A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's almost like we have too much RH'd hitting, now, except none are really great.

Contreras is pretty great. 

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's almost like we have too much RH'd hitting, now, except none are really great.

If you’re talking about great hitting, does handedness matter?  Truly great hitters are rarely shut down by like-sided pitching…

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

"Great" can be an elusive, and expensive, goal.

Mostly elusive, for sure.

[moonslav59]

ST'ing OPS

1.807 Duran

1.563 Contreras

1.262 Delay

1.189 Gasper

1.168 Story

1.106 Durbin

1.027 Rafaela

.982 Eaton

.955 IKF

.910 Ward

.872 Monasterio

.840 Narvaez

.819 McDonough

.792 Castro

.775 Mayer

 

 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Contreras is pretty great. 

He's close.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, notin said:

If you’re talking about great hitting, does handedness matter?  Truly great hitters are rarely shut down by like-sided pitching…

Very true.

Here are few career splits of some Red Sox greats:

.891/.692 Yaz

.898/.761 Boggs

.981/.817 Papi

RHBs

.974/1.060 Manny

.875/.898 Betts

.836/.903 Rice

[mvp 78]

7 days until Opening Day.

[moonslav59]

Wow- just one week to go.

[mvp 78]

 

[notin]

On 3/17/2026 at 5:51 PM, moonslav59 said:

Very true.

Here are few career splits of some Red Sox greats:

.891/.692 Yaz

.898/.761 Boggs

.981/.817 Papi

RHBs

.974/1.060 Manny

.875/.898 Betts

.836/.903 Rice

And even then, you’re using lifetime numbers.  Safe bet Yaz hit LHP a bit worse those last 7 or 8 years of post-greatness…

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

And even then, you’re using lifetime numbers.  Safe bet Yaz hit LHP a bit worse those last 7 or 8 years of post-greatness…

1967: 1081 vs RHP, 897 vs LHP

Really depended on the year, but he had about a 200ish split that got really ugly at the end ('75, '79 and after). Some years, he was closer to even ('78).

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1967: 1081 vs RHP, 897 vs LHP

Really depended on the year, but he had about a 200ish split that got really ugly at the end ('75, '79 and after). Some years, he was closer to even ('78).

Well, when you play for 23 years you’re probably not the same hitter in year 22 that you were in year 2.

And that sentence doesn’t need the word “probably”…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, when you play for 23 years you’re probably not the same hitter in year 22 that you were in year 2.

And that sentence doesn’t need the word “probably”…

Yeah, he probably should have just retired in 79.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, when you play for 23 years you’re probably not the same hitter in year 22 that you were in year 2.

And that sentence doesn’t need the word “probably”…

Definitely.

[moonslav59]

Yaz must not have been very good vs LHPs for a pretty long time for that final number to be where it was. It wasn't just the end of his career, that perhaps went on for too long.

As you can see, he wasn't very good vs LHPs until 1967, too. He had 6 pretty bad split years to start his career.

1961: .728/.699 

1962: .862/.742

1963: .937/.739

1964: .864/.693

1965: 1.037/.646

1966: .854/.584

________________

1967: 1.081/.897

1968: .978/.773 (The year of the pitcher)

1969: .979/.648

1970: 1.133/.857

1971: .825/.636

1972: .793/.662

1973: .929/.697 (3 years in a row of pretty bad.)

1974: .887/.792 (looks like  blip)

1975: .846/.579

1976: .840/.666

1977: .937/.708

1978: .801/.756

1979: .869/.551

1980: .852/.593

His last 3 seasons were rather small sample sizes:

.781/.292>> .800/.722>>.793/.518

 

 

[mvp 78]

[moonslav59]

MLB.com places the Sox at #9.

1. LAD: have 27% odds to win the World Series, which is a wildly high number, higher than the next three teams combined. On the other hand, that’s also 73% odds of not winning the World Series.

2. SEA: This is the best team they’ve had since 2001, no question. Now they’ve got that proverbial sea monkey off their proverbial sea backs 

3. CHC:  It's very uncomfortable picking this team this high.

4. NYM: The Mets waved goodbye to longtime fan favorites Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and then they didn’t get Kyle Tucker. Say what you will about the Mets, but when they pivot, they pivot hard: Just like that, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert were all here, suddenly, and the Mets' roster made a lot more sense.

5. NYY: The Yankees are not a perfect team. There are some clear flaws. They also still have Aaron Judge and return most of a 94-win team, which, again, is really good, with the promise of Cole’s return.

6. PHI: this rotation is the class of the division and, more to the point, as potentially terrifying in the postseason as ever.

7. TOR: I fully believe this team is going to be really, really good. I mostly just wonder if the power of friendship culture that was so obvious early last season can work again with some notable ins and outs on the roster.

8. DET: I don’t think they’re the eighth-best team in baseball over a whole season. But in a short series? Against those guys? No thanks.

9. BOS: 

It’s good strategy to pick three teams from the same beastly AL East in the first nine picks, right? Right? Surely that doesn’t narrow my odds of finding teams to win it all? So there’s that, but there’s also this: The Red Sox may have the best rotation in baseball, Roman Anthony was already everyone’s “massive superstar turn incoming” pick even before his World Baseball Classic power show, and Garrett Whitlock / Aroldis Chapman are up there for “best 1-2 bullpen duos in the game.”

Sure, I don’t love their infield either, for the most part. But when your biggest problem just might be, “We have too many good outfielders and we don’t know how we’ll find playing time for all of them,” well, that’s hardly a problem at all.

10. BAL, 11 KCR, 12 ATL, 13. MIL, 14 SFG, 15. PIT

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, he probably should have just retired in 79.

It was someone else’s job to make the team over him.  I blame Sam Bowen and Garry Hancock for not being better than a 40 year old man…

[mvp 78]

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, he probably should have just retired in 79.

He had a decent season in '79, then hit .812 in 1980 (in only 105 games.)

It's not easy to quit when you are still going better than most or almost all of the players on your team.

In '79, only Lynn and Rice had more PAs and a higher OPS. Out of the top 9 batters by PAs, Yaz's .796 placed him 5th, but nobody 10th or lower had a higher OPS.

In '80, 4 of the top 9 batters had a higher OPS than Yaz: Rice, Evans, Lynn and Fisk. Yaz had the 5th best OPS out of the top 12 batters by PAs.

Knowing what we know, now, he should have retired after 1980... for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What a beautiful swing.  Everything is level and balanced and there's no wasted movement.  I wonder what Ted Williams would think of Anthony's swing.

[notin]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com places the Sox at #9.

1. LAD: have 27% odds to win the World Series, which is a wildly high number, higher than the next three teams combined. On the other hand, that’s also 73% odds of not winning the World Series.

2. SEA: This is the best team they’ve had since 2001, no question. Now they’ve got that proverbial sea monkey off their proverbial sea backs 

3. CHC:  It's very uncomfortable picking this team this high.

4. NYM: The Mets waved goodbye to longtime fan favorites Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and then they didn’t get Kyle Tucker. Say what you will about the Mets, but when they pivot, they pivot hard: Just like that, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert were all here, suddenly, and the Mets' roster made a lot more sense.

5. NYY: The Yankees are not a perfect team. There are some clear flaws. They also still have Aaron Judge and return most of a 94-win team, which, again, is really good, with the promise of Cole’s return.

6. PHI: this rotation is the class of the division and, more to the point, as potentially terrifying in the postseason as ever.

7. TOR: I fully believe this team is going to be really, really good. I mostly just wonder if the power of friendship culture that was so obvious early last season can work again with some notable ins and outs on the roster.

8. DET: I don’t think they’re the eighth-best team in baseball over a whole season. But in a short series? Against those guys? No thanks.

9. BOS: 

It’s good strategy to pick three teams from the same beastly AL East in the first nine picks, right? Right? Surely that doesn’t narrow my odds of finding teams to win it all? So there’s that, but there’s also this: The Red Sox may have the best rotation in baseball, Roman Anthony was already everyone’s “massive superstar turn incoming” pick even before his World Baseball Classic power show, and Garrett Whitlock / Aroldis Chapman are up there for “best 1-2 bullpen duos in the game.”

