Article: Is Kristian Campbell The Answer To The Red Sox's First Base Problem?

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Borderline major leaguers are never the answer.  Why not just bring back Dalbec?

Exactly.  Plus it would be good for the fans at Fenway.  They loved him.  

[drewski6]

42 minutes ago, Charlie Hoke said:

How about giving Rob Refsnyder time at 1st base? He played there last in 2020 and his splits this year are more even than in the past. He seems a bit better than Sogard right now.

not against it

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Boy, do I hope I am wrong and you are dead right about Yoshida.  But I just as vehemently think Devers to 1b right now risks what looks to be his best hitting season ever.  Think Ortiz and JDM.  

Why not Anthony at 1b?  He's 6'3", not especially fast in the outifield, where he does take bad routes now and then, plus he doesn't have that good an arm.  

 

not against it

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That idea was thoroughly debunked, line by line.

🤪

I’ve got  a Novel idea. How about getting an actual 1B to play 1B, or better yet already having an actual 1B in the system who would be ready to go in situations like this, or last year, or 2023. Cora mentioned the other day all the 1B the Red Sox have tried at 1B since 2021 with Flintstone Schwarber, and then on to the likes of Franchy Strange Glove, and Arroyo. Casas is been brittle as they come, and yet no actual 1B backup was available to go. Romy, Toro, sogard, and neither of Campbell, or the much talked about Raffy are 1B, and now they are talking about learning the job on the fly with Campbell, or if posters on here had their way the much ragged on Raffy. Just poor roster construction to me in more ways than one. By all accounts the Red Sox tried to trade Casas this past offseason. Cora doesn’t want Raffy at 1B IMO, so what was the plan if that would have happened?

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, Charlie Hoke said:

How about giving Rob Refsnyder time at 1st base? He played there last in 2020 and his splits this year are more even than in thepast. He seems a bit better than Sogard right now.

The Red Sox tried him out for a day in Spring Training last season and then never went back to it even after Casas went down last year. It ain't happenin' 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Borderline major leaguers are never the answer.  Why not just bring back Dalbec?

Well I stated my preference (after Devers) of going out and acquiring a better player than all those guys. 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Boy, do I hope I am wrong and you are dead right about Yoshida.  But I just as vehemently think Devers to 1b right now risks what looks to be his best hitting season ever.  Think Ortiz and JDM.  

Why not Anthony at 1b?  He's 6'3", not especially fast in the outifield, where he does take bad routes now and then, plus he doesn't have that good an arm.  

 

Soxprospects.com has a different assessment of Anthony’s defense.

 

“Defense: Strong defensive instincts make up for only average foot speed. Takes efficient routes when moving laterally, but on occasion will be a step slow reading balls over his head. Has primarily played center field, but started playing corner outfield more often in July 2024. Profiles best in the corner outfield long-term, but could play center at least at the beginning of his major league career if needed. Potential above-average defensive profile in the corner and average in center field.

Arm: Above-average arm strength. Not a stand-out arm, but plenty for any outfield spot.”

 

Source: https://www.soxprospects.com/players/anthony-roman.htm

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve got  a Novel idea. How about getting an actual 1B to play 1B, or better yet already having an actual 1B in the system who would be ready to go in situations like this, or last year, or 2023. Cora mentioned the other day all the 1B the Red Sox have tried at 1B since 2021 with Flintstone Schwarber, and then on to the likes of Franchy Strange Glove, and Arroyo. Casas is been brittle as they come, and yet no actual 1B backup was available to go. Romy, Toro, sogard, and neither of Campbell, or the much talked about Raffy are 1B, and now they are talking about learning the job on the fly with Campbell, or if posters on here had their way the much ragged on Raffy. Just poor roster construction to me in more ways than one. By all accounts the Red Sox tried to trade Casas this past offseason. Cora doesn’t want Raffy at 1B IMO, so what was the plan if that would have happened?

They haven't had a decent plan for back-up 1B for years. It is one of the easier slots to fill, in an emergency, so if a team is going to skimp somewhere, this is a common area to do it.

Not making excuses. We have neglected it for a long time, and have gone with the idea that the worst defensive 1Bman in MLB, Casas will be "the guy."

It is an example of poor roster construction- agreed.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Soxprospects.com has a different assessment of Anthony’s defense.

It's easy to say anything on the internet. 

