A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[notin]

21 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Cora wasn't the manager in 2020. He was suspended and Ron Roenicke took the helm. Roenicke seemed disconnected and/or disinterested and the results were awful. I think this season will be a good test for Cora. The division is very winnable.

While true, Ron Roenicke certainly wasn’t the problem with the 2020 team.  A roster so weak Ryan Weber was the number 3 starter and the big offensive addition that off-season was Jose Peraza were both much larger factors.  Connie Mack and Casey Stengel could have been resurrected to lead that team and it was still going to come in last.  That the Sox won 24 out of 60 games that year was a pretty disposing result…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What I always look at is the "standings".

2021 Red Sox were #20 in Ks - so better than average.

2022 #17

2023 #18

2024 #3

2025 #1 (Colorado has a higher rate per game)

 

That is a major shift, and when you figure in that all teams seem to be K'ing more and more, our increase has been astounding.

What's worse is that our HR totals, BA, OBP and SLG are not improving by swinging more or harder.

2021>2022>2023.2024>2025

BA: .261>.258>.258>.252>.250

OBP: .328>.321>.324. >319> .330

SLG: .449>.409>.424>.423>.375

ISO: .188>.152>.166>,171>,124

It's not working- whatever we are doing.

I'm not so sure we can blame "roster construction," since most of the decline is attributed to players that were on the roster in the past 2-5 years- not the newbies like Bregman, Campbell, Narvaez and Romy, Abreu and Casas, who were not playing at all or that much in 2021 and 2022 and some in 2023.

For this, I can see why people want to blame the coaches and manager.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

At th were associated with the defensive changes. 

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

At the beginning of the season the Sox were looking for an improved defense and as you point out there were a number of changes which should have made that possible. There were some negatives that were associated with the defensive changes. 

 

On paper, I did not see a single position that got worse on D from 2024 to 2025:

Catcher: Wong=Wong and Narvaez> McGuire

1B: Casas=Casas

2B: Campbell (DHam/Romy)> Evaldez, Reyes, Grissom

SS: Story>> Rafaela, DHam, others

3B: Bragman >>Devers

LF: Duran FT> Duran, O'Neal & Ref

CF: Rafaela> Duran & Rafaela

RF: Abreu & O'Neal/Refsnyder= Abreu & Refsnyder

Just goes to show you how "on paper" does not always equate to on the field.

[Nick]

It's time to bring up Anthony. There's at most 170 days left this season. He can not accrue 172 days he needs to earn a year's service time. 

We can control him for 6 years and 170 days.

I just don't see anyway he's NOT better offensively than Rafael.

 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Nick said:

It's time to bring up Anthony. There's at most 170 days left this season. He can not accrue 172 days he needs to earn a year's service time. 

We can control him for 6 years and 170 days.

I just don't see anyway he's NOT better offensively than Rafael.

I don't disagree, but fWAR says Rafaela is not our weak point.

1.1 Abreu

0.7 Campbell

0.3 Rafaela, Bregman, Story (before today)

0.2 Devers & Narvaez

-0.2 Duran

-0.5 Casas

If we call up Anthony, he should play FT. We could platoon Rafaela & Abreu and play Rafaela at SS and 2B a few games, so he does not need to be totally phased out, but what about Refsnyder?

I'm wonder if we have considered trading Ref or Raf.

[moonslav59]

OBP Leaders

.524 Romy (21 PAs)

.468 Abreu

.409 Campbell

.351 Devers

.342 Bregman

.328 Story

SLG%

.611 Romy

.600 Abreu

.491 Campbell

.477 Story

.464 Bregman

.359 Devers

TB

32 Bregman

31 Story

30 Abreu

27 Campbell

23 Devers

21 Duran

ERA

1.38 Crochet

3.18 Fitts

3.60 Dobbins

4.41 Houck

4.97 Newcomb

5.74 Buehler

Pen

1.29 Chapman

1.69 Bernardino

2.79 Whitlock

2.84 Weissert

3.18 Wink

3.60 Wilson

 

