A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

On 5/16/2025 at 12:13 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

That's sort of a problem with OPS - differences tend to look smaller.  .757 is about 9% higher than .696.  Over the course of 162 games that's significant.  Managers are supposed to play the percentages.  

I never said the manager should ignore those differences.  My point is that managers should feel free to go against the percentages based on what he is seeing on the field of play.  Last night was a good example of that when both starters went 7 innings.  

On the other hand, as recently as last season (or was it the year before), almost all of us cringed when Houck faced a lineup for the 3d time. 

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

There is a general miasma surrounding the team. The fans feel it and the results show it. Critical errors in the field and on the bases, relief pitchers who refuse to throw strikes, batters who whiff over and over and especially with men on base.  If there is a thing called momentum, the Sox have it in a negative direction. There is significant talent on this team but all, except for a few, (Bregman, Crochet and Chapman per example) are playing below their capabilities. What causes it? A couple of thoughts are the Devers situation causing negative vibes and Cora himself with his placid take on what is happening. Some players may be sensitive to the negativism, Duran for instance. 

What I have recommended is a shakeup to put a spark and some energy back  into the play. Bench or trade some players, bring up Anthony and Mayer. The upside is they provide energy and pull the team out of a funk and the downside is the team is no better but our  future stars gain experience. I'm at a point where I think we need a change of style at manager. I would recommend replacing Cora to get a more aggressive manager in place but doubt the  Sox will do it.  

You could be right about the miasma and certainly others have pointed out the errors, lousy baserunning, striking out with men on base, walks and other failures by the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, etc.

My no doubt pollyanna view is that players want to excel in every game.  Thus one of the all-time great grabs by Abreu and Rafaela a couple of games ago--in a losing cause, but it was a game-saver when it happened.  Or Duran's 5 triples out of 7 by the whole team.  

I like what I've seen of these Sox players:  Bregman, Abreu, Rafaela, Devers, Narvaez, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Campbell, and even Duran.  Among the pitchers I like Crochet and Chapman of course, but also Bello, Wilson, Fitts, Weissert, Dobbins, Buehler, Giolito, and Bernardino.  

That doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Mayer and Anthony moved up.  I would put Anthony in LF and keep Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF.  Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, and Campbell to 1b--or leave Campbell at 2b, bench Story, and put Gonzalez at 1b.  

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You know things are going badly for the Sox, when MADSTORK shows up, and Red's posts quadruple in number.

Time to become positive about their chances again to counteract the negativity. 
 

🤗

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Time to become positive about their chances again to counteract the negativity. 
 

🤗

The negativity  On here is mild compared to other venues as is the hot seat for Cora unless you think the Red Sox are competing well Right?

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The negativity  On here is mild compared to other venues as is the hot seat for Cora unless you think the Red Sox are competing well Right?

They’re doing their best! Cora should take them for ice cream after tonight’s game win or lose.

[Larry Cook]

Our problem is that most of our offense cannot get a hit in crucial situations! 
 

I would much rather see the kids get a chance than see our team as currently configured 

[moonslav59]

Thanks in part to the Sox, the Tigers are looking better than all other AL teams at 30-15. I'm doubting they can play to that level, all year, but they do have some exciting players and a true ace. The Yanks, M's, Guardians, Twins and Royals make up the rest of the current playoff slot holders with the Royals at 25-21. That's one game better than HOU and TEX. It's strange to see just one ALE team in the top 9, as the A's are #9, right now at 22-23.

The Sox, Jays and Rays are bunched up at #10, #10 and #11:

-3 BOS 22-24 and TOR 21-23

-4 TBR 20-24

As bad as we have looked, minus three is a gift from so many other teams not playing great baseball.

It's hard to be optimistic at a time like this. Losing 4 in a row is hard to spin into anything hopeful. It doesn't make it any easier to see we have a plau 13 run differential, and in fact, I think it makes it even harder to swallow.

This sucks, and there is no doubting that. The good thing about baseball is that the season is 162 games long, and we have 116 left to play and more days off coming than just about everyone else.

