Red Sox 2025 Starting Rotation

[moonslav59]

Longer than 4 weeks...

0.70 ERA Giolito in last 6 starts (June5th)

2.18 ERA Bello in last 5 starts (June10th) 2.83 last 9 starts (May19th) Bello was at 2.33 after 6 starts, then has the 7 ER games then went 2.83.

And we have a guy better than these two!!!

[Nick]

We need a replacement for Buehler..

Wished Houck would come around.

[Nick]

My Worthless Stat-Updated/team wins with a starter

Crochet	20	14	-	6
Buehler	16	9	-	7
Bello	15	8	-	7
Giolito	13	8	-	5
Dobbins	11	8	-	3
		47	-	28
T Houck	9	2	-	7
Fitts	8	2	-	6
Newcomb	5	2	-	3
Bernardino	1	0	-	1
			-
	98	53	-	45

[Hugh2]

I would be scanning the market for a good starting pitcher who has at least an extra year of control left.  It's going to cost more and some people might be uncomfortable with that but it sets this team up nicely for the playoffs this year and for next year as well. 

Crochet/ Hypothetical Ace #2/ Giolito/ Bello/ put whoever you want here. 

[Nick]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I would be scanning the market for a good starting pitcher who has at least an extra year of control left.  It's going to cost more and some people might be uncomfortable with that but it sets this team up nicely for the playoffs this year and for next year as well. 

Crochet/ Hypothetical Ace #2/ Giolito/ Bello/ put whoever you want here. 

I hate to be the second guesser after the fact but Eovaldi into his second year has really performed well for the Rangers. $75M for 3 years was little steep for the Sox. 

Again, Tanner Houck really put us in a bad place.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

I hate to be the second guesser after the fact but Eovaldi into his second year has really performed well for the Rangers. $75M for 3 years was little steep for the Sox. 

Again, Tanner Houck really put us in a bad place.

As good as Eovaldi is, a 35 year old pitcher with two TJS isn't exactly the type of risk I wanna bet on.  He could easily be hurt this year or go down next.  It would cost more, but I'd rather trade for a guy we would be interested in extended if it made sense. 

He's also on the rangers who are easily in the playoff hunt this year, he very well might not even be for sale. 

[Hugh2]

Also is it really Tanner Houcks fault? I'm not sure how he put us in a "bad spot" like he pitched bad and got hurt with malice. 

Also, what about Richard Fitts who hasn't quite lived up to expectations and got hurt, Crawford who got hurt, Now Dobbins got hurt, and Buehler who has not lived up to expectations.  Maybe I missed interpreted the comment but I'm not really sure how Houck has put us in a bad spot.  

I also haven't 100% ruled out that Houck comes back and really helps us down the stretch, if not in the rotation then in the bullpen. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Also, what about Richard Fitts who hasn't quite lived up to expectations

Hasn't lived up to expectations? What? 

Expectations for Fitts was a 4-5 starter at his peak. Coming into the season, he was fighting for the 5th spot. Seems to be that's what he is. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

As good as Eovaldi is, a 35 year old pitcher with two TJS isn't exactly the type of risk I wanna bet on.  He could easily be hurt this year or go down next.  It would cost more, but I'd rather trade for a guy we would be interested in extended if it made sense. 

He's also on the rangers who are easily in the playoff hunt this year, he very well might not even be for sale. 

Sox need a 2018 Eovaldi, not a 2017 Pomeranz or a 2019 Kashner.

Brez could settle for a 2023 Jordan Montgomery... not a '24 Montgomery.

Nothing is guaranteed, except a disappointed clubhouse if no one is added...

[mvp 78]

Fitts '25

4 G, 17 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

1 G that should have been rehabbd in POR/WOO

3 G, 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Seems like he's bee pretty good except for one start even though he's dealt with an injury? 

 

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I would be scanning the market for a good starting pitcher who has at least an extra year of control left.  It's going to cost more and some people might be uncomfortable with that but it sets this team up nicely for the playoffs this year and for next year as well. 

