Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think there is going to be push back, but many of these teams did what they did under the old rules and now have guys locked up.  I think if they come in with harsher penalties it would have a higher starting point to allow the league to adjust. 

E.G. They instititute a hard cap, but they make it 300 million. 

I agree, evil empires are good for the game.  Everyone lose seeing an empire crumble. 

If there's a hard cap, there'd have to be a hard floor, which teams don't want. 

[Nick]

7. The best Red Sox player or prospect traded will be:

 

 

COTILLO: Ceddanne Rafaela

 

 

My hot take of the winter is that the Red Sox are going to find Duran’s value to be lower than they expect and Rafaela’s to be much higher than expected across the game. Therefore, headlining a trade package with Rafaela — most teams won’t balk at the six years and $48 million (plus a club option) he’s guaranteed — can’t be ruled out. Trading the Gold Glover is not Plan A for the Sox but would allow a (left-to-right) outfield of Anthony, Duran (who is better in center than left) and Abreu with someone like Schwarber getting a full load of DH at-bats.

Can we just move away from 3 lefty hitting outfielders? I will not shed a tear over Duran leaving. You get to keep 2 Gold Glovers, young outfielders not named Anthony. Why is this so difficult?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If there's a hard cap, there'd have to be a hard floor, which teams don't want. 

I dont think teams really want a hard cap either. I think they are happy to get the annual check from the teams that are actually trying and paying a penalty, and the teams that are actually trying and paying a penalty are happy to cut it.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

That is more than what BTV suggests.  FWIW, at the time of the trade, we did not pay more than what BTV suggests for Crochet

Skubal is a lot more established than Crochet was. Throw in Anthony, and then get a new Red Sox owner to pay for Skubal, because JH wouldn’t even think about.

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Skubal is a lot more established than Crochet was. Throw in Anthony, and then get a new Red Sox owner to pay for Skubal, because JH wouldn’t even think about.

more established BUT literally 1/2 the amount of team control.  That makes a big difference as well. 

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

more established BUT literally 1/2 the amount of team control.  That makes a big difference as well. 

My issue with skubal is that on top of the trade capital we'd have to spend, we'd have to blow most the budget on extending him.

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

more established BUT literally 1/2 the amount of team control.  That makes a big difference as well. 

I get the team control, but the amount it would take to resign him would be way over what the Red Sox, or JH would want to spend.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I get the team control, but the amount it would take to resign him would be way over what the Red Sox, or JH would want to spend.

with crochet already , yeah. Its hard to pay 2 aces ace money and still have enough left in the piggybank to fix the offense

Agreed - id rather trade for a #2 who has 3-4 years at modest money than a #1 who we are going to have immediately extend at ace money

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

with crochet already , yeah. Its hard to pay 2 aces ace money and still have enough left in the piggybank to fix the offense

Agreed - id rather trade for a #2 who has 3-4 years at modest money than a #1 who we are going to have immediately extend at ace money

Nah....when the best pitcher in baseball becomes available you at least have to take a swing.  Sox have Rafaela/Anthony/Mayer looked up for the forseeable future and other names too.  The offense needs a tweak or two.  Also, in my original proposal, I said the Sox should go big by aquiring pithching and also signing Bichette. 

Sox went over the cap last year, they're at the beginning of their window, it's time to spend. 

[Hugh2]

Red Sox were 7th in MLB in runs scored, and 10th in fewest runs allowed.  Saying hitting is a priority over pitching may not be 100% accurate. 

Bregman leaving aside, there should be a ton of potential to get better offensively by the youngsters improving and guys getting healthy.  

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Nah....when the best pitcher in baseball becomes available you at least have to take a swing.  Sox have Rafaela/Anthony/Mayer looked up for the forseeable future and other names too.  The offense needs a tweak or two.  Also, in my original proposal, I said the Sox should go big by aquiring pithching and also signing Bichette. 

Sox went over the cap last year, they're at the beginning of their window, it's time to spend. 

Hopefully Skubal resigns with Detroit, which I doubt he would do without testing the FA market first. If that happens, and the Big spenders get involved the Red Sox don’t have a chance. If you want the Red Sox to do a dog, and pony show to say they tried then fine, but it would be a waste of time to both the Red. Sox, and Skubal.

[Hitch]

56 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My issue with skubal is that on top of the trade capital we'd have to spend, we'd have to blow most the budget on extending him.

I'd be fine with that for the 1-2 punch we'd then have 

[Larry Cook]

Is one of the Japanese team posting a pitcher, iaki? I may have spelled his name wrong. 
 

[Hugh2]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If there's a hard cap, there'd have to be a hard floor, which teams don't want. 

