A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Out of both sides of their mouth too

"we tried like really really really hard to improve the roster, and we just couldnt get any deals done. We , like the fans, are disappointed.  But at the end of hte day, its about wins and losses, and we think we are going to have more wins than we would have had if the dudes who we tried to sign were signed.  Hold on, I have to go fire the dude who told me that what i just said doesnt make sense.

It can only make sense if all the deals he was working on were MLB players for MLB players. Those aren't normal deadline deals.

[moonslav59]

I really hope we set our sights higher than Hoskins/Naylor/Bell at 1B. If we don't we better get a damn good hitting  3Bman or 2Bman. I'm thinking E Suarez or K Marte types. I'm not sure that even Bregman and Hoskins gets me all that excited, unless we add a very solid #2 SP'er, too.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I really hope we set our sights higher than Hoskins/Naylor/Bell at 1B. If we don't we better get a damn good hitting  3Bman or 2Bman. I'm thinking E Suarez or K Marte types. I'm not sure that even Bregman and Hoskins gets me all that excited, unless we add a very solid #2 SP'er, too.

and your trading for that sp'er so minus duran too.

But yes, replacing raffy and duran and gio with hoskins and "a very solid #2" does appear to be a step backwards. And thats even after i factor in more RA.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

and your trading for that sp'er so minus duran too.

But yes, replacing raffy and duran and gio with hoskins and "a very solid #2" does appear to be a step backwards. And thats even after i factor in more RA.

I really think our needs, though narrow (maybe 3 major additions,) are very significant.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

and your trading for that sp'er so minus duran too.

Yes, I called us "loonies".

The top Sox OPS+ players of 2025- only 100+ listed:

151 Devers (334 PAs) gone in June

140 Anthony (303 PAs) Rookie season

131 Refsnyder (209 PAs) FA

128 Bregman (495 PAs) FA

128 Romy (341 PAs) Outlier season?

121 N Lowe (119 PAs) Probably non tendered

116 Abreu (417 PAs) Platooned in '25

114 Duran (654) Loonies wanna trade him for pitching

105 Eaton (90) Probably not on opening day 26

104 Story (654) 33 years old likely peaked out

100 Narvaez (446) Rookie season

We are losing about 1050 PAs of OPS+ above 121. If we trade Duran, it almost 1750 PA of OPS+ above 114. That's between 25 and 30% of all our PAs and nearly a third the total PAs above 100.

This is the starting point and we need to get better than 2025 on offense.

I've been thinking 2 major additions might be enough, but we likely need 3 out of these 4 slots:

3B, 2B, 1B, DH

Then, we need a dependable, solid #2 SP'er.

[moonslav59]

Sox re-sign Eduardo Rivera, who is Rule 5 eligible....

https://heavy.com/sports/mlb/boston-red-sox/eduardo-rivera-signed/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily Heavy on Red Sox - Heavy Sports&utm_content=Daily Heavy on Red Sox - Heavy Sports+CID_0168952be2e69b80b9f6d22c7cb17db5&utm_source=Campaign Monitor&utm_term=Red Sox Sign 6-Foot-7 237-Pound Hard Throwing Lefty From Puerto Rico

[moonslav59]

Trade suggestion:

To PHI: Jarren Duran ($8M + 2 arbs) & Jordan Hicks ($12M x 2) plus $8M cash

To MIN: Adrian Painter, K Campbell ($7.5M AAV), Dobbins & Sandlin

To BOS: Joe Ryan (2 arbs at $6M + __M?)& Pablo Lopez ($21.8M x 2 but $18.4 tax hit)

Cost to Sox: +$4M (+$1M tax line)

Sign: E Suarez $14M x 3, J Polanco $14M x 3, Refsnyder $3M x 1 & S Matz $3.5M x 2

____________________________

Crochet, Lopez, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval/Harrison/Crawford/ Early/ Tolle/Perales

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Matz, Fitts, Bernardino, Murphy/Kelly/Guerrero/Wink/Criswell

1. L Anthony LF

2. S Polanco 2B

3. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

4. R E Suarez 1B/3B/DH

5. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH/1B

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

 

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I really hope we set our sights higher than Hoskins/Naylor/Bell at 1B. If we don't we better get a damn good hitting  3Bman or 2Bman. I'm thinking E Suarez or K Marte types. I'm not sure that even Bregman and Hoskins gets me all that excited, unless we add a very solid #2 SP'er, too.

