A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

Is it just me or would “Boomer Talk” be a good name for a cover band playing songs from the ‘60s and ‘70s?

Funny, but never blaspheme the Moody Blues.

[moonslav59]

Duran and Hicks for Paredes and Abreu works on BTV,

AAV:

Duran 7.8 + Hicks 10.3= $18M

Paredes 9.3 + Abreu 5.9= $15M

(We could give $3M to even up the money.)

Years of control:

Duran 3 & Hicks 2

Paredes 2 & Abreu 1

(I'd prefer B King or Sousa to Abreu)

 

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts:

Duran, Yoshida, Sandlin & $10M (saves the Sox over $15M AAV)

for

Brett Baty (pre arb)

We could then afford E Suarez.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Suarez DH

5. L Baty 3B

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF
 

[moonslav59]

To NYM: Duran

To HOU: Pederson

To BOS: Paredes & Baty

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts:

Duran, Yoshida, Sandlin & $10M (saves the Sox over $15M AAV)

for

Brett Baty (pre arb)

We could then afford E Suarez.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Suarez DH

5. L Baty 3B

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF
 

Increase of 1.4 fWAR ish per FanGraphs? Does that make them the favorites in the division? 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Increase of 1.4 fWAR ish per FanGraphs? Does that make them the favorites in the division? 

Gets us closer, but I think not.

I'd like us more than NYY but not TOR, yet.

[moonslav59]

Pitchers in the Sox system acquired by Brez in less than 3 years:

Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Sandoval, Oviedo, Harrison, Early

Chapman, Slaten, Weissert, Sandlin, Hicks, Watson, Moran (Drohan & Song were reacquired)

Bennett, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Holobetz, Soto, Delzine, Samaniego, Cason & more

[Duran Is The Man]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pitchers in the Sox system acquired by Brez in less than 3 years:

Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Sandoval, Oviedo, Harrison, Early

Chapman, Slaten, Weissert, Sandlin, Hicks, Watson, Moran (Drohan & Song were reacquired)

Bennett, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Holobetz, Soto, Delzine, Samaniego, Cason & more

what about hitters?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what about hitters?

Not as much turnover.... by a lot.

[moonslav59]

Everyday players:

DD: Duran, Rafaela, Casas

Bloom: Anthony, Abreu, Story, Mayer, Campbell, Wong, Yoshida, DHam, Sogard, Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Castro, Jo Garcia and others

Brez: Contreras, Narvaez, Romy, Arias, Gonzales, Godbout, Eaton, Azocar, Ramos, Rivas and others

 

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Everyday players:

DD: Duran, Rafaela, Casas

Bloom: Anthony, Abreu, Story, Mayer, Campbell, Wong, Yoshida, DHam, Sogard, Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Castro, Jo Garcia and others

Brez: Contreras, Narvaez, Romy, Arias, Gonzales, Godbout, Eaton, Azocar, Ramos, Rivas and others

 

looks like he's done a good job with the pitching staff -replacing and upgrading as needed.  but not so much with position players.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

looks like he's done a good job with the pitching staff -replacing and upgrading as needed.  but not so much with position players.

I don't see much need to replace our everyday players, except 2B.

Brez improved the C, & 1B.

We got worse at 3B.

[moonslav59]

Can Max Muncy still play good enough 3B defense for his one year of control left?

Would you trade 3 yrs of Duran ($7.8M), Crawford ($2.7M)and Wong plus a Hicks dump ($10.3M.)

for

1 ys of Muncy ($10M x 1) and 6 yrs of D Rushing (pre arb)

We'd knock about $10M off the tax budget, but get just a temporary fix at 3B. The deal would really be about Rushing, but is Catcher really our biggest need?

[moonslav59]

This trade was rejected by BTV, despite all being pretty balanced- numbers wise:

To BOS: Bogaerts (-79) F Fermin (12) J Dryer (7) & $50M from SDP

To LAD: Duran (42) & Wong (0)

To SDP: Rushing (35) Yoshida (-30) Hicks (-18) & $50M to BOS

3 catchers swapped. LAD gets their OF'er. SDP gets the good catcher. The Sox get Bogey for 2B, upgrade back-up C and add a RP'er. Bogey is owed something like $200M/8, but SDP pays $50M and takes $60M in salary from Yoshia + Hicks.

No way this goes down.

[Duran Is The Man]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see much need to replace our everyday players, except 2B.

Brez improved the C, & 1B.

We got worse at 3B.

notice i also said UPGRADING. Eaton, Hamilton and Romy are not upgrades.

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see much need to replace our everyday players, except 2B.

Brez improved the C, & 1B.

We got worse at 3B.

His first big attempt to upgrade 2b (Vaughn Grissom) didn’t work out so well…

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This trade was rejected by BTV, despite all being pretty balanced- numbers wise:

To BOS: Bogaerts (-79) F Fermin (12) J Dryer (7) & $50M from SDP

To LAD: Duran (42) & Wong (0)

To SDP: Rushing (35) Yoshida (-30) Hicks (-18) & $50M to BOS

3 catchers swapped. LAD gets their OF'er. SDP gets the good catcher. The Sox get Bogey for 2B, upgrade back-up C and add a RP'er. Bogey is owed something like $200M/8, but SDP pays $50M and takes $60M in salary from Yoshia + Hicks.

No way this goes down.

The chances of the Padres and Dodgers trading with each other is about the same as the chances of the Bloods and the Crips creating a choir together in order to sing songs about the dangers of littering…

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Can Max Muncy still play good enough 3B defense for his one year of control left?

Would you trade 3 yrs of Duran ($7.8M), Crawford ($2.7M)and Wong plus a Hicks dump ($10.3M.)

for

1 ys of Muncy ($10M x 1) and 6 yrs of D Rushing (pre arb)

We'd knock about $10M off the tax budget, but get just a temporary fix at 3B. The deal would really be about Rushing, but is Catcher really our biggest need?

no way. you're essentially giving up Duran for an unproven catcher that, IMHO, is somewhat overrated.

 

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Can Max Muncy still play good enough 3B defense for his one year of control left?

Would you trade 3 yrs of Duran ($7.8M), Crawford ($2.7M)and Wong plus a Hicks dump ($10.3M.)

for

1 ys of Muncy ($10M x 1) and 6 yrs of D Rushing (pre arb)

We'd knock about $10M off the tax budget, but get just a temporary fix at 3B. The deal would really be about Rushing, but is Catcher really our biggest need?

The Dodgers need for Duran fell apart when they signed Kyle Tucker.  Any deal for Duran would probably require taking back Teoscar Hernandez, which then re-clogs the Sox outfield.,.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

notice i also said UPGRADING. Eaton, Hamilton and Romy are not upgrades.

They may not be downgrades though, either on what we had before Brez, although the one thing Bloom did was upgrade the 40 man roster from the bottom up

Soxprospects.com has this for the EOY 2023 bench:

McGuire vs Wong (C)

Duval & Refsnyder vs Duran/Abreu/Rafaela (4th OF/DH)

Pablo Reyes (Urias was on the IL) vs Romy/DHam/Sogard/Eaton (infield)

Dalbec vs Romy (1B) Casas was on the IL then and will be now- that's a push.

We ended the season with E Valdez at 2B.

Everyday players 2023 EOY vs Projected 2026:

C Wong/McGuire <<< Narvaez/Wong

1B Turner/Casas/Dalbec < Contreras/Casas/Romy

2B EValdez/Reyes/Urias ??? Romy/DHam

SS Story ??? Story

3B Devers >>> Mayer/Eaton/Sogard

LF Verdugo (RF) <<< Anthony/Duran

CF Rafaela < Rafaela

RF Abreu/Duval ??? Abreu

DH Yoshida/Duvall < Duran/Masa/Casas/Romy

You like the 2023 line-up better?

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

The Dodgers need for Duran fell apart when they signed Kyle Tucker.  Any deal for Duran would probably require taking back Teoscar Hernandez, which then re-clogs the Sox outfield.,.

How could I forget the Dodgers signed Tucker?!?!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

no way. you're essentially giving up Duran for an unproven catcher that, IMHO, is somewhat overrated.

 

Well, we do get Muncy and extended salary relief.

I wouldn't do it, either.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/23/2026 at 8:45 AM, Old Red said:

I don’t believe Campbell is penciled in at 2B at this point in time.

HEe might not be pencilled in but iff they don't add an INF he will be given every shot at the job.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

notice i also said UPGRADING. Eaton, Hamilton and Romy are not upgrades.

I must of missed it. How did we improve the C position ??

[moonslav59]

Looking at just offense and just OPS, here are the 2024-2025 numbers for selected 2B/3Bmen:

.913 K Marte (.251 ISO)

.849 Muncy .242

.806 E Suarez .256 (most power/bad D)

.796 Machado .191 (mega contract)

.791 Bregman .191 (signed w Cubs)

.786 Romy .167

.784 B Lowe (already traded) .224

.784 Chisholm ,206

.779 Moncada .201 (just signed)

.769 Vientos .214 (better at 1B, but has power)

.768 Paredes .175 (IMO, ready to bust out)

.766 Donovan ,138 (virtually no power)

.762 Bohm .147

.760 Riley .187 (decent power but available?)

.741 Polanco .188 (already signed for just 2 yrs)

.726 Torres .126 (no power)

.724 Hoerner .098 (no power but plus glove)

.716 Baty .158

.705 R Lewis .181

.705 Bogey .123

,697 Arenado .130 (already traded)

.695 Stott .122

.690 M Shaw .168

.673 Renifo

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I must of missed it. How did we improve the C position ??

Narvaez/Wong (Brez)  > Wong/McGuire (Bloom)

You missed the Narvaez trade?

Are you talking about improvements made, only this winter?

[moonslav59]

I am near certain we add in infielder to the team before opening day, but here is my projection for the 26 man roster:

60 Day IL: Houck

IL: Casas, Crawford & Sandoval

C: Narvaez & Wong

1B: Contreras (Romy)

2B: Romy, DHam

3B: Mayer, Eaton

LF: Anthony (Duran)

CF: Rafaela (Anthony/Duran)

RF: Abreu (Anthony)

DH: Duran, Yoshida (questionable as a back up DH)

SP: Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Oviedo

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaton, Weissert, Hicks, Harrison, Watson, Moran

40 man roster in AAA:

Campbell, Sogard & Bennett in AA

Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin, Kelly, Samaniego

Possible line-up:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Duran DH/ R Romy 2B

4. R Story SS

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Romy 2B/ L Duran DH

7. L Mayer 3B

8, R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

[Larry Cook]

On 1/23/2026 at 2:16 PM, moonslav59 said:

So, basically 14 pitchers that have been in the Sox system from the 2023 through today. (Houck will be on the IL, so he barely counts.)

But looking on the plus side. We have so much more depth across the entire pitching staff at Boston, Worcester and even Portland than I can ever remember!!  
I tip my cap to the tremendous job bres-slow has done building this up!  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

But looking on the plus side. We have so much more depth across the entire pitching staff at Boston, Worcester and even Portland than I can ever remember!!  
I tip my cap to the tremendous job bres-slow has done building this up!  

I wasn't making my point as it being a bad thing. 

Our pitching scouting, development and MLB valuations were horrible before Brez. 

The change looks good, despite the Sale and Preister deals. I'm thrilled with the focus on pitching, and the results have been better, so far.

[Larry Cook]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I wasn't making my point as it being a bad thing. 

Our pitching scouting, development and MLB valuations were horrible before Brez. 

The change looks good, despite the Sale and Preister deals. I'm thrilled with the focus on pitching, and the results have been better, so far.

For all the great things hang’em Chaim did as far as minor league hitting drafting and development and hitting talent acquisition! It still boggles my mind that he did not place any value on defense or quality pitching. 
Instead he chose to claim every reclamation project that hit the waiver wire