Anything we suggest either owners, players, rich teams, or poor teams don’t want.  Either something gives or there’s a lockout in 2027. 
 

a hard floor is a reasonable concept

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Breggie/Hoskins is a reasonble ask. A Suarez/Hoskins offseason would be horrible for the defense. If they wanted to spend and get defensive and offensive value, they could go Breggie/Okamoto. 

It's a realistic ask, and we may not even go that far, but even if Breggie returns and somehow he and more PAs from Roman makes up for the 830 PAs of 2025's Devers+ Breggie, is Hoskins improving on the .691 OPS going to bump us up a level?

Hoskins: .748 in '25, .732 last 2 years and .760 in his last 3 seasons (missing 2023.)

Are you counting on better from Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez & Rafaela? We all know how much you count on Mayer to go 150+ games.

Suarez might be a big boost on O over Bregman, but we might lose something on D and clubhouse leadership.

This is the time to go bold, or at least bolder than just adding Hoskins. Hell, Lowe gave us .790 and our O fell apart.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Soxtalk speculators always include The Password Garcia in proposed trade packages. I say keep him -- bats righty, hits homers.

Boston Organizational Home Run leaders 2024-25:

Garcia 44, Devers 43, Abreu 39, Duran 37, Anthony 36, Campbell 34, Rafaela 31, O'Neill 31.

Some say another promising young outfielder on the roster is redundant, but the real reason most want him gone is it's too hard to learn how to spell Jhostynxon. Break it into two parts: Jhost (for typing sake, the letters almost rhyme with Ghost) then -ynxon (wordscramble for a president forced to resign by Congress, back when there were still checks and balances).

Jhost-ynxon Garcia. Soxprospects report: "Power is legit... substantial impact ability, especially against lefties... solid defensive profile, plus arm... potential platoon outfielder"

Sounds like an ideal partner for Abreu in RF, with Roman and Cedanne in LF and CF.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Anything we suggest either owners, players, rich teams, or poor teams don’t want.  Either something gives or there’s a lockout in 2027. 
 

a hard floor is a reasonable concept

Why does something have to give? The owners are making a lot of money. The players are doing well. There is nothing wrong with the game. There is no reason for a work stoppage except for pure greed from the owners. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Why does something have to give? The owners are making a lot of money. The players are doing well. There is nothing wrong with the game. There is no reason for a work stoppage except for pure greed from the owners. 

It's not my intention to debate this, if anything you're right, compared to a percentage of revenue baseball players do worse than some of the other major sports.  But I'm just talking about what I'm hearing.  

Maybe something changes, maybe something is being overblown, but I keep reading on how everyone is very far apart and a work stoppage is coming. 

I still think a hard floor is a reasonable concept. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's a realistic ask, and we may not even go that far, but even if Breggie returns and somehow he and more PAs from Roman makes up for the 830 PAs of 2025's Devers+ Breggie, is Hoskins improving on the .691 OPS going to bump us up a level?

Hoskins: .748 in '25, .732 last 2 years and .760 in his last 3 seasons (missing 2023.)

Are you counting on better from Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez & Rafaela? We all know how much you count on Mayer to go 150+ games.

Suarez might be a big boost on O over Bregman, but we might lose something on D and clubhouse leadership.

This is the time to go bold, or at least bolder than just adding Hoskins. Hell, Lowe gave us .790 and our O fell apart.

I like Hoskins because of his swing profile's fit at Fenway. 

O'Neill '22-'23: 649 PA, 23 HR, 707 OPS

O'Neill '24: 473 PA, 31 HR, 847 OPS

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

It's not my intention to debate this, if anything you're right, compared to a percentage of revenue baseball players do worse than some of the other major sports.  But I'm just talking about what I'm hearing.  

Maybe something changes, maybe something is being overblown, but I keep reading on how everyone is very far apart and a work stoppage is coming. 

I still think a hard floor is a reasonable concept. 

The hard floor is reasonable, sure. I just don't think the owners will go for it because they'll want a hard cap to go with it and the players won't go for that. 

Everyone is complaining about the Dodgers right now and the Dodgers aren't what's wrong with baseball IMO. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The hard floor is reasonable, sure. I just don't think the owners will go for it because they'll want a hard cap to go with it and the players won't go for that. 

Everyone is complaining about the Dodgers right now and the Dodgers aren't what's wrong with baseball IMO. 

I agree. The bottom feeders who won’t spend are a bigger problem to me.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I agree. The bottom feeders who won’t spend are a bigger problem to me.

