Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account

Recommended Posts

Community Moderator
Posted
Just now, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Baseball Reference has Abreu's errors at 5 and Refsnyders at 0.  Refsnyder can't improve on that, especially if Cora is playing the wrong guy who can't hit LH pitchers.

136 Innings and 30 PO's for Refsnyder vs 804 Innings and 203 PO's for Abreu. Abreu gets to balls more often in his time on the field PO's/Inning and played 6x more innings than Refsnyder. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Now, to be fair, he thinks anyone who doesn't agree with him is an idiot.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he is divorced.

Posted
1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he is divorced.

Not going to go there, but a while back I did paraphrase Colonel Potter:

"TYPM, just a guess.  Will Rogers never met you, did he?"

Posted
14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

136 Innings and 30 PO's for Refsnyder vs 804 Innings and 203 PO's for Abreu. Abreu gets to balls more often in his time on the field PO's/Inning and played 6x more innings than Refsnyder. 

Not to mention how many balls Abreu has cut off down the line or in the gap holding the batter to a single.  You know, that voodoo stuff that doesn't show up in the sacred Fielding Percentage.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Nick said:

good analysis......but do we move Duran for his trade value and having Password waiting on the wings....he may or may not work out but he sure looks to be a keeper.

 

37 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

There seems to be a lot of confusion about Abreu and his achievements.

Defensively, he finished behind both Rafaela and Duran in 2024 while both played CF and Duran had the higher number between, he and Rafaela but Rafaela was a rookie and has improved in 2025.  Abreu finished last but played RF and the other Right Fielders in the AL are not comparable to the defensive skills of the center fielders thus Abreu's GG should have an asterisk because he wasn't even close to a top 3 finish on defense in the OUTFIELD in the AL in 2024.

Next, Abreu in 2024 batted 338 times versus RH pitchers and hit .266 and batted just 61 times against LH hitters and hit .180 (86 points lower than against RH) That's why he is strictly a platoon player that requires another hitter to join him to face the LH pitchers which is a complete waste of a roster spot.  The funny thing about this situation or should I say Abreu's limitation is that he shares the platoon with Refsnyder for the most part.  In 2024 Refsnyder hit .302 with a 941 OPS against LH pitchers so he clearly was a MASSIVE improvement over Abreu hitting against those LH pitchers.  The surprise is that Refsnyder also batted .267 (1 point higher than Abreu) against RH pitchers!!! 

So, Refsnyder hit better than Abreu against both LH and RH pitchers, yet Abreu got to play more.  That speaks volumes to the bias I continue to complain about with respect to Cora.  Refsnyder should have gotten more at bats than Abreu in 2024 based on performance.  Fun fact, Refsnyder's defensive numbers this year are better than Abreu's in RF!!!!  

Duran in 2024 played in 160 games making him the most durable player on the team.

Duran put up an 8.7 WAR, hit .285/.342/.492/.834 with 34 SBs and an OPS+ of 132

So if we all assume Anthony needs to be in LF for the next decade it comes down to who should be in the other two outfield positions.  Duran performed the best of all other outfielders in 2024 while playing CF.  Usually that gives him the edge for that spot and should.  That just leaves right field.

Rafaela is the best defender on the team, Refsnyder proved to be the best all-around hitter among Rafaela, Refsnyder and Abreu and when compared to Abreu he outhit him against both RH and LH pitchers BUT Rafaela's defense is superlative and against the weak defenders in the AL he has a great chance of winning a platinum glove annually if he plays RF like Mookie did.

So ranking the RF options I believe Rafaela is #1, Refsnyder is #2 based on his 2024 and 2025 performance and finishing in last place in Abreu who can't hit LH pitchers and is being outperformed on offense and defense by Refsnyder in 2025.  

This data from Baseball Reference documents the bias that exists with Cora's decision making.  Abreu has NEVER belonged in the starting line-up whether it's a RH or LH pitcher.  He's a bench hitter and a potential 4th outfielder as long as LH pitchers aren't starting that day.