Alex Bregman really hasn't been worth his contract so far. 

Garrett Crochet? Bad trade! 

Sam Kennedy is a great guy. 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They haven't had a decent plan for back-up 1B for years. It is one of the easier slots to fill, in an emergency, so if a team is going to skimp somewhere, this is a common area to do it.

Not making excuses. We have neglected it for a long time, and have gone with the idea that the worst defensive 1Bman in MLB, Casas will be "the guy."

It is an example of poor roster construction- agreed.

It’s just not 1B. The Red Sox used 11 2B last year, and how many SS have they tried the last three years?

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s just not 1B. The Red Sox used 11 2B last year, and how many SS have they tried the last three years?

8

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

8

The only constant was 3B.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

7 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

We know the Sox value continuity, they don't want to make a guy learn a new position and learn how to be a big leaguer at the same time. 

They most certainly would not do that at the same time a kid who is not even 2 months into his mlb career is struggling and trying to figure out how to make adjustments.  They want him to work through this, they obviously have a lot of faith in him evidence by the contract extension they gave him.  They're not going to eff that up by moving him to 1B.   And they shouldn't. 

Mayer is one of baseballs top prospects projected to be an above average ss for years to come.  Any talk about moving him there (and breaking him into the majors) is also just not going to happen. 

I suppose these things could happen, it's not 100% out of the realm of possibility, but it's highly unlikely. 

Unfortunately if Devers does not want to move, you're going to have to go out and find someone to plug the hole. 

Sox should kick the tires with Baltimore on Ryan O'Hearn 

 

Campbell is making his first hitting adjustments and that process has slowed thanks to him focusing on yet another position other than his primary position of SS.  It's great that he's the most flexible of the three farm system stars but it sure seems like piling on all the responsibility has not been having a positive effect on his growth as an MLB player.

Mayer is highly-rated but we are still waiting for the player he is supposed to be.  Three mediocre years with injuries and one break-out season does not project to a star player at the next level.  The injuries make him unreliable and the .951 fielding percentage in the minors throws up a HUGE red flag about his defense at SS.  Maybe he would be better at 1B?  Also, the farm system is loaded with good shortstops.  Book marking a place for Mayer like Boston has done might stifle the growth of other excellent SSs who can field at an elite level like Campbell.

There is a log jam of players on the roster now that don't add value and some are expensive.  Maybe it's time to find a deal that clears out some dead weight and brings back a 1B for the future.  That means Casas, Yoshida, Abreu and some of the bit players can be moved so more farm players can be introduced to the MLB like Anthony, Mayer and possibly a couple of pitchers.  If Mayer is not given the job of 1B of the future, he's going to sit behind Story and his $23.3 Million dollar contract since his defense is far superior to Mayer's.  But if he can hit at the MLB level, Mayer being a utility infielder until Story ends his contract at the end of 2027 or 2028 should work out since Story is injury prone like Mayer.

Loved your comment  but I need to see a bigger sample size without injuries from Mayer.  We've been down this road before with Jeter Down's being declared a future star due to his metrics and then he was DFA'd 2 years later.  3 weak performances and 1 strong performance simply does not suggest a bright future.  Anything is possible but when one player outplays another player and earns a prestigious award like Minor League Player of the Year, the front office should put politics aside and look at performance and not screw with the guy that has higher performance to date and projects to be a better player.

 

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Options 2 and 3 are really bad. You also don't have much of a clue about Mayer's fielding or Campbell's power potential I guess. 

Without data clearly the comment about not having a clue is just an uninformed opinion often called a cheap shot.  You can't just voice your viewpoint.  That's a lack of maturity.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

There are a lot of "point in time" comments that have been made related to performance.  Casas started poorly but that isn't unusual because he's done that before and was fine.  So replacing him "should be easy" based on what he's done doesn't really apply.  It's replacing his entire season and what he's done historically that is being replaced.  Likewise, nobody expected Devers to be bad all season and he is now hitting.  In a few weeks he won't be and a few weeks after that he will be.  That's normal in a baseball season so taking pictures of results at a point in time is short sighted. 

Story is cold but will heat up.  He's an excellent fielder who has struggled hitting in Boston but he is fully capable of rebounding just like Devers and Duran have done this season. 