Two teams had to play in MiLB stadiums for the whole year! It'll happen again for the next year as well! They say the Trop will be ready for Opening Day, but I don't buy it. The roof will be done, but I think the rest of the work will fall behind. Manfred just lets these owners do whatever they want and runs cover for them. Both the Rays and A's couldn't stop fighting with the local governments they needed to work with. It's just pathetic. A's are most likely moving to Las Vegas, but many people still believe it's not a done deal. There is no real plan with the Rays and the new owners don't want to play in the Trop very long. My guess is that the repairs are completed and then they work on moving to Nashville. 

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Red Sox were 7th in MLB in runs scored, and 10th in fewest runs allowed.  Saying hitting is a priority over pitching may not be 100% accurate. 

Bregman leaving aside, there should be a ton of potential to get better offensively by the youngsters improving and guys getting healthy.  

Bregman leaving, trading Duran, having no devers aside*

(thats 3 of your top 4 hitters)

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why does something have to give? The owners are making a lot of money. The players are doing well. There is nothing wrong with the game. There is no reason for a work stoppage except for pure greed from the owners. 

thats a pretty big "except for"

i agree that ownership greed is the problem in baseball.

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Two teams had to play in MiLB stadiums for the whole year! It'll happen again for the next year as well! They say the Trop will be ready for Opening Day, but I don't buy it. The roof will be done, but I think the rest of the work will fall behind. Manfred just lets these owners do whatever they want and runs cover for them. Both the Rays and A's couldn't stop fighting with the local governments they needed to work with. It's just pathetic. A's are most likely moving to Las Vegas, but many people still believe it's not a done deal. There is no real plan with the Rays and the new owners don't want to play in the Trop very long. My guess is that the repairs are completed and then they work on moving to Nashville. 

Vancouver on the radar to get a team?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I like Hoskins because of his swing profile's fit at Fenway. 

O'Neill '22-'23: 649 PA, 23 HR, 707 OPS

O'Neill '24: 473 PA, 31 HR, 847 OPS

Yes, I remember you presenting Hoskins' profile, before, but I have to think we need a bigger upgrade than just him. I don't see a Bregman return and 300 more PAs from Anthony as breaking even with the 830 PAs of the 2025 Bregman & Devers,

.905 Devers (15 HRs and 58 RBI in 334)

.821 Bregman (18 HRs and 62 RBI in 495)

33 Hrs and 120 RBI in 830 PAs.

Then, we need Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez, Romy and Rafaela to keep the '25 pace.

While Hoskins should easily beat the .691 combined 1B OPS of 2025, he may not top Lowe's .790.

Yoshida might improve on .696. So might Mayer at .674. I'm not sure any others jump out as good bets to do better.

We may also lose Ref's .838 OPS, but there are plenty of addition by subtraction players we will lose or play less:

.659 Toro in 284 PAs (10th ranked in PAs)

.664 Campbell in 264 (11th but could play more)

.590 DHam in 194 (14th)

.500 Wong in 188 (15th)

.790 Lowe in 119 (17th but not an addition by subtraction)

.580 Casas in 112 (18th and has a shot at a big improvement)

.661 Sogard in 104 (19th)

.731 Eaton in 90 (20th and above the league OPS.)

I realize you are trying to be realistic, and this type of plan may very well mirror what Brez ends up doing, but IMO, it falls way short.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I agree. The bottom feeders who won’t spend are a bigger problem to me.

Maybe a hard floor is unrealistic, but if you told the revenue sharing recipients that they only get the amount of money from sharing that they increase their player budget by, maybe it would spur spending. The deal could even give 125% of a budget increase in revenue sharing, but they get nothing, if they don't increase their budget.

[Hugh2]

50 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman leaving, trading Duran, having no devers aside*

(thats 3 of your top 4 hitters)

Post all star break they were 11th, still in the top half.  They also lost a lot of guys that will be back this year like Mayer, Anthony, and Abreu for a while.

Also, this isn't a zero sum game.  You can go out and get a hitter and a pitcher. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Post all star break they were 11th, still in the top half.  They also lost a lot of guys that will be back this year like Mayer, Anthony, and Abreu for a while.

Also, this isn't a zero sum game.  You can go out and get a hitter and a pitcher. 

Top half-middle third is meh. Losing Devers (.905) Ref (.828) and Lowe (.790) could be made up for by more PAs from Anthony, Mayer and Abreu (+Yoshida/Casas/Romy/Campbell-Garcia) but that is not even close to a likely equalizer.

IMO, just bringing back Bregman and signing Hoskins/Naylor/O'Hearn or Josh Bell, as I've seen suggested often is falling way short.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Post all star break they were 11th, still in the top half.  They also lost a lot of guys that will be back this year like Mayer, Anthony, and Abreu for a while.

Also, this isn't a zero sum game.  You can go out and get a hitter and a pitcher. 

Post AUG 15th, they were 19th in wRC+ and 15th in OPS.

Tied for 16th in wOBA

19th in runs scored