Sure, I don’t love their infield either, for the most part. But when your biggest problem just might be, “We have too many good outfielders and we don’t know how we’ll find playing time for all of them,” well, that’s hardly a problem at all.

10. BAL, 11 KCR, 12 ATL, 13. MIL, 14 SFG, 15. PIT

The Mariners win one division level playoff series in 20 plus years and suddenly they’re the class of the American League?

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

The Mariners win one division level playoff series in 20 plus years and suddenly they’re the class of the American League?

Why not?  They've won between 85 and 90 games each of the last 5 years.  That doesn't make them the '27 Yankees, but they've been one of the better teams for a while now.  Obviously their postseason success has been lacking.  

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why not?  They've won between 85 and 90 games each of the last 5 years.  That doesn't make them the '27 Yankees, but they've been one of the better teams for a while now.  Obviously their postseason success has been lacking.  

I think the top 5-6 AL teams are not far from each other.

They all have strong areas and weaker ones.

I like our chances as much as anyone else's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What a beautiful swing.  Everything is level and balanced and there's no wasted movement.  I wonder what Ted Williams would think of Anthony's swing.

"Get a good pitch to hit, and take a slight uppercut swing."

"Oh, and pitchers suck."

[moonslav59]

fangraphs projects these AL total fWAR finishes:

47.9 TOR

47.3 NYY

46.9 SEA

46.0 BOS

44.9 DET & BAL

40.8 HOU, 39.8 TEX, 39.0 TBR, 38.5 KCR

37.3 ATH, 36.7 MN, 34.8 CLE, 29.4 LAA, 27.5 CWS

The project our....

SP'ers at #1 in all of MLB at 18.0 

Pen at #5 (4.2) second to TBR in AL.

2nd in LF at 3.6 w Anthony at 399 PAs & Duran w 252 in LF.

6th in RF (3.2) w Abreu at 511 PAs.

8th in CF (3.7) w Rafaela at 602 PAs.

12th at 1B (2.6)

13th at DH (1.7) w 266 Duran, 161 Masa, 105 Anthony, 84 Contreras, 42 Casas

16th at 3B (2.7) w Durbin 546

They have us sucking at...

2B (26th) at 1.9 (Mayer, Romy, IKF)

SS (26th) at 2.4 (Story)

 

[moonslav59]

One thing that really stands out while looking at the Sox system is the rather large core of young players and very promising prospects. While much of the value is speculative or "potential," it's pretty amazing, to me.

We do have a few key players past prime or near the end of their prime years, but the vast majority are pre-prime or entering peak prime, now.

38 Chapman, 36 Sonny Gray, 36 Coulombe. 33 Story & 33 Contreras

32 Yoshida, 31 Weissert, 30 Suarez & IKF

Peak:

26 Crochet/Abreu/Durbin/Casas, 27 Narvaez, 28 Slaten, 29 Duran/Whitlock/Crawford/Sandoval

Pre-Prime:

23 Early/Mayer/Tolle, Campbell

25 Rafaela

I count at least 12 high quality players in the age 23 to 29 range. (Suarez is 30.)

I did not list prospects like Arias, Witherspoon and others, of which some are nationally ranked.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What a beautiful swing.  Everything is level and balanced and there's no wasted movement.  I wonder what Ted Williams would think of Anthony's swing.

I remember Ted being disappointed in Griffey Jr, saying that, with that swing, he should've done more.  Even though he was a HOF.  I think he'd have liked RA.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I remember Ted being disappointed in Griffey Jr, saying that, with that swing, he should've done more.  Even though he was a HOF.  I think he'd have liked RA.

It's hard keeping my RA expectations in check, and I'm not sure why I should. I guess to prevent a letdown?

I just can't see this not working out very well for the Sox. Not bad for a 79th pick in that draft.

[Nick]

Here's the ultimate question.

Historically, do the right handed hitters have a better split than the left handed hitters? So Yaz was .692 (?) vs left handed pitchers? So Cora would have platooned him?