[Nick]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

OBP Leaders

.524 Romy (21 PAs)

.468 Abreu

.409 Campbell

.351 Devers

.342 Bregman

.328 Story

SLG%

.611 Romy

.600 Abreu

.491 Campbell

.477 Story

.464 Bregman

.359 Devers

TB

32 Bregman

31 Story

30 Abreu

27 Campbell

23 Devers

21 Duran

ERA

1.38 Crochet

3.18 Fitts

3.60 Dobbins

4.41 Houck

4.97 Newcomb

5.74 Buehler

Pen

1.29 Chapman

1.69 Bernardino

2.79 Whitlock

2.84 Weissert

3.18 Wink

3.60 Wilson

 

I just hope Fitts is not out for extended period.

[Maxbialystock]

7 hours ago, notin said:

While true, Ron Roenicke certainly wasn’t the problem with the 2020 team.  A roster so weak Ryan Weber was the number 3 starter and the big offensive addition that off-season was Jose Peraza were both much larger factors.  Connie Mack and Casey Stengel could have been resurrected to lead that team and it was still going to come in last.  That the Sox won 24 out of 60 games that year was a pretty disposing result…

Much ado about nothing.  The 2020 season was meaningless even though I understand why MLB decided to do something rather than nothing.,  

2021 was a pretty good season, but 2022-24 weren't.    The worst season, however, had to be 2019 when the Sox had the biggest payroll and couldn't even make the postseason.  Thus did JH let DD go.  

[Maxbialystock]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On paper, I did not see a single position that got worse on D from 2024 to 2025:

Catcher: Wong=Wong and Narvaez> McGuire

1B: Casas=Casas

2B: Campbell (DHam/Romy)> Evaldez, Reyes, Grissom

SS: Story>> Rafaela, DHam, others

3B: Bragman >>Devers

LF: Duran FT> Duran, O'Neal & Ref

CF: Rafaela> Duran & Rafaela

RF: Abreu & O'Neal/Refsnyder= Abreu & Refsnyder

Just goes to show you how "on paper" does not always equate to on the field.

I've seen some nasty errors, including at least a couple that led to a loss.  But overall I like this defense.  They lead MLB in turning double plays, which are the pitcher's best friend.  

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I've seen some nasty errors, including at least a couple that led to a loss.  But overall I like this defense.  They lead MLB in turning double plays, which are the pitcher's best friend.  

I gotta think the D will come around, but Geeeezzz!

[Larry Cook]

9 straight games of offensive ineptitude! I think Cora needs to inject some life into to our offense. Time to sit Devers and bring in Anthony from Worcester!!!!  
maybe bat at Casas in the 8th hole 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

9 straight games of offensive ineptitude! I think Cora needs to inject some life into to our offense. Time to sit Devers and bring in Anthony from Worcester!!!!  
maybe bat at Casas in the 8th hole 

Devers has a plus OPS+ (105,) and these guys don't:

69 Duran, 60 Rafaela, 58 Refsnyder & Casas.

Plus, I doubt we call up Anthony to DH.

LF; Anthony v R/Duran v L

CF: Duranv R/ Rafaela v L

RF: Abreu v R/Anthony v L

 

[mvp 78]

Sox offense is 2nd in hard hit and were even smoking the ball yesterday (contrary to what some people thought in the game thread yesterday). They are just not getting the right launch angle at the moment. I believe the offense will turn it around eventually. 

[moonslav59]

We are 8-9 out of the gate and lost to some bad team, so the sky is falling, ax the manager, trade or demote our best two 2024 players and we will surely win.

Geeeeesh!

[Nick]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We are 8-9 out of the gate and lost to some bad team, so the sky is falling, ax the manager, trade or demote our best two 2024 players and we will surely win.

Geeeeesh!

I think its ok to shift the lineup. Cora did the right thing by moving down Casas. He can come back up as soon as his hitting heats up.

