Red Sox (Buehler) vs Phillies (Wheeler): 7/21/25, 6:45pm

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Meh.  The rules heavily favor the hitter on catcher interference.  Plus catchers are expected to frame pitches which sometimes includes pushing the mitt forward.  

Besides, there is no way Hicks was going to get out of the jam with 3 on and no one out in the 10th.  

He was being a true Captain by putting the loss on himself and not the pitcher. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Blaming Cora or Narvaez is ridiculous.  Our starter was better than their starter who is one of the top pitchers in baseball.  They lost because once again they are simply not scoring enough runs.  This is an ongoing problem that was masked by a winning streak mostly against bad teams but it will remain a problem all season. 

[Nick]

Bases loaded, no out and the pitcher struggling......we're going to blame the loss on catcher's interference call?

Sure let's not mention we have now scored 3 runs in 3 losing games after the break.

Boston sports pages are pathetic.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Blaming Cora or Narvaez is ridiculous.  Our starter was better than their starter who is one of the top pitchers in baseball.  They lost because once again they are simply not scoring enough runs.  This is an ongoing problem that was masked by a winning streak mostly against bad teams but it will remain a problem all season. 

Run scoring is a problem all across baseball.

Red Sox 4.90 per game

Phillies 4.57 per game

Average team 4.39 per game

Pitching is dominant in this game.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He was being a true Captain by putting the loss on himself and not the pitcher. 

Just the opposite.  He was aggressively trying to get the first out with the bases full in the bottom of the 10th.  

We have all seen the Sox get 3 outs with the bases full and no one scoring this season.   It's rare, but possible.  

I'm just defending Narvaez on general principles.  He became the Sox #1 catcher way back in early April.  

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Blaming Cora or Narvaez is ridiculous.  Our starter was better than their starter who is one of the top pitchers in baseball.  They lost because once again they are simply not scoring enough runs.  This is an ongoing problem that was masked by a winning streak mostly against bad teams but it will remain a problem all season. 

Agree completely with your first statement but only partly with your second.  The Sox were going against the best righty starter in MLB and actually scored 2 runs off him in 6 IP.  That was enough to win had not Narvaez had the passed ball leading to an unearned run.  Narvaez is rated as one of the best defensive catchers in MLB.  

 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, FredLynn said:

My guess is that at the end of the year his OPS will be in the .700 range. And he still won’t learn plate discipline. It will be his Armageddon and his career won’t be a long one because of this defect.

He has improved, recently, but when you look at his full career- minors and majors- he barely moved the needle, at all, until very recently. He has such a long way to go in this area, that it is probably impossible he can ever get to even a respectable level on K zone discipline.

His current career OPS is .705, and he is still very young. If he has a long career, he could decline as he gets past 30-32, but I gotta figure he should have a higher OPS than .700 as he get to peak prime years.

It will likely keep him from ever being able to stay near or over .800, even for several seasons. He might get close for one season, maybe this year, but unless he keeps improving as much as he did, this year- over and over again.

On another angle, there are a few players who have very high K rates, but still put up very good OPS. Most have much higher BB rates that Rafaela has even come close to doing, so I can understand thinking he'll never get there. I have serious doubts, too.

Here are a few High K batters who are over .770 career w BB%.

.820 T Story 28.2 K%/ 8.0 BB%

.802 Teoscar 29.2%/7.0%

.774 Chris Davis 32.9K%/ 9.9% BB%

Rafaela is .705 with 24.2% K and 3.4% BB. What's hard to gauge is how real is this year's improvement and can or will it continue. Last year he was at a 26.4% K rate and 2.6 BB rate, which was maybe the worst in the history of MLB. Then...

26.4% to 18.8% K rate from '24 to '25

and

2.6% BB% to 4.5%

He's got power, so his SLG can carry him a bit, but he is not likely going to be Teoscar with power. 4.5% BB rate is far behind the 3 players I listed.

Looking at the worst BB/K numbers with highest OPS,  since 1972, I found.... (Rafaela's is .14 career but .24 in 2025.)

.20 Y Diaz .760

.21 S Perez.762

.23 D Dahl .773

.24 T Carpenter .832 (just 1148 PAs)

.24 Bo Jackson .784

.24 Teoscar .802

It is a rare thing to see: I admit.

I think we have to hope he can improve on 0.24, otherwise he will be one of two guys in over 50 years to hit over .800 and have that bad of a rate.

[Duran Is The Man]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Run scoring is a problem all across baseball.

Red Sox 4.90 per game

Phillies 4.57 per game

Average team 4.39 per game

Pitching is dominant in this game.

except for our pitching.

runs allowed per game: Red Sox 4.35

only the A's, O's and Angels are allowing more RPG in the AL.

 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

except for our pitching.

runs allowed per game: Red Sox 4.35

only the A's, O's and Angels are allowing more RPG in the AL.

 

Park factors make our hitting look better and pitching look worse than it is.

BOS is 10th in wRC+ (105)

BOS is 5th in ERA- (but our D allows many runs to score) The Sox are 8th in xFIP. (13th in SIERA)

 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Park factors make our hitting look better and pitching look worse than it is.

BOS is 10th in wRC+ (105)

BOS is 5th in ERA- (but our D allows many runs to score) The Sox are 8th in xFIP. (13th in SIERA)

 

thanks for clearing that up and reminding me of what a terrible defense we have. 

[illinoisredsox]

32 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

except for our pitching.

runs allowed per game: Red Sox 4.35

only the A's, O's and Angels are allowing more RPG in the AL.

 

Actually, so have the Pale Hose and the Mariners.

You’re splitting hairs though. The AL average runs per game allowed is 4.33.  Since every team has played about 100 games to date, that means over the course of the entire season, the Sox have allowed a grand total of 2 more runs over the average AL team.  One more thing we can blame on Abraham Toro  since he allowed 2 runs in his mop up relief appearance.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Blaming Cora or Narvaez is ridiculous.  Our starter was better than their starter who is one of the top pitchers in baseball.  They lost because once again they are simply not scoring enough runs.  This is an ongoing problem that was masked by a winning streak mostly against bad teams but it will remain a problem all season. 

It’s one thing to get shut down by Colin Rea or Cade Horton.  But they scored twice against Zack Wheeler, whom Philly pays in excess of $40mill. AAV.  He’s not paid that much because he’s easy to score off…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Actually, so have the Pale Hose and the Mariners.

You’re splitting hairs though. The AL average runs per game allowed is 4.33.  Since every team has played about 100 games to date, that means over the course of the entire season, the Sox have allowed a grand total of 2 more runs over the average AL team.  One more thing we can blame on Abraham Toro  since he allowed 2 runs in his mop up relief appearance.

Just release Toro already.

Guy can’t hit anymore Can’t pitch either. And he hasn’t sold a single Fenway Frank.  Someone remind again me what he brings to this team…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

thanks for clearing that up and reminding me of what a terrible defense we have. 

This was rather shocking to me.

+ Narvaez at C (one of the best in MLB)

+ Story at SS (replacing below avg D at SS in '24)

+ Bregman at 3B (replacing the worst in MLB)

+ a mix at 1B (replacing the worst in MLB)

+ Rafaela in CF full time

+ Duran in LF full time

2B remained a mess, but it was horrible in '24.

I'm confounded.

 

 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Just release Toro already.

Guy can’t hit anymore Can’t pitch either. And he hasn’t sold a single Fenway Frank.  Someone remind again me what he brings to this team…

He's really slumped badly. Have his splits vs RHPs been real bad, too, because Romy is not good vs RHPs. Who else plays 1B vs R?

Until we get someone, maybe a DFA is not the best idea.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He has improved, recently, but when you look at his full career- minors and majors- he barely moved the needle, at all, until very recently. He has such a long way to go in this area, that it is probably impossible he can ever get to even a respectable level on K zone discipline.

