A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Assuming either is on the radar at all.

I assume Bregman is the top target, and one that excludes Alonso.  The big downside to Alonso. Is it’s easier to get 75% of his production I for 25% of his price tag (numbers not exact).

 

The trade market might also carry 1b options beyond Alonso, Suarez, Hoskins, Bell, and the confusingly never-mentioned Luis Arraez.  Christian Walker is reportedly and unexcitedly available. As much as no one fantasizes about him, he is a step or two above Abraham Toro.  Yandy Diaz is reportedly available.  Ryan Mountcastle is a non-tender candidate that can be had. MJ Melendez is reportedly available and some say a non-tender possibility.  Spencer Torkelson has fallen from grace. And Thats just a cursory look at the AL…

the even more confusingly never mentioned josh naylor and are we sure Schwarber is worse than Alonso defensively - 2 more options.

But theres a big different between Alonso and 75% of Alonso.  Just like theres a big difference in a .900 OPS  (HOF) and 75% of it (.675)

One gets into the hall, one gets sent back to the minors.  So yes, there are more firstbaseman.  But a .900 OPS bat or close to it is what we after.  Not someone who can plug 1b.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

the even more confusingly never mentioned josh naylor and are we sure Schwarber is worse than Alonso defensively - 2 more options.

But theres a big different between Alonso and 75% of Alonso.  Just like theres a big difference in a .900 OPS  (HOF) and 75% of it (.675)

One gets into the hall, one gets sent back to the minors.  So yes, there are more firstbaseman.  But a .900 OPS bat or close to it is what we after.  Not someone who can plug 1b.

I was thinking the same thing about Schwarber at 1B. Nobody can be worse than Casas, and maybe Kyle is equally as bad as Alonso, or just a little worse on D, but PHI had Harper at 1B, so we didn't see Kyle.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

the even more confusingly never mentioned josh naylor and are we sure Schwarber is worse than Alonso defensively - 2 more options.

But theres a big different between Alonso and 75% of Alonso.  Just like theres a big difference in a .900 OPS  (HOF) and 75% of it (.675)

One gets into the hall, one gets sent back to the minors.  So yes, there are more firstbaseman.  But a .900 OPS bat or close to it is what we after.  Not someone who can plug 1b.

I like Naylor's makeup, but not his swing. If he was a RHB, I'd bring him on. Schwarber has barely played any 1b and it was pretty brutal when we watched it in BOS. 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Assuming either is on the radar at all.

I assume Bregman is the top target, and one that excludes Alonso.  The big downside to Alonso. Is it’s easier to get 75% of his production I for 25% of his price tag (numbers not exact).

If the Sox liked Alonso, they would have made an attempt to sign him last year while they were shopping Casas. I don't think there's any chance they pursue him this offseason regardless of Breggie's status.

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Naylor is out there, too.

Here in HOU, there is talk Paredes is being shopped.

Naylor and Paredes is interesting.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox liked Alonso, they would have made an attempt to sign him last year while they were shopping Casas. I don't think there's any chance they pursue him this offseason regardless of Breggie's status.

If the sox liked naylor they would have traded for him at the deadline.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the sox liked naylor they would have traded for him at the deadline.

Good back and forth from the posters. I love Diaz as a contact bat with pop and Naylor as a talent with attitude, especially if Bregman doesn't return or sign anywhere until it's officially Spring next March 20, 2026 (cough -- Bore Us).

Also, good point about the splitter and old vs new. I remember how frantic the '86 Mets were to beat Houston in the playoffs before they had to face Mike Scott's splitter again, which they knew they couldn't hit.

Eventually, Clemens found a lethal one (he called it Mr. Splitty), and I think Papelbon, when he was basically unhittable as a closer...

... memories fade, but I still recall some of my best moments as an old player at Cranston Stadium...

 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I like Naylor's makeup, but not his swing. If he was a RHB, I'd bring him on. Schwarber has barely played any 1b and it was pretty brutal when we watched it in BOS. 

It's been brutal watching Casas on D, too.

[notin]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

the even more confusingly never mentioned josh naylor and are we sure Schwarber is worse than Alonso defensively - 2 more options.

But theres a big different between Alonso and 75% of Alonso.  Just like theres a big difference in a .900 OPS  (HOF) and 75% of it (.675)

One gets into the hall, one gets sent back to the minors.  So yes, there are more firstbaseman.  But a .900 OPS bat or close to it is what we after.  Not someone who can plug 1b.

Naylor’s pull tendencies and extension talks with Seattle probably eliminate him from consideration.

Try using the 75% properly on non-decimal stats.  For example, Pete Alonso averages 28 Rbat per year and will cost $150mill for 5 years.  If I could get Rhys “Bob”Hoskins (18 Rbat per year, so 64%) for two years $20mill, why pay up for Alonso ?  With Hoskins, I can round out my infield with Bregman.  Sign Alonso and you’re probably limited to Luis Rengifo…

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the sox liked naylor they would have traded for him at the deadline.

They may have tried hard to do it, but SEA offered more.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Naylor’s pull tendencies and extension talks with Seattle probably eliminate him from consideration.

