A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

BTV is flawed, there are some teams out there who wouldn’t even put Hamilton on their 40 man.  His value is pretty much as a pinch runner.  

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV is flawed, there are some teams out there who wouldn’t even put Hamilton on their 40 man.  His value is pretty much as a pinch runner.  

Defensive metrics like him a lot. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Defensive metrics like him a lot. 

Catchers don't when he keeps dropping their throws to 2B.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Catchers don't when he keeps dropping their throws to 2B.

🫠

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV is flawed, there are some teams out there who wouldn’t even put Hamilton on their 40 man.  His value is pretty much as a pinch runner.  

He's decent on D, but at 2B only, so the "utility" aspect is not really present.

He might be an okay batter vs RHPs, but his 2025 numbers show otherwise.

.618 v R in 2025 (174 PAs)

.729 in 2024 (267)

We might be surprised that several GMs would want DHam, but I doubt they give a Yandy Diaz type for him, despite his 1 year left at $12M and at age 34.

[Hugh2]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Defensive metrics like him a lot. 

He's fine at 2nd. He's not very good elsewhere so he's not your ideal utility guy, and I'm not sure he can be an everyday 2nd baseman. 

I know he has control, but quantity does not make up for quality.  Hamilton will not move the needle for a guy like Diaz, he's a throw in.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

He's decent on D, but at 2B only, so the "utility" aspect is not really present.

 

We literally just posted the same thing at the same time HAHAHA

[moonslav59]

From 2024 to 2025, Fangraphs has DHam ranked about 30th in fWAR among players where 2B is their "primary position." (500+ PAs)

His 1.8 fWAR in 511 PAs comes to a better fWAR per PA than about 5-7 player above him, making him, by this metric a top 25 2Bman over the past 2 seasons. Of course, that one stretch in 2024 inflates his numbers, and the recency aspect hurts his value, but I do think some GMs would like him on their 40.

The Rays might take DHam & Casas for Yandy, or maybe DHam + Fitts or Criswell & ICampbell.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

We literally just posted the same thing at the same time HAHAHA

True dat!

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He's fine at 2nd. He's not very good elsewhere so he's not your ideal utility guy, and I'm not sure he can be an everyday 2nd baseman. 

I know he has control, but quantity does not make up for quality.  Hamilton will not move the needle for a guy like Diaz, he's a throw in.

I would have traded him last offseason. Sox didn't want to. 

[notin]

13 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Are we both talking about the Yandy Diaz who was one of the seven hitters in all of Major League Baseball with a .300 batting average? The same Yandy who cracked 25 home runs -- as many as any Red Sox player -- but with only a 14.1 K-rate? The Y.Diaz with a higher On Base, Slugging, and thus OPS than any full-season regular in Boston?

If so, I'll tell you what: not only would I give up the invaluable David Hamilton for him, but since we know how Tampa really operates, to complete this deal I will personally throw in a legal slip of currency featuring Alexander Hamilton on it.

Like Tom Cruise's Dad asked while quoting a satisfied college recruiter in Risky Business: "'Princeton can use a guy like Joel?'"

 

The more I look into this, the more I realize Hamilton for Diaz is not as bad as you claim.

Diaz will be 34, make $12mill next season, and averages 3.3 bWAR per 162 games.

Hamilton will be 28, is still pre-arb, excels in speed and defense (at 2b), has 4 years of control left, and averages 2.9 bWAR per 162. (What do you always say about small differences in WAR?)

Yes, Diaz is a better hitter.  But other factors certainly matter.  In no iteration of this pan-dimensional multiverse is Jalen Beeks as good as Nathan Eovaldi, either.

Tampa may or may not accept a deal like this. They may get better offers.  But Hamilton is absolutely a fit for their small ball style. 
 

I can’t speak for Tampa (though I still suspect they prefer Harrison), but this deal isnt as outrageous as it looks at first glance.

But as you brought up Diaz, what do you think is a fair deal? Let’s assume no other team made offers…

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV is flawed, there are some teams out there who wouldn’t even put Hamilton on their 40 man.  His value is pretty much as a pinch runner.  

And none of those teams try to operate on a $50mill payroll.

He makes for a decent strong side platoon for a small market team.  
 