Hoskins would ball out at Fenway if you look at his swing profile. It's not a sexy sign, but he'd hit better than Bell or Naylor at Fenway. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hoskins would ball out at Fenway if you look at his swing profile. It's not a sexy sign, but he'd hit better than Bell or Naylor at Fenway. 

I'm not sure this would happen, but the theory looks good.

Pitchers often pitch to the park.

[moonslav59]

Is this maybe the best we can expect from a cheap organization?

$16M x 2 Suarez

$15M x 2 M Kelly

$14M x 3 Hoskins

That's the $45M that might bring us right up to but below the tax line.

 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is this maybe the best we can expect from a cheap organization?

$16M x 2 Suarez

$15M x 2 M Kelly

$14M x 3 Hoskins

That's the $45M that might bring us right up to but below the tax line.

Why won't they go over the CBT this season? I think the goal would be go over this year and reset next at the very least. If you're a postseason team, you need to try to keep the train rolling. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why won't they go over the CBT this season? I think the goal would be go over this year and reset next at the very least. If you're a postseason team, you need to try to keep the train rolling. 

I'm not advocating staying under, but you know why. JH is a stingy SOB.

I thought I remember you saying you thought they "would reset, next year," but maybe I'm wrong.

Either way, when was the last time we went over by a significant amount?

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not advocating staying under, but you know why. JH is a stingy SOB.

I thought I remember you saying you thought they "would reset, next year," but maybe I'm wrong.

Either way, when was the last time we went over by a significant amount?

"Reset next year" meant '27 (go over two years, reset the third). 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

"Reset next year" meant '27 (go over two years, reset the third). 

I'm all for the idea- even going over the second line. To reset, next year, they may need to sign 1-2 players on 1 year deals, but what else is new?

Expiring contracts after 2026 (AAV):

$9.1 Sandoval

$7.5 Whitlock

Arbs:

3 of 3: Houck

3 of 4: Crawford

2 of 3: Duran, Romy, Casas, Wong, Kelly

2 of 4: Bernardino, Winckowski

1st: Abreu, Slaten, Criswell, Weissert, Murphy, DHam

This is not a lot of lost salary or big arb raises projected- maybe Duran's, but Abreu's is year 1.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

"Reset next year" meant '27 (go over two years, reset the third). 

We coulda not gone over, this year, if not for the Hicks deal, but despite what was said, I think SFG insisted on him being taken.

[moonslav59]

If we go up to the 2nd tax line, we'd have close to $65M to spend, but the issue is the long term deals. I'm not sure how many players are looking at '25 Bregman type deals.

Of course, knowing these guys, they's spend $65M on 6 players on $10.7 M deals, not as I suggest on 2-3 players (AAV.)

[Dirtywater433]

I got a random trade thought in my head today. Got to get off my chest. I want Matt McClain and Hunter Greene in the same deal.

Three teamer-

Boston gets Matt McClain and Greene

Arizona gets Bryan Bello

Cincinnati gets Jarren Duran, Kentel Marte, J Garcia (password) or Luis Perales.

Matt McClain plays short stop for the Sox. Gets him to a 4-5 win player.  Story to second base. Trade Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. Have him platoon with Mayer at third base. Good option behind Mayer because of injuries. Reds get 2 top of the order bats. Reds replace their pitching depth after losing  free agents starting pitching this off-season.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why won't they go over the CBT this season? 

Because it’s expensive?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Dirtywater433 said:

I got a random trade thought in my head today. Got to get off my chest. I want Matt McClain and Hunter Greene in the same deal.

Three teamer-

Boston gets Matt McClain and Greene

Arizona gets Bryan Bello

Cincinnati gets Jarren Duran, Kentel Marte, J Garcia (password) or Luis Perales.

Matt McClain plays short stop for the Sox. Gets him to a 4-5 win player.  Story to second base. Trade Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. Have him platoon with Mayer at third base. Good option behind Mayer because of injuries. Reds get 2 top of the order bats. Reds replace their pitching depth after losing  free agents starting pitching this off-season.

Masa for Arenado, yes: Hicks no, unless they chip in $10-15M a year.

I doubt AZ gives up KMarte for Bello. They might want Garcia or Perales, too.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Because it’s expensive?

Yup. Why didn't we go over 2 of every 3 years since 2020?

[Dirtywater433]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Masa for Arenado, yes: Hicks no, unless they chip in $10-15M a year.

I doubt AZ gives up KMarte for Bello. They might want Garcia or Perales, too.

I'd be willing to ship Garcia to Arizona and Perales to Cincinnati. I'd be okay with paying Arenado 3-4 million a year next two years.

I'm pretty sure Arizona wants out of the Marte contract. Probably a good way to get out of it. I think Arizona has a second base prospect close to the majors. Highly regarded. Use that money to get a free agent first baseman leftover from Marte from Arizona's perspective.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Dirtywater433 said:

I'd be willing to ship Garcia to Arizona and Perales to Cincinnati. I'd be okay with paying Arenado 3-4 million a year next two years.

I'm pretty sure Arizona wants out of the Marte contract. Probably a good way to get out of it. I think Arizona has a second base prospect close to the majors. Highly regarded. Use that money to get a free agent first baseman leftover from Marte from Arizona's perspective.

Arenado has a hefty price tag of $30M x 2 on the tax line, according to cots. He's owed $27M in 2026. Hicks is owed $12M x 2 and tax line is $10.2M x 2.

I think the tax line might matter more to JH than actual money.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Because it’s expensive?

For what they bring in, it's not a drop it the bucket.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Arenado has a hefty price tag of $30M x 2 on the tax line, according to cots. He's owed $27M in 2026. Hicks is owed $12M x 2 and tax line is $10.2M x 2.

I think the tax line might matter more to JH than actual money.

Fans need to go back to bullying JH in public again. 

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fans need to go back to bullying JH in public again. 

Got boo'd at hte bruins game at fenway 

[drewski6]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Arenado has a hefty price tag of $30M x 2 on the tax line, according to cots. He's owed $27M in 2026. Hicks is owed $12M x 2 and tax line is $10.2M x 2.

I think the tax line might matter more to JH than actual money.

okay, but you are focusing on his balancing trade not his main trade, which is now adjusted to reflect your observation thta az needs more than just bello for marte

[drewski6]

51 minutes ago, Dirtywater433 said:

I got a random trade thought in my head today. Got to get off my chest. I want Matt McClain and Hunter Greene in the same deal.

Three teamer-

Boston gets Matt McClain and Greene

Arizona gets Bryan Bello

Cincinnati gets Jarren Duran, Kentel Marte, J Garcia (password) or Luis Perales.

Matt McClain plays short stop for the Sox. Gets him to a 4-5 win player.  Story to second base. Trade Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. Have him platoon with Mayer at third base. Good option behind Mayer because of injuries. Reds get 2 top of the order bats. Reds replace their pitching depth after losing  free agents starting pitching this off-season.

I dont hate it for us. Greene is really reallly reallly reallly good and mcclain was really really good in college and that shine has faded but not all the way faded

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Got boo'd at hte bruins game at fenway 

Yup, that's why they extended Raffy.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Arenado has a hefty price tag of $30M x 2 on the tax line, according to cots. He's owed $27M in 2026. Hicks is owed $12M x 2 and tax line is $10.2M x 2.

I think the tax line might matter more to JH than actual money.

I’d rather have both Hicks and Yoshida over what’s left of Arenado.  If they sign Sox need someone to fill in at 3b, Romy Gonzalez is already here and a much better option than Arenado’s waning years…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Dirtywater433 said:

I got a random trade thought in my head today. Got to get off my chest. I want Matt McClain and Hunter Greene in the same deal.

Three teamer-

Boston gets Matt McClain and Greene

Arizona gets Bryan Bello

Cincinnati gets Jarren Duran, Kentel Marte, J Garcia (password) or Luis Perales.

Matt McClain plays short stop for the Sox. Gets him to a 4-5 win player.  Story to second base. Trade Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. Have him platoon with Mayer at third base. Good option behind Mayer because of injuries. Reds get 2 top of the order bats. Reds replace their pitching depth after losing  free agents starting pitching this off-season.

Arizona really takes a hit there.  Marte is worth much more than Bello.

Arenado is worse than internal options.

Greene was speculative (re:clickbait) trade bait posed by a Cincy sportswriter, but I doubt is available at all much in the same way Crochet is not available from Boston…