People can cheer for Abreu to play all they want, the facts show that he has no business being in the starting line-up if you go by past performance.

Interesting, but dead wrong on Abreu.  His DWAR is 1.2 vs Duran's 0.3 primarily because he has the arm to play RF which Duran does not have, which is why he is in LF.  Abreu's OPS is .811 vs Duran's .787.  Duran's better against righties, .886 vs .828, but Abreu is better against lefties, .721 vs .583.  Duran has the higher WAR, 3.8 to 3.3, because he's great on the basepaths and has played in more games.  Both have 69 rbi's. 

For my money, the two best Sox outfielders by a wide margin are Anthony and Rafaela.   Anthony is another Ted Williams (not really) and Rafaela is fantastic in CF.  His OPS in June and July combined was .860--so maybe he can hit too.  

I think the reason why the Sox want to keep Duran and why other teams want him more than Abreu is that he has terrific crowd appeal--which Abreu lacks.  

I have argued the Sox should keep all 4 outfielders, but now I think it makes sense to trade Duran or Abreu.  If Ref stays, he can be the 4th outfielder.  So could Campbell if he doesn't get 1b next spring.  

Cora's mistake was in playing Rafaela at 2b so that Anthony, Duran, and Abreu could all play the outfield against righty starters.  I understand the logic, but it absolutely did not work. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Not to mention how many balls Abreu has cut off down the line or in the gap holding the batter to a single.  You know, that voodoo stuff that doesn't show up in the sacred Fielding Percentage.

He's a damn good fielder. Eye test. DRS. OAA. RF/9. Great arm. 

But his only "skill" is being Hispanic, so that's why he gets to play.

Posted
38 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Baseball Reference has Abreu's errors at 5 and Refsnyders at 0.  Refsnyder can't improve on that, especially if Cora is playing the wrong guy who can't hit LH pitchers.

One more time.  Abreu's OPS vs lefties is .721 and Duran's is .583.  

Posted
5 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

ABSOLUTLELY NOT!!!!  

Baseball is about maximizing defense not favoring certain players.  Clearly the data shows that to maximize the defense RAFAELA like MOOKIE should be in RF.  Duran is an all-star quality defender in CF as he proved in 2024.  RAFAELA is the best overall defender and belongs in RF where he plays 81 games at the most difficult position in Fenway.  Anthony follows in the footsteps of the great Ted Williams, Yaz and Jim Rice and should play LF for his entire career.

Lessening the defense so Abreu a platoon hitter can start in RF is typical of Cora and his bias.  He's the 3rd best defender behind Rafaela and Duran and he certainly doesn't deserve to start before Anthony in the outfield considering he's a platoon hitter.  At best, Abreu should be a platoon DH with Refsnyder but to me that's not fair to Yoshida who is costing the team $18Million a year.  Yoshida should be the DH and Refsnyder who can play all outfield positions can be the 4th outfielder which completely eliminates the wasted roster spot Abreu fills as a platoon hitter.  For 2025, carrying a part time player who is a late inning pinch hitter is fine because of his power but going forward Boston needs more complete players to roster so the 13 spots for hitters is maximized.  Garcia should fight for the 4th outfielder spot in 2026 versus Refsnyder and Abreu needs to be traded for pitching.

Duran can't hit lefties, period.  Abreu has the higher OPS and the same rbi's, 69, despite playing in fewer games.  And anyone who claims Duran is in any way comparable to Rafaela in CF is out of his mind.  He's got the wheels, but absolutely no instinct on where the ball is going.  

 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

One more time.  Abreu's OPS vs lefties is .721 and Duran's is .583.  

Duran's .445 OPS was also worse in his first 2 seasons than Abreu's.514.

First 3 seasons:

.607 Abreu 140 PAs

.570 Duran 120 PAs

Career:

.616 Duran

.607 Abreu

2024-2025:

.629 Duran

.624 Abreu

Looks like splitting hairs.

Posted

But... Refsnyder hasn't dropped any of the fly balls, line drives or bloopers he couldn't get a good jump on to track down and reach! 