Campbell went to college as a SS, got forced into playing 2B for one season due to an incumbent SS who was in his last year at his college, then he got drafted and Boston put him at 2B because they love Mayer and thought they could be a middle infield duo for a decade or so.  Then, Boston sees Mayer struggling in 2023 and asks Campbell to split time at SS and 2B in 2024 and he wins Minor League Player of the Year.  He beats out Mayer in spring training for a spot on the roster and is asked to play 2B since Story was healthy.  He gets off to a hot start then teams adjust and he starts struggling at the bat.  As soon as that happens, someone decides to prepare the least prototypical 1B of the three top prospects to play 1B.  While Campbell has decent power, the infield corner positions are for the big power guys and both Anthony and Mayer have more power than Campbell and are far better choices if the team is going to not do the obvious and get a real 1B.  What makes Campbell an even worse choice is that he's dealing with his first adversity in baseball.  He was a star shortstop though his senior year of High Schoo, he was a star in college and then he won Minor League Player of the Year in his first full season in the minors.  He's learning how to deal with adversity right now so why would anyone think it's a good idea to pile on a change of position to distract him from learning how to deal with adversity.  It's completely illogical.

To conclude, Abreu hit great in April and horribly in May so depending on which picture you take he should either be traded or a full-time starter.  Neither is right, he's an excellent hitting outfielder who hasn't hit lefties yet.  It may happen some day and that will raise his value.  Point in time reviews of his performance have had huge swings since he got promoted.  Nothing wrong with streak hitters like Abreu and Dever as long as the lows aren't focused on more than their highs.

Rafaela can be described much like Abreu except he has had different hitting issues.  His defense is the best in the outfield and his hitting has been terrible due to his impatience.  The good news is he went from most Ks to last in Ks over the off season and he is walking a bit more so he is improving AND remains an extraordinarily productive hitter out of the 9 hole.  He has a bright future despite all the exaggerated point in time criticisms that he receives.

People are trying to predict success without the growing pains.  Bloom devastated the 2018 roster and the talent level went nearly to zero and now it's on the rise with Breslow and it takes time.  2025 needs to be a steppingstone to the future.  Too many prospects don't have the minimal two seasons under their belt to see how good they are.  Hitting minor league pitching or pitching to minor league hitters isn't' the same as doing it in the MLB.  Great success like Anthony and Campbell have had usually means success in the MLB but years of average play like Mayer has had is far more difficult to trend especially with all the injuries.

Anthony needs to be up and getting lots of playing time so someone needs to pick between Abreu a platoon hitter or Rafaela the best defender who is just now beginning to catch on with his hitting.  One needs to sit so Anthony can get experience sooner than later.   Mayer needs to spend much more time in AAA to refine his mistakes in the field and prove he can like he did in 2024 not the previous seasons and he can stay healthy.  As soon as that is accomplished Boston will need him on the MLB roster.

[illinoisredsox]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

not against it

 

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

not against it

Pretty sure I’ve read they gave him a 1B mitt In spring training 2024; since we’ve never seen him in a game at that position since, I’m surmising it did not go well.

 

[vjcsmoke]

15 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Campbell eventually will learn 1B and his skills are good enough to play him there but there are better alternatives:

1 - Go get a real 1B

2 - Put Mayer there because he's more of a prototypical 1B than Campbell.  Corner infield is a power position and Mayer has more power than Campbell.  He's not as good at hitting or fielding but he does have more power.  Hopefully, his issues with injures won't continue into the future.

3 - Put Anthony there because he's a power hitter as well and the team is deepest in the outfield.  At 1B Anthony like both Mayer and Campbell, should be able to learn the position quickly and develop sharper skills in future years.

4 - Use Campbell despite him being the best SS in the organization.  He has handled the change to 2B for Story's sake quite well but his natural position is SS.  If Boston hadn't already invested 2 years of Mayer at SS when Campbell was drafted, Campbell would be the heir apparent to SS.  What doesn't make sense is why have Campbell play SS and 2B in 2024 in case Story gets hurt and then change things up and have him now learn 1B which then forces Mayer to learn 2B.  That is a lot more re-positioning to pursue when the obvious better choice is just Mayer learning a new potition or just Anthony learn a new position.  Both guys are power hitters more so than Campbell.

Any of the choices other than #1 make very little sense.  Let Mayer stay in the minors until his defense improves and have Anthony join the outfield and use Abreu to get more pitching.

I'd rather Mayer at SS. That's a bigger impact position. Slide Story to 2nd and Campbell to 1st.

I don't think Campbell stays at 1st permanently. Once we move on from Story and/or we get a real 1st baseman we can move Campbell back to 2nd.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

7 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I'd rather Mayer at SS. That's a bigger impact position. Slide Story to 2nd and Campbell to 1st.

I don't think Campbell stays at 1st permanently. Once we move on from Story and/or we get a real 1st baseman we can move Campbell back to 2nd.

I think a lot of fans feel much like you do.  The only problem is that Story is owed $70Million for 2025 to 2027.  Do you eat that in hopes a guy who hasn't performed that well in the minors suddenly becomes the player everyone wanted to him to be?  With $70Million owed it's hard to believe Boston would eat that money for the least certain of the star prospects.  If Story needs to play this year and two more it makes way more sense to move Mayer to 1B and see if he can stick there, move Campbell back to 2B.  Then bring up Anthony and nudge either Rafaela or Abreu into the fourth outfielder role.  Maybe you play Abreu against right-handed hitters and move Anthony to center and when Rafaela plays you have Anthony in right field.  Also, when Casas comes back you can see if he can beat out Mayer at 1B.  If he can't, he's trade bait like Yoshida.  

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

 

You're the only person on earth saying Mayer can't be a SS and maybe should move to 1B.  

kids, because thats what he was, he was drafted as a teenager need to develop on both sides of the ball.

Here's what the Pro's say about Mayers defense. 

Soxprospects.com Instinctual defender with fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield. Some long-term concerns about his ability to stick at shortstop as he matures. Organization appeared poised to get him some reps at third base midway through 2024, but injuries, including the one that eventually ended his season after July 30, effectively scuttled those plans. Potential above-average defender at short for the foreseeable future

Pipeline (8th overall) The Red Sox landed the fourth overall pick in 2021, their earliest since 1967, and MLB Pipeline's top-rated Draft prospect in Mayer, a California prep shortstop whom some scouts considered the best hitter and defender that year. He has mostly lived up to expectations  

Bigger than most shortstops, Mayer has below-average speed but his quick first step and instincts help him compensate.

 he plays a solid shortstop with plus arm strength. Some evaluators like him better at third base, where they believe he could be a plus defender with profile power.

Baseball America (8th overall)- Mayer has excellent hands, a strong, accurate arm with the ability to vary his throwing angle, and the anticipation and well-calibrated clock of an above-average to plus shortstop. Some evaluators still wonder if he'll outgrow the position as he adds strength into his 20s, but such a move is unlikely to be considered as he moves through the minors. Though Mayer has below-average speed, his instincts allow him to play faster than his foot speed.

What is it you know that they don't that has you saying he should move to 1B?

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I think a lot of fans feel much like you do.  The only problem is that Story is owed $70Million for 2025 to 2027.  Do you eat that in hopes a guy who hasn't performed that well in the minors suddenly becomes the player everyone wanted to him to be?  With $70Million owed it's hard to believe Boston would eat that money for the least certain of the star prospects.  If Story needs to play this year and two more it makes way more sense to move Mayer to 1B and see if he can stick there, move Campbell back to 2B.  Then bring up Anthony and nudge either Rafaela or Abreu into the fourth outfielder role.  Maybe you play Abreu against right-handed hitters and move Anthony to center and when Rafaela plays you have Anthony in right field.  Also, when Casas comes back you can see if he can beat out Mayer at 1B.  If he can't, he's trade bait like Yoshida.  

The Boston Red Sox will never permanently move Mayer to 1B. 

The odds of them doing it for this year is .05%

the odds of them making him the long term fixture there is 0%

[Hitch]

13 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

There are a lot of "point in time" comments that have been made related to performance.

This is my biggest bug bear with this (and I imagine all) fan group(s). People make conclusions on at bats, or minute information nowadays, in a sport above all others where it really isn't informative. In game threads you see players getting slagged off and then praised and talked up, in the same game, within a few innings of each other sometimes  We had a poster (I forget who) that openly boasted to basing opinions off the immediate.  Posters couldn't wait to call anyone stupid who thought about trading Abreu in the off season during April. Now, one or two are questioning whether we should have again. It must be hard to be a player these days - fanbases are just itching to turn on you.

In the world we've built of immediacy, it isn't changing now, we're stuck with this mindset I think, and it means skimming over a lot more posts than I used to, but man is it frustrating how solid people's changing opinions are on things these days.