We need to get Buehler and Fitts back and pitching well. Maybe it will help by moving a SP'er or two to the pen. Maybe not. Our D has looked a little better, but we keep making dumb errors. We are still making our share of dumb base running errors, too. One day,  the starter looks good and the pen implodes, then the reverse. One day our bats look great, then kaput. 

We can't seem to get it all working, at the same time, for any extended stretch. I can see why fans are throwing blame at Cora, and the roster construction issue has remained at or near front and center since the Mookie trade. 

Games are not won on paper, but I still look at our players and those on other teams, and I think we should be a top 6 team in the AL.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks in part to the Sox, the Tigers are looking better than all other AL teams at 30-15. I'm doubting they can play to that level, all year, but they do have some exciting players and a true ace. The Yanks, M's, Guardians, Twins and Royals make up the rest of the current playoff slot holders with the Royals at 25-21. That's one game better than HOU and TEX. It's strange to see just one ALE team in the top 9, as the A's are #9, right now at 22-23.

The Sox, Jays and Rays are bunched up at #10, #10 and #11:

-3 BOS 22-24 and TOR 21-23

-4 TBR 20-24

As bad as we have looked, minus three is a gift from so many other teams not playing great baseball.

It's hard to be optimistic at a time like this. Losing 4 in a row is hard to spin into anything hopeful. It doesn't make it any easier to see we have a plau 13 run differential, and in fact, I think it makes it even harder to swallow.

This sucks, and there is no doubting that. The good thing about baseball is that the season is 162 games long, and we have 116 left to play and more days off coming than just about everyone else.

We need to get Buehler and Fitts back and pitching well. Maybe it will help by moving a SP'er or two to the pen. Maybe not. Our D has looked a little better, but we keep making dumb errors. We are still making our share of dumb base running errors, too. One day,  the starter looks good and the pen implodes, then the reverse. One day our bats look great, then kaput. 

We can't seem to get it all working, at the same time, for any extended stretch. I can see why fans are throwing blame at Cora, and the roster construction issue has remained at or near front and center since the Mookie trade. 

Games are not won on paper, but I still look at our players and those on other teams, and I think we should be a top 6 team in the AL.

It could be an exciting battle to see which of the 4 teams behind the Yankems finishes last in the AL East. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

It could be an exciting battle to see which of the 4 teams behind the Yankems finishes last in the AL East. 

 

I'm still not sold that the Yanks are for real, but they have played well, so far, and look way better than the rest of the division, so far.

[illinoisredsox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks in part to the Sox, the Tigers are looking better than all other AL teams at 30-15. I'm doubting they can play to that level, all year, but they do have some exciting players and a true ace. The Yanks, M's, Guardians, Twins and Royals make up the rest of the current playoff slot holders with the Royals at 25-21. That's one game better than HOU and TEX. It's strange to see just one ALE team in the top 9, as the A's are #9, right now at 22-23.

The Sox, Jays and Rays are bunched up at #10, #10 and #11:

-3 BOS 22-24 and TOR 21-23

-4 TBR 20-24

As bad as we have looked, minus three is a gift from so many other teams not playing great baseball.

It's hard to be optimistic at a time like this. Losing 4 in a row is hard to spin into anything hopeful. It doesn't make it any easier to see we have a plau 13 run differential, and in fact, I think it makes it even harder to swallow.

This sucks, and there is no doubting that. The good thing about baseball is that the season is 162 games long, and we have 116 left to play and more days off coming than just about everyone else.

We need to get Buehler and Fitts back and pitching well. Maybe it will help by moving a SP'er or two to the pen. Maybe not. Our D has looked a little better, but we keep making dumb errors. We are still making our share of dumb base running errors, too. One day,  the starter looks good and the pen implodes, then the reverse. One day our bats look great, then kaput. 

We can't seem to get it all working, at the same time, for any extended stretch. I can see why fans are throwing blame at Cora, and the roster construction issue has remained at or near front and center since the Mookie trade. 

Games are not won on paper, but I still look at our players and those on other teams, and I think we should be a top 6 team in the AL.

They’ve played that well for the last 1/2 season if you go back to last year.  They finished 2024 by going 31-13, so they are now 61-28 since last August 10th (postseason excluded but they went 4-3 there as well).

