A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If it's from an msn article, it ain't gonna happen. 

I hope it doesn't happen.

As a Yankee fan, I enjoy cora being the sox manager and hope he gets a lifetime contract.

[mvp 78]

 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I hope it doesn't happen.

As a Yankee fan, I enjoy cora being the sox manager and hope he gets a lifetime contract.

Did OK against them in 2018 and 2021 postseason though.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Did OK against them in 2018 and 2021 postseason though.

That's great, he's still well below .500 since 2021.

I still think he's an average manager at best who has lost control of the clubhouse.

[notin]

24 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I hope it doesn't happen.

As a Yankee fan, I enjoy cora being the sox manager and hope he gets a lifetime contract.

And we love Aaron Boone getting the same treatment…

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

And we love Aaron Boone getting the same treatment…

Cashman must have the lifetime deal, with only 1 title in his last 24 years as CBO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok, maybe equally reliable 

re- lie able means able to lie over and over again...

(dang, sorry -- no politics allowed).

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Cashman must have the lifetime deal, with only 1 title in his last 24 years as CBO.

$5 billion doesn’t buy what it used to…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

re- lie able means able to lie over and over again...

(dang, sorry -- no politics allowed).

If the Sox sweep the Yankees, you can talk about the 27th amendment as a treat on Monday. 

[mvp 78]

For all the fielding percentage heads on here: 

 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox sweep the Yankees, you can talk about the 27th amendment as a treat on Monday. 

Probably one of the 25 best amendments…

[dgalehouse]

19 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Add up every Sox player's bWAR and fWAR , divide by two and it should come out to 30-34. 

Just so you know, this was not a serious comment. Just another reminder that WAR is not a real stat. It's just a system that someone contrived for evaluating baseball players. 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Red Sox Predicted to Cut Ties With Alex Cora After Latest Comments

fingers crossed.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

For all the fielding percentage heads on here: 

 

WTF does this even mean?

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Just so you know, this was not a serious comment. Just another reminder that WAR is not a real stat. It's just a system that someone contrived for evaluating baseball players. 

Sure.  It's just a conglomeration of other numbers.  How much emphasis is placed on each number is where the differences in the systems come in.  As long as they stay consistent with their calculations, you sort of have an idea what you're looking at.  

WAR is being very good to Rafaela.  It's showing that even though he's been a below average hitter, he's been a well above average player.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

WTF does this even mean?

It's a new one.  I assume higher on the list is better LOL.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

WTF does this even mean?

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/fielding-run-value

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

It's a new one.  I assume higher on the list is better LOL.

We are in THE STATCAST ERA. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

We are in THE STATCAST ERA. 

And the Rabbit Hole Era.

[dgalehouse]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure.  It's just a conglomeration of other numbers.  How much emphasis is placed on each number is where the differences in the systems come in.  As long as they stay consistent with their calculations, you sort of have an idea what you're looking at.  

WAR is being very good to Rafaela.  It's showing that even though he's been a below average hitter, he's been a well above average player.

A lot of it is just opinion on the relative importance of different parts of the game.  Does anyone really think that Aroldis Chapman has only been slightly better than having some " replacement " jabroni out there trying to close games? Because that is what WAR would indicate. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the Rabbit Hole Era.

I used to have a Sport Magazine subscription when I was a kid and remember a story from 89/90 about nerds taking over baseball, but it was because of people looking at box scores for their Rotisserie Leagues... Oh the humanity.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And we love Aaron Boone getting the same treatment…

Never been a big Boone fan, but at least he makes the playoffs and gives them a shot on a consistent basis.

cora? Not so much.......

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

A lot of it is just opinion on the relative importance of different parts of the game.  Does anyone really think that Aroldis Chapman has only been slightly better than having some " replacement " jabroni out there trying to close games? Because that is what WAR would indicate. 

If Chapman is at 0.8 fWAR and Weissert is at 0.3 fWAR, it doesn't mean he's "slightly better," it means he's almost 200% better than him. It's like comparing a 1 fWAR and 3 fWAR guy. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

A lot of it is just opinion on the relative importance of different parts of the game.  Does anyone really think that Aroldis Chapman has only been slightly better than having some " replacement " jabroni out there trying to close games? Because that is what WAR would indicate. 