Tampa should definitely be interested in Hamilton.  Not sure they give up Diaz, but it’s also not uncommon for players in Diaz’ position to be dealt for A-ball talent that Peter’s out in AA, as well….

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

And none of those teams try to operate on a $50mill payroll.

He makes for a decent strong side platoon for a small market team.  
 

Tampa should definitely be interested in Hamilton.  Not sure they give up Diaz, but it’s also not uncommon for players in Diaz’ position to be dealt for A-ball talent that Peter’s out in AA, as well….

Even if it's one year, you're going to want elite potential.  It's going to take a top 100 prospect Maybe they'd take Witherspoon/Hamilton + another guy.  I'm not saying they won't take Hamilton, I'm just saying he's the throw in. 

[Hitch]

On 10/4/2025 at 11:20 PM, notin said:

Very much a dream world.

The Sox won 89 games and made the postseason and I’m seeing that they need to add a 1b, 2b, 3b, C, OF, DH, some relievers and a #2 starter.  And maybe a #5.

The 2024 Red Sox won 81 games and made fewer changes. And it worked.

If Bregman opts out - and that “it was an honor to put on this jersey” quote makes me think he is leaving that way, they need either a 3b or 2b along with a 1b/DH.  
 

They will have a lot of SPs on the 40 man this off-season, making adding one tricky unless they either push some to the pen or make some trades. 
 

I did find it interesting that Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR after 166 innings and Early was worth 1.1 fWAR after only 19.  
 

1b/DH, a 2b/3b if Bregman opts out, and maybe a starting pitcher. And of course the typical MiLB deals.

 

Will there be much else?

 

DH is only open if Masa and Ref are gone. And even then, if we don't trade one of Abreu/Duran, we will need the DH spot for the outfield jam. Our 1B needs to be playing a lot of games. 

2B is almost certainly going to Story/Mayer. 

3B will be interesting if Bregman opts out. I can't shake the feeling he isn't however. That injury and late season slump will hurt him. Ideal world is he stays with us for the next two years and we miss out on the bad part of any potential contract coming his way into his latter years.

C - would not be a surprise if it's Wong as back up again. 

Definitely need some bullpen help and a #2 (wouldn't be surprised to see a #3 come in though).

We've got stuff to do, but I don't think we'll be getting anywhere near as much as some of the lists I've seen bandied about, including yours. I think we'll see a few trades this summer, however. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Even if it's one year, you're going to want elite potential.  It's going to take a top 100 prospect Maybe they'd take Witherspoon/Hamilton + another guy.  I'm not saying they won't take Hamilton, I'm just saying he's the throw in. 

Ya, I have to agree with this. With offense way down in the majors, Diaz is on a short list of what is now considered elite batters...

Story was just named the Sox' Hitter of the Year by the board, and he led the team in strikeouts. We all know Boston needs more offense, and Yandy could give them another bat like Story's, but with more contact and a lot less Ks.

If Diaz is on the market, somebody will overpay with a package that includes a top pitching prospect -- which is what Harrison no longer is considered. So I doubt Tampa accepts Harrison and Hamilton.

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Even if it's one year, you're going to want elite potential.  It's going to take a top 100 prospect Maybe they'd take Witherspoon/Hamilton + another guy.  I'm not saying they won't take Hamilton, I'm just saying he's the throw in. 

I’m sure they are going to WANT elite potential.  But it’s unrealistic that they expect it.

Diaz (whose most similar hitter per B-R is Alex Verdugo, which surprised me, too). Diaz has a Silver Slugger and been worth 5.0 bWAR in the past two seasons.  Last year, the younger, cheaper Nate Lowe was coming off a similar 5.6bWAR over the previous two seasons, owned a Silver Slugger AND a Gold Glove and was traded by Texas to Washington for Robert Garcia, a 29yo fringey middle reliever.  Not even the RP equivalent of Hamilton and a player not worthy of the 40 man roster of every team. 
 

Even if you like Diaz better than the more-decorated Lowe, I don’t see how the difference between the two can be justified by the gap between Kyle Witherspoon and Robert Garcia…

[notin]

28 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ya, I have to agree with this. With offense way down in the majors, Diaz is on a short list of what is now considered elite batters...

Story was just named the Sox' Hitter of the Year by the board, and he led the team in strikeouts. We all know Boston needs more offense, and Yandy could give them another bat like Story's, but with more contact and a lot less Ks.