He hasn't even made any throwing Es on balls that got by him that other outfielders retrieved after backing him up!!

Though he speaks fluent English!!!

Posted
1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

136 Innings and 30 PO's for Refsnyder vs 804 Innings and 203 PO's for Abreu. Abreu gets to balls more often in his time on the field PO's/Inning and played 6x more innings than Refsnyder. 

Yet another metric flaw.  Game situations dictate the distance from the player to the ball and they are never repeated and completely unplanned so a fielder's distance to the ball is irrelevant because it will never happen again and is completely random.  Whether he catches it is absolutely critical to the success of the team so having 0 errors means Refsnyder helped the team more because he didn't control where the balls were hit, he only controlled his ability to field the ones that were hit and he was perfect.

And who is to say if Cora had played the better player, Refsnyder for the exact same innings that Abreu played that Refsnyder wouldn't have made as many or more catches and less errors?  That's a hypothetical, just like all metrics.  Actual results are all that matter.  The hypothetical is just some party estimating what might have happened with absolutely no certainty or accuracy. 

This topic was a sidebar compared to the meat of the information presented that showed Abreu is a lesser player than Refsnyder, Rafaela and Duran because he provides less value per game played and he's only facing RH pitchers for the most part..

Community Moderator
Posted
23 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Yet another metric flaw.  Game situations dictate the distance from the player to the ball and they are never repeated and completely unplanned so a fielder's distance to the ball is irrelevant because it will never happen again and is completely random.  Whether he catches it is absolutely critical to the success of the team so having 0 errors means Refsnyder helped the team more because he didn't control where the balls were hit, he only controlled his ability to field the ones that were hit and he was perfect.

And who is to say if Cora had played the better player, Refsnyder for the exact same innings that Abreu played that Refsnyder wouldn't have made as many or more catches and less errors?  That's a hypothetical, just like all metrics.  Actual results are all that matter.  The hypothetical is just some party estimating what might have happened with absolutely no certainty or accuracy. 

This topic was a sidebar compared to the meat of the information presented that showed Abreu is a lesser player than Refsnyder, Rafaela and Duran because he provides less value per game played and he's only facing RH pitchers for the most part..

Abreu is the 2nd best defensive OFer on the Sox. 99% of evaluators would agree with this. Your opinion is unique.

Posted
43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu is the 2nd best defensive OFer on the Sox. 99% of evaluators would agree with this. Your opinion is unique.

99% would rank Refsnyder and Yoshida as the worst defensive OF'ers on the team, too.

Posted
2 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Yet another metric flaw.  Game situations dictate the distance from the player to the ball and they are never repeated and completely unplanned so a fielder's distance to the ball is irrelevant because it will never happen again and is completely random.  Whether he catches it is absolutely critical to the success of the team so having 0 errors means Refsnyder helped the team more because he didn't control where the balls were hit, he only controlled his ability to field the ones that were hit and he was perfect.

And who is to say if Cora had played the better player, Refsnyder for the exact same innings that Abreu played that Refsnyder wouldn't have made as many or more catches and less errors?  That's a hypothetical, just like all metrics.  Actual results are all that matter.  The hypothetical is just some party estimating what might have happened with absolutely no certainty or accuracy. 

This topic was a sidebar compared to the meat of the information presented that showed Abreu is a lesser player than Refsnyder, Rafaela and Duran because he provides less value per game played and he's only facing RH pitchers for the most part..

So hits are not actual results.  Our pitching staff will be relieved…

Posted

Rafaela should be 2B (if at all).  His OBP of 0.284 (just slightly higher than Hamiltons 0.278). That alone should get him sent down to the minors, if anything, just to reset.  He needs to be more patient.  For me, Duran is not a good defensive outfielder.  At times he seems lost.  

Posted

When a player is evaluated, the team should look at all their attributes.  Rafaela at 17 was added as an international player and played in the DOSL in his first season.  His .271 average and .706 OPS was adequate for a 17 yr old player.  His walk rate was .055 which is roughly average.  He stole 19 bases in 26 attempts so he had good speed.  He K'd 39 times in 203 at bats (19%).  He played 44 games at 3B and 11 at SS in 2018 his first season.  His fielding % at 3B was .957 and SS was .952 (very similar to Mayer when he broke in at an older age).  