His current career OPS is .705, and he is still very young. If he has a long career, he could decline as he gets past 30-32, but I gotta figure he should have a higher OPS than .700 as he get to peak prime years.

It will likely keep him from ever being able to stay near or over .800, even for several seasons. He might get close for one season, maybe this year, but unless he keeps improving as much as he did, this year- over and over again.

On another angle, there are a few players who have very high K rates, but still put up very good OPS. Most have much higher BB rates that Rafaela has even come close to doing, so I can understand thinking he'll never get there. I have serious doubts, too.

Here are a few High K batters who are over .770 career w BB%.

.820 T Story 28.2 K%/ 8.0 BB%

.802 Teoscar 29.2%/7.0%

.774 Chris Davis 32.9K%/ 9.9% BB%

Rafaela is .705 with 24.2% K and 3.4% BB. What's hard to gauge is how real is this year's improvement and can or will it continue. Last year he was at a 26.4% K rate and 2.6 BB rate, which was maybe the worst in the history of MLB. Then...

26.4% to 18.8% K rate from '24 to '25

and

2.6% BB% to 4.5%

He's got power, so his SLG can carry him a bit, but he is not likely going to be Teoscar with power. 4.5% BB rate is far behind the 3 players I listed.

Looking at the worst BB/K numbers with highest OPS,  since 1972, I found.... (Rafaela's is .14 career but .24 in 2025.)

.20 Y Diaz .760

.21 S Perez.762

.23 D Dahl .773

.24 T Carpenter .832 (just 1148 PAs)

.24 Bo Jackson .784

.24 Teoscar .802

It is a rare thing to see: I admit.

I think we have to hope he can improve on 0.24, otherwise he will be one of two guys in over 50 years to hit over .800 and have that bad of a rate.

He’s actually at .782 this year. That would be fine with me, given his defensive abilities. His career .705 OPS isn’t ok. If he can maintain his 2015 numbers despite his K/BB and poor plate discipline all year I’ll be happy with his performance. But I expect his performance will migrate down to his career numbers as the season progresses and everyone gets tired.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

He’s actually at .782 this year. That would be fine with me, given his defensive abilities. His career .705 OPS isn’t ok. If he can maintain his 2015 numbers despite his K/BB and poor plate discipline all year I’ll be happy with his performance. But I expect his performance will migrate down to his career numbers as the season progresses and everyone gets tired.

Yes, his career is .705 and you expect that to decline to .700 as he nears then enters prime, despite showing significant (yet still much more to go) improvement on K and BB rates.

Let's revisit this in 5 years and when his contract expires.

I'd predict .740, so I'm not way more optimistic than you are. I think there is a decent chance he hits .775 from 2025 to the end of his contract. I expect you put the odds at that happening as less than 5%. I'd put them at 25-33%.

[Kimmi]

17 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

My game assessment was terrible because in retrospect I think this was one of the Sox best games this season even though they lost.  They were going against not only a Phillies team that wins 2/3 of their games at home, but against the best righty starter in MLB. 

The Sox should have been killed, but instead Duran got that solo dinger in the 1st and later Story tied it at 2 in the 6th.  Buehler had one of the best Sox starts this season--7 IP (at Philly against a lineup ranked 12th in MLB in runs scored).  

I would also like to heavily discount the catcher interference in the 10th.  It probably was, but that's because the rules on catcher interference heavily favor the hitter.  Plus I honestly don't think Hicks was going to get out of the bases loaded and no outs jam in the 10th.  

 

Those late-inning and extra-inning losses are always the toughest to take, especially when it's a 1-run loss, but as you pointed out, there are many positives to take away from that game.  I figured the Phillies would win that game by a fairly wide margin.  That we played them so closely is a good sign.  I'm still upset that we lost though.

[Kimmi]

The outcome of one-run games is mostly due to randomness, not skill or talent.  IMO, there really isn't anyone who deserves blame for the loss.

The Red Sox outhit the Phillies by one hit.

The 16 Ks by the Red Sox hitters might be a problem, however.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, his career is .705 and you expect that to decline to .700 as he nears then enters prime, despite showing significant (yet still much more to go) improvement on K and BB rates.

Let's revisit this in 5 years and when his contract expires.

I'd predict .740, so I'm not way more optimistic than you are. I think there is a decent chance he hits .775 from 2025 to the end of his contract. I expect you put the odds at that happening as less than 5%. I'd put them at 25-33%.

This is in the category of “I’ll believe it when I see it”. I think he’ll be in the .700-.720 range because he has a basic flaw that’s very hard to overcome. And that kind of OPS simply isn’t good enough.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

The outcome of one-run games is mostly due to randomness, not skill or talent.  IMO, there really isn't anyone who deserves blame for the loss.

The Red Sox outhit the Phillies by one hit.

The 16 Ks by the Red Sox hitters might be a problem, however.

Ken Pomeroy uses "luck" statistically when he evaluates Div I mens basketball teams.  I think his criterion is winning/losing games by 3 pts or less.  

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

This is in the category of “I’ll believe it when I see it”. I think he’ll be in the .700-.720 range because he has a basic flaw that’s very hard to overcome. And that kind of OPS simply isn’t good enough.

.700 to .720 encompases the MLB avergae OPS for 2025 (.717.)

The 2025 MLB OPS for CF is .695.

He might be at .710 and be better than the MLB CF average OPS and be GG caliber on D, and that's not "good enough" for you?

Of course, the MLB in CF could go up above .720 going forward. It has been this, the last 5 years:

.721 in '21

.688 in '22

.730 in '23

.697 in '24

.695, so far in '25

Of course, I'd like better than .720, and that is your high end, but Rafaela's D and baserunning makes up for his possible mediocre O.

He'd be a firm plus, IMO at .705 or .720.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

.700 to .720 encompases the MLB avergae OPS for 2025 (.717.)

The 2025 MLB OPS for CF is .695.

He might be at .710 and be better than the MLB CF average OPS and be GG caliber on D, and that's not "good enough" for you?

Of course, the MLB in CF could go up above .720 going forward. It has been this, the last 5 years:

.721 in '21

.688 in '22

.730 in '23

.697 in '24

.695, so far in '25

Of course, I'd like better than .720, and that is your high end, but Rafaela's D and baserunning makes up for his possible mediocre O.

He'd be a firm plus, IMO at .705 or .720.

Its a matter of context. If the rest of the team is bashing the baseball or out pitching is outstanding. Right now neither is the case. Only then I am OK with an average CF offensively. As you know our offense has come back down to earth and with guys like Wong and Toro and others playing semi regularly we cannot afford a CF with an OPS in the .700 range. We have been struggling to score runs of late although for a while we were bashing.. I do not expect that to continue, not with the level of talent on the team. Since the ASB we are 29th in runs scored and 25th in OPS. And the Ks cannot contiue-we are striking out more than every team but two. Gotta make contact to win games. This is not ok if the goal is to play baseball in Oct.

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Ken Pomeroy uses "luck" statistically when he evaluates Div I mens basketball teams.  I think his criterion is winning/losing games by 3 pts or less.  

I don't follow basketball closely enough, but that makes sense.  When games end in a score that is so close, there is luck involved in who wins the game.  In baseball, something as simple as a missed strike or ball call can make the difference in a 1-run game.  

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Its a matter of context. If the rest of the team is bashing the baseball or out pitching is outstanding. Right now neither is the case. Only then I am OK with an average CF offensively. As you know our offense has come back down to earth and with guys like Wong and Toro and others playing semi regularly we cannot afford a CF with an OPS in the .700 range. We have been struggling to score runs of late although for a while we were bashing.. I do not expect that to continue, not with the level of talent on the team. Since the ASB we are 29th in runs scored and 25th in OPS. And the Ks cannot contiue-we are striking out more than every team but two. Gotta make contact to win games. This is not ok if the goal is to play baseball in Oct.

We have faced some really good pitching since the All-Star break.  It's nice to think that good hitters should be able to get to those pitchers, but there's a reason why those pitchers are so good.