Crochet/ Hypothetical Ace #2/ Giolito/ Bello/ put whoever you want here. 

Sandy Alcantara.  Free agent after 2026 with a $21mill option for 2027.  Owed $25mill thru next year including $2mill buyout.

Not having a good year at all. Still, BTV gives him a surplus value of $15.7 mill, roughly equal to Brandon Clarke ($16.3mill).  But his past history and controllable cheap deal probably means he is worth more, especially given how many teams might be interested.

Luis Severino might also be available.  BTV has him as a straight salary dump…

[Soxlover]

Houck’s injury put in a bad spot. Although he was not great after his tremendous start to 2024, if he just was okay this year, we wouldn’t really need a solid SP.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Sandy Alcantara.  Free agent after 2026 with a $21mill option for 2027.  Owed $25mill thru next year including $2mill buyout.

Not having a good year at all. Still, BTV gives him a surplus value of $15.7 mill, roughly equal to Brandon Clarke ($16.3mill).  But his past history and controllable cheap deal probably means he is worth more, especially given how many teams might be interested.

Luis Severino might also be available.  BTV has him as a straight salary dump…

There is a good chance that Alcantara is just no longer a good pitcher after his injury issues. 

 

[Soxlover]

I’d stay away from pitchers that are coming off injuries. We’ve been burned enough and already have Sandoval, Houck, Crawford and Bello that fit that profile, not to mention Buehler & Giolito.

we should signed Fried.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is a good chance that Alcantara is just no longer a good pitcher after his injury issues. 

 

Certainly possible.  Maybe only for this year, but Boston might be better off letting someone else find out…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Certainly possible.  Maybe only for this year, but Boston might be better off letting someone else find out…

It depends on what the Marlins are looking for. If the Sox weren't trying to get the to playoffs, I'd give a struggling Alcantara the 5th spot in the rotation. Right now, he's about the same as Buehler and it's just rearranging deckchairs if you move Buehler to the pen. 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

I’d stay away from pitchers that are coming off injuries. We’ve been burned enough and already have Sandoval, Houck, Crawford and Bello that fit that profile, not to mention Buehler & Giolito.

we should signed Fried.

Huh?

Buehler was an injury risk.  Giolito was not, but got injured a lot since arriving.  Sandoval was signed to a recovery/pillow contract.

Crawford, Houck and Bello have had various injuries.  But it’s hardly the same as acquiring frequently injured arms.  Acquiring a pitcher immune to injury would be awesome. But it’s just remains impossible…

[Soxlover]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It depends on what the Marlins are looking for. If the Sox weren't trying to get the to playoffs, I'd give a struggling Alcantara the 5th spot in the rotation. Right now, he's about the same as Buehler and it's just rearranging deckchairs if you move Buehler to the pen. 

He’d be more like a trade for 2026 hopes.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It depends on what the Marlins are looking for. If the Sox weren't trying to get the to playoffs, I'd give a struggling Alcantara the 5th spot in the rotation. Right now, he's about the same as Buehler and it's just rearranging deckchairs if you move Buehler to the pen. 

Let’s assume they’re ok with the BTV equivalent of Clarke. Do you do it?

[Soxlover]

Just now, notin said:

Huh?

Buehler was an injury risk.  Giolito was not, but got injured a lot since arriving.  Sandoval was signed to a recovery/pillow contract.

Crawford, Houck and Bello have had various injuries.  But it’s hardly the same as acquiring frequently injured arms.  Acquiring a pitcher immune to injury would be awesome. But it’s just remains impossible…

We have pitchers who are injured or just off injuries. I know Gio was not when we signed him but he is one now,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Let’s assume they’re ok with the BTV equivalent of Clarke. Do you do it?

Unless you're convinced Buehler or Houck or Harrison or Sandoval bounce back for two months of regular rotation turns, the Sox need to acquire more than a #5 starter.

A 2013 Jake Peavy won't do it for a team that needs to make the playoffs in '25.