Rafaela in 2018 was under the tutelage of the Red Sox organization.  He is a product of THEIR development.  He had tons of raw talent and what did Boston do to develop it? 

At age 18 he went to ROK ball and again split time at three positions 3B, SS and 2B.  His 3B defense was bad 4 errors and low fielding % and his best position was 2B with a league average or better performance.  He hit .248 at ROK with a .754 OPS and 9 of 11 SBs.  This was a completely unimpressive year much like Mayer's early years except no injury.  

His 19 yr old season was lost to COVID.  So in 2021 he returned at A ball at age 20 and put up more very average numbers .251/.305/.444/.729 with 23 out of 26 SBs in 102 games.  Once again his walk rate was .054 nearly identical to what he did at age 17.  His K rate was 21.1% (about 2 points higher than at 17).  On defense we have to ask ourselves what the coaching staff was doing, and it shows how bad it was back in 2021 with Bloom as GM.  Rafaela played 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF and RF during his 102 game season.  Exactly how does a young foreign ball player get comfortable at a position when he plays 6 of them?  What stunts development of players?  Bad coaching and this coaching was pathetic.  Is it surprising his hitting didn't come around much while playing a different position nearly every game?  

Fast forward to 2022 at age 21 he was promoted to Hi-A where he finally started to show his potential at hitting despite being asked to play 2B, SS and CF at Hi-A and SS and CF at AA.  Ceddanne put up an excellent set of hitting numbers at Hi-A .330/.368/.594/.962 with 14 of 16 SBs.  Then at AA he regressed a bit with a stat line of .278/.324/.500/.824 with 14 of 19 SBs.  His K rate at Hi-A was 24.4% and at AA it was back down to 21.8%.  His walk rate at Hi-A dropped to .038 and at AA it was back up to .046 (roughly average).  

In 2023 at age 22 Ceddanne started at AA for 60 games posting .294/.332/.441/.773 with 30 of 38 SBs and a K rate of 22.4% and walk rate of .038 like he had Hi-A showing the coaches were not hammering home the need to be selective at the plate.  Rafaela played 48 games at AAA in 2023 posting .312/.370/.618/.988 with 6 out of 11 SBs and a K rate of 24.1% and walk rate of a career high of .058 (above average).  The coaching staff for the second straight year had kept his defensive positions limited to SS and CF with 84 in CF and 15 at SS. 

Rafaela got called up with 22 games left in the 2023 season. On 8/28/23 he pinch hit for a struggling Devers and went 1 for 1 in his debut.  The next game versus HOU Rafaela sat while Story played SS hitting .194 and Adam Duvall played CF.  The following game Ceddanne started at SS and hit lead-off for Boston vs Houston facing Framber Valdez.  He went 1 for 4 with a double, a run scored and an RBI.  Boston lost 7-4 and flew to KC for their next series.

In KC Cora sat Rafaela again and he got in midway through the game for Duvall and went 1 for 2 raising his average to .429.  Then next game he sat again and PH for Yoshida and took CF.  He K'd during his one at bat.  Then next game he again was used as a defensive replacement for Yoshida and played CF with no at bats.  Boston went to TB and again he was a late inning defensive replacement for Yoshida while Wilyer Abreu was put in the leadoff spot vs RH'd Civale.  Typical squirrelly Cora move.  Made no sense considering he was batting 71 points lower than Rafaela and was an inferior defender. 

The next day Cora started Rafaela at SS and batted him lead off, a long overlooked logical move.  Ceddanne went 3 for 6 and scored two runs bringing his average up to .429Naturally, Cora shook things up again the next game and started Abreu in the lead-off spot and he K'd 3 times before Rafaela replaced him and went 1 for 1 raising his average to .467 and lowering Abreu's to .250 This time Rafaela played 2B, another ridiculous choice by Cora considering he hadn't played there for years.