I just think Anthony belongs on the varsity team.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We are 8-9 out of the gate and lost to some bad team, so the sky is falling, ax the manager, trade or demote our best two 2024 players and we will surely win.

Geeeeesh!

They aren't going to dump Cora because they just extended him. If they fire Fatse, who are they going to replace him with? What great hitting coach is sitting at home waiting for a call mid April? 

Sox are 7th highest in k%. The number is trending in the right direction, just slowly. Right now, they just aren't showing a lot of power and the defense is inconsistent.

Duran and Casas at the top of the lineup just aren't getting it done. However, Duran is 88th percentile in exit velo and 74th percentile in hard hit %. His hits will start falling in. Casas is only 21st percentile in hard hit. Combining that with his bad defense is really weighing down the top of the lineup. However, he did only have a 533 OPS going into the same day on 2023 and ended up having a pretty solid year. There's still time.

The defense isn't going to be helped if they keep moving Campbell between OF/2B. He will continue to struggle. Duran has also started off the year slow in LF (-3 DRS, -2 OAA). He can probably turn it around. Casas has always been horrible at 1B and that won't be fixed until there's a replacement. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Much ado about nothing.  The 2020 season was meaningless even though I understand why MLB decided to do something rather than nothing.,  

2021 was a pretty good season, but 2022-24 weren't.    The worst season, however, had to be 2019 when the Sox had the biggest payroll and couldn't even make the postseason.  Thus did JH let DD go.  

2019 also came after 3 straight division titles and 1 World Series championship.  And I don't think the 2019 disappointment in itself was the reason DD was let go.  It was "new direction" time.  

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We are 8-9 out of the gate and lost to some bad team, so the sky is falling, ax the manager, trade or demote our best two 2024 players and we will surely win.

Geeeeesh!

Yeah, there's a lot of over-reaction.  Maybe I'm guilty as well with my questioning of Fatse and Lawson, but the problems I'm pointing out didn't just start in these 16 games.  

As always, the good news is the team pays no attention to any of us!

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2019 also came after 3 straight division titles and 1 World Series championship.  And I don't think the 2019 disappointment in itself was the reason DD was let go.  It was "new direction" time.  

Yeah, it wasn't just 2019. There was clearly more to it than that. Internally, DD and Sam didn't get along. Sam is the go between for Henry. DD wanted to run a lot of things on his own and that's not really how Henry wants things done. Henry is much more comfortable with more inexperienced guys like Theo, Ben, Bloom and Breslow. DD wasn't a good fit even though the results on the field fit with our expectations as fans.

[vegasbob]

On 4/13/2025 at 4:56 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

When a team leads the majors in both strikeouts and errors, it stinks. Ks and Es are the two most embarrassing failures on the diamond, immortalized in pop culture from "Casey at the Bat" to Charlie Brown. 

There's no "it's still early" if you can't catch the ball or hit the ball. That's a personnel issue.

It's not like when the temperatures warm up, they'll activate some heat-attracting magnets in glove pockets or bat barrels.

Swing-and-miss haunts the Red Sox in the field and batter's box more than any other team. Maybe by summer, Boston players can develop softer hands on defense and harder hits at bat -- but then opponents will also.

Some want to blame the manager for not motivating his roster. But what can be more motivating than playing to keep a job? The infielders and outfielders know there are guys in Worcester just as good or better than they are, just waiting for the call...

Regarding motivation , internal or external,  once certain guys get paid ($$$$) there may be a natural letdown in the hard work and mental approach that got them there.   How does Cora motivate a young kid who just went from dirt poor at home  3 years ago to be a multi-millionaire ?   It has to mess with their heads  .

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

I think its ok to shift the lineup. Cora did the right thing by moving down Casas. He can come back up as soon as his hitting heats up.

I just think Anthony belongs on the varsity team.

GEEZ -- I can't believe you're echoing what other posters already suggested. How dare anyone talk sox on talksox!

We should all be happy we can pay bad money to watch baseball. And no one in New England should be excused for banging the doldrums slowly because of depressing rain and cold for the entire first half of this month.