As for trading Clarke or -- no, Tolle! -- some fans are wondering if Breslow's top two draft picks yesterday make it easier for him to part with a top arm for a MLB starter who is actually good this year...

[notin]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Unless you're convinced Buehler or Houck or Harrison or Sandoval bounce back for two months of regular rotation turns, the Sox need to acquire more than a #5 starter.

A 2013 Jake Peavy won't do it for a team that needs to make the playoffs in '25.

As for trading Clarke or -- no, Tolle! -- some fans are wondering if Breslow's top two draft picks yesterday make it easier for him to part with a top arm for a MLB starter who is actually good this year...

What available starter should the Sox pursue?

Alcantara is available.  Ditto the oft-injured Edward Cabrera.  Other targets might be Mitch Keller, Seth Lugo and Zac Gallen.

There are rumors about the availability of Joe Ryan and Mackenzie Gore.  I have my doubts…

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

We have pitchers who are injured or just off injuries. I know Gio was not when we signed him but he is one now,

Half the pitchers in the league are coming off injuries.  The other half are heading towards them.  
 

I get passing on Alcantara.  And Cabrera.  But at some point, the Sox are going to have to take some sort of risk.  Just preferably not a Buehler level risk…

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Half the pitchers in the league are coming off injuries.  The other half are heading towards them.  
 

I get passing on Alcantara.  And Cabrera.  But at some point, the Sox are going to have to take some sort of risk.  Just preferably not a Buehler level risk…

The Crochet extension was a sizable risk.  As you alluded to, they're all risks now.

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

Let’s assume they’re ok with the BTV equivalent of Clarke. Do you do it?

2 years of Alcantara for Clarke? He'll maybe give you 6 fWAR over the 2 years and the contract is worth 5 fWAR. BTV has him at 15M? Seems a little higher than I'd expect. IDK. 

Um, whenever I've seen a Marlins game this season, it hasn't been pretty. I'd personally pass on Alcantara, but if Breslow believes he can turn it around and thinks Clarke is worth the risk to send to MIA, I'd trust him. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Crochet extension was a sizable risk.  As you alluded to, they're all risks now.

With his ceiling, it's a risk you take every time if you are a serious org. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Half the pitchers in the league are coming off injuries.  The other half are heading towards them.  
 

I get passing on Alcantara.  And Cabrera.  But at some point, the Sox are going to have to take some sort of risk.  Just preferably not a Buehler level risk…

I really don't like Edward Cabrera. His name gets mentioned all the time. He's 27 and always has felt relieverish to me. I don't love his bb rate (2nd highest since '23). 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I really don't like Edward Cabrera. His name gets mentioned all the time. He's 27 and always has felt relieverish to me. I don't love his bb rate (2nd highest since '23). 

I predict either Cabrera or Alcantara to the Cubs for OF Owen Caissie.

Book it…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

What available starter should the Sox pursue?

Alcantara is available.  Ditto the oft-injured Edward Cabrera.  Other targets might be Mitch Keller, Seth Lugo and Zac Gallen.

There are rumors about the availability of Joe Ryan and Mackenzie Gore.  I have my doubts…

Merrill Kelly should be available. He's 36 and a free agent this winter, so shouldn't cost a ton.

A lot of mileage on his arm, but once again leads the NL in starts this season (tied with Gallen, also soon to be free, but at age 29 will cost more prospects).

Kelly has a 2.9 WAR, and can pitch in October: two years ago he made four postseason starts with a 2.25 ERA.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Merrill Kelly should be available. He's 36 and a free agent this winter, so shouldn't cost a ton.

A lot of mileage on his arm, but once again leads the NL in starts this season (tied with Gallen, also soon to be free, but at age 29 will cost more prospects).

Kelly has a 2.9 WAR, and can pitch in October: two years ago he made four postseason starts with a 2.25 ERA.

A more realistic and disappointing option for sure. He'd be fine (Jake Peavy-ish), but fans are greedy.