A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[iortiz]

IMO platooning Yoshida/Refsnyder could simulate Devers production at DH 

I would go like this when everybody is available. 

1. LF Duran

2. 2B Mayer

3. 3B Bregman

4. RF Anthony 

5, DH Yoshida/Refsnyder

6. C Narvaez 

7. 1B Toro/Gonzalez

8. SS Story

9. CF Rafaela

IMHO this is a legit competitive line up on paper 

You also would have Abreu, Campbell and Wong.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

21 minutes ago, iortiz said:

IMO platooning Yoshida/Refsnyder could simulate Devers production at DH 

I would go like this when everybody is available. 

1. LF Duran

2. 2B Mayer

3. 3B Bregman

4. RF Anthony 

5, DH Yoshida/Refsnyder

6. C Narvaez 

7. 1B Toro/Gonzalez

8. SS Story

9. CF Rafaela

IMHO this is a legit competitive line up on paper 

You also would have Abreu, Campbell and Wong.  

 

That's 14, so someone has to go, and my guess is that Breslow will trade someone, possibly Duran or Abreu, as part of a deal to get a starter.

I would prefer Abreu over Duran with Anthony moving to LF--better OPS and DWAR.  But I won't fight over it.

Until you wrote it down, I did not realize that Yoshida/Refsnyder are the perfect DH combo.  One hits lefties well and the other righties.  

[iortiz]

22 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

That's 14, so someone has to go, and my guess is that Breslow will trade someone, possibly Duran or Abreu, as part of a deal to get a starter.

I would prefer Abreu over Duran with Anthony moving to LF--better OPS and DWAR.  But I won't fight over it.

Until you wrote it down, I did not realize that Yoshida/Refsnyder are the perfect DH combo.  One hits lefties well and the other righties.  

They could option Campbell down, but I don’t see that happening either especially since he was extended and plays several positions. 
 

This is the kind of “problems” you want.

[Maxbialystock]

34 minutes ago, iortiz said:

They could option Campbell down, but I don’t see that happening either especially since he was extended and plays several positions. 
 

This is the kind of “problems” you want.

I understand he's extended, but maybe he could use some everyday hitting and fielding at Worcester.  I say that without an iota of knowledge about situations like this.  Maybe a trade is the best solution if they can get a good arm.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, iortiz said:

IMO platooning Yoshida/Refsnyder could simulate Devers production at DH 

I would go like this when everybody is available. 

1. LF Duran

2. 2B Mayer

3. 3B Bregman

4. RF Anthony 

5, DH Yoshida/Refsnyder

6. C Narvaez 

7. 1B Toro/Gonzalez

8. SS Story

9. CF Rafaela

IMHO this is a legit competitive line up on paper 

You also would have Abreu, Campbell and Wong.  

 

Abreu is an aside?

He's a better hitter vs R than Yoshida, and Duran, Rafaela and Anthony. He's a better defender than Duran, Refsnyder, Yoshida & Anthony.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, iortiz said:

Can someone explain to me the situation of Yoshida like a 10 yo please? 

You know when you take a piece of bread and put it in the toaster?

What comes out?

That is Yoshida.

And, there isn't even any butter.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

I understand he's extended, but maybe he could use some everyday hitting and fielding at Worcester.  I say that without an iota of knowledge about situations like this.  Maybe a trade is the best solution if they can get a good arm.  

We aren't keeping any kid on the 26, if he's not going to be playing, a lot.

I do think we make a trade, and Bregman will probably not be back until after the trade deadline, but even if we keep everyone of our everyday players, someone will not be doing to well and will be the obvious guy to be demoted. My guess is Toro. Campbell can platoon with Romy at 1B and get some time at 2B or CF, if he deserves it.

[moonslav59]

How about Story, Casas, Abreu, Tolle and Romero for Olsen and Sale?

[cp176]

6 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I understand he's extended, but maybe he could use some everyday hitting and fielding at Worcester.  I say that without an iota of knowledge about situations like this.  Maybe a trade is the best solution if they can get a good arm.  

I really like the way our rookies play but I’ll say once again that I do not understand how anyone could have come to the conclusion that Campbell should have come up before Mayer.  Mayer is the better player and at this point  it isn’t even close.  Campbell is just thrashing at the ball and hoping he gets some contact.  Hope he figures it out.  .  

[notin]

10 hours ago, iortiz said:

IMO platooning Yoshida/Refsnyder could simulate Devers production at DH .  

 

Ummmm… no.

 It might be a good platoon, but don’t go overboard…

[Bellhorn04]

55 minutes ago, notin said:

Ummmm… no.

 It might be a good platoon, but don’t go overboard…

If we could get an OPS of say .790 from the DH spot with that platoon, that would be good - it'd still be a loss of 70-80 points from Devers, of course. 

[Nick]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You know when you take a piece of bread and put it in the toaster?

What comes out?

That is Yoshida.

And, there isn't even any butter.

I like butter.

[Nick]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If we could get an OPS of say .790 from the DH spot with that platoon, that would be good - it'd still be a loss of 70-80 points from Devers, of course. 

Sox are #2 in AL at the DH spot just behind the Yankees with an OPS of .879 (Devers obviously).

The Athletics are in third with OPS of .754.

So yes, OPS of say .790 from the DH spot would be great!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

58 minutes ago, notin said:

Ummmm… no.

 It might be a good platoon, but don’t go overboard…

Well, if you combine Yoshida and Refsnyder's contact, they might hit HRs as far as Raffy. But if you combine their swings and misses, they still wouldn't generate Devers' windmill innocent-bird fatalities.

[Nick]

For those 'surprised' at the TIMING of Devers' trade, consider this.

Posey has stated the deal was in the works for a few weeks. Apparently the Padres, the Jays and the Braves were also interested. The Giants won with a combination of taking the entirety of Devers' contract along giving us 4 players.

So no. The deal was not made the night before. Us having to go play Devers within a week of the trade is pure coincidence. 

Now you know. (For the why trade him now when things are looking up crowd.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

For those 'surprised' at the TIMING of Devers' trade, consider this.

Posey has stated the deal was in the works for a few weeks. Apparently the Padres, the Jays and the Braves were also interested. The Giants won with a combination of taking the entirety of Devers' contract along giving us 4 players.

So no. The deal was not made the night before. Us having to go play Devers within a week of the trade is pure coincidence. 

Now you know. (For the why trade him now when things are looking up crowd.)

I'm sure we'll hear more tidbits as time goes by.

I will add that, we could have decided to say no, or put off the trade, once tings started "looking up." Rumor had it, we were all set to trade Betts in 2019, when suddenly, things started looking up, and we called it off.

it could have happened here. The difference was, we wanted Betts but just wouldn't pay him: we did not want Devers, anymore. Plain & simple.

I think we jumped at the timing, in case Devers got hurt, of SF found another trade to their liking

[Nick]

Ranking the Relievers based on recent outings? Need help here. It's getting crowded.

Keepers (?)

1 Chapman (L)

2 Weissert

3 Whitlock

4 Wilson (L)

5 Bernardino (L)

6 Alcala (hard thrower, just got him in a trade, 2 yrs of team control)

Will be Gone to AAA

7 Guerrero (too many walks)

8 Kelly

Replacements (all on IL)

9 Hicks

10 Slaten

11 Hendriks

Interesting times we live in.

[Nick]

Just now, Nick said:

Ranking the Relievers based on recent outings? Need help here. It's getting crowded.

Keepers (?)

1 Chapman (L)

2 Weissert

3 Whitlock

4 Wilson (L)

5 Bernardino (L)

6 Alcala (hard thrower, just got him in a trade, 2 yrs of team control)

Will be Gone to AAA

7 Guerrero (too many walks)

8 Kelly

Replacements (all on IL)

9 Hicks

10 Slaten

11 Hendriks

Interesting times we live in.

Where do we put Houck, Kutter and more importantly the newly acquired Kyle Harrison from the Giants?

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, iortiz said:

IMO platooning Yoshida/Refsnyder could simulate Devers production at DH 

I would go like this when everybody is available. 

1. LF Duran

2. 2B Mayer

3. 3B Bregman

4. RF Anthony 

5, DH Yoshida/Refsnyder

6. C Narvaez 

7. 1B Toro/Gonzalez

8. SS Story

9. CF Rafaela

IMHO this is a legit competitive line up on paper 

You also would have Abreu, Campbell and Wong.  

 

Abreau is team controlled for years and very inexpensive to keep on the roster. Plays excellent defense. He is your basic .250 ave. 20 homers and 75 RBI guy. I see no reason to trade him. 
 

bregman, Duran and story are the positional trade pieces! 

In Philly, desperate Dave needs a lefty reliever and an outfielder. We have (Chapman)  and an outfielder (Duran) and he sends us painter from his time A team! 
the dodgers are desperate for starters and we need another catcher!!  Beuhler and uberstine for  dalton rushing!!!! 

 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Nick said:

Where do we put Houck, Kutter and more importantly the newly acquired Kyle Harrison from the Giants?

Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen? 

Houck looked ROUGH last night for WOO. Kutter is a back end guy, but could fill in if there's an injury. Harrison has some work to do in WOO before they'll call him up. It may be a while.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Abreau is team controlled for years and very inexpensive to keep on the roster. Plays excellent defense. He is your basic .250 ave. 20 homers and 75 RBI guy. I see no reason to trade him. 
 

bregman, Duran and story are the positional trade pieces! 

In Philly, desperate Dave needs a lefty reliever and an outfielder. We have (Chapman)  and an outfielder (Duran) and he sends us painter from his time A team! 
the dodgers are desperate for starters and we need another catcher!!  Beuhler and uberstine for  dalton rushing!!!! 

If they get any sort of offer for Story, Breslow would say yes before the other team could reconsider. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

For those 'surprised' at the TIMING of Devers' trade, consider this.

Posey has stated the deal was in the works for a few weeks. Apparently the Padres, the Jays and the Braves were also interested. The Giants won with a combination of taking the entirety of Devers' contract along giving us 4 players.

So no. The deal was not made the night before. Us having to go play Devers within a week of the trade is pure coincidence. 

Now you know. (For the why trade him now when things are looking up crowd.)

Yes.  Well stated.

[Larry Cook]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they get any sort of offer for Story, Breslow would say yes before the other team could reconsider. 

Atlanta needs a shortstop really badly!!!!

[mvp 78]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

Atlanta needs a shortstop really badly!!!!

They can have him. How much of the salary do they want to cover? That will depend on the return. 

[Larry Cook]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They can have him. How much of the salary do they want to cover? That will depend on the return. 

I am sure ozuna would be part of the return to us!! 

[cp176]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen? 

Houck looked ROUGH last night for WOO. Kutter is a back end guy, but could fill in if there's an injury. Harrison has some work to do in WOO before they'll call him up. It may be a while.

Agree - I’ve always been a big Houk fan, but he is at best an end of the rotation piece in my mind.  Long relief in my mind.  I would say the same thing about Crawford but I do think that Houk is the better of the two.

[Larry Cook]

I see the rotation currently as: 

1.) crochet - ace! 
2.) 

3.) 

4.) bello 

5.) dobbins 

veteran depth - beuhler and giolita 

We are missing a wing man for crochet (number 2 starter) and a quality pitcher for the 3rd spot in the rotation 

[Nick]

Putting on John Henry's hat.

There was an article that mentioned Red Sox and the Orioles as two teams having good operational income on the baseball front. I was bit surprised by mentioning of the Orioles. So maybe that was the more of reason we decided to spend money last winter. I have no explanation for the Orioles new ownership being cheap.

We gained about $3M for 2026 by trading Devers' contract with Crochet's new contract that starts in 2026.

Buehler's $21M won't be coming back. Maybe we fill that internally, Pat Sandoval is already being paid $9M for 2026 (it's already baked in for 2026 tax payroll). Say Crochet, Bello, Dobbins, Kutter, Houck, Kyle Harrison, Fitts, Criswell and maybe Tolle and Early will materialize during 2026. Keeping Giolito may end up eating up all of savings from Buehler. Kutter and Houck may get a slight arbitration raises to combined $10M.

The big ticket item will be replacing Chapman's $11M contract. I would love to see us sign him to a multiple year deal.

So assuming Buehler, Giolito and Chapman all leave, that gives us about $30M to acquire a closer and/or another high level starter. Arbitration raises to Houck and Kutter will be covered by leftover from getting rid of Dever's contract, net of Crochet raise. 

Jordan Hicks from Giants will add $10M to our payroll for 2026. It's nothing if we don't sign a closer and go internally. 

It's possible we'll have Slaten, Whitlock, Weissert along with Houck and Kutter as possible back end relievers. 

This is the area I'll give Breslow much credit. He has given us many options.

Do we go with another Buehler type signing for 2026 and then go all out for Boras client Tarik Skubal in 2026? That's what I would do. Downside is Detroit does have money to retain him. 

[Larry Cook]

Bres-slow seems to prefer signing placeholders in free agency and trading for young talent, MLB ready or not!!! 

[moonslav59]

Harrison may end up replacing Buehler after one more bad start. Otherwise, he goes to the pen.

Hicks should be a plus for our pen, and he can pitch multiple innings each appearance.

The Devers trade may have fixed the pen, and with an eventual return from Houck, Crawford, Slaten and a first time appearance by Sandoval, our pen could easily become a solid plus in 2025 as well as beyond, although we will need a closer for 2026.

I'm worried most about the rotation, despite the decent depth Brez amassed over the winter. I'm not totally confident that Bello and Dobbins can continue pitching like decent #2's or 3's. I'd rather view them as our #4-5, going forward. I have no faith that Houck can regain #2 status, and Crawford seems like a total unknown value piece for 2025. I have more faith in Sandoval or a resurgence by Buehler than Houck and or Crawford. Fitts could rebound. I'm not sure why Criswell has never started, after he did well as one, last year.

I'd love to see us trade for a second ace, but not a 2 month rental, unless we can extend the guy.

I'm not sure ATL is looking to buy, and why would they want Story's contract? Ozuna for Story and cash? Ozuna is just a  rental, and maybe Story could end up being a better bat than we think he can be, going forward. Ozuna does bat RH'd, so maybe he could be an answer, but ATL would likely want a prospect or two- not Story. They may demand Arias and Sandlin or Romero, Mullins and Clarke. Is that worth 2 months of 40 HR man Ozuna?