Chapman has a 1.2 bWAR.  For a reliever at this point in the season that's excellent.  WAR is a counting number like strikeouts or RBI, and relievers only pitch about 1/3 as many innings as starters, so I always multiply by 3.  That would be 3.6, which projects to about 8 WAR for the season, which is elite level.  

[notin]

18 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

A lot of it is just opinion on the relative importance of different parts of the game.  Does anyone really think that Aroldis Chapman has only been slightly better than having some " replacement " jabroni out there trying to close games? Because that is what WAR would indicate. 

“Jabronis” are still pitchers capable of making an MLB roster and are therefore still immensely talented…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Chapman is at 0.8 fWAR and Weissert is at 0.3 fWAR, it doesn't mean he's "slightly better," it means he's almost 200% better than him. It's like comparing a 1 fWAR and 3 fWAR guy. 

You got me. I recently posted WAR definitions from bb-ref and fangraphs, where both stress that WAR numbers are estimates, and therefore unreliable (my word today, no lie) to compare players to the decimal places.

And don't ever order a slice of pie at any bakery named Pie R Squared.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You got me. I recently posted WAR definitions from bb-ref and fangraphs, where both stress that WAR numbers are estimates, and therefore unreliable (my word today, no lie) to compare players to the decimal places.

And don't ever order a slice of pie at any bakery named Pie R Squared.

I think fWAR is a good reference point when we're talking about players AT THE END OF THE YEAR, but it's definitely not the be all end all. It can be part of the conversation, but can't be the whole thing. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Red Sox Predicted to Cut Ties With Alex Cora After Latest Comments

Rubbish.

[moonslav59]

Average WAR (FWAR, bWAR)

2.8 Bregman 2.5, 3.0 (Out for a while)

2.2 Devers 2.0, 2.3 (Like last season, on pace for career year)

2.1 Rafaela 1.7, 2.4 (Nobody doubts his FT status, anymore)

2.0 Narvaez 2.0, 1.9 (Biggest Sox surprise)

1.6 Abreu 1.4, 1.8 (Had a great start to the season)

1.3 Duran 1.2, 1.3 (Regressed from 2024, but heating up)

0.7 Refsnyder 0.6, 0.7 (in 1/3 ro 1/4 the playing time)

0.3 Romy 0.2, 0.3 (missed some time)

0.2 DHam 0.1, 0.3 (Decent utility player)

0.1 Toro 0.0, 0.1 (Should have has better depth)

0.0 Wong 0.0, -0.1 (No longer the FT'er)

0.0 Mayer 0.0, 0.0 (Seems to be a plus, so far)

0.0 Story -0.3, 0.3 (Big differential between f & b)

-0.2 Sogard -0.3, -0.2 (Surprised he has over 50 PA)

-0.3 Campbell -0.1, -0.5 (Needs to turn it around)

-0.7 Casas -0.6, -0.9 (Out for season)

Pitchers:

2.6 Crochet 2.4, 2.7 (All we hoped he'd be and leads the league in IP)

1.0 Chapman 0.8, 1.2 (Has kept us somewhat relevant)

0.6 Dobbins 0.8, 0.3 (Better than we expected)

0.6 Wilson 0.6, 0.6 (Surprise of the staff)

0.5 Whitlock 0.5, 0.4 (We need him to be on)

0.5 Weissert 0.3, 0.6 (Quietly gets the job done)

 

0.3 Bernardino 0.3, 0.3 (Nice to see him regain)

0.3 Buehler 0.3, 0.2 (We need better from our $20M man)

0.3 Bello 0.1, 0.4 (fWAR slights him)

0.2 Slaten 0.4, 0.0 (bWAR slights him)

0.2 Burdi 0.1, 0.2 (On IL)

0.2 Newcomb 0.6, -0.2 (GONE)

0.1 Winkowski 0.2, -0.1 (Still in Cora's doghouse?)

-0,2 Fitts -0.2, -0.2 (Seems like better than this)

-0.2 Criswell -0,1, -0.3 (Should be a starter)

-0.2 Hendricks 0.0, -0.3 (Close to a DFA)

-0.3 Giolito 0.1, -0.6 (Big differential)

-0.4 Kelly 0.1, -0.8 (Even bigger differential)

-0.1 Houck -0.4, -1.6 (Killed us)

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Just so you know, this was not a serious comment. Just another reminder that WAR is not a real stat. It's just a system that someone contrived for evaluating baseball players. 

Poorly defining a stat isn't an argument against said stat.