But let it be known -- today on April 14th, Two thousand twenty-five -- the SUN IS OUT! (wait, I just took off my sweatshirt... and it's not yet noon, so it's still early... don't panic!)

[mvp 78]

Catching talk doesn't usually get a lot of traction on here, so I'm not going to make another thread. 

I don't want to see Sabol in BOS again. Send him to WOO to go hit dingers and impersonate Joe Kelly. 

With Wong out, Ice Cream Boy Chris Cotillo suggests that the Sox could look externally for someone to bridge the gap until Wong is healthy. The names listed are veteran guys sitting in AAA at various orgs. Nobody interesting is listed and it's a lot of guys with relatively questionable defense (the James McCanns of the world). Why trade for a guy that is going to give you a 600 OPS or below with bad defense? 

Internally, there are a few options. 

1. Seby Zavala - good defensive profile, but horrible offense and has STRUGGLED this season (47% k rate)

2. Yasmani Grandal - good defensive profile for framing, but can't throw anyone out, may have clubhouse issues and had no Spring Training to get ready (was told he had 2 weeks to get ready or he was getting dumped, reportedly)

3. Mark Kolozsvary - great defensive profile, well below average offense, has MLB experience and calls a great game

Is it Mark Kolzsvary time? 

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Catching talk doesn't usually get a lot of traction on here, so I'm not going to make another thread. 

I don't want to see Sabol in BOS again. Send him to WOO to go hit dingers and impersonate Joe Kelly. 

With Wong out, Ice Cream Boy Chris Cotillo suggests that the Sox could look externally for someone to bridge the gap until Wong is healthy. The names listed are veteran guys sitting in AAA at various orgs. Nobody interesting is listed and it's a lot of guys with relatively questionable defense (the James McCanns of the world). Why trade for a guy that is going to give you a 600 OPS or below with bad defense? 

Internally, there are a few options. 

1. Seby Zavala - good defensive profile, but horrible offense and has STRUGGLED this season (47% k rate)

2. Yasmani Grandal - good defensive profile for framing, but can't throw anyone out, may have clubhouse issues and had no Spring Training to get ready (was told he had 2 weeks to get ready or he was getting dumped, reportedly)

3. Mark Kolozsvary - great defensive profile, well below average offense, has MLB experience and calls a great game

Is it Mark Kolzsvary time? 

What did Brez see in this guy? Isn’t the backup to the backup usually more defensive minded?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What did Brez see in this guy? Isn’t the backup to the backup usually more defensive minded?

Which guy? Sabol? 

Young athletic guy who has shown a lot of pop, but is probably better suited for LF/1B IMO. Maybe they thought they could figure something out by coaching him? IDK.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We are 8-9 out of the gate and lost to some bad team, so the sky is falling, ax the manager, trade or demote our best two 2024 players and we will surely win.

Geeeeesh!

Geeeeesh? The geeeeesh part should be about why have the Red Sox played so bad, and not geeeeesh why are some complaining about it. Batters striking out in big numbers, errors galore by everyone, and leaving runners on base when they do hit are all carryovers from previous years, and the ONLY thing that is going to stop the complaining is to play better winning baseball something that Cora hasn’t been able to get the Red Sox to do going on year 4 now, so that’s what the geeeeesh should be all about IMO.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Which guy? Sabol? 

Young athletic guy who has shown a lot of pop, but is probably better suited for LF/1B IMO. Maybe they thought they could figure something out by coaching him? IDK.

Yes Sabol. I know at one point steals were 14-14 against him at Woo.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

I think its ok to shift the lineup. Cora did the right thing by moving down Casas. He can come back up as soon as his hitting heats up.

I just think Anthony belongs on the varsity team.

I agree.

I think Cora has more patience (or loyalty) to his starters than some of us do.

Maybe he does not want to put more pressure on Campbell by moving him up, and BTW- last 8 games: KC is at .510.

[jdc69]

Was watching a clip of "The Sport Hub" and they're suggesting analytics is too much of a factor with the Red Sox. