How worried should we be about the Red Sox slow starters?

[Cameron Tran]

While Rafael Devers is getting the majority of the blame for the Red Sox slow start, Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Trevor Story, and Ceddanne Rafeala are a combined 5-63 to begin the year. Those 4, plus Devers, are hitting .061 on the year. While stats at the start of the season are typically exaggerated and highlighted, this is not something that we can ignore. Here's whats been going on with those 5 hitters.

Rafael Devers:

Devers set the record with the most strikeouts in a teams first 5 games, going down 15 times in his 19 at-bats. It's one of the top stories in all of baseball, and for good reason. Going back to last season, Devers has 26 strikeouts in his last 9 games. He has 1 hit in that stretch. Much of what Devers has been dealing with comes down to his timing. His bat speed is down 2 mph from last year, and it shows. His 48% contact% is down nearly 30 points from his career average. He quite frankly just isn't hitting the ball, and when he does, it usually goes straight back. While this is definitely the worst of the worst for the Red Sox lineup, I would argue this isn't the most worrying of the bunch. Devers issues this year have nothing to do with plate discipline, which is usually what gets him. His chase rate is down 10%, and he's drawn a solid amount of walks and worked some good at-bats (albeit mostly ending in strikeouts). I don't think it's possible for a hitter like Devers to stay this way, maybe this off-day can calm him down and get him back into form, but don't look too deep into this start from the 2x silver slugger. A slow spring and long recovery, not to mention all the offseason drama, made this an extremely unusual spring for him, but its only a matter of time until he settles in to the DH role and rakes once again. 

Triston Casas:

While Dever's strikeouts have hidden the struggles of Casas, the young slugger has had almost an equally bad start to the year. Through 17 at-bats, Casas has just 1 hit, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. Even worse, Casas has been chasing much more than usual, with a 31% chase rate up 10 points from his career average. He has yet to barrel up a ball this year, with his exit-velo down 10mph from his average. He's hit only 1 line drive in those 17 at-bats. Moreover, he just looks completely lost at the plate. Going off the eye-test, he's going up there without any sort of approach, he's getting behind in the count more often and chasing some god awful pitches and something needs to change if we want to compete this year. Cora gave Casas the day off yesterday, but he's expected to return to the lineup tomorrow with the righty Eflin going. I am more worried about Casas then Devers, especially with him coming off of a rough spring and a very weird year last season. 

Connor Wong:

Wong spent much of the offseason working on his defense, and I'll give credit where credits due he's looked much better behind the plate, but his bat has not started as fast as his glove. Wong has just 1 hit in his first 16 at-bats, adding 5 strikeouts to the teams total. More importantly, Wong is 0-10 with runners in scoring position, with 1 walk and all 5 of those strikeouts coming with runners in scoring position. Wong, like Casas, has seen his chase rate up 5% compared to his career average. He's swinging at the first pitch nearly 50% of the time, resulting in him starting 0-1 nearly 70% of his plate appearances. Wong was never projected to add much with his bat, but with the way Abreu and Campbell have been swinging, we need Wong bringing in those situations. 

Trevor Story:

Many hoped this would be the year Story finally gets back to form, but he has once again added next to nothing with his bat. At this point in his career, it's solely his defense that has kept him in Cora's lineup. Story has started the year with 2 hits and 6 strikeouts in 15 ABs. He's another Red Sox yet to barrel up a baseball yet. His outside the zone swing% has gone up nearly 20%, resulting in an average exit velo of 80mph, down 10mph from his average. Out of everyone on this team, Story needs a barrel the most. Even if its a hard linedrive right into a glove, we need to see that Story can still make hard contact. While his defense at short will keep him in the lineup, if Mayer gets going in AAA don't be surprised if Cora makes a change.

Ceddanne Rafaela:

Early in the spring, I listed Rafaela as my top breakout candidate for the 2025 season. He showed major improvements and a new batting stance this spring, and the results were very good. It looked like Rafaela had finally gotten his plate discipline in control, and, more importantly, he was walking far more than he was striking out, something that was very needed for the sophomore. But a hot spring has not equalled a hot start, as Rafaela has started 1-15 with 0 walks and 3 strikeouts. Out of everyone though, Rafaela should definitely be the worst of your worries. His exit velo is up 2 mph from last season, and his expected batting average shows some unluckiness so far. The worrying part is that it looks like all that work to lower the chase rate this spring has gone out the window. Rafaela has an astonishing 76% chase rate this year. He is swinging at nearly 80% of the pitches he sees, and 23% of those swings are ending in strikes. While Rafaela has been putting the ball in play more than any of the aforementioned, we need to see that spring plate-discipline come back. 

 

[mvp 78]

 

[Cameron Tran]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

just a god awful approach. Don't know if it's something coaching is telling them but if so that needs to change. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

just a god awful approach. Don't know if it's something coaching is telling them but if so that needs to change. 

League Average k% 2024: 22.6

Returning 2024 Red Sox players with k% above League Average:

Casas - starting slow

Story - starting slow

Sogard (not currently on the active roster)

Abreu

Romy

Rafaela - starting slow

Refsnyder

Hamilton

Devers - starting slow

Wong - starting slow

Returning 2024 Red Sox players with k% below League Average:

Duran

Masa - not on the active roster

 

It comes down to roster construction. Bregman should help a little. Campbell will probably be below League Average. Getting the oft hated Masataka Yoshida back would greatly help this offense. Swapping Story for Mayer and Rafaela for Anthony would help the offensive, but may not bring down the k rate. 

[Larry Cook]

Teel off to a hot start in charlotte!!! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It is a measured fact that modern pitchers on average throw harder than ever. 

I'm not a physicist (though the one I watch on TV knows nothing about baseball), but doesn't a timed swing that barrels a fast pitch usually make the resultant hit go farther than off a slow pitch?

If true, then batters don't need to swing with all their might... and should instead use a little less violence and a little more precision. Maybe they do, and when they whiff, it's the physical momentum of a swing and miss that just looks like they're trying to pulverize the pill...

They all made the majors, but hopefully some recall amateur advice on the best approach vs. fastballs: don't swing harder, swing sooner...

... the question is: do professional coaches remember this?

[Kimmi]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

League Average k% 2024: 22.6

Returning 2024 Red Sox players with k% above League Average:

Casas - starting slow

Story - starting slow

Sogard (not currently on the active roster)

Abreu

Romy

Rafaela - starting slow

Refsnyder

Hamilton

Devers - starting slow

Wong - starting slow

Returning 2024 Red Sox players with k% below League Average:

Duran

Masa - not on the active roster

 

It comes down to roster construction. Bregman should help a little. Campbell will probably be below League Average. Getting the oft hated Masataka Yoshida back would greatly help this offense. Swapping Story for Mayer and Rafaela for Anthony would help the offensive, but may not bring down the k rate. 

Greetings MVP and everyone!  It's been a long time.  :)

In this very young season, the offense already has me frustrated.  The Ks last year, and subsequently, the inability to at least make productive outs, were particularly frustrating.  I am hoping that with a little more experience under their belts over last season, the chase rate will improve.

I am happy to see the positive nod given to Yoshida.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Greetings MVP and everyone!  It's been a long time.  :)

In this very young season, the offense already has me frustrated.  The Ks last year, and subsequently, the inability to at least make productive outs, were particularly frustrating.  I am hoping that with a little more experience under their belts over last season, the chase rate will improve.

I am happy to see the positive nod given to Yoshida.

Happy to have you back!

[Larry Cook]

Bello had a great first two innings at Worcester and then imploded in the 3rd inning 

[Larry Cook]

Dobbins is serving up meatballs left and right in Worcester 

Mayer and Grissom with taters so far 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Greetings MVP and everyone!  It's been a long time.  :)

In this very young season, the offense already has me frustrated.  The Ks last year, and subsequently, the inability to at least make productive outs, were particularly frustrating.  I am hoping that with a little more experience under their belts over last season, the chase rate will improve.

I am happy to see the positive nod given to Yoshida.

So glad you came back. Hope to hear more from you.

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Greetings MVP and everyone!  It's been a long time.  :)

In this very young season, the offense already has me frustrated.  The Ks last year, and subsequently, the inability to at least make productive outs, were particularly frustrating.  I am hoping that with a little more experience under their belts over last season, the chase rate will improve.

I am happy to see the positive nod given to Yoshida.

Kimmi! So glad you came back! 

[oldtimer]

14 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Greetings MVP and everyone!  It's been a long time.  :)

In this very young season, the offense already has me frustrated.  The Ks last year, and subsequently, the inability to at least make productive outs, were particularly frustrating.  I am hoping that with a little more experience under their belts over last season, the chase rate will improve.

I am happy to see the positive nod given to Yoshida.

I had hoped Spring Training would have allowed players to hone their plate mechanics such that they would at least have started competitively. Whether we faced incredible pitching, the players were unable to use Spring Training to  their benefit or the manager made poor choices with the lineup construction remains to be seen. There were choices available, including two high potential rookies and Yoshida. That's what the front office gets paid to do (make choices) and I can only see the results. So far things are not going well. Good to see you back. I haven't been around much of late either

[FredLynn]

To state the obvious, its been only five games. No conclusions at all can be drawn yet. Even Devers, who missed most of ST, is going to come around. For the first time in many years I think this team has the potential to be worth watching. Not a WS contender, but better than the last several years. Its pretty amazing that articles are coming out asking what is wrong with Devers....after five games......

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

To state the obvious, its been only five games. No conclusions at all can be drawn yet. Even Devers, who missed most of ST, is going to come around. For the first time in many years I think this team has the potential to be worth watching. Not a WS contender, but better than the last several years. Its pretty amazing that articles are coming out asking what is wrong with Devers....after five games......

0 hits and a record-breaking 15 strikeouts in the first 5 games, plus injury concerns hanging over from last year, will do that.

[FredLynn]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

0 hits and a record-breaking 15 strikeouts in the first 5 games, plus injury concerns hanging over from last year, will do that.

Are you really worried?

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Are you really worried?

Yes.

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes.

And Story, Casas, Wong, and RAF Man isn’t much better.

[moonslav59]

It's not uncommon for a 5 game sample size to have a few players with really bad numbers, but this is god-awful. These numbers would be really bad, if they were batting averages, but they are OPS:
.000 DHam (7 PAs)

.133 Rafaela (15)

.170 Casas (18)

.174 Devers (23)

.180 Wong (17)

Then, there is Story at .321 and Bregman at .488.

Only 3 guys have 16+ PAs and are doing okay or better:

2.114 Abreu (16)

1.188 Campbell (20)

.776 Duran (23)

Others are at .833 Narvaez in 4 PA, 1.333 Refsnyder (3, but just don't call it a "platoon") and 1.350 Romy (5 PAs.)

Sad numbers, indeed for 7 of 13 batters..

On the pitching side, we still have 7 pitchers with 0 ERS allowed:

Whitlock (4 IP) Weissert (3) Kelly (2) Wilson (1.2) Bernardino (1.1) Chapman and Criswell with 1 IP. (14 IP total)

3.60 Crochet (5 IP)

4.50 Fitts (6)

6.35 Houck (5.2), 8.31 Buehler (4.1) 9.00 Newcomb (4.0) 18.00 Slaten (2)

 

 

 

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not uncommon for a 5 game sample size to have a few players with really bad numbers, but this is god-awful. These numbers would be really bad, if they were batting averages, but they are OPS:
.000 DHam (7 PAs)

.133 Rafaela (15)

.170 Casas (18)

.174 Devers (23)

.180 Wong (17)

Then, there is Story at .321 and Bregman at .488.

Only 3 guys have 16+ PAs and are doing okay or better:

2.114 Abreu (16)

1.188 Campbell (20)

.776 Duran (23)

Others are at .833 Narvaez in 4 PA, 1.333 Refsnyder (3, but just don't call it a "platoon") and 1.350 Romy (5 PAs.)

Sad numbers, indeed for 7 of 13 batters..

On the pitching side, we still have 7 pitchers with 0 ERS allowed:

Whitlock (4 IP) Weissert (3) Kelly (2) Wilson (1.2) Bernardino (1.1) Chapman and Criswell with 1 IP. (14 IP total)

3.60 Crochet (5 IP)

4.50 Fitts (6)

6.35 Houck (5.2), 8.31 Buehler (4.1) 9.00 Newcomb (4.0) 18.00 Slaten (2)

 

 

 

OPS? Raffy, Casas, RAF Man, and Wong are 3-67 with 2 RBI, and Raffy’s was off a BB. Plain, and simple.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Old Red said:

OPS? Raffy, Casas, RAF Man, and Wong are 3-67 with 2 RBI, and Raffy’s was off a BB. Plain, and simple.

OPS is plain and simple, too.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

OPS is plain and simple, too.

My point being that 3-67 was all that was really needed.Going further didn’t really add anything IMO. 3-67 says it all. 2 RBI was the big add on.

[drewski6]

3-67 does not say it all.  If you told me we were 3-67 I would assume that we played against top pitching in a pitchers park.

A small sample size can do that (if say out of 5 games, we faced 3 great pitchers and played 3 games in a pitchers park), and sometimes context helps.

In this case the helpful context is that there is no helpful context. We havent faced especially tough pitching or played in especially tough places.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

3-67 does not say it all.  If you told me we were 3-67 I would assume that we played against top pitching in a pitchers park.

A small sample size can do that (if say out of 5 games, we faced 3 great pitchers and played 3 games in a pitchers park), and sometimes context helps.

In this case the helpful context is that there is no helpful context. We havent faced especially tough pitching or played in especially tough places.

I was going on the assumption that the posters on here had watched the games, and knew what the 3-67 would mean. I wasn’t assuming anything else.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

My point being that 3-67 was all that was really needed.Going further didn’t really add anything IMO. 3-67 says it all. 2 RBI was the big add on.

To each his own. I didn't think saying 3-67 added anything further.

I was going on the assumption that posters on here had watched the games and knew the sample size would be around 3 for 67. In fact, I'd have thought it might have been 70+ PAs, so saying 67 made it look better than I expected.

🤪

[FredLynn]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes.

Let’s revisit this in 6-8 weeks. If Devers is still sucking I’ll be worried too.

 

[Old Red]

I’ve been trying to talk MVP, and others down off the Raffy ledge for the past few days. After Raffy got a couple of hits tonight maybe he, and others will at least come back inside the window. You’re welcome!

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Old Red said:

I’ve been trying to talk MVP, and others down off the Raffy ledge for the past few days. After Raffy got a couple of hits tonight maybe he, and others will at least come back inside the window. You’re welcome!

You're the last person to try to talk anyone down of a ledge TBF. 

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You're the last person to try to talk anyone down of a ledge TBF. 

That’s true, because it would have to be from long distance, because I think pretty much I was the only one who was NOWHERE near the Raffy Ledge you were on. At least you have plenty of company. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s true, because it would have to be from long distance, because I think pretty much I was the only one who was NOWHERE near the Raffy Ledge you were on. At least you have plenty of company. 

Being a Sox fan for 50+ years has made me superstitious and paranoid about the team.  That's my excuse, anyway.