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

They’ve played that well for the last 1/2 season if you go back to last year.  They finished 2024 by going 31-13, so they are now 61-28 since last August 10th (postseason excluded but they went 4-3 there as well).

This roster is significantly different from last year's, so I'm not sure I'd count that. all that much.

[Randy Red Sox]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This roster is significantly different from last year's, so I'm not sure I'd count that. all that much.

it doesn't make any difference the way the Sox are playing.  They are more likely to finish last rather than 1st in the AL East

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it doesn't make any difference the way the Sox are playing.  They are more likely to finish last rather than 1st in the AL East

Assuming teams continue playing like they have over a 42-44 game sample size, yes.

No argument on that.

[moonslav59]

BAL canned their manager, today. A lot of teams ahead of us lost, today, so the win was very helpful.

We are 2 down in the WC race, with 2 teams to leapfrog for a slot. That's pretty telling, when you consider how badly we have played. The AL final WC slot is just about anybody's, except maybe the CWS, with BAL trying hard to fall out of contention, early.

The NL had 4 teams 7 or more games back from the final WC slot.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Under the heading Defensive Runs Saved the Sox rank 16th in MLB (6). Sox catchers rank #1 with 9. The Sox OF is tied for 2nd with 12. 1st base (-7) and second base(-6) are near the bottom, only Washington is worse. 3rd base(3) and SS(-1).

Texas leads with 31.

Btw, the two worst teams are the A's (-40) and the Phillies (-31).

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BAL canned their manager, today. A lot of teams ahead of us lost, today, so the win was very helpful.

We are 2 down in the WC race, with 2 teams to leapfrog for a slot. That's pretty telling, when you consider how badly we have played. The AL final WC slot is just about anybody's, except maybe the CWS, with BAL trying hard to fall out of contention, early.

The NL had 4 teams 7 or more games back from the final WC slot.

After winning one game Moon is back after a long absence posting an Wildcard update. More accurate the Red Sox are behind 6 teams in the L column 2-4 games, and tied with two others in the L column, so not quite  the rosy picture you are presenting.

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Under the heading Defensive Runs Saved the Sox rank 16th in MLB (6). Sox catchers rank #1 with 9. The Sox OF is tied for 2nd with 12. 1st base (-7) and second base(-6) are near the bottom, only Washington is worse. 3rd base(3) and SS(-1).

Texas leads with 31.

Btw, the two worst teams are the A's (-40) and the Phillies (-31).

I know the Yankees are thrilled with Elmer, but I been equally impressed with narveaz. 

do the Yankees have a near ready triple A first baseman we can trade them Sandlin for????

[dgalehouse]

Phillies' hard throwing closer, Jose Alvarado busted for steroids. 80 game suspension plus ineligible for post season play. Alvarado says that he must have taken them inadvertently, thinking it was a weight loss drug. Lol. 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Old Red said:

After winning one game Moon is back after a long absence posting an Wildcard update. 

Kind of a weird obsession with my types of postings.

[moonslav59]

Here is a 2 part trivia question:

1. How can a player get up to bat for the first time in the 8th inning without being a pinch hitter or defensive substitute?

2. Who was the Sox player who did this, while scoring 2 runs in that inning with just 1 PA (a HR?) That is a hint for Q #1.

(This player was not removed for the 9th inning, yet never took the field on defense. He was not a pitcher.)

[oldtimer]

On 5/17/2025 at 12:50 PM, Maxbialystock said:

You could be right about the miasma and certainly others have pointed out the errors, lousy baserunning, striking out with men on base, walks and other failures by the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, etc.

My no doubt pollyanna view is that players want to excel in every game.  Thus one of the all-time great grabs by Abreu and Rafaela a couple of games ago--in a losing cause, but it was a game-saver when it happened.  Or Duran's 5 triples out of 7 by the whole team.  

I like what I've seen of these Sox players:  Bregman, Abreu, Rafaela, Devers, Narvaez, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Campbell, and even Duran.  Among the pitchers I like Crochet and Chapman of course, but also Bello, Wilson, Fitts, Weissert, Dobbins, Buehler, Giolito, and Bernardino.  

That doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Mayer and Anthony moved up.  I would put Anthony in LF and keep Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF.  Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, and Campbell to 1b--or leave Campbell at 2b, bench Story, and put Gonzalez at 1b.  

 

 

 

At least you would take action and try some alternatives. Cora is not doing that and may not until the season is history. At my age, I don't have a lot of years to await the Sox return to playoff contention. I want action now.

[illinoisredsox]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a 2 part trivia question:

1. How can a player get up to bat for the first time in the 8th inning without being a pinch hitter or defensive substitute?

2. Who was the Sox player who did this, while scoring 2 runs in that inning with just 1 PA (a HR?) That is a hint for Q #1.

(This player was not removed for the 9th inning, yet never took the field on defense. He was not a pitcher.)

The first part is easy.  Player come in as a pinch runner and the team bats around until the pr’s slot in the batting order comes up.

The second part, I remember it happening but I can’t recall the player.  In this case, he obviously ran for the DH, which is why he didn’t take the field.

[jad]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a 2 part trivia question:

1. How can a player get up to bat for the first time in the 8th inning without being a pinch hitter or defensive substitute?

2. Who was the Sox player who did this, while scoring 2 runs in that inning with just 1 PA (a HR?) That is a hint for Q #1.

(This player was not removed for the 9th inning, yet never took the field on defense. He was not a pitcher.)

Well, let's see.  Must be a pinch runner? who then comes up to hit later? Home team then wins and does not come to bat in the 9th?

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, illinoisredsox said:

The first part is easy.  Player come in as a pinch runner and the team bats around until the pr’s slot in the batting order comes up.

The second part, I remember it happening but I can’t recall the player.  In this case, he obviously ran for the DH, which is why he didn’t take the field.

Correct. Darren Lewis ran for DH Manny Ramirez with 2 outs in the 8th. He scored as the team had 9 straight hits, including his HR!

1 PA, 2 Runs scores, 1 HR- no time in the field, as he was the DH on the bench for the 9th inning.

April 18, 2001 vs the Rays

[Larry Cook]

Bello is terrible in day games. Ugh!!!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Phillies' hard throwing closer, Jose Alvarado busted for steroids. 80 game suspension plus ineligible for post season play. Alvarado says that he must have taken them inadvertently, thinking it was a weight loss drug. Lol. 

At least he didn't blame his wife like someone we all know .

[Old Red]

A year ago at this time the Red Sox were 23-24, and 9 games back of both the Yankees, and O’s. This year not only is the A.L. East the weakest it’s been in years, but the whole American League itself, so where the Red Sox reside in the standings this year with their losing record doesn’t look as bad. Boston hasn’t gotten better, but the division, and league has come back down to them. What a low bar this is that the Red Sox can’t get over.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have played poorly and lost too many games they shoulda/coulda won.

Game aren't won "on paper," and we are watching that, first hand.

Our rotation finally got the depth we wanted, but we've already reached #10 and #11 on the winter depth chart. The pen was expected to have major issues, and they have not let us down on that projection. The offense has been too sporadic and has lacked timely hitting. The defense should have improved by more than it has shown.

It remains to be seen, if we can or will turn things around. Maybe some returning SP'ers will give is a boost. They can't be much worse than Gio & Houck. Maybe moving a SP to the pen will bolster it, but I'm not sure Gio will do any better as a RP'er.

We still have over two-thirds of a season left. We've seen very little to be encouraged about, but in baseball, things often change on a dime. I'm hopeful but not very optimistic, as of now.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Red Sox have played poorly and lost too many games they shoulda/coulda won.

These things tend to average out over the season.

I'm sure they've won some games that they "shoulda/coulda" lost.

[bkzwhitestrican]

On 5/17/2025 at 7:29 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm still not sold that the Yanks are for real, but they have played well, so far, and look way better than the rest of the division, so far.

I think the Yanks are more good than great this year, but the majority of the AL has been downright bad so it's making them look great by comparison. Looking around the league, you could argue that 8 of the 10 best teams in baseball are in the NL (Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, Cubs, Giants, Braves, Cardinals in the NL, Tigers and Yanks in the AL).