Boston flew home to play BAL and Rafaela sat once again and came in late in the game and struck out in his 1 at bat while playing 2B again.  BAL destroyed the makeshift line-up Cora used.  The 2nd game vs BAL he sat again and pinch ran for J Turner. scoring a run and going 1 for 1 raising his average to .471.  The following game BOS finally won and Rafaela hit lead-off and played CF.  He scored a run and lowered his average to .381.  The Yankees were next in town and Rafaela played SS this time and batted 7th not lead-off.  This marked the end of the days when Cora considered Rafaela a lead-off hitter and he was relegated to the bottom three spots in the line-up ever since.  It makes no sense that when he gets hot he never moves back up to the top of the order, it's just another bias of Cora's that Rafaela must live with.

Rafaela is the best defender in the outfield on the team NOT A 2B.

Rafaela had a walk rate of .051 in the minors and that has dropped to .038 in the MLB.  The coaching staff should be all over him to return his walk rate to league average .050.

Rafaela had a K rate of 21.6% in the minors and that has risen to 25.4% in the MLB BUT in 2025 he has worked hard to lower it to a very reasonable 20.7%.

Batting out of the 9 hole he has produced the 4th most runs scored on the team in 2024 and the 3rd most runs scored in 2025 so far.  He's also produced the 5th most RBIs out of the 9 hole in 2025 and in 2024 he produced the 2nd most RBIs!!

BASHING Rafaela, Duran and Campbell has become common place these day.  There is no valid justification for it other than haters will be haters.  These three young ball players are legitimate MLB quality ball players with the potential to make the all-star team any year.  Anthony has moved into the same group with his excellence in 2025.  This group includes the top 3 outfielders in the organization and all we need is for fans to recognize the attributes of Rafaela are extremely similar to Mookie Betts our badly mistreated franchise player.  He is fast, a great defender with an above average arm which makes him perfect for right field in Fenway where half his games are played.  Duran with his speed, excellent glove but lesser arm is perfect for CF as he demonstrated in 2024.  And last but not least is the young franchise player as of 2025 Roman Anthony who fits perfectly into the greatest legacy position in BOS history, Left Field where Ted, Yaz and Rice all excelled.

All we need is a new manager with actual knowledge of the game including how to build a batting order, how to determine optimum defense and how to manage a pitching staff.  Three critical skills that Cora lacks.

 

Community Moderator
Posted
8 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Rafaela should be 2B (if at all).  His OBP of 0.284 (just slightly higher than Hamiltons 0.278). That alone should get him sent down to the minors, if anything, just to reset.  He needs to be more patient.  For me, Duran is not a good defensive outfielder.  At times he seems lost.  

He’s never been a patient hitter. They tried it in MiLB and it failed. His batting only works when he’s aggressive. He has poor pitch recognition.

Posted
3 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

All we need is a new manager with actual knowledge of the game including how to build a batting order, how to determine optimum defense and how to manage a pitching staff.  Three critical skills that Cora lacks.

And a second baseman who can catch a throw from a catcher, and won't get picked off 3rd base talking to a coach. Then maybe our best outfielder can just play outfield.

Posted
26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And a second baseman who can catch a throw from a catcher, and won't get picked off 3rd base talking to a coach. Then maybe our best outfielder can just play outfield.

Hamilton had a nice first game back.  Maybe he will get the bat going again and resolve the 2b issue the rest of the way.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hamilton had a nice first game back.  Maybe he will get the bat going again and resolve the 2b issue the rest of the way.

With lefties Fried and Rodon scheduled tonight and Sunday, still expect AC will start Ceddanne at 2B, Romy at 1B, and an outfield of Anthony-Duran-Password (maybe switch the corners, since Roman is already used to the bleacher preachers in RF).

Posted
1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hamilton had a nice first game back.  Maybe he will get the bat going again and resolve the 2b issue the rest of the way.

He had a nice stretch, last summer, after a poor start. If he can repeat that, we might be in very nice shape to end 2025.

Posted

Rooting for a .178 hitter to get the bat going again begs the question, when was it ever going?  He plays thanks to Cora.  He's never earned a minute of playing time.  He's a base stealer who gets picked off due to a short attention span.  He can't steal first base, so he belongs in the minors his whole career.

Rafaela Duran and Anthony should be playing RF, CF and LF respectively.

Cora needs to bring placeholders to the ballpark like he did in the old days when Devers.  He basically set up human "orange cones" around 3B when Devers couldn't play so everyone knew it was his spot despite Devers' complete inability to play it.  Dalbec wasn't allowed to play 3B despite being second on the depth chart, Cora used slugs so nobody would see what good baseball fans saw, Devers couldn't handle defense at 3B.

Now Mayer has the same deal going with Cora, so he continues to put out his human "orange cones" in an attempt to reserve the injury prone Mayer a spot in the infield.  Hamilton hitting .178, Toto hitting .171 in the second half, Gonzalez hitting .233 in the second half, they are all orange cones ensuring nobody better than Mayer plays 2B.  Heck, I expect Cora to use Sogard who has played 8 games at 2B to be in the mix or Eaton who hasn't played there at all.  This behavior perfectly mimics what he did for Devers.  Think about how many wins that cost Boston over the years!!! 

Why would Cora do this?  The answer is obvious.  To keep Campbell from returning and getting hot like he was before Cora dropped him in the order.  Cora would risk eliminating Mayer's current future spot in 2026 if Campbell flourishes like he did in 2024.  Campbell has been a fly in the ointment for the Red Sox manager.  Campbell came out of nowhere to be a better prospect than Mayer and now he has to deal with how he can treat him to create setbacks like he did for Duran and Rafaela in past years.  Thus, Cora is setting up human orange cones at 2B with ridiculous alternatives like a .178 Hamilton when Campbell is available.  If this sounds too devious consider a guy setting up fans in the outfield to relay signals to the dugout to bang a drum to cheat for the hitter.  This is relatively simple divisive tactics in comparison.

Abreu has a similar deal with Cora.  It's obvious to even the lesser knowledgeable fans that Rafaela is by FAR the best RF on the roster and that makes Duran the best CF on the roster behind Rafaela and that leaves Anthony in LF. 

By NEVER using Rafaela in RF the obvious is never observed by the short-sighted fans that think CF should be Rafaela's position despite RF being the more difficult position in Fenway so Cora can orange cone RF for Abreu who as a platoon hitter should never have climbed above a 4th outfielder status. 

Now that Abreu is out, I am willing to bet Cora still won't go to the obvious configuration with Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  It's too logical and it leaves no place for his favorite platoon hitting lefty that has yet to put back-to-back quality months of hitting together throughout his 3 seasons in the MLB.  Inconsistency, a lack of ability at hitting LH pitchers and the guy still gets opportunities to be the starter in RF where Rafaela far exceeds him.  The bias never ends with Cora.  All we can do is root for his hap-hazard line-ups to do him in like in years past so Breslow has grounds to fire him and we can bring a REAL manager to BOS; one chosen by Breslow to lead the team in 2026. 

Community Moderator
Posted

Campbell '25 at 2b

968 Fielding % MLB

949 Fielding % AAA

Even ignoring widely used metrics, there's no way Campbell is coming back to BOS as a 2b. It has nothing to do with Cora and everything to do with Campbell's athleticism and inability to field the position at a high level. The best fit for him is 1b/LF, but that puts more pressure on the bat. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

KC may become an athletic DH, someday, which pressure even more from the bat.

Even if he's only an athletic supporter, he'll still get to sit at the cool table with all the jocks.

Posted
3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Even if he's only an athletic supporter, he'll still get to sit at the cool table with all the jocks.

As long as no Mansieres are on that table, okay.

Posted
Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

IMHO, the team's best defensive outfielder s/b playing CF. Watching other MLB teams shows me most managers feel the same way.

If JBJ wasn't on the Sox the same time as Betts, then Betts would have been the CF.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Talk Sox Caretaker Fund
The Talk Sox Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Red Sox community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...