Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cashman has only missed the playoffs 5 times in 28 years. They'd be absolutely braindead to let him go. 

Cashman is a much better GM than most people give him credit for.  I think he was often pressured by Levine to make some moves that he didn't want to make.  He should be left alone to do his thing.

That said, perhaps just having a fresh view would do the Yankees some good.  Cashman has been there a long time.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Cashman is a much better GM than most people give him credit for.  I think he was often pressured by Levine to make some moves that he didn't want to make.  He should be left alone to do his thing.

That said, perhaps just having a fresh view would do the Yankees some good.  Cashman has been there a long time.

He has created consistent winner. It can't all be related to big budgets, but I do think he has not changed enough with the times, and his teams have flaws they can't ever seem to overcome. It's been over 15 years, now. Yes, they've only missed the playoffs less than a handful of times since their 2009 ring, but just one ring in 25 years, with all those trips to the post season makes you wonder what is lacking.

I'm thankful he's not figured it out. I'm very thankful he's kept Boone as the manager for so long. What is it? 8 years, now?

[oldtimer]

After watching the Skankies go down in flame with their plethora of long ball hitter, while the Blue Jays  scored a lot more runs, you have to call into question what constitutes a big bat. Some like Judge are obviously real offensive juggernauts, but so many swung from their heels and made infrequent contact. Far less noted players on the Blue Jays did a much better job of making contact for a hit and did so in critical situations..

Roman Anthony strikes me as a guy who will develop power but also make contact or get walked. Yoshida is more of a lower power guy but one who geneerally can make contact. Story picked it up this year but others like Duran, Rafaela and Abreu seem to overswing and be prone to striking out.

So for 2026 it's anyones guess on  , Duran is a likely trade candidate and Rafaela is loved by Cora but not a good hitter or big bat. Let's hope Brez is in the market for a couple of real big bats.

[moonslav59]

Yes, we can't stop at one, and if we lose Bregman, it needs to be two that are better than Bregman.

[notin]

Some notin trades -

BTV-approved

1. Jhostnyxon Garcia to SD for RHRP Jeremiah Estrada

2. Wilyer Abreu to Philly for SS Aiden Miller. Miller and LHPBrandon Clarke to MN for RHSP Joe Ryan.  (I’m not a huge Ryan fan, but Breslow did try to get him before.)

Then sign either Bregman and 1b Rhys Hoskins or 1b Pete Alonso and 2b Luis Rengifo.  Cost is probably similar.

[moonslav59]

Sad way for the Phillies to lose.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

Some notin trades -

BTV-approved

1. Jhostnyxon Garcia to SD for RHRP Jeremiah Estrada

2. Wilyer Abreu to Philly for SS Aiden Miller. Miller and LHPBrandon Clarke to MN for RHSP Joe Ryan.  (I’m not a huge Ryan fan, but Breslow did try to get him before.)

Then sign either Bregman and 1b Rhys Hoskins or 1b Pete Alonso and 2b Luis Rengifo.  Cost is probably similar.

Seems realistic and doable.

Does it work with Duran not Abreu?

[jdc69]

6 hours ago, oldtimer said:

After watching the Skankies go down in flame with their plethora of long ball hitter, while the Blue Jays  scored a lot more runs, you have to call into question what constitutes a big bat. Some like Judge are obviously real offensive juggernauts, but so many swung from their heels and made infrequent contact. Far less noted players on the Blue Jays did a much better job of making contact for a hit and did so in critical situations..

Roman Anthony strikes me as a guy who will develop power but also make contact or get walked. Yoshida is more of a lower power guy but one who geneerally can make contact. Story picked it up this year but others like Duran, Rafaela and Abreu seem to overswing and be prone to striking out.

So for 2026 it's anyones guess on  , Duran is a likely trade candidate and Rafaela is loved by Cora but not a good hitter or big bat. Let's hope Brez is in the market for a couple of real big bats.

I believe more in higher average guys than the modern consensus. I've heard that people think Pete Rose is overrated because he was such a hit hunter but he got rings and WS MVPs and theoretically I think its because in the postseason, any kind of hit is good and it builds belief and confidence and momentum. Its better than the mounting pressure of striking out going for the HR.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I believe more in higher average guys than the modern consensus. I've heard that people think Pete Rose is overrated because he was such a hit hunter but he got rings and WS MVPs and theoretically I think its because in the postseason, any kind of hit is good and it builds belief and confidence and momentum. Its better than the mounting pressure of striking out going for the HR.

I'm on your side. I think it's better for this team full of all-or-nothing swingers to acquire more .300 hitters with 20-home run power like Bichette and Yandy Diaz, rather than 40 HR guys like Suarez who also K 200 times.

The last thing this batting order needs is another big whiffer.

 

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Seems realistic and doable.

Does it work with Duran not Abreu?

Duran’s BTV values is off the chart.  His surplus value is like $70mill, 6th highest among MLB outfielders,  as opposed to only $33mill for Abreu.

I honestly think it’s a little high…

[Bellhorn04]

6 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I believe more in higher average guys than the modern consensus. I've heard that people think Pete Rose is overrated because he was such a hit hunter but he got rings and WS MVPs and theoretically I think its because in the postseason, any kind of hit is good and it builds belief and confidence and momentum. Its better than the mounting pressure of striking out going for the HR.

Rose also took his walks and hit a lot of doubles.

[moonslav59]

We need one of both: a big power bat (high Ks or not) and a .300 type batter with a .360+ OBP.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Duran’s BTV values is off the chart.  His surplus value is like $70mill, 6th highest among MLB outfielders,  as opposed to only $33mill for Abreu.

I honestly think it’s a little high…

$70M is too high, with his declining D, but his speed does add a lot of value.

How would BTV rate a trade like this?

Duran, Rafaela & Hicks 

for

Buxton & Ryan

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran’s BTV values is off the chart.  His surplus value is like $70mill, 6th highest among MLB outfielders,  as opposed to only $33mill for Abreu.

I honestly think it’s a little high…

But why do you think that?  I assume it's because of projected WAR.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, oldtimer said:

After watching the Skankies go down in flame with their plethora of long ball hitter, while the Blue Jays  scored a lot more runs, you have to call into question what constitutes a big bat. Some like Judge are obviously real offensive juggernauts, but so many swung from their heels and made infrequent contact. Far less noted players on the Blue Jays did a much better job of making contact for a hit and did so in critical situations..

Roman Anthony strikes me as a guy who will develop power but also make contact or get walked. Yoshida is more of a lower power guy but one who geneerally can make contact. Story picked it up this year but others like Duran, Rafaela and Abreu seem to overswing and be prone to striking out.

So for 2026 it's anyones guess on  , Duran is a likely trade candidate and Rafaela is loved by Cora but not a good hitter or big bat. Let's hope Brez is in the market for a couple of real big bats.

"Swung from their heels and infrequent contact" is the hallmark of Red Sox baseball right now. Guess we'll follow the Yankees postseason performance (especially their defensive lapses) until the org decides to head in a different direction. Right now, their offenses have a lot of parallel thinking. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran’s BTV values is off the chart.  His surplus value is like $70mill, 6th highest among MLB outfielders,  as opposed to only $33mill for Abreu.

I honestly think it’s a little high…

If another team has that much value on him, I'm moving him. I'd trade him for two Abreus. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If another team has that much value on him, I'm moving him. I'd trade him for two Abreus. 

I might trade Duran's 3 years of control for 4 years of Abreu straight up.

Abreu plays better D and at a more difficult position.

Duran runs much better.

The L-R split thing may now be in Abreu's favor.

vs LHPs:

2025: .676 Abreu/ .600 Duran

Is that enough to outweigh 2024-2025?

.604 Abreu/ .634 Duran

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But why do you think that?  I assume it's because of projected WAR.

Yes.  They basically use projected WAR (in USD) vs projected salary…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If another team has that much value on him, I'm moving him. I'd trade him for two Abreus. 

Or one Ketel Marte, who also has a surplus value of about $70mill.

Unless they do deal him straight up for Marte (1 in 1,000,000,006 chance) I doubt they get back any package valued at $70mill…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

$70M is too high, with his declining D, but his speed does add a lot of value.

How would BTV rate a trade like this?

Duran, Rafaela & Hicks 

for

Buxton & Ryan

Assuming Boston trades their two highest WAR values in one move, that deal strongly favors MN, with Boston trading $94mill for $76mill..

Of course that deal would never happen, as Buxton has been very open about his desire to stay in MN, and he has the 10/5 rights to ensure it…

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes.  They basically use projected WAR (in USD) vs projected salary…

So the question is why is Duran's projected WAR that much higher than Abreu's.  I assume it's based on a formula and that Abreu gets dinged for his durability issues.  But I'm just guessing obviously.  I don't use BTV.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So the question is why is Duran's projected WAR that much higher than Abreu's.  I assume it's based on a formula and that Abreu gets dinged for his durability issues.  But I'm just guessing obviously.  I don't use BTV.

You can get some projected WAR from Fangraphs…

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes.  They basically use projected WAR (in USD) vs projected salary…

And how much do we necessarily have to trust Steamer? What would happen if they switched to OOPSY or something else? 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We need one of both: a big power bat (high Ks or not) and a .300 type batter with a .360+ OBP.

Big power bat without high Ks isnt happening. That’s a recipe for Cooperstown.  The closest active player to giving you that profile is Juan Soto, and he won’t see free agency for 14 more years…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Assuming Boston trades their two highest WAR values in one move, that deal strongly favors MN, with Boston trading $94mill for $76mill..

Of course that deal would never happen, as Buxton has been very open about his desire to stay in MN, and he has the 10/5 rights to ensure it…

I guess that settles that. If he'd waive the 10/5 thingy, maybe add Yoshida and a few $million and call it even?

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

You can get some projected WAR from Fangraphs…

I think we have to expect further decline from Duran.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Big power bat without high Ks isnt happening. That’s a recipe for Cooperstown.  The closest active player to giving you that profile is Juan Soto, and he won’t see free agency for 14 more years…

Alonso's k rate was lower than BOS's k rate (barely). I think you can increase HR's, but grab a hitter that has an average k rate rather than an atrocious k rate like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Story, etc. 

Suarez's 29.8% k rate would fit in nicely with this team. 🤪

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess that settles that. If he'd waive the 10/5 thingy, maybe add Yoshida and a few $million and call it even?

I don't know why any team would be comfortable trading for the oft injured Buxton? 

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And how much do we necessarily have to trust Steamer? What would happen if they switched to OOPSY or something else? 

My understanding is they use multiple projections somehow.  Its a secret guarded as closely as the KFC spice combination that can make lumps of space age polymers taste like heavily salted chicken…

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know why any team would be comfortable trading for the oft injured Buxton? 

I'm not comfy, but I'm not comfy having no big hitters in our 2026 projected line-up, either. Plus, we'd be getting Ryan.