Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

What is the cost of a ticket today in comparison to 2003? 

More than double?

Nope, this is not the same JH. Something we all agree on!

Everything is more than double.

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

The #3-4 revenue team should NEVER finish sub 500 IMO. When was the last time the Yankees were sub 500? It’s easier to remember the few years they miss the playoffs than the years they made a deep run. Because they rarely miss the playoffs. This should be our standard. 

I agree 100%.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

For reference, Pedro was paid 12.5M every year. Sandoval is going home with 12.75M this year.

Another reference point in 2004:

• RS $127M
• NYY $184M
• LAD $93M
• NYM $97M
• TOR $50M
• PHI $93M
• SDP $55M

It felt like every FA was going to the NYY.  And if the NYY passed, he was ours.  There was seldom a 3rd team to bid against.

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

As historically homes haven’t risen as much as S&P 500 yet wealth favors home owners.

Is that still true?  I'd have thought 401k's would've caught up to house net equity by now

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

My wife wants to redo most of the house.

Don't start.  We re-did a half-bathroom.  Beautiful, and not overly expensive.  But the ajoining kitchen looked horrible, so we had to redo it.  And, you know, as long as the guys are here, we should think about replacing the dining room ceiling.  And then how much more would it cost to paint it?  Oh, BTW, I no longer like the custom paint that you just bought and cannot be returned.

My spouse was right on everything, and it was a showroom redo.  But it's just a funny thing to move everything from two rooms, into two other rooms.  I had to go on a diet to get past some of the furniture.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Another reference point in 2004:

• RS $127M
• NYY $184M
• LAD $93M
• NYM $97M
• TOR $50M
• PHI $93M
• SDP $55M

It felt like every FA was going to the NYY.  And if the NYY passed, he was ours.  There was seldom a 3rd team to bid against.

This is my point. Now all of these teams are spending more than the Red Sox.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Last chance is scary. 

One of the reasons I like building for the future.  We shouldn't be in a last chance situation.  One of the reasons I like the young kids signing is that I now see a 5-year window of contention.  By my calculations, we are currently the best team in BB in 2030.  If we don't drain off too many picks via FA penalties and CBT penalties (some is fine), then we should be well re-stocked again by 2031.  With good management, we should always be a contender.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

This is my point. Now all of these teams are spending more than the Red Sox.

Absolutely.  But my point is that having a lot of money isn't going to lead to success if you are always bidding against teams willing to overpay.  For all numbers going around, only 6 of the top-10 spenders even made the playoffs.  The LAD, even with their gargantuan payroll, only finished with the 6th best record.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Don't start.  We re-did a half-bathroom.  Beautiful, and not overly expensive.  But the ajoining kitchen looked horrible, so we had to redo it.  And, you know, as long as the guys are here, we should think about replacing the dining room ceiling.  And then how much more would it cost to paint it?  Oh, BTW, I no longer like the custom paint that you just bought and cannot be returned.

My spouse was right on everything, and it was a showroom redo.  But it's just a funny thing to move everything from two rooms, into two other rooms.  I had to go on a diet to get past some of the furniture.

We just did the roof and the windows are probably the most important next purchase living in FL. There has to be some sort of work done in the bathrooms for sure, but probably not full remodels. If we just made the kitchen island bigger and replaced the countertops, it wouldn't be too bad. The pool has to get resurfaced at some point too...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One of the reasons I like building for the future.  We shouldn't be in a last chance situation.  One of the reasons I like the young kids signing is that I now see a 5-year window of contention.  By my calculations, we are currently the best team in BB in 2030.  If we don't drain off too many picks via FA penalties and CBT penalties (some is fine), then we should be well re-stocked again by 2031.  With good management, we should always be a contender.

In 2030? What's even the roster at that point? That's expecting a lot out of guys that haven't really matured yet and a system that is not creating everyday players currently. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Your opinion is well shared me thinks.  

That's also one of my favorite lines of all time "the smartest guys in the room" also a great book about the all the "smarties" who ran ENRON into the ground.  

Financial history is probably the only books I read.  These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room.  Until they aren't.  The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely.  But my point is that having a lot of money isn't going to lead to success if you are always bidding against teams willing to overpay.  For all numbers going around, only 6 of the top-10 spenders even made the playoffs.  The LAD, even with their gargantuan payroll, only finished with the 6th best record.

Exactly.

Spending more should and does increase the odds of winning more but it's not an exact correlation.

According to Spotrac...

2025 Tax Payrolls

76-86 Braves (10th in spending)

81-81 Rangers (9th) and Giants (12th)

72-90 Angels (13th)

2024:

74-99 TOR (10th)

78-84 Tex (5th)

80-82 SFG (8th)

81-81 BOS (12th)

2023

75-87 NYM (FIRST! and $78M more than #2)

82-80 NYY & SDP (T2nd)

73-89 LAA (9th)

12-15 spending teams all has losing records, including the Sox

2022

78-84 BOS (5th highest spender!)

#7, 11, 12, 14 & 15 were below .500

2021

79-83 SDP (2nd!)

82-80 PHU 3rd

77-85 NYM 5th & LAA 8th

 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Financial history is probably the only books I read.  These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room.  Until they aren't.  The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.

That's funny, I own that book and I literally just looked at it last night as I was putting "The Panic of 1907" back on the shelf.  Seems like me and you have a simliar interest in books. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Financial history is probably the only books I read.  These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room.  Until they aren't.  The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.

That's the exact opposite of what I read last year:

Discworld - first 16 books

Starlings: the Curious Odyssey of a Most Hated Bird, by Mike Stark

Insectopolis: a Natural History by Peter Kuper

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In 2030? What's even the roster at that point?

That's one of my more fun research projects recently.

• Narvaez
• 2B
• Arias
• Mayer
• Campbell
• Rafaela
• Anthony
• DH
• Crochet
• Early
• Tolle
• Bello
• Witherspoon

Obviously not everyone will succeed, but there will always be some that out-perform.  But I find it virtually impossible (with no research to support my assertion) that anyone has anything close to a 2030 team like that.

And 5 of those guys are locked in for $103M, leaving another ~$152M for arbitration and FA signings.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely.  But my point is that having a lot of money isn't going to lead to success if you are always bidding against teams willing to overpay.  For all numbers going around, only 6 of the top-10 spenders even made the playoffs.  The LAD, even with their gargantuan payroll, only finished with the 6th best record.

Spending money isn’t always going to lead to success as the Mets have proven, but I will say it helps more than most. How many out of those 6 top ten spenders do you think would have made the playoffs if they hadn’t of spent the money. The Jays without Vlad JR. The Yankees without Judge, or the Dodgers without the Big O, or the Yam Man. The Dodgers may have only finished with the 6th best record, but do you think injuries had anything do with that, and where would they have finished without that money. Worse than 6th?

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's funny, I own that book and I literally just looked at it last night as I was putting "The Panic of 1907" back on the shelf.  Seems like me and you have a simliar interest in books. 

I don't have the ability to read a book that I know is a fiction.  I open it, but I always know the author is making it up.  I like history as well, but usually just Wiki it.

But no work of fiction can come close to the level of arrogance and hubris found in the world of finance (and I am invested).  Just the feeling that Burry must have gotten when the same people that laughed at him a week earlier, were now calling asking about the futures he held, was priceless.  The arrogant prick I am, I'd have told them, "Sorry, I have Goldman and Duetsche on hold.  I'll get back to you.  Or I'll wait a week and feast on the carcass of what use to be your trillion $$$ company. '.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly.

Spending more should and does increase the odds of winning more but it's not an exact correlation.

According to Spotrac...

2025 Tax Payrolls

76-86 Braves (10th in spending)

81-81 Rangers (9th) and Giants (12th)

72-90 Angels (13th)

2024:

74-99 TOR (10th)

78-84 Tex (5th)

80-82 SFG (8th)

81-81 BOS (12th)

2023

75-87 NYM (FIRST! and $78M more than #2)

82-80 NYY & SDP (T2nd)

73-89 LAA (9th)

12-15 spending teams all has losing records, including the Sox

2022

78-84 BOS (5th highest spender!)

#7, 11, 12, 14 & 15 were below .500

2021

79-83 SDP (2nd!)

82-80 PHU 3rd

77-85 NYM 5th & LAA 8th

 

Exactly? There are always more than one reason why a team doesn’t do as good as they should. The injury ju Ju that has hindered Boston for more than a few years now has hindered what the Red Sox could have, and should have been IMO. Has it not? That has nothing to do with how much money is spent, or how high the payroll is. Every single example you cited has reasons, and most likely would have been in a worse position with a lower payroll, and if broken all down would probably show that.

[UtahSox]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly.

Spending more should and does increase the odds of winning more but it's not an exact correlation.

According to Spotrac...

2025 Tax Payrolls

76-86 Braves (10th in spending)

81-81 Rangers (9th) and Giants (12th)

72-90 Angels (13th)

2024:

74-99 TOR (10th)

78-84 Tex (5th)

80-82 SFG (8th)

81-81 BOS (12th)

2023

75-87 NYM (FIRST! and $78M more than #2)

82-80 NYY & SDP (T2nd)

73-89 LAA (9th)

12-15 spending teams all has losing records, including the Sox

2022

78-84 BOS (5th highest spender!)

#7, 11, 12, 14 & 15 were below .500

2021

79-83 SDP (2nd!)

82-80 PHU 3rd

77-85 NYM 5th & LAA 8th

 

I can’t do this anymore…. you guys can show us where a top 10 spending team didn’t make the playoffs, or a bottom 10 payroll team did……

You’re right, the marlins, A’s, Rockies win just as much as the Yankees, Dodgers, 04-19 Red Sox.

Because It’s not about spending, that getting good players via free agency does not guarantee you wins…. So don’t do it, It is not important…...

But if it actually is important, we actually do spend enough, and we are right back in the upward  “heyday” because we signed Devers to the biggest contract in Red Sox history (ignore the fact we traded him as the actual pay caught up to AAV) AND because our payroll is double what it was in 2004. 
 

One of you guys actually used the 2025 Dodgers as an example of a failure??? Because their regular season record.

 

Agree to disagree is my final answer. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's one of my more fun research projects recently.

• Narvaez
• 2B
• Arias
• Mayer
• Campbell
• Rafaela
• Anthony
• DH
• Crochet
• Early
• Tolle
• Bello
• Witherspoon

Obviously not everyone will succeed, but there will always be some that out-perform.  But I find it virtually impossible (with no research to support my assertion) that anyone has anything close to a 2030 team like that.

And 5 of those guys are locked in for $103M, leaving another ~$152M for arbitration and FA signings.

I'd go...

C Narvaez & Jo Garcia (A Guzman)

1B: Justin Gonzales (T Gray)

2B: Arias (Godbout/Cason)

SS: Mayer (Arias/Ramos)

3B: Romero (Mayer)

LF: Campbell (Gonzales)

CF: Rafaela (Azocar)

RF: Anthony (Taylor/Rivas)

DH: Soto/Cespedes (Campbell)

SP: Crochet, Bello, Early, Tolle, Harrison

RP: Bennett, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Valera, Sandlin, Monegro, Mullins

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd go...

C Narvaez & Jo Garcia (A Guzman)

1B: Justin Gonzales (T Gray)

2B: Arias (Godbout/Cason)

SS: Mayer (Arias/Ramos)

3B: Romero (Mayer)

LF: Campbell (Gonzales)

CF: Rafaela (Azocar)

RF: Anthony (Taylor/Rivas)

DH: Soto/Cespedes (Campbell)

SP: Crochet, Bello, Early, Tolle, Harrison

RP: Bennett, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Valera, Sandlin, Monegro, Mullins

Almost what Soxprospects.com 

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I can’t do this anymore…. you guys can show us where a top 10 spending team didn’t make the playoffs, or a bottom 10 payroll team did……

You’re right, the marlins, A’s, Rockies win just as much as the Yankees, Dodgers, 04-19 Red Sox.

Because It’s not about spending, that getting good players via free agency does not guarantee you wins…. So don’t do it, It is not important…...

But if it actually is important, we actually do spend enough, and we are right back in the upward  “heyday” because we signed Devers to the biggest contract in Red Sox history (ignore the fact we traded him as the actual pay caught up to AAV) AND because our payroll is double what it was in 2004. 
 

One of you guys actually used the 2025 Dodgers as an example of a failure??? Because their regular season record.

 

Agree to disagree is my final answer. 

👍👍👍.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's one of my more fun research projects recently.

• Narvaez
• 2B
• Arias
• Mayer
• Campbell
• Rafaela
• Anthony
• DH
• Crochet
• Early
• Tolle
• Bello
• Witherspoon

Obviously not everyone will succeed, but there will always be some that out-perform.  But I find it virtually impossible (with no research to support my assertion) that anyone has anything close to a 2030 team like that.

And 5 of those guys are locked in for $103M, leaving another ~$152M for arbitration and FA signings.

I mean, this team is not all that different than what we are throwing out there now. Is this some sort of world beater? Arias hasn't hit above A. Mayer hasn't hit above AAA. Narvaez has had one good season. Rafaela is no guarantee. The pitching is a huge question mark due to injury. Saying it's virtually impossible is just a wild take. The Dodgers and Yankees are in the playoffs every year. Until the Sox get to that level, it's hard for me to believe this roster can be at the top of anything. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd go...

C Narvaez & Jo Garcia (A Guzman)

1B: Justin Gonzales (T Gray)

2B: Arias (Godbout/Cason)

SS: Mayer (Arias/Ramos)

3B: Romero (Mayer)

LF: Campbell (Gonzales)

CF: Rafaela (Azocar)

RF: Anthony (Taylor/Rivas)

DH: Soto/Cespedes (Campbell)

SP: Crochet, Bello, Early, Tolle, Harrison

RP: Bennett, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Valera, Sandlin, Monegro, Mullins

And SoxProspects only projects Tolle, Arias, Early and Witherspoon to be an average regular or better. All the other guys are bench or up and down guys. Unless all these guys start reaching their ceilings, which is far from likely...

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, this team is not all that different than what we are throwing out there now. Is this some sort of world beater? Arias hasn't hit above A. Mayer hasn't hit above AAA. Narvaez has had one good season. Rafaela is no guarantee. The pitching is a huge question mark due to injury. Saying it's virtually impossible is just a wild take. The Dodgers and Yankees are in the playoffs every year. Until the Sox get to that level, it's hard for me to believe this roster can be at the top of anything. 

It's better than whatever anyone else has.  That's vitally important.

[drewski6]

40 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I can’t do this anymore…. you guys can show us where a top 10 spending team didn’t make the playoffs, or a bottom 10 payroll team did……

You’re right, the marlins, A’s, Rockies win just as much as the Yankees, Dodgers, 04-19 Red Sox.

Because It’s not about spending, that getting good players via free agency does not guarantee you wins…. So don’t do it, It is not important…...

But if it actually is important, we actually do spend enough, and we are right back in the upward  “heyday” because we signed Devers to the biggest contract in Red Sox history (ignore the fact we traded him as the actual pay caught up to AAV) AND because our payroll is double what it was in 2004. 
 

One of you guys actually used the 2025 Dodgers as an example of a failure??? Because their regular season record.

 

Agree to disagree is my final answer. 

My only thing here is dont start looping people together, which is tough because you are relatively new.

So for example, you responded to moon, but quoted joe.

Moon is great, joe is a clown.

Try to keep the posters distinguished if you can.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And SoxProspects only projects Tolle, Arias, Early and Witherspoon to be an average regular or better. All the other guys are bench or up and down guys. Unless all these guys start reaching their ceilings, which is far from likely...

I just went by who I think are the best players currently in our system that will be under control in 2030.

Did you see anybody better? I'm open to changing my mind.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

This is my point. Now all of these teams are spending more than the Red Sox.

4 of them are considerably richer than us.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Financial history is probably the only books I read.  These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room.  Until they aren't.  The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.

Great book and film. 👍

[JoeBrady]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

joe is a clown.

What is wrong with you?