A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Larry Cook]

What kind of trade market exists for Bregman???

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Campbell needs to be given the chance to hit his way out of his slump. 

He will. Bregman is not due back for many weeks, and we now have an opening at DH.

Speaking of injuries:

60 Day IL: Crawford, Casas, Yoshida, Winckowski, Murphy

10 or 15 IL: Bregman, Houck, Slaten, Hendriks, Burdi, Perales (AA).

We could retroactively add Perales or Bregman to the 60, if we need a slot. It's interesting we DFA'd Penrod rather than add one to the 60, but maybe they saw something in Penrod that convinced them to cut ties.

(I missed the Andy Lugo for Jorge Alcala trade a few days ago.)

[moonslav59]

Team Control Years after 2025:

7+ 2 options Campbell

6+ 2 options Rafaela

6 + conditional option Crochet

5+ option Bello

2+ option Story

2 Yoshida, Hicks

1 + 2 options Whitlock

1 Sandoval

Opt outs: Bregman after 2025 and 2026

2026 option: Buehler & Hendriks (mutual) Giolito (club)

_________________________________

Arbs:

5+ Anthony, Mayer, Narvaez, Dobbins, Fitts, Jh Garcia, Eaton, Guerrero, Perales, Sogard

4 (or pre-arb then 3 arbs) Abreu, Slaten, Weissert, Harrison, DHam, Kelly, Criswell, Bernardino, Murphy, Grissom

3: Duran (1 signed + 2 arbs) Crawford, Casas, Romy, Toro, Wink, Wong

2 Houck, Toro, Burdi

1 Alcala

[dannycater]

Here is my realistic take of the 2025 Red Sox...bad franchise, only caring about a future that seems to be like kicking the can down the road. You want to pay a guy Devers money and then tell him we don't care for your fielding, then tell him nah, now we need you to field, then paint him as some clubhouse issue or whatever they want to do--the answer isn't giving up on him and trading him for basically nothing. It's the Sox way of things, when everything is going well, find a way to screw it up, take the feel good away. I went from finally getting excited a bit about the '25 Sox with Anthony/Mayer/Bello/Crochet and a return of Bregman to what's the point? Hard to remain a fan when the franchise is run by guys who tell Jim Rice you are not giving our talent the right hitting philosophy. Devers is the team's best hitter and one of the few reasons to come to a Sox game or watch it on TV--always a swing away from hitting a bomb. 

Edited June 16, 2025 by dannycater
misspell

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, dannycater said:

Here is my realistic take of the 2025 Red Sox...bad franchise, only caring about a future that seems to be like kicking the can down the road. You want to pay a guy Devers money and then tell him we don't care for your fielding, then tell him nah, now we need you to field, then paint him as some clubhouse issue or whatever they want to do--the answer isn't giving up on him and trading him for basically nothing. It's the Sox way of things, when everything is going well, find a way to screw it up, take the feel good away. I went from finally getting excited a bit about the '25 Sox with Anthony/Mayer/Bello/Crochet and a return of Bregman to what's the point? Hard to remain a fan when the franchise is run by guys who tell Jim Rice you are not giving our talent the right hitting philosophy. Devers is the team's best hitter and one of the few reasons to come to a Sox game or watch it on TV--always a swing away from hitting a bomb. 

*was

There, I fixed it for you.

[dannycater]

Just now, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

*was

There, I fixed it for you.

LOL, right.

[Larry Cook]

Detroit really needs a 3B! I am thinking bres-slow can get a top 10 Detroit prospect plus a reliever for Bregman!!!

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Detroit really needs a 3B! I am thinking bres-slow can get a top 10 Detroit prospect plus a reliever for Bregman!!!

Maybe through in a few complex league guys too? 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, dannycater said:

Here is my realistic take of the 2025 Red Sox...bad franchise, only caring about a future that seems to be like kicking the can down the road. You want to pay a guy Devers money and then tell him we don't care for your fielding, then tell him nah, now we need you to field, then paint him as some clubhouse issue or whatever they want to do--the answer isn't giving up on him and trading him for basically nothing. It's the Sox way of things, when everything is going well, find a way to screw it up, take the feel good away. I went from finally getting excited a bit about the '25 Sox with Anthony/Mayer/Bello/Crochet and a return of Bregman to what's the point? Hard to remain a fan when the franchise is run by guys who tell Jim Rice you are not giving our talent the right hitting philosophy. Devers is the team's best hitter and one of the few reasons to come to a Sox game or watch it on TV--always a swing away from hitting a bomb. 

I don't see it all this way, but nothing you said rings false, to me.

I lived with "wait till next year" for over 3 decades, and it nearly killed me. Okay, I'm exaggerating. It nearly killed all hope I ever had of seeing my favorite sports team win a championship.

Sometimes, I feel the four rings spoiled me into having unrealistic expectations. Afterall, there are 30 teams and fanbases with the same hope and desires I hold.

I do think our future (maybe) looks as bright as I have ever seen it look. That is worth something. As much as I enjoyed 2018 and felt that window would be open for 2-4 more seasons, I knew the time would come, where we'd either have to become a massively high spending team or have a complete rebuild. That rebuild came faster than I expected, and JH pushed it along with the Betts debacle and further cuts and poor choices on who runs the team and how.

We have a very solid base of young and talented players unde rteam control for many years and at relatively low costs, especially now that the Devers contract is gone and we are one year closer to the end of Story's and Yoshida's deals. Our lack of pitching futures can and should be addressed by spending and trading, as we did in the past, but we need to do better with those choices. The Crochet, Chapman and Wilson signings are three of the best we've seen in the last 5-6 years. The Buehler deal, not so much, so far. The Sandoval deal TBD.

It's weird, my wife thinks I concentrate too much on what can go wrong, but my coworkers and students always comment on how optimistic I always seem to be, even in light of all the crap that goes on in education. I guess I'm a little of both and can see both sides of some issues. I'm not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing, or that I'm better than anyone else for this, but I do still have some optimism in this team's future. JH's spending this last winter has given me new hope that maybe they see there is a clear window. I see it as open, now. maybe theys ee it as just starting to open, but either way, I'm hoping the spending comes to fill the gaps in our system.

[dannycater]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see it all this way, but nothing you said rings false, to me.

I lived with "wait till next year" for over 3 decades, and it nearly killed me. Okay, I'm exaggerating. It nearly killed all hope I ever had of seeing my favorite sports team win a championship.

Sometimes, I feel the four rings spoiled me into having unrealistic expectations. Afterall, there are 30 teams and fanbases with the same hope and desires I hold.

I do think our future (maybe) looks as bright as I have ever seen it look. That is worth something. As much as I enjoyed 2018 and felt that window would be open for 2-4 more seasons, I knew the time would come, where we'd either have to become a massively high spending team or have a complete rebuild. That rebuild came faster than I expected, and JH pushed it along with the Betts debacle and further cuts and poor choices on who runs the team and how.

We have a very solid base of young and talented players unde rteam control for many years and at relatively low costs, especially now that the Devers contract is gone and we are one year closer to the end of Story's and Yoshida's deals. Our lack of pitching futures can and should be addressed by spending and trading, as we did in the past, but we need to do better with those choices. The Crochet, Chapman and Wilson signings are three of the best we've seen in the last 5-6 years. The Buehler deal, not so much, so far. The Sandoval deal TBD.

It's weird, my wife thinks I concentrate too much on what can go wrong, but my coworkers and students always comment on how optimistic I always seem to be, even in light of all the crap that goes on in education. I guess I'm a little of both and can see both sides of some issues. I'm not saying that's a good thing or a bad thing, or that I'm better than anyone else for this, but I do still have some optimism in this team's future. JH's spending this last winter has given me new hope that maybe they see there is a clear window. I see it as open, now. maybe theys ee it as just starting to open, but either way, I'm hoping the spending comes to fill the gaps in our system.

It's fair and you are an optimist, at least as long as I've remembered...that and Tommy Harper and the Pilots. And defensive catcher ERA. glad you are still here doing your thing.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, dannycater said:

It's fair and you are an optimist, at least as long as I've remembered...that and Tommy Harper and the Pilots. And defensive catcher ERA. glad you are still here doing your thing.

I'm glad you are still around, too. 

I have my moments of feeling despair over the Sox, too.

[moonslav59]

Look how young our everyday players are...

C Narvaez (Rookie) 26 and Wong 29

1B Casas 25 and Romy & Toro (both 28)

2B Campbell (Rookie) 22 turns 23, soon, DHam 26

SS Mayer 22 (Rookie), Story 32

3B Bregman 31

LF Anthony (Rookie) 21

CF Rafaela 24 turns 25, soon

RF Abreu 26 in a few days, Refsnyder 34

DH Duran 28 turns 29, soon, Yoshida 32 soon

Refsnyder (34) may retire, after 2026 and Story & Yoshida (32) may not be around in 2026. (Bregman 31, may not be here in '26, either.)

4 Rookies

3 players with under 500 career PAs (Romy, DHam, Sogard)

4 players with just 750-1050 PAs: Wong, Casas, Rafaela & Abreu

Only 2 players with over 1800 PAs: Bregman & Story

[moonslav59]

A look at possible salary dump trade additions (and a few others) that might actually help. Here are teams the farthest out of a WC slot:

26 COL: I don't see anyone.

-14 CWS: Nope

-12 PIT M Keller ($55M/3) & D Bednar (1 arb left/$6M in '25, but of course, Skenes would be the grand prize.)

-11 MIA Alcantara ($38M/2) is having a tough year.

-10 WSH M Gore (2 arbs left) & K Finnegan ($5.3M rental)

-9 OAK: Nope

-8 ATL Sale ($22M in '25 + option) S Murphy ($45M/3) & R Iglesias ($16M rental)

-6 BAL Eflin ($18M rental) Sugano ($13M rental)

Borderline

-3 AZ Monty ($22M rental) E Suarez ($15M rental) Gallen ($13M rental) Naylor ($11M rental)

-3 STL (S Gray $25M/1 + option) Helsley ($8M rental)

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Sox Injury Updates (MLB.com expected return date)

Burdi (June 18) on rehab w Woo

Abreu (June 20) Taking swings

Houck: (early July) to Minor League rehab June 18

Bregman (July) Ultrasound shows considerable improvement.

Slaten (July) Isn't progressing as hoped.

Sandoval (possibly after ASB) Began throwing off mound.

Yoshida (after All-Star Break) Throwing w more intensity

Murphy (after ASB) on rehab, now

Hendriks (July at earliest) Started playing catch

Crawford (July/Aug) sore wrist prolonged expected pen session.

Casas (2026)

[Larry Cook]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Injury Updates (MLB.com expected return date)

Burdi (June 18) on rehab w Woo

Abreu (June 20) Taking swings

Houck: (early July) to Minor League rehab June 18

Bregman (July) Ultrasound shows considerable improvement.

Slaten (July) Isn't progressing as hoped.

Sandoval (possibly after ASB) Began throwing off mound.

Yoshida (after All-Star Break) Throwing w more intensity

Murphy (after ASB) on rehab, now

Hendriks (July at earliest) Started playing catch

Crawford (July/Aug) sore wrist prolonged expected pen session.

Casas (2026)

Sounds like slaten has more than a pinched nerve in his neck 

[moonslav59]

We are now holding the last WC slot by a half game over MN & SEA.

We are 1.5 behind TOR and 3.0 behind TBR.

Don't look, now, but the Yanks lost, tonight, and we are 5.5 GB them!

Whodathunk this 10 games ago?

 

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at the 2026 AAV budget:

31.7 Bregman (if no opt out)

28.3 Crochet

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

10.3 Hicks

9.2 Bello

9.1 Sandoval

8.0 Duran (club option taken)

7.5 Campbell

6.3 Rafaela

4.7 Whitlock

I'm assuming Bregman returns, Buehler, Gio & Hendriks do not return for their option years. With so many mutual options and various buyouts, I'm not sure what the cost will the lux tax budget.

The total for these 11 players plus buyout should be about $158M AAV. The tax line is $244M, so let's see how much the winter spending budget might be.

$18M Player Benefits + $1.7M Arb Pool brings us to about $178M.

Arb guesses: $5M Houck (2 of 3) $4.0M Crawford, $1.4M Wong (1 of 3) 1.3 Bernardino (1 of 4) 1.3 Casas (1 of 3) 1.0 Kelly (1 of 3)= $14M plus $8M remaining 26 and 40 man roster brings us to about $200M.

That leaves us $44M to spend and stay at the tax line.

That might get us Cease and Helsley.

I probably missed something.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Detroit really needs a 3B! I am thinking bres-slow can get a top 10 Detroit prospect plus a reliever for Bregman!!!

Why in the name of God do you want to move Bregman?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why in the name of God do you want to move Bregman?

Probably for fear that he will opt out at the end of the seaason.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Probably for fear that he will opt out at the end of the seaason.

It's a strange time to be thinking that when the Sox are on a 6 game win streak and right back in the hunt.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's a strange time to be thinking that when the Sox are on a 6 game win streak and right back in the hunt.

Not really when you consider that they have been struggling to stay above .500 all season and just traded their best player.

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

-11 MIA Alcantara ($38M/2) is having a tough year.

Real blow for Miami considering they planned to get a haul for him this year.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Not really when you consider that they have been struggling to stay above .500 all season and just traded their best player.

Bregman was and is their best player, and the Sox are on this run without him.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bregman was and is their best player, and the Sox are on this run without him.

Ok, 2nd best player....... and devers certainly was a big part of carrying this team with bregman on the sidelines.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox pitching is what's mainly responsible for this current run.  The Sox have 6 wins in a row in spite of only scoring 17 runs in those games.  I have no idea if it will continue.  It's baseball.

At least things are interesting again.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox pitching is what's mainly responsible for this current run.  The Sox have 6 wins in a row in spite of only scoring 17 runs in those games.  I have no idea if it will continue.  It's baseball.

At least things are interesting again.

So you think the sox would be 2 games over .500 without devers?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So you think the sox would be 2 games over .500 without devers?

Ask the CBO.

Breslow suggested that the Red Sox would be a better team without Devers, allowing the front office and clubhouse to move in the same direction with a "functional and complete team."

“I do think there’s a real chance that at the end of the season, we’re looking back and we’ve won more games than we otherwise would have," he said.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why in the name of God do you want to move Bregman?

Something is better than nothing!!!

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So you think the sox would be 2 games over .500 without devers?

Never said anything like that.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Something is better than nothing!!!

Have you given up on the playoffs for 2025?