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Boston Red Sox will never permanently move Mayer to 1B. 

The odds of them doing it for this year is .05%

the odds of them making him the long term fixture there is 0%

Mayer is the second best fielder today in a Bregman, Story, Mayer, Campbell IF. Why would you put him at 1B? Story has been awful. If Mayer is up, he's playing either SS or 2B. I'd move Story over to 2B where he played pretty well in '22 TBH. If he's not going to hit, at least his defense could play up a little. Right now, he's not the SS he once was. I'm not sure he's even as good as Rafaela at SS.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Without data clearly the comment about not having a clue is just an uninformed opinion often called a cheap shot.  You can't just voice your viewpoint.  That's a lack of maturity.

At the guy who has been telling people not to come at you so hot

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

 

Pretty sure I’ve read they gave him a 1B mitt In spring training 2024; since we’ve never seen him in a game at that position since, I’m surmising it did not go well.

 

Ill try anything twice

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's easy to say anything on the internet. 

Alex Bregman really hasn't been worth his contract so far. 

Garrett Crochet? Bad trade! 

Sam Kennedy is a great guy. 

mvp78 knows more about baseball than any of us knuckleheads…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

mvp78 knows more about baseball than any of us knuckleheads…

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

The Boston Red Sox will never permanently move Mayer to 1B. 

The odds of them doing it for this year is .05%

the odds of them making him the long term fixture there is 0%

Basically the chances of Mayer becoming the long term 1b for Boston are the same as mine.

I’ll add to this. I think you overestimate his chances of being at 1b this year.  Not by much; you’re only 0.05% too high. 
 

If they move Campbell to 1b this year, the options for 2b become Mayer, Story, Hamilton, Rafaela (with Anthony moving to the OF).  I predict Rafaela to be least likely scenario, largely due to comments about Rafaela playing CF that Cora made before the season.  The other three options?  I can’t rank them…

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Without data clearly the comment about not having a clue is just an uninformed opinion often called a cheap shot.  You can't just voice your viewpoint.  That's a lack of maturity.

On power potential:

Campbell 

A+ 558 SLG

AA 582 SLG

AAA 468 SLG

20 HR in 2024

Mayer

A+ 524 SLG

AA 480 SLG

AAA 452

8 HR in 2024, max was 13 in '22 and '23

No matter what offensive stat you want to look at, Campbell was better offensively in MiLB than Mayer.

 

Not sure what stats you want to go on for Mayer defensively.

Here's his scouting report from SoxProspects: Instinctual defender with fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield. Some long-term concerns about his ability to stick at shortstop as he matures. Organization appeared poised to get him some reps at third base midway through 2024, but injuries, including the one that eventually ended his season after July 30, effectively scuttled those plans. Potential above-average defender at short for the foreseeable future.

His 981 Fldg Pct '25 at SS (Story is 973 right now) would be top 10 in MLB this year, but you'd rather slide him over to 1b. 🙃

 

[moonslav59]

20 hours ago, Old Red said:

It’s just not 1B. The Red Sox used 11 2B last year, and how many SS have they tried the last three years?

For sure. You don't finish near .500, every year, without having multiple weak areas or areas with little depth. You have to pick and choose, when you cut your budget or refuse to spend on quality talent while looking for bargain basement players to fill too many weak positions.

2B has been worse than 1B, since at least casas had some hopes.

Ace was another neglected area.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

This is my biggest bug bear with this (and I imagine all) fan group(s). People make conclusions on at bats, or minute information nowadays, in a sport above all others where it really isn't informative. In game threads you see players getting slagged off and then praised and talked up, in the same game, within a few innings of each other sometimes  We had a poster (I forget who) that openly boasted to basing opinions off the immediate.  Posters couldn't wait to call anyone stupid who thought about trading Abreu in the off season during April. Now, one or two are questioning whether we should have again. It must be hard to be a player these days - fanbases are just itching to turn on you.

In the world we've built of immediacy, it isn't changing now, we're stuck with this mindset I think, and it means skimming over a lot more posts than I used to, but man is it frustrating how solid people's changing opinions are on things these days.

Our opinions as fans are all worthless.  I wholeheartedly accept and even cherish the worthlessness of my opinions on the Sox.  Some people are under the unfortunate delusion that their opinions are sound and they matter. 

🙃