If Diaz is on the market, somebody will overpay with a package that includes a top pitching prospect -- which is what Harrison no longer is considered. So I doubt Tampa accepts Harrison and Hamilton.

And as you are the one who suggested acquiring Diaz, I assume you support the Sox trading Witherspoon plus others for one year of Diaz?

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Even if it's one year, you're going to want elite potential.  It's going to take a top 100 prospect Maybe they'd take Witherspoon/Hamilton + another guy.  I'm not saying they won't take Hamilton, I'm just saying he's the throw in. 

LOL no. One year for a 1B/DH like Yandy isn't fetching a top 100 guy. If Brezzz trades Witherspoon for Yandy one for one, he should be fired on the spot. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL no. One year for a 1B/DH like Yandy isn't fetching a top 100 guy. If Brezzz trades Witherspoon for Yandy one for one, he should be fired on the spot. 

Witherspoon for Diaz is a redraft fantasy trade where money, years and position don’t matter…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

And as you are the one who suggested acquiring Diaz, I assume you support the Sox trading Witherspoon plus others for one year of Diaz?

I didn't say I'd do that, but that some team will overpay. I'd trade Harrison and Hamilton because both look like depth pieces right now, and those are the resources who should be shopped.

And then I'd extend Yandy for two more years. He won't stop being a professional hitter, and is exactly what a bad offense needs to set an example of what he does best: hit to the opposite field with authority. I'm not looking at any stats, just remembering how he always kills the Sox going to right field -- and also envisioning him hitting pop-ups to the porch in Yankee Stadium that actually clear the fence (instead of the warning track power the current Sox boast).

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Witherspoon for Diaz is a redraft fantasy trade where money, years and position don’t matter…

You know it's the offseason when you start seeing things like this discussed.

😎🔫

[notin]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I didn't say I'd do that, but that some team will overpay. I'd trade Harrison and Hamilton because both look like depth pieces right now, and those are the resources who should be shopped.

And then I'd extend Yandy for two more years. He won't stop being a professional hitter, and is exactly what a bad offense needs to set an example of what he does best: hit to the opposite field with authority. I'm not looking at any stats, just remembering how he always kills the Sox going to right field -- and also envisioning him hitting pop-ups to the porch in Yankee Stadium that actually clear the fence (instead of the warning track power the current Sox boast).

Actually you did say the Sox should get him and also agreed it would cost Witherspoon plus for him.   Myself and mvp called that a massive overpay.  

Sure I get you think other teams will drive up the price.  It is certainly possible, but that doesn’t change what is a fair deal or not.  And I don’t think so many teams will be tossing around top 100 pitching prospects like their Washington quarters. Especially since 1b and DH are not tough positions to fill without doing so.  As I pointed out, last year Nate Lowe went for the bullpen equivalent of pocket change…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Actually you did say the Sox should get him and also agreed it would cost Witherspoon plus for him.   Myself and mvp called that a massive overpay.  

Sure I get you think other teams will drive up the price.  It is certainly possible, but that doesn’t change what is a fair deal or not.  And I don’t think so many teams will be tossing around top 100 pitching prospects like their Washington quarters. Especially since 1b and DH are not tough positions to fill without doing so.  As I pointed out, last year Nate Lowe went for the bullpen equivalent of pocket change…

Please stop with the Lowe comparisons. The guy strikes out a quarter of his at bats in his career and by some stats this year was the worst hitter vs. left-handed pitchers in the majors. 

I'm not saying Yandy can play better 1B, but is a good trade target for a club that isn't going to commit hundreds of millions in the offseason on free agent bats. I think you said that yourself.

And like I said, his addition to the roster would be strategic in the certain ways he can upgrade the batting order in the AL East. That's good team-building.

Breslow drafted a dozen big arms last summer. That's a surplus that can be used to improve the organization in plenty of ways, especially since few prospects ultimately pan out in the end. 

[Hugh2]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL no. One year for a 1B/DH like Yandy isn't fetching a top 100 guy. If Brezzz trades Witherspoon for Yandy one for one, he should be fired on the spot. 

I agree, but you're not getting Yandy for Hamilton, not even close to it. 

[Hugh2]

58 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sure they are going to WANT elite potential.  But it’s unrealistic that they expect it.

Diaz (whose most similar hitter per B-R is Alex Verdugo, which surprised me, too). Diaz has a Silver Slugger and been worth 5.0 bWAR in the past two seasons.  Last year, the younger, cheaper Nate Lowe was coming off a similar 5.6bWAR over the previous two seasons, owned a Silver Slugger AND a Gold Glove and was traded by Texas to Washington for Robert Garcia, a 29yo fringey middle reliever.  Not even the RP equivalent of Hamilton and a player not worthy of the 40 man roster of every team. 
 

Even if you like Diaz better than the more-decorated Lowe, I don’t see how the difference between the two can be justified by the gap between Kyle Witherspoon and Robert Garcia…

Hamilton for Yandy is equally unrealstic. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And none of those teams try to operate on a $50mill payroll.

He makes for a decent strong side platoon for a small market team.  
 

Tampa should definitely be interested in Hamilton.  Not sure they give up Diaz, but it’s also not uncommon for players in Diaz’ position to be dealt for A-ball talent that Peter’s out in AA, as well….

The Rays constantly trade players as they start to make more money. I'd say the odds are 95% he's a goner.

I think they'll get better than DHam for him. They might get better than DHam plus Sandlin or Mullins, if they survive the Rule 5 draft, or they'd probably want Sandlin before Rule 5, too. Their 40 man is not as "tight" was ours.

Pete Fairbanks has a $7M club option with $1M buyout.

How about Casas, Sandlin and DHam for Fairbanks and Yandy? (I might even add a non 40 man roster prospect like YRod, Bleis, Cespedes or Castro.)

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I agree, but you're not getting Yandy for Hamilton, not even close to it. 

Not for Hamilton, but I wouldn't trade Witherspoon for him. Hamilton and one of Sandlin/Clarke/Valera? Sure. Yandy for Justin Gonzales? I'd think about it. 

My personal rankings are also different. I wouldn't trade Fajardo/Godbout/Eyanson/Phillips in a deal for Yandy. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Rays constantly trade players as they start to make more money. I'd say the odds are 95% he's a goner.

They'll get a good return for him. Hard to say what the Sox would give up. They reportedly had interest. 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Please stop with the Lowe comparisons. The guy strikes out a quarter of his at bats in his career and by some stats this year was the worst hitter vs. left-handed pitchers in the majors. 

I'm not saying Yandy can play better 1B, but is a good trade target for a club that isn't going to commit hundreds of millions in the offseason on free agent bats. I think you said that yourself.

And like I said, his addition to the roster would be strategic in the certain ways he can upgrade the batting order in the AL East. That's good team-building.

Breslow drafted a dozen big arms last summer. That's a surplus that can be used to improve the organization in plenty of ways, especially since few prospects ultimately pan out in the end. 

I gave justification for the Lowe comparison using WAR and awards, and didn’t use stats that didn’t exist at the time.  While I do not agree his K rate justified ignoring the trade completely as a value comp, let’s find another.

B-R lists Diaz’ most similar hitter as Alex Verdugo (How!?!?!  I don’t get that one, but here we are).  With the same control and less money, Verdugo was dealt for Fitts and Weissert plus.  Could the Sox get Diaz for a similar package? If so, we’re looking at some sort of Mullins/Uberstine type thing here. (Weissert was reportedly a throw-in DFA candidate as NY needed to clear a 40 man roster spot.)

Projections don’t justify anything close to Witherspoon.  Does any trade in recent history?  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, notin said:

I gave justification for the Lowe comparison using WAR and awards, and didn’t use stats that didn’t exist at the time.  While I do not agree his K rate justified ignoring the trade completely as a value comp, let’s find another.

B-R lists Diaz’ most similar hitter as Alex Verdugo (How!?!?!  I don’t get that one, but here we are).  With the same control and less money, Verdugo was dealt for Fitts and Weissert plus.  Could the Sox get Diaz for a similar package? If so, we’re looking at some sort of Mullins/Uberstine type thing here. (Weissert was reportedly a throw-in DFA candidate as NY needed to clear a 40 man roster spot.)

Projections don’t justify anything close to Witherspoon.  Does any trade in recent history?  

I never dropped Witherspoon's name, Go argue with Hugh.

But you can bet the Red Sox will be trading some pitching prospects in any package for talent this winter -- mainly because they now have very few minor league position players who could headline any deals.