A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not for Hamilton, but I wouldn't trade Witherspoon for him. Hamilton and one of Sandlin/Clarke/Valera? Sure. Yandy for Justin Gonzales? I'd think about it. 

My personal rankings are also different. I wouldn't trade Fajardo/Godbout/Eyanson/Phillips in a deal for Yandy. 

Clarke?  A top 100 pitching prospect for a $12mill rental /DH? 
 

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

B-R lists Diaz’ most similar hitter as Alex Verdugo (How!?!?!  I don’t get that one, but here we are).

It just comes down to them playing about the same number of total games played TBH. They really aren't similar hitters. Yandy's OPS+ is about 30 points higher, his bb rate is like twice as high and he has like 50% more career HR's than Verdugo. The math of the similarity scores just produces weird results. 

[notin]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I never dropped Witherspoon's name, Go argue with Hugh.

But you can bet the Red Sox will be trading some pitching prospects in any package for talent this winter -- mainly because they now have very few minor league position players who could headline any deals.

I thought you agreed with his assessment of Diaz’ value.  If not, then what are you saying Diaz is worth giving up for in a deal?

I think they can drop a pitcher.  I’d be disappointed in Breslow if he dealt a top 100 pitching prospect like Witherspoon, Clarke, or Tolle, or even Perales for a $12mill rental 1b/DH.

I expect the pitchers already on the 40 man are a greater risk to be traded. My theory is Harrison headlines that list.  Not sure what the Sox think about Tolle…

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not for Hamilton, but I wouldn't trade Witherspoon for him. Hamilton and one of Sandlin/Clarke/Valera? Sure. Yandy for Justin Gonzales? I'd think about it. 

My personal rankings are also different. I wouldn't trade Fajardo/Godbout/Eyanson/Phillips in a deal for Yandy. 

That's probably closer to being realistic, but even then that was my point....because guys like Clarke and Valera offer the upside a team would want.  Hamilton is just a throw in.  He's not moving the needle. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Clarke?  A top 100 pitching prospect for a $12mill rental /DH? 
 

 

I think he shouldn't be ranked that high. Dude didn't throw 40 innings and was barely pitching 3 innings per start when he was out there. Had blister issues and a crazy walk rate. Bullpen arm IMO. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Clarke?  A top 100 pitching prospect for a $12mill rental /DH? 
 

 

Rentals have netted 2 top 100 prospects before, I remember a relief pitcher at the deadline once brought in such. 

[Hugh2]

JFC the line these things go down.  Look Witherspoon was probably too much and a bonehead pick on my part. 

 

See...it's not too hard to admit when someone makes a mistake......like thinking Hamilton has much trade value and gets you Yandy Diaz. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

JFC the line these things go down.  Look Witherspoon was probably too much and a bonehead pick on my part. 

 

See...it's not too hard to admit when someone makes a mistake......like thinking Hamilton has much trade value and gets you Yandy Diaz. 

When we all play fantasy CBO, we all value the players differently. Funny how that works. 

[moonslav59]

Doesn't Casas seem like an obvious match for Diaz?

[notin]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It just comes down to them playing about the same number of total games played TBH. They really aren't similar hitters. Yandy's OPS+ is about 30 points higher, his bb rate is like twice as high and he has like 50% more career HR's than Verdugo. The math of the similarity scores just produces weird results. 

That might be the worst comp I’ve seen on that site.  Usually they also line up the positions better.  Like the most similar hitter to a catcher is rarely a shortstop or an outfielder. 
 

If they had, say Luis Arraez on there, I’d like the match better.  Verdugo just does not hit like Yandy at all, at least not at the Major League level.  (Arraez is better than Diaz, but the difference between the two feels closer than Verdugo-Diaz.)

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Rentals have netted 2 top 100 prospects before, I remember a relief pitcher at the deadline once brought in such. 

Who? That deal is escaping me.

Tanner Scott did fetch an elite one from San Diego.  Thats probably the biggest deal for a reliever I can think of offhand…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

I thought you agreed with his assessment of Diaz’ value.  If not, then what are you saying Diaz is worth giving up for in a deal?

I think they can drop a pitcher.  I’d be disappointed in Breslow if he dealt a top 100 pitching prospect like Witherspoon, Clarke, or Tolle, or even Perales for a $12mill rental 1b/DH.

I expect the pitchers already on the 40 man are a greater risk to be traded. My theory is Harrison headlines that list.  Not sure what the Sox think about Tolle…

I'd say Harrison or Fitts. Criswell might not have much return value. Kelly, Guerrero, Murphy...

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Doesn't Casas seem like an obvious match for Diaz?

If he wasn't injured. If they'll take him, I'm shipping him down. 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

JFC the line these things go down.  Look Witherspoon was probably too much and a bonehead pick on my part. 

 

See...it's not too hard to admit when someone makes a mistake......like thinking Hamilton has much trade value and gets you Yandy Diaz. 

BTV gives them similar value based on projected WAR and projected salary.  No website can tell you whether or not either team will accept the trade,  Those are different things altogether..,

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

That might be the worst comp I’ve seen on that site.  Usually they also line up the positions better.  Like the most similar hitter to a catcher is rarely a shortstop or an outfielder. 
 

If they had, say Luis Arraez on there, I’d like the match better.  Verdugo just does not hit like Yandy at all, at least not at the Major League level.  (Arraez is better than Diaz, but the difference between the two feels closer than Verdugo-Diaz.)

The score doesn't mean anything. It's just for fun. Just look at the calc.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

JFC the line these things go down.  Look Witherspoon was probably too much and a bonehead pick on my part. 

 

See...it's not too hard to admit when someone makes a mistake......like thinking Hamilton has much trade value and gets you Yandy Diaz. 

Don't worry about it. We're all bitter the Sox' season is over, and most of us just want to upgrade so October lasts longer next time. Speculating is what we do, and most don't get off hammering other posters for doing the same thing they do.

Sorry I can't be more specific -- my brain is mush after listening to the end-of-the-year press conference, where Brez just talked a hundred miles a minute for an hour and said nothing but generalities: "We'realwaysopentoallwaystoimprove. Butit'stooearlyonOctober6tospeakaboutplayers'rolesorpositions."

(... then why hold a press conference with questions from the press if you're not going to answer them?)

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say Harrison or Fitts. Criswell might not have much return value. Kelly, Guerrero, Murphy...

Criswell is out of options, which makes for a difficult trade given his fringe talent level. 

I believe soxprospects is projecting him in the Boston 2026 roster, but that’s probably just filling in a blank in the only place they can put him…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Criswell is out of options, which makes for a difficult trade given his fringe talent level. 

I believe soxprospects is projecting him in the Boston 2026 roster, but that’s probably just filling in a blank in the only place they can put him…

He could easily be in the pen to start the season.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

When we all play fantasy CBO, we all value the players differently. Funny how that works. 

I get that, but I try to put myself into the shoes of another G.M.  And it just always gets me how we can take a player, lets say player xyz who is unwanted here and think we can get something better for them, as if that other team wouldn't have the same issue as we do. 

I mean, today we are talking about Hamilton but I think a better example of this is Masataka Yoshida. 

 

[Hugh2]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't worry about it. We're all bitter the Sox' season is over, and most of us just want to upgrade so October lasts longer next time. Speculating is what we do, and most don't get off hammering other posters for doing the same thing they do.

Sorry I can't be more specific -- my brain is mush after listening to the end-of-the-year press conference, where Brez just talked a hundred miles a minute for an hour and said nothing but generalities: "We'realwaysopentoallwaystoimprove. Butit'stooearlyonOctober6tospeakaboutplayers'rolesorpositions."

(... then why hold a press conference with questions from the press if you're not going to answer them?)

Like me hammering NOTIN for using BTV........when I myself have used BTV. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I get that, but I try to put myself into the shoes of another G.M.  And it just always gets me how we can take a player, lets say player xyz who is unwanted here and think we can get something better for them, as if that other team wouldn't have the same issue as we do. 

I mean, today we are talking about Hamilton but I think a better example of this is Masataka Yoshida. 

Masa has value if the Sox are willing to eat a good portion of his contract TBH. Only 2 seasons left. If the Sox pay half of his deal, you can probably find a taker and get a prospect. Or you just trade for someone else's bad contract. Or you just DFA the guy and clear the roster spot! 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Like me hammering NOTIN for using BTV........when I myself have used BTV. 

I stopped looking at BTV once they charged $. 

[notin]

48 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I get that, but I try to put myself into the shoes of another G.M.  And it just always gets me how we can take a player, lets say player xyz who is unwanted here and think we can get something better for them, as if that other team wouldn't have the same issue as we do. 

I mean, today we are talking about Hamilton but I think a better example of this is Masataka Yoshida. 

 

The biggest issue with using BTV isnt the trade value.  Those are largely based on projections by companies like Steamer.  The issue is whether or not both sides actually want the players involved.  
 

For example, Wilyer Abreu has roughly the same value as Dalton Rushing.

Now the Sox were linked to Rushing tjis past deadline.  The Dodgers have Will Smith locked up long term.  And had corner OF issues this past year to the point where they even out Rushing in the OF.  So why not an actual outfielder? 

Would both teams agree to this trade? And both projected to be equal using their performance/salary projection system.  But really, who knows? The Dodgers might now view Pages and Hernandez as corner OF starters.  And Dave Robert’s refuses at times to pigeonhole a player in a position just because he can field it an elite level.  That he has a Gold Glove middle infielder in the OF while his Gold Glove outfielder plays middle infield will always befuddle me…
 

It seems to make sense for both teams.  And the values are right there.  But does either side want this?  Only way to know is ask the CBOs…

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I get that, but I try to put myself into the shoes of another G.M.  And it just always gets me how we can take a player, lets say player xyz who is unwanted here and think we can get something better for them, as if that other team wouldn't have the same issue as we do. 

I mean, today we are talking about Hamilton but I think a better example of this is Masataka Yoshida. 

 

Casas last year was a good example. It was patently clear that we as a fan base valued Casas way higher than opposing GMs.

 

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Casas last year was a good example. It was patently clear that we as a fan base valued Casas way higher than opposing GMs.

 

Well, he's also a 1B which isn't exactly a hot commodity, and he has not lived up to expectations so far.  That's mostly due to him not staying on the field but it is what it is. 

Still, Casas is different because he has a much higher ceiling.  If he gets going, he's going to hit for a lot of power.  If he had just one good healthy season and he hit his value would definitely go up. 

[Hugh2]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

The biggest issue with using BTV isnt the trade value.  Those are largely based on projections by companies like Steamer.  The issue is whether or not both sides actually want the players involved.  
 

For example, Wilyer Abreu has roughly the same value as Dalton Rushing.

Now the Sox were linked to Rushing tjis past deadline.  The Dodgers have Will Smith locked up long term.  And had corner OF issues this past year to the point where they even out Rushing in the OF.  So why not an actual outfielder? 

Would both teams agree to this trade? And both projected to be equal using their performance/salary projection system.  But really, who knows? The Dodgers might now view Pages and Hernandez as corner OF starters.  And Dave Robert’s refuses at times to pigeonhole a player in a position just because he can field it an elite level.  That he has a Gold Glove middle infielder in the OF while his Gold Glove outfielder plays middle infield will always befuddle me…
 

It seems to make sense for both teams.  And the values are right there.  But does either side want this?  Only way to know is ask the CBOs…

Excatly, we plug these names in but we have no ideal what other team needs are or how they evaluate certain players.  BTV might assign a value of 20 to someone where is teams could have them between 0-50 for all we know. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

The biggest issue with using BTV isnt the trade value.  Those are largely based on projections by companies like Steamer.  The issue is whether or not both sides actually want the players involved.  
 

For example, Wilyer Abreu has roughly the same value as Dalton Rushing.

Now the Sox were linked to Rushing tjis past deadline.  The Dodgers have Will Smith locked up long term.  And had corner OF issues this past year to the point where they even out Rushing in the OF.  So why not an actual outfielder? 

Would both teams agree to this trade? And both projected to be equal using their performance/salary projection system.  But really, who knows? The Dodgers might now view Pages and Hernandez as corner OF starters.  And Dave Robert’s refuses at times to pigeonhole a player in a position just because he can field it an elite level.  That he has a Gold Glove middle infielder in the OF while his Gold Glove outfielder plays middle infield will always befuddle me…
 

It seems to make sense for both teams.  And the values are right there.  But does either side want this?  Only way to know is ask the CBOs…

Maybe the best example of this was the Crochet trade -- when Brez supposedly caved and agreed to include Teel to complete the deal (according to either an authentic reporter or an authentic fraud I read somewhere online).

We won't know why Chicago insisted on Teel, especially when they already had a top-ranked catching prospect -- but obviously they preferred another catcher to another shortstop like Mayer...

... which looks justified, since their own top rookie SS was so good he matched Roman Anthony in WAR in the same amount of games this year, and also outhomered him, 21-8.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I stopped looking at BTV once they charged $. 

Yes, that can be a real disincentive.

[notin]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Excatly, we plug these names in but we have no ideal what other team needs are or how they evaluate certain players.  BTV might assign a value of 20 to someone where is teams could have them between 0-50 for all we know. 

Even knowing their needs isnt necessarily enough.  Plenty of teams move “blocked” prospects around to fill roles…

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, that can be a real disincentive.

I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy...