Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Now that training camp has begun. I think bres-slow needs a huge round of applause!!

- he got us a quality number 2 starter! 
- he got us a quality number 3 starter! 
- he got us a number 5 starter. 
- he kept Tolle, early and Witherspoon. 
- he revamped the leakiest infield in the majors. 

I know people will complain about Bregman and the lack of power!! 
but outside of a lefty or two for the bullpen, I feel very confident in the outstanding offseason he had!!!

While I do think we should not neglect the fact that no big bat was added, Contreras is no slouch and may feast on pitchers at Fenway.

Maybe Durbin can improve on his rookie year, as may Anthony, Narvaez & Mayer.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You listed 5 and a fully washed up Goldschmidt being mentioned cannot be serious.

Stanton? LMAO. He just turned 86...errr...I mean 36. (If he can get 500-550 PAs, maybe, but you can say that about a lot of players.)

Ben Rice is at the age where he could add enough to hit 30.

Grisham never hit over 17, until last year, but yes, he can be counted. Chisholm did it once, too, but he counts.

Judge might hit 10, if he's on the IL. Of course, he counts.

I'd say 5 is pushing it, 4 could happen, and 2-3 is most likely.

Now, give Abreu 600 PAs in '25 and he hits 30. Contreras in Fenway might have a better chance at 30 than Stanton. That's two!

No doubt, the Yanks kill us in power and overall offense. Their pitching depends totally on 3 returning from injury pitchers and a 32 year old Max Fried.

Ill give you Contreras but hes never done it.  But a lot of that is because he was catching.  I absolutely will not give you Contreras while you LMAO on Stanton because in 2026, Stanton is much more likely to get to 30. He hit 24 last year in 75 games and hes a stronger person and they are roughly the same age.  YOu are doing some twisting and turning ,but you have to because they return a collective 27 homerun seasons to our 0.

Max Fried was excellent last year, Rodon isnt as hurt as you think, and Gray isnt young either.

According to Vegas: Red Sox are seventh most likely team to win WS, NYY are 2nd.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Found this...

Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón is recovering from October 2025 surgery to remove bone spurs and loose bodies in his left elbow, putting him on track to return to the rotation in April or May 2026. He has begun throwing and reports improved mobility, feeling "great" during his rehab in Florida. This is his second major elbow procedure following Tommy John surgery in 2019. Late April and early May is the targeted return time for Rodon

Cole was really good back in 2023. He has to prove he's back.

Gerrit Cole is recovering from March 2025 Tommy John surgery with internal bracing for a right elbow ligament tear and is expected to return to the Yankees in May or June 2026. 

The Phillies had 4 top 30 NL pitchers last year to the dodgers 1 and were never a threat to beat the dodgers.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

According to Vegas: Red Sox are seventh most likely team to win WS, NYY are 2nd.

Thanks. That's pretty damn close.

BTW, Vegas sets odds based on how people are expected and are betting and NOT on who they think will win. They seek to get 50% to 50% and win the vig. They don't seek to pick the winning team- that would be gambling.

[drewski6]

USA today, Fangraphs, all 4 major betting sites, Vegas, MLB.COM power rankings all have the yankees ahead of us to enter the season.  They are a T1 team, we are a T2 team.  We are a good team but they are more likely to get to WS than us by a 2-1 margin 

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

The Phillies had 4 top 30 NL pitchers last year to the dodgers 1 and were never a threat to beat the dodgers.

"Never a threat?" like you mean when they played them in the actual series they played?

They outscored the Dodgers 15-13 in their series.

PHI  beat LAD 4-2 during the season.

I'm not sure why you have to speak in such absolutes.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks. That's pretty damn close.

BTW, Vegas sets odds based on how people are expected and are betting and NOT on who they think will win. They seek to get 50% to 50% and win the vig. They don't seek to pick the winning team- that would be gambling.

They seek to get 50-50 when the money pours in, thats not whats happening here.  And no , the #2 best team and the #7 best team are not close.  We are 50-50 to make the playoffs, long shots to win the world series.  They are the #2 WS favorites. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

USA today, Fangraphs, all 4 major betting sites, Vegas, MLB.COM power rankings all have the yankees ahead of us to enter the season.  They are a T1 team, we are a T2 team.  We are a good team but they are more likely to get to WS than us by a 2-1 margin 

Betting odds are not projections.

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Now that training camp has begun. I think bres-slow needs a huge round of applause!!

- he got us a quality number 2 starter! 
- he got us a quality number 3 starter! 
- he got us a number 5 starter. 
- he kept Tolle, early and Witherspoon. 
- he revamped the leakiest infield in the majors. 
 

I know people will complain about Bregman and the lack of power!! 
 

but outside of a lefty or two for the bullpen, I feel very confident in the outstanding offseason he had!!!

Yeah. It was just wonderful. Half assed job at best. I’d give him maybe a C. If he didn’t sign Suarez I’d give him an F. The Yankees, Jays, and the Os will finish above us. Take it to the bank. I’m getting pretty good at the prediction business. I predicted they would sign dumpster products rather than get a quality IF bat. And that’s exactly what they did. 
Disgusting franchise.

[drewski6]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

"Never a threat?" like you mean when they played them in the actual series they played?

They outscored the Dodgers 15-13 in their series.

PHI  beat LAD 4-2 during the season.

I'm not sure why you have to speak in such absolutes.

If they outscored em in the playoffs series I was wrong to say never a threat.  It felt that way, but thats probably because LAD were returning champs, but that shouldnt be considered.  I was wrong to say Phils were never a threat and now that you mention it , I do recall them having a chance.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Betting odds are not projections.

Right now every major betting site is giving 60% higher payouts to future bets on the red sox to win ws (compared to the yankees) because all of these sites agree the yankees are 60% more likely to win the WS than the red sox are. Its true that lines move, but they dont move this much, and its not like theres billions of dollars in WS future bets in early Feb.  The lines havent moved much, and they will eventually, but not as much as you think.

The vegas balancing is small, its usually like moving a spread from 4 to 3 because a lot of money came in at one side. Its also kinda rare.  Future line like this will barely move due to money coming in.  Of course, if the red sox are in the ALCS with a 2-0 game advantage, you wont be able to bet 100 to win 1600 like you can right now for a WS win. So the line will move at some point, but it hasnt yet (at all).

The current lines are from paid handicappers who are estimating chances.  They could be wrong.  Unforeseen stuff like Cole hitting a snag coming back and Judge snapping a leg can happen.  But right now, the consensus is the yankees have about 66% better chance to win world series than red sox (its like 10% to 6%).

There is a significant gap between the red sox and the best teams in baseball, but we are in the second tier.  Baseball is just like that in 2026.  A few teams are well out in front.  We are not one.  We are better than most, however.

[drewski6]

Its like dodgers - 20%, yanks 10%, Jays 8%, M's 8%, Mets 8%, Braves 7%, Sox 6%, Phils 6%, Cubs 5%, Os 3%...

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

They seek to get 50-50 when the money pours in, thats not whats happening here.  And no , the #2 best team and the #7 best team are not close.  We are 50-50 to make the playoffs, long shots to win the world series.  They are the #2 WS favorites. 

Not what's happening here?

Huh? They set the odds based on 50-50 betting. If it's opening odds, they set in what they think will be 50-50 betting, and not on what they think the results will be. The end results may be similar, but vegas odds are not projections.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yeah. It was just wonderful. Half assed job at best. I’d give him maybe a C. If he didn’t sign Suarez I’d give him an F. The Yankees, Jays, and the Os will finish above us. Take it to the bank. I’m getting pretty good at the prediction business. I predicted they would sign dumpster products rather than get a quality IF bat. And that’s exactly what they did. 
Disgusting franchise.

What did the Yankee, Oriole and Jays franchises do over the winter?

The Yanks basically stood pat. The Athletic gave them a C. They added some depth and lost very little. You want to count their players returning from injury, but not Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval, Slaten, Casas, Masa...

The O's added a lot, but started off pretty low. They still don't have an ace but did add Baz. The addition of Helsley, Alonso and Ward were very nice. They lost a couple key players too.

The Jays added some big names (Cease & Okamoto) but lost Bichette and Bassitt.

We lost Bregman, Gio, Ref, 1/2 Devers but also Buehler. We added Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Durbin and Oviedo.

I'm not seeing anyone kin the ALE but the O's doing much better than we did.

[FredLynn]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What did the Yankee, Oriole and Jays franchises do over the winter?

The Yanks basically stood pat. The Athletic gave them a C. They added some depth and lost very little. You want to count their players returning from injury, but not Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval, Slaten, Casas, Masa...

The O's added a lot, but started off pretty low. They still don't have an ace but did add Baz. The addition of Helsley, Alonso and Ward were very nice. They lost a couple key players too.

The Jays added some big names (Cease & Okamoto) but lost Bichette and Bassitt.

We lost Bregman, Gio, Ref, 1/2 Devers but also Buehler. We added Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Durbin and Oviedo.

I'm not seeing anyone kin the ALE but the O's doing much better than we did.

I really don’t care what the Athletic gave the Yankmees for a grade. Cole was out all year and he’ll be back, and they lost almost nobody. We lost a lot of thump in our lineup and will likely be bottom half or bottom third in runs scored. Suarez doesn’t make up for that. The Jays and Os are significantly better and will likely finish ahead of the Flops. 
Thanks Breslow. Thanks Henry the Cheap.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I really don’t care what the Athletic gave the Yankmees for a grade. Cole was out all year and he’ll be back, and they lost almost nobody. We lost a lot of thump in our lineup and will likely be bottom half or bottom third in runs scored. Suarez doesn’t make up for that. The Jays and Os are significantly better and will likely finish ahead of the Flops. 
Thanks Breslow. Thanks Henry the Cheap.

Why is Cease & Desist so surely better than Bichette & Bassitt?

I didn't even want Cease. I liked Okamoto, but he's surer bet than Contreras.

Why do we put so much trust in other teams' returning from injury pitching, when we've seen first hand how that almost always works out. I do agree that Rodon should be fine, but "early May" often turns into June or July.

I would rank the Jays and Yanks ahead of the Sox, but the Yanks just barely.

I think the Contreras OPS might equal Bregman's and our infield defense improved by enough to cancel out the loss of Bregma's defense. To me, it's the loss of Devers that hurt the most, but if we count on Cole's return, why not Anthony, who will be 100% on the first day of ST'ing?

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Why is Cease & Desist so surely better than Bichette & Bassitt?

I didn't even want Cease. I liked Okamoto, but he's surer bet than Contreras.

Why do we put so much trust in other teams' returning from injury pitching, when we've seen first hand how that almost always works out. I do agree that Rodon should be fine, but "early May" often turns into June or July.

I would rank the Jays and Yanks ahead of the Sox, but the Yanks just barely.

I think the Contreras OPS might equal Bregman's and our infield defense improved by enough to cancel out the loss of Bregma's defense. To me, it's the loss of Devers that hurt the most, but if we count on Cole's return, why not Anthony, who will be 100% on the first day of ST'ing?

Cole missed the entire year. Anthony played until September 2. Big difference. We had Anthony nearly all year. The Yankmees are getting back an ace that missed the whole season. And they have a lot more players who can hit the baseball. We have Anthony and a prayer.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

Reese Olsen out for year.

Santander may miss the whole season.

Lindor may need Hamate surgery.

Astros seeking LHB OF'er for Paredes.

Verlander signs with Tigers.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Cole missed the entire year. Anthony played until September 2. Big difference. We had Anthony nearly all year. The Yankmees are getting back an ace that missed the whole season. And they have a lot more players who can hit the baseball. We have Anthony and a prayer.

Anthony played a half year. Slaten for about half. Casas missed all but about 5-6 weeks. Mayer missed about half a year. Abreu and others missed time.

Crawford and Sandoval played zero. Of course, neither is Cole, but both had some very nice stretches in their careers. 

I've tried hard to avoid counting on the promise of returning players, but I'm calling it out when it becomes the basis for why the Yanks will be better than 2025.

They are an aging team that made very few changes. Yes, Cole could be a huge boost, and he might lead them to a ring. He could also just be a decent pitcher. Rodon has missed time- off and on- a lot.

I'm just saying either count on all injured players on all teams to return to form or none. I'm choosing to be cautious about ours and theirs.

[moonslav59]

Player ages:

35-37 Cole, Stanton, Goldschmidt, LeMahieu, Cruz

32-34 Judge, Fried, Rodon,  Stanton, Yarbrough, A Slater, Blackburn

 

Sox

35-37: Gray, Chapman

32-34: Contreras, Story, Yoshida

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR...

Reese Olsen out for year.

Santander may miss the whole season.

Lindor may need Hamate surgery.

Astros seeking LHB OF'er for Paredes.

Verlander signs with Tigers.

Masa is a LF hitting "outfielder". and i'd be more than happy to send him to houston for IP.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Masa is a LF hitting "outfielder". and i'd be more than happy to send him to houston for IP.

LOL! And throw in Sandoval & Eaton.

[notin]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Ill give you Contreras but hes never done it.  But a lot of that is because he was catching.  I absolutely will not give you Contreras while you LMAO on Stanton because in 2026, Stanton is much more likely to get to 30. He hit 24 last year in 75 games and hes a stronger person and they are roughly the same age.  YOu are doing some twisting and turning ,but you have to because they return a collective 27 homerun seasons to our 0.

Max Fried was excellent last year, Rodon isnt as hurt as you think, and Gray isnt young either.

According to Vegas: Red Sox are seventh most likely team to win WS, NYY are 2nd.

The problem with Stanton is the 75 games always appears more likely than the 30 home runs.  He’s topped 114 games once since 2019, and his pro-rated 2020 season doesn’t come close.

And he’s not likely to get healthier as he ages…

[moonslav59]

Bieber to start season on IL. Another ALE pitcher not making the opening day roster.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Bieber to start season on IL. Another ALE pitcher not making the opening day roster.

You could see that coming when he accepted the player option for a net $12M.  A healthy Bieber would've commanded a heck of a lot more.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The O's added a lot, but started off pretty low. They still don't have an ace but did add Baz. The addition of Helsley, Alonso and Ward were very nice.

They also have Rodgers and Bradish for the entire season instead of 24 GS in total.  Both are questionable, but pretty talented.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They also have Rodgers and Bradish for the entire season instead of 24 GS in total.  Both are questionable, but pretty talented.

True, but we got zero GS from Crawford and Sandoval. Merloni is super high on Crawford: I have my doubts, but both out guys are pretty talented, too.

I'd prefer to not count on much from any returning-from-injury SP'ers on all teams.

[vjcsmoke]

Following the Durbin trade the Red Sox roster has crystalized into pretty much its final form.

I believe the starters will look like this.

C Narvaez

1B Contreras

2B Mayer

3B Durbin

SS Story

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF Anthony

DH Abreu

Anthony is going to need to take a step forward and claim that #3 or #4 lineup spot.

I'm not sure where Durbin and Mayer will slot into the batting order but hopefully they can be productive.

It looks solid from a defensive point of view but we're going to need to see offensive strides from guys like Anthony and Mayer to make it solid in terms of run scoring.

Am I missing anyone from my starting roster prediction? Agree or Disagree?

[UtahSox]

8 hours ago, drewski6 said:

They seek to get 50-50 when the money pours in, thats not whats happening here.  And no , the #2 best team and the #7 best team are not close.  We are 50-50 to make the playoffs, long shots to win the world series.  They are the #2 WS favorites. 

Vegas odds over under: 
Yankees 91.5
Blue Jays 88.5
Red Sox 87.5
Orioles 84.5
Rays 77.5

I find it funny, people speak of RS as if they improved. They improved……… from what we expected AFTER Bregman and Alonso signed elsewhere. Red Sox had all the makings to take this team right to top of AL…… They did not make the moves to make that happen. And it’s predicted in our Vegas win total. We are not a clearly better team than a year ago. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Following the Durbin trade the Red Sox roster has crystalized into pretty much its final form.

I believe the starters will look like this.

C Narvaez

1B Contreras

2B Mayer

3B Durbin

SS Story

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF Anthony

DH Abreu

Anthony is going to need to take a step forward and claim that #3 or #4 lineup spot.

I'm not sure where Durbin and Mayer will slot into the batting order but hopefully they can be productive.

It looks solid from a defensive point of view but we're going to need to see offensive strides from guys like Anthony and Mayer to make it solid in terms of run scoring.

Am I missing anyone from my starting roster prediction? Agree or Disagree?

MLB.com again TODAY states that Duran is the #1 leftfielder in all of baseball. But the Mets just announced that Soto will play LF this season, so rankings may have to be adjusted.

As for Abreu at DH, it makes no sense for a team admitting and bragging they're built around pitching and D to put a two-time Gold Glover on the bench. 

Of the four "starting" outfielders, Anthony might DH more than any of them. Then he could just concentrate on hitting more home runs -- which a reporter already asked him about in Florida (but no pressure, kid).

I like these batting orders: Duran-Story/Durbin-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Durbin/Story. Cora already said WiLL will bat clean-up, so gotta think Anthony 3rd since there's no one else that can protect him.