs, the Athletics have only scored 11 runs and the Padres have only scored 9.  All of these teams do have those types of elite hitters folks wanted the Sox to add.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee has scored 31 runs.  Washington has scored 31 runs. The Angels have scored 27 runs.  What hitter on any of these teams makes you envious of their lineups?

I know someone is going to miss the point here and say “I don’t care about other teams” while then also using them as a baseline.  
 

It’s 4 games.  Well last year through the first 4 games, the Sox also scored only 11 runs en route to a 89 win postseason appearance.  And that was with Devers still in the lineup…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the starting rotation will be fine. I think Durbin will be ok. My concern is that the bullpen should have really been added to AND the OF rotation is still a messy puzzle that doesn't work. 

Crawford and Sandoval will be "added," soon.

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I think the starting rotation will be fine. I think Durbin will be ok. My concern is that the bullpen should have really been added to AND the OF rotation is still a messy puzzle that doesn't work. 

I think the OF rotation will sort itself out at some point.  But I agree they just ignored the bullpen almost all off-season, with the biggest addition being Ryan Watson, until ST was practically over and they added some leftover ill-prepared table scraps that may or may not help.

I think they could solve this easily by putting Tolle in the bullpen…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the starting rotation will be fine. I think Durbin will be ok. My concern is that the bullpen should have really been added to AND the OF rotation is still a messy puzzle that doesn't work. 

Durbin being ok is fine as long as the rest of the lineup produces, but he won’t put up numbers like all the others that could have been, or mentioned as being in the lineup instead. Raffy, Bregman, Paredes, or Marte, and there was more, but Durbin was a CHEAP option after Bregman went bye bye.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

So many of us knew this, all along.

This year Sox payroll is ranked 6th.  3 of the top 4 salaries are pitchers Crochet, Suarez, and Gray.  Story is the highest paid hitter, which says a bunch.  Next highest hitter in salary is Yoshida, ranked 5th.  Then Contreras 6th and Anthony 7th @ $16M.   

After just 4 games, granted, Story's OPS is .500, Yoshida .500, Contreras .410, and Anthony .585. 

Yankees payroll,  $337M is 3d and Jays, $306 is 5th.  Sox payroll is $264M.  Yankees and Jays are 3-1.  Cheapskate Rays are 2-2.   So are the Orioles.  

Last season the Sox started out 1-4.    

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford and Sandoval will be "added," soon.

Sending Oviedo and Early down? 

[Maxbialystock]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why is it not surprising we are one of two teams who have outscored their opponents but lost more games that we won?

The Rays and Sox are both +1 and 1-2.

That Ms ar +9 and 2-2.

Sox are now -7.  But the Jays, 3-1, are -4.  Cleveland, 3-2, is -7.  Miami is 3-1 at -2.  

Rockies are 1-3 and +6.  

Early season anomalies.  

 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

I think the OF rotation will sort itself out at some point.  But I agree they just ignored the bullpen almost all off-season, with the biggest addition being Ryan Watson, until ST was practically over and they added some leftover ill-prepared table scraps that may or may not help.

I think they could solve this easily by putting Tolle in the bullpen…

"Sort itself out at some point" is just not a great plan in my point. The only way it gets sorted out is injury, bad play or trade. 

I originally wanted Tolle in the pen, but understand why they want to keep Tolle stretched out for the rotation. He's a dynamic arm and is still really learning his secondary pitches. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sending Oviedo and Early down? 

Probably trading or phantom IL for Moran or Watson.

Someone may actually get hurt by the time one is ready.

[moonslav59]

Reportedly, the M's have agreed to pay a prospect (Colt Emerson) $95M before has ever even played one game.

(A record)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not concerned about supposed slow starts from Red Sox batters. I'm more concerned that what you see is what you get. because I've felt that this offense has been overrated since last season.

Elsewhere, Bo Bichette had a slow start -- but you can be sure he'll hit. 

The only thing I'm sure about with Story and Duran is they'll have a lot of swing and miss, Anthony will have a lot of pressure for a 21-year old, and Contreras the big bopper has never hit more than 24 HRs in his decade in the majors.

[drewski6]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"Sort itself out at some point" is just not a great plan in my point. The only way it gets sorted out is injury, bad play or trade. 

I originally wanted Tolle in the pen, but understand why they want to keep Tolle stretched out for the rotation. He's a dynamic arm and is still really learning his secondary pitches. 

Its easier to go from stretched out to pen then it is to go the other way.  Im not making this move *yet*.  But I do realize that after him struggling in AAA with 6 SP already with the big club, that they are going to give Ranger all the chances and Gray a lot of chances...And with 2 potential SP candidates on the horizon....The path to helping this tea in 2026 may be a bp arm and thats significant help.  But I see both sides as well.  If it 1.5 months from now and the SP has settled and bp is blowing games , then i consider it for sure.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not concerned about supposed slow starts from Red Sox batters. I'm more concerned that what you see is what you get. because I've felt that this offense has been overrated since last season.

Elsewhere, Bo Bichette had a slow start -- but you can be sure he'll hit. 

The only thing I'm sure about with Story and Duran is they'll have a lot of swing and miss, Anthony will have a lot of pressure for a 21-year old, and Contreras the big bopper has never hit more than 24 HRs in his decade in the majors.

Thats just completely unfair to Story and Duran.  Good hitters are going to trust their swing decisions, start the swing process earlier, and drive more balls. They will also have more swing and miss.  Duran and Story are not the problem. They are likely, our 2 best players.  This team is going nowhere without either (just like last year).

[drewski6]

Story was carrying this team on his back end of last year, and Duran has been our highest WAR guy multiple years in a row. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably trading or phantom IL for Moran or Watson.

Someone may actually get hurt by the time one is ready.

Kutter Crawford - optioned to AAA

Johan Oviedo - optioned to AAA

Sandoval - sent to the bullpen

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Story was carrying this team on his back end of last year

Is that why his defense was so bad? 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats just completely unfair to Story and Duran.  Good hitters are going to trust their swing decisions, start the swing process earlier, and drive more balls. They will also have more swing and miss.  Duran and Story are not the problem. They are likely, our 2 best players.  This team is going nowhere without either (just like last year).

Trevor Story hasn't been a good hitter since he came to Boston. The last time he had 100 games of being a good hitter was 2019! 7 years ago! 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is that why his defense was so bad? 

Story no doubt wore down at the end of last season. It had been quite a while since he pretty much played a full season.

[bkzwhitestrican]

16 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

You won't be happy if he has a .769 OPS come September

True, but I'll take a .769 OPS while he is slumping!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats just completely unfair to Story and Duran.  Good hitters are going to trust their swing decisions, start the swing process earlier, and drive more balls. They will also have more swing and miss.  Duran and Story are not the problem. They are likely, our 2 best players.  This team is going nowhere without either (just like last year).

Not denying any of this except me being unfair. I didn't say they sucked, but they're not elite, either. Both Story and Duran would be complements to a good batting order, with power and speed to contribute. 

However, this club has lacked star contact hitters for a long time now and Breslow let one leave this winter and didn't replace him.

[notin]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"Sort itself out at some point" is just not a great plan in my point. The only way it gets sorted out is injury, bad play or trade. 

I originally wanted Tolle in the pen, but understand why they want to keep Tolle stretched out for the rotation. He's a dynamic arm and is still really learning his secondary pitches. 

I like the idea of learning those secondary pitches at the MLB level where he gets more short opportunities against actual MLB hitters.  The main flaw is he accrues service time faster this way, but if the Sox continue their policy of extending young players, that might not matter.

There is another more obvious way the OF sorts itself out, which is Cora just uses them the same way everyday, occasionally giving each the occasional off day.  It’s the least complex and most likely plan…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not denying any of this except me being unfair. I didn't say they sucked, but they're not elite, either. Both Story and Duran would be complements to a good batting order, with power and speed to contribute. 

However, this club has lacked star contact hitters for a long time now and Breslow let one leave this winter and didn't replace him.

P.S. -- and fans shouldn't let him forget it, since what we'll be watching won't let us forget it.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trevor Story hasn't been a good hitter since he came to Boston. The last time he had 100 games of being a good hitter was 2019! 7 years ago! 

Story was a tick shy of 30-30 last year and was our hottest hitter in the playoffs.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not denying any of this except me being unfair. I didn't say they sucked, but they're not elite, either. Both Story and Duran would be complements to a good batting order, with power and speed to contribute. 

However, this club has lacked star contact hitters for a long time now and Breslow let one leave this winter and didn't replace him.

When you said the only thing you are confident about them is that there would be swing and miss....I dont think thats fair.  Im confident they will both have a lot of extra base hits, for example.  Im confident that if healthy , they are both 3+ WAR players.  Im confident that they are both very good starters. Agreed, not elite.