A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

That's your opinion, dipstick.

Right.  Much easier to insult than explain…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

agree on the constant gamble on rehab projest like Buehler and Hendricks, i don't know what the number is/were/are but i wouldn't doubt that they could have signed a decent pitcher for all the $$$ they spent on injured players they hoped to rehab.

An interesting thought.

I have my doubts they could have, but only because those types of pitchers often want 7-8 years.

But certainly some mid-range starter only worthy of a 3-4 year deal.  Sandoval, Buehler and Hendriks over, say, Seth Lugo? Yeah we probably lost out there, even if Sandoval pans out…

[Deja Doh]

Top FA's available.

Pete Alonso (31) <- We need a first baseman!

Bo Bichette (28)

Kyle Schwarber (33)

Cody Bellinger (30)

Eugenio Suarez (34)

Dylan Cease (30)

Kyle Tucker (29)

Trent Grisham (29)

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Why is the AL so weak?  Was it due to their losing record in inter league games (14 games under .500)?

This is a myth spread by folks who don’t watch NL games.  If the NL is so superior, please explain why THE REDS made the playoffs…

Reds made the playoffs because they have insanely good pitching.  No surprise there.

I think when people make statements like “the NL is so much better than the AL” they’re looking at the top.  As you move down to the bottom I’m not surprised that inter-league play resulted in something close to .500 play between the two leagues. 
 

but the teams at the top: LAD/PHIL/MiL/SDP/CHC might all easily beat whoever comes out of the AL this year.  
 

then again….maybe it’s finally Seattles year

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Top FA's available.

Pete Alonso (31) <- We need a first baseman!

Bo Bichette (28)

Kyle Schwarber (33)

Cody Bellinger (30)

Eugenio Suarez (34)

Dylan Cease (30)

Kyle Tucker (29)

Trent Grisham (29)

This is not in order right? Because Kyle Tucker should certainly be at the top.

if Alonso opts out, he’s probably shopping around for the largest contract to take back to Steve Cohen to match. 
 

Going big, probably looks more like Tucker, and trading from our outfield depth to bring in other pieces.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Top FA's available.

Pete Alonso (31) <- We need a first baseman!

Bo Bichette (28)

Kyle Schwarber (33)

If Bregman stays, the Red Sox still have to sign one of Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. The latter is the best hitter on the market, with a career .907 OPS at Fenway Park. He'd have to be willing to move to 2B or 1B or maybe a DH rotation, but money can be convincing.

If Bregman leaves, the Sox realistically need to sign two of Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. But that happening is unrealistic. We also know there were only three professional big league hitters in the playoff line-up, and all three were all once free agents well-paid to come to Boston.

I'd work a trade for Yandy Diaz. Tampa has a team option for '26, but the Rays' MO is to use that so they can deal for prospects, because they're not in the biz of locking up good players in their 30s for market value.

Boston can't truly contend without major leaguer hitters at 1B and 2B, along with some kind of upgrade in an overrated outfield. Duran, Rafaela and Abreu have all shown spurts on the verge of stardom, only to continually revert to bad habits that render them impotent.

The Sox would love a young core to play on their sustained contenders, but realistically, who in the '25 postseason line-up will be part of that? Narvaez.

Baseball seems harder than ever. Too many obstacles prevent young players from consistent improvement. Hopefully, Roman Anthony will be a guy who bucks the trend.

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Reds made the playoffs because they have insanely good pitching.  No surprise there.

I think when people make statements like “the NL is so much better than the AL” they’re looking at the top.  As you move down to the bottom I’m not surprised that inter-league play resulted in something close to .500 play between the two leagues. 
 

but the teams at the top: LAD/PHIL/MiL/SDP/CHC might all easily beat whoever comes out of the AL this year.  
 

then again….maybe it’s finally Seattles year

The Reds pitching was good.  They were third in team fWAR, but not nearly as impressive with numerous other metrics.  And they finished 83-79, which is not a record that screams “postseason” regardless of their pitching.

But also - judging the league by the top teams is questionable enough.  But Milwaukee finished with the best record in the NL.  This is not a dominant star-laden roster.  Their backbone for the last few seasons was their SP, which was down to one guy.  If they were still in the AL, they’d be considered part of the mediocrity.  And apparently Priester would be called an overachiever if he was still in Boston.  Jet like in the AL, none of these teams are clearly dominant over the AL and most have glaring flaws.  I suppose the Dodgers are probably the scariest team, but they’re far from bearable.

But thank you for explaining…

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The Reds pitching was good.  They were third in team fWAR, but not nearly as impressive with numerous other metrics.  And they finished 83-79, which is not a record that screams “postseason” regardless of their pitching.