Try using the 75% properly on non-decimal stats.  For example, Pete Alonso averages 28 Rbat per year and will cost $150mill for 5 years.  If I could get Rhys “Bob”Hoskins (18 Rbat per year, so 64%) for two years $20mill, why pay up for Alonso ?  With Hoskins, I can round out my infield with Bregman.  Sign Alonso and you’re probably limited to Luis Rengifo…

Do you think the winter budget can be $45M?

If Alonso goes for $39=0M AAV, we can have $15M for another signing(s.)

If we trade Duran, we may save up to about $7M. Dump some of Hicks or masa could help, too, but we've beaten those horses to death several times over. Campbell could save close to $7M and Rafaela a few as well. These are not salary dumps, as they would bring back talent, but if the talent costless, we could add to the remaining balance and perhaps sign a second big contract.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you think the winter budget can be $45M?

If Alonso goes for $39=0M AAV, we can have $15M for another signing(s.)

If we trade Duran, we may save up to about $7M. Dump some of Hicks or masa could help, too, but we've beaten those horses to death several times over. Campbell could save close to $7M and Rafaela a few as well. These are not salary dumps, as they would bring back talent, but if the talent costless, we could add to the remaining balance and perhaps sign a second big contract.

I’m not throwing a number at the budget, but rather simply assuming lowest total cost for maximum improvement.   I doubt the Sox are able or want to shed many of their salaries.  I doubt they can move Hicks, for example., will be tough to move and the Sox might not even want to. Campbell is someone I don’t think they are eager to move just yet as well. 

To me, I think the best addition at 1b would be Yandy Diaz (1 yr $12mill).  The biggest obstacle is obvious - getting him as he isnt a free agent just yet.  BTV tells me a fair trade is Kyle Harrison, and I would make that deal yesterday but I don’t know if Tampa does. (All my calls to Eric Neander are still unreturned.)  Diaz lacks Alonso’s power, but is a much better overall hitter and  the cost is believed to be 10% total and maybe 40% of the AAV.  To me, that makes the most sense as it leaves more room to add another good bat.  Again - think Bregman or Gleyber Torres instead of Rengifo or similar…

 

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They may have tried hard to do it, but SEA offered more.

We don't know if they even actively pursued Naylor. There aren't reports of it. The only person reporting that the Sox have current interest is INSIDER Jim Bowden. 🤮

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not throwing a number at the budget, but rather simply assuming lowest total cost for maximum improvement.   I doubt the Sox are able or want to shed many of their salaries.  I doubt they can move Hicks, for example., will be tough to move and the Sox might not even want to. Campbell is someone I don’t think they are eager to move just yet as well. 

To me, I think the best addition at 1b would be Yandy Diaz (1 yr $12mill).  The biggest obstacle is obvious - getting him as he isnt a free agent just yet.  BTV tells me a fair trade is Kyle Harrison, and I would make that deal yesterday but I don’t know if Tampa does. (All my calls to Eric Neander are still unreturned.)  Diaz lacks Alonso’s power, but is a much better overall hitter and  the cost is believed to be 10% total and maybe 40% of the AAV.  To me, that makes the most sense as it leaves more room to add another good bat.  Again - think Bregman or Gleyber Torres instead of Rengifo or similar…

There's also a club option for '27 with Yandy. 😍

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

There's also a club option for '27 with Yandy. 😍

Make that call, Breslow!!

 

(He probably did last July.)

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Make that call, Breslow!!

 

(He probably did last July.)

I think we heard there was actual interest in Yandy at the time, but never heard about other 1b options. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good back and forth from the posters. I love Diaz as a contact bat with pop and Naylor as a talent with attitude, especially if Bregman doesn't return or sign anywhere until it's officially Spring next March 20, 2026 (cough -- Bore Us).

Also, good point about the splitter and old vs new. I remember how frantic the '86 Mets were to beat Houston in the playoffs before they had to face Mike Scott's splitter again, which they knew they couldn't hit.

Eventually, Clemens found a lethal one (he called it Mr. Splitty), and I think Papelbon, when he was basically unhittable as a closer...

... memories fade, but I still recall some of my best moments as an old player at Cranston Stadium...

 

Good stuff! Fellow Cranston guy?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Naylor’s pull tendencies and extension talks with Seattle probably eliminate him from consideration.

Try using the 75% properly on non-decimal stats.  For example, Pete Alonso averages 28 Rbat per year and will cost $150mill for 5 years.  If I could get Rhys “Bob”Hoskins (18 Rbat per year, so 64%) for two years $20mill, why pay up for Alonso ?  With Hoskins, I can round out my infield with Bregman.  Sign Alonso and you’re probably limited to Luis Rengifo…

Hoskins finished last year, not on the playoff roster. Understand Vaughn was hot, but he didnt even make it as a backup. Since his 2023 injury, hes been a league average hitter. Hes only getting older, you need more.  For a first baseman you need more.

You are comparing the career averages of a guy (Hoskins) who has not been the guy he was early in his career for the last 3 years.  And is now old.  This is what we've been doing.  Signing guys coming off injury or past their prime to save money and hoping they revert back.  And 25% of an offensive players RBAT is a TON.  Its the difference between elite players and good players.  None of these names are particularly elite, but Alonso is the closest.

You can always make the argument that theres better value than the top of the market names.  And chasing value is why we keep signing old / hurt guys.

End of day, we have very little offense behind RA, and we have no elite or even very good hitters.  You have a chance to add one, but youd rather save the money and go after an old guy, who hasnt been the same in 3 years, to save money?

Just feels like more of the same.

[drewski6]

I need to know why Bregman looked like he was 40 years old when he returned last year through the end of the season (on both sides of the ball) and be comfortable that whatever made him run like Casas through the end of the season is behind him.

Before I prioritize overpaying him in lieu of pursuing an elite bat somehow.

[drewski6]

I dont hate Yandy, Bregman, and a pitcher. I would trade Harrison for Yandy. Im not confident we get Bregman though.  And my concern is we trade Harrison for Yandy, pay him his 12m. Trade Duran for a #2 P making modest money. And then make another small acquisition and quietly let these guys not replace Devers money or Bregman money.

[mvp 78]

Looks like they will be tendering Criswell a contract: 

 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont hate Yandy, Bregman, and a pitcher. I would trade Harrison for Yandy. Im not confident we get Bregman though.  And my concern is we trade Harrison for Yandy, pay him his 12m. Trade Duran for a #2 P making modest money. And then make another small acquisition and quietly let these guys not replace Devers money or Bregman money.

Thats one possibility.  Yandy and Bo Bichette?  Yandy and Gleyber Torres?  Ok not as much fun.

The point is the Sox need two infielders.  If they blow their budget on Alonso, then what? I used Rengifo as the cheap alternative, but we all know it’s more likely to be Hamilton/Romy.  I would much prefer fewer stereotypical 7/8/9 hitters and get two actual bats.  And I think you can get more for less money at 1b than at 2b or 3b…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Looks like they will be tendering Criswell a contract: 

 

#2 starter - SOLVED

Actually he probably (re: definitely) goes to the bullpen…

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

#2 starter - SOLVED

Actually he probably (re: definitely) goes to the bullpen…

At least he's not a LHP.

[moonslav59]

Criswell also has no options, so it's make the 26 on opening day, an IL stint of get rid of him, somehow.

He's been better as a SP'er than a RP'er with the Sox, but it's hard to envision placing him above 8-9 others already on the 40.

'24-'25

SP: 92 IP

79 ERA- (2nd best on team)

4.19 xFIP (6th best)

RP: 25 IP

154 ERA- (Worst among all RP'ers on the Sox w 25+ IP)

5.55 xFIP (worst)

[mvp 78]

At worst, he's injury insurance for the start of the year that they can DFA at the end of ST if they don't need him. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Thats one possibility.  Yandy and Bo Bichette?  Yandy and Gleyber Torres?  Ok not as much fun.

The point is the Sox need two infielders.  If they blow their budget on Alonso, then what? I used Rengifo as the cheap alternative, but we all know it’s more likely to be Hamilton/Romy.  I would much prefer fewer stereotypical 7/8/9 hitters and get two actual bats.  And I think you can get more for less money at 1b than at 2b or 3b…

Not all actual bats are the same, and you cant get an elite bat at 2b,3b for less money than an elite bat DH/1b.

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At worst, he's injury insurance for the start of the year that they can DFA at the end of ST if they don't need him. 

Or sneak* him through waivers.

*might not need very much "sneak"

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’m not throwing a number at the budget, but rather simply assuming lowest total cost for maximum improvement.   I doubt the Sox are able or want to shed many of their salaries.  I doubt they can move Hicks, for example., will be tough to move and the Sox might not even want to. Campbell is someone I don’t think they are eager to move just yet as well. 

To me, I think the best addition at 1b would be Yandy Diaz (1 yr $12mill).  The biggest obstacle is obvious - getting him as he isnt a free agent just yet.  BTV tells me a fair trade is Kyle Harrison, and I would make that deal yesterday but I don’t know if Tampa does. (All my calls to Eric Neander are still unreturned.)  Diaz lacks Alonso’s power, but is a much better overall hitter and  the cost is believed to be 10% total and maybe 40% of the AAV.  To me, that makes the most sense as it leaves more room to add another good bat.  Again - think Bregman or Gleyber Torres instead of Rengifo or similar…

I'm fine with trying to find bargain players that will produce better than what we have, now. I welcome that. I do not see many opportunities to improve on many slots without costing more money or trade capital, but we do have a few.

1B is one, and getting Yandy could be nice, as long as we get a big power bat at 3B/2B or DH. I guess it could be SS (Story to 2B) or Catcher, but those slots are expensive to fill at the star level.

We shall see how we fill the SP2 slot, and if it is by trade, we may add to or subtract from the budget, but I do hope we don't use the budget as a reason not to improve to the best level we can under whatever budget is set or suggested.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Or sneak* him through waivers.

*might not need very much "sneak"

Unless he looks bad in ST'ing, I think he be taken.