But also - judging the league by the top teams is questionable enough.  But Milwaukee finished with the best record in the NL.  This is not a dominant star-laden roster.  Their backbone for the last few seasons was their SP, which was down to one guy.  If they were still in the AL, they’d be considered part of the mediocrity.  And apparently Priester would be called an overachiever if he was still in Boston…

The Reds making the playoffs do not make the Yankees beat a team like the Dodgers in the post season. 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Reds making the playoffs do not make the Yankees beat a team like the Dodgers in the post season. 

Never saud that.  But it does throw questions into the superiority of the NL…

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Never saud that.  But it does throw questions into the superiority of the NL…

I suppose there’s a difference between saying the NL is better vs.  the NL has better top teams capable of winning post season series.  

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I suppose there’s a difference between saying the NL is better vs.  the NL has better top teams capable of winning post season series.  

And even that is easily questioned.

I think the Dodgers should be atop that list and maybe the Phillies next.  Beyond that? The Cubs have glaring questions.  The Brewers should be candidates for an “overacheiver” label if Boston gets one.  I mean, they had an “All Star” pitcher that finished with 1.2 fWAR/O.6 bWAR.  That’s pretty much identical to what Boston got from Connelly Early in 19 IP…

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

And even that is easily questioned.

I think the Dodgers should be atop that list and maybe the Phillies next.  Beyond that? The Cubs have glaring questions.  The Brewers should be candidates for an “overacheiver” label if Boston gets one.  I mean, they had an “All Star” pitcher that finished with 1.2 fWAR/O.6 bWAR.  That’s pretty much identical to what Boston got from Connelly Early in 19 IP…

Easily? Sure, but most pundits seem to think the NL has better teams at the top.  I agree

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Bregman stays, the Red Sox still have to sign one of Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. The latter is the best hitter on the market, with a career .907 OPS at Fenway Park. He'd have to be willing to move to 2B or 1B or maybe a DH rotation, but money can be convincing.

If Bregman leaves, the Sox realistically need to sign two of Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. But that happening is unrealistic. We also know there were only three professional big league hitters in the playoff line-up, and all three were all once free agents well-paid to come to Boston.

I'd work a trade for Yandy Diaz. Tampa has a team option for '26, but the Rays' MO is to use that so they can deal for prospects, because they're not in the biz of locking up good players in their 30s for market value.

Boston can't truly contend without major leaguer hitters at 1B and 2B, along with some kind of upgrade in an overrated outfield. Duran, Rafaela and Abreu have all shown spurts on the verge of stardom, only to continually revert to bad habits that render them impotent.

The Sox would love a young core to play on their sustained contenders, but realistically, who in the '25 postseason line-up will be part of that? Narvaez.

Baseball seems harder than ever. Too many obstacles prevent young players from consistent improvement. Hopefully, Roman Anthony will be a guy who bucks the trend.

 

I’m suspicious about any Alonso/Bichette/Schwarber signings.  But I love the idea at a minimum of getting Yandy Diaz, whom I was mentioning all over the place at the deadline.  Historically, Tampa is not a team that begs for top prospects in any trade but rather burns you by taking players often viewed as mediocre and expendable. BTV suggests fair trades might be for Kyle Harrison or David Hamilton.  I’d assume they don’t want Hamilton, but I never thought they’d want Jeffrey Springs.  And he would cheaply fill their upcoming 2b gap.

But Harrison for Diaz? Probabl their preference.  Certainly not the one I prefer, so probably the one they do…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Easily? Sure, but most pundits seem to think the NL has better teams at the top.  I agree

I could see ranking them that way, but my point would be the gap isn’t all that big…

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

I could see ranking them that way, but my point would be the gap isn’t all that big…

No but I think LA is at the top and the next tier is 3 NL teams and maybe Seattle.  
 

BtW I’m not going by just record.  Two teams can have 92 wins with one definitely being better.  Both NYY and TOR won more games than the Dodgers, but I think the dodgers are definitively better in a 7 games serious and beat both those teams.  

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

No but I think LA is at the top and the next tier is 3 NL teams and maybe Seattle.  
 

BtW I’m not going by just record.  Two teams can have 92 wins with one definitely being better.  Both NYY and TOR won more games than the Dodgers, but I think the dodgers are definitively better in a 7 games serious and beat both those teams.  

First of all, 4 NL teams better than any AL team?  Who? And Seattle as the best AL team?
 

I will say, Toronto’s SP is more beat up than Boston’s right now.  Healthy, they can hang with LA. But I don’t think they are going to be healthy even if they make it that far.

The Yankees are a lot like the Dodgers.  Both teams have solid lineups (edge: NY), good rotations (edge: LA) and exploitable bullpens…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’m suspicious about any Alonso/Bichette/Schwarber signings.  But I love the idea at a minimum of getting Yandy Diaz, whom I was mentioning all over the place at the deadline.  Historically, Tampa is not a team that begs for top prospects in any trade but rather burns you by taking players often viewed as mediocre and expendable. BTV suggests fair trades might be for Kyle Harrison or David Hamilton.  I’d assume they don’t want Hamilton, but I never thought they’d want Jeffrey Springs.  And he would cheaply fill their upcoming 2b gap.

But Harrison for Diaz? Probabl their preference.  Certainly not the one I prefer, so probably the one they do…

BTV must have meant Josh Hamilton. But David?

Yandy has won a batting crown and a Silver Slugger. Hammy won a spot on the postseason roster by homering on the final day of the regular season to help beat the Tigers so they didn't have to face the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

I suppose we could trade two OF'er and sign Tucker. It sounds more complicated than it is, and I think teams would be beating down our doors to get Duran, Abreu or Rafaela.

Maybe we package one with some pitching prospect for K Marte. Maybe we sign Torres.

Maybe we package another for a pitcher like Ryan, Lopez or Keller.

Maybe we trade for Y Diaz or sign Hoskins or Naylor and not Alonos, Suarez or Schwarber.

Lots of options.

[moonslav59]

My EOY Power Rankings (overlooking playoff results)

1. MIL

2. PHI

3. NYY

4. LAD

5. TOR

6. CHC

7. SEA

8. BOS

9. SDP

10. CIN

[Randy Red Sox]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Very much a dream world.

The Sox won 89 games and made the postseason and I’m seeing that they need to add a 1b, 2b, 3b, C, OF, DH, some relievers and a #2 starter.  And maybe a #5.

The 2024 Red Sox won 81 games and made fewer changes. And it worked.

If Bregman opts out - and that “it was an honor to put on this jersey” quote makes me think he is leaving that way, they need either a 3b or 2b along with a 1b/DH.  
 

They will have a lot of SPs on the 40 man this off-season, making adding one tricky unless they either push some to the pen or make some trades. 
 

I did find it interesting that Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR after 166 innings and Early was worth 1.1 fWAR after only 19.  
 

1b/DH, a 2b/3b if Bregman opts out, and maybe a starting pitcher. And of course the typical MiLB deals.

 

Will there be much else?

 

sadly probably not

[Sox 42]

If Brigham takes $40M fine - that is his option.  If he wants more and more years let him go.  Move Story to third and let's see if Mayer is worth the hype.  If we can get Ryan by including Duran or Abreu and maybe Tolle I vote yes.  We need power at First and DH - Spend money in free agency (overpay if necessary).  Some of our injured pitchers must recover even if just for depth.  We should have won game 2 vs Yankees.

[moonslav59]

Here is maybe a realistic winter outcome:

Bregman & Gio walk. Story stays. Ref comes back for one more season.

We trade Duran, Clarke & Mullins for Joe Ryan.

We trade Hicks, Wong and Sandlin for Sean Murphy

We sign 37 yr old M. Kelly (2 yrs), 29 yr old G. Torres (4 yrs + option) and 33 yr old Hoskins (2 yrs + option)

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Early/Harrison/Perales

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Tolle, Weissert, Bernardino, Criswell, Fitts,  Kelly/Moran/Guerrero/Murphy/Sandlin

C: Narvaez, Murphy (DH)

1B: Hoskins, Casas/Romy-Campbell

2B: Torres, Romy, DHam

3B: Mayer, Story, Eaton, Romero

SS: Story, Mayer, Sogard

LF: Anthony, Jh Garcia, Campbell

CF: Rafaela, Jh Garcia

RF: Abreu, Refsnyder-JH Garcia

DH: Murphy, Yoshida- Romy/Refsnyder

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Sox 42 said:

If Brigham takes $40M fine - that is his option.  If he wants more and more years let him go.  Move Story to third and let's see if Mayer is worth the hype.  If we can get Ryan by including Duran or Abreu and maybe Tolle I vote yes.  We need power at First and DH - Spend money in free agency (overpay if necessary).  Some of our injured pitchers must recover even if just for depth.  We should have won game 2 vs Yankees.

I hope the Sox brass doesn't put too much hope into returning players from injury and fail to fill 2-4 slots that need reliable players (3B, 2B, 1B, SP)

SP: Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts (Houck is out until 2027.)

RP: Slaten, Wink, Criswell, Guerrero

1B: Casas

3B/2B: Mayer

LF/RF: Anthony

[notin]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

BTV must have meant Josh Hamilton. But David?

Yandy has won a batting crown and a Silver Slugger. Hammy won a spot on the postseason roster by homering on the final day of the regular season to help beat the Tigers so they didn't have to face the Yankees.

Money, years and WAR.

Comparing Yandy Diaz to Josh Hamilton is probably more egregious than comparing David Hamilton to Yandy.

Don’t forget it’s one year it’s one year of Diaz at $12million vs 4 years of pre-arb David Hamilton.  We are talking about Tampa; money matters.

Our last first baseman had a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, but you described him as “released from a last place team.”  Now Silver Sluggers matter?

Hamilton has a rough year tjis year and fans treated him like he didn’t belong in MLB.  But he was pretty good last year - worth more WAR than Yandy Diaz despite playing some 60 fewer games.

 

See, and I thought it would be Harrison for Diaz.  But you’ve convinced me; it should be David Hamilton.  Despite that being a slight overpay…

[moonslav59]

I'd probably give Harrison (maybe Fitts) & DHam for Yandy.

How about DHam & Sandlin (or Mullins) for Yandy just before the Rule 5 draft.

[moonslav59]

If we trade DHam, does that mean we keep Grissom, or do we just go with Sogard and Romy as infield depth?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Money, years and WAR.

Comparing Yandy Diaz to Josh Hamilton is probably more egregious than comparing David Hamilton to Yandy.

Don’t forget it’s one year it’s one year of Diaz at $12million vs 4 years of pre-arb David Hamilton.  We are talking about Tampa; money matters.

Our last first baseman had a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, but you described him as “released from a last place team.”  Now Silver Sluggers matter?

Hamilton has a rough year tjis year and fans treated him like he didn’t belong in MLB.  But he was pretty good last year - worth more WAR than Yandy Diaz despite playing some 60 fewer games.

 

See, and I thought it would be Harrison for Diaz.  But you’ve convinced me; it should be David Hamilton.  Despite that being a slight overpay…

Are we both talking about the Yandy Diaz who was one of the seven hitters in all of Major League Baseball with a .300 batting average? The same Yandy who cracked 25 home runs -- as many as any Red Sox player -- but with only a 14.1 K-rate? The Y.Diaz with a higher On Base, Slugging, and thus OPS than any full-season regular in Boston?

If so, I'll tell you what: not only would I give up the invaluable David Hamilton for him, but since we know how Tampa really operates, to complete this deal I will personally throw in a legal slip of currency featuring Alexander Hamilton on it.

Like Tom Cruise's Dad asked while quoting a satisfied college recruiter in Risky Business: "'Princeton can use a guy like Joel?'"

 

[moonslav59]

Thus Spoke BTV.

[moonslav59]

22 hours ago, notin said:

But certainly some mid-range starter only worthy of a 3-4 year deal.  Sandoval, Buehler and Hendriks over, say, Seth Lugo? Yeah we probably lost out there, even if Sandoval pans out…

This is the point I've been making for yrs. While 1 year deals are "less risky," in general, we've struck out on all of them. Wacha & Hill did okay, but missed key moments of the season.

It's easy to look back and select a longer deal that worked better, but in our case, even the bad longer term deals would have just broken even, because all our one year deals sucked.

$5M + $6M Perez + $10M Richards '20-'21 ($21M)

$7M Wacha+ $5M Hill "22 ($12M)

$10 Kluber + $10M Paxton '23 ($20M)

$39M/2 Giolito '24 ($19M)

$21M Buehler+ $18M/2 Sandoval '25 ($49M counting GIo and 1/2 Sandoval)

That's about $120M total.

Some comps:

2022:

$110M/6 Gausman, $44M/2 Rodon, $36M/3 Kikuchi

2023:

$63M/3 Bassitt, $40M/3 Eflin, $34M/2 Nate, $26M/2 Wacha

2024:

$75M/3 S Gray, $53M/4 Imanaga, $45M/3 S Lugo, $32M/2 Wacha

2025:

$75M/3 Nate, $63M/3 Kikuchi, $55M/4 Pivetta, $35M/2 Flaherty, $29M/2 Boyd

Cherry-picked- YES!

 

 

[moonslav59]

Top Sox wRC+ Leaders for 2025 (200+ PAs unless noted)

146 Devers (traded)

140 Anthony (ended season on IL)

128 Refsnyder (platoon)

125 Bregman (opt out clause)

123 Romy (started season as platoon)

114 Lowe (mid August addition) 119 PAs

111 Duran (hot winter trade rumors)

110 Abreu (platoon and spent time on IL)

101 Story (first full season since COL days)

97 Narvaez (pretty good for a catcher)

91 Rafaela (could win GG Award)

88 Yoshida (misse dtime, then came on strong at the end)

86 Campbell, 83 Sogard (104 PAs) 80 Mayer (136)

77 Toro, 60 DHam (194) 56 Casas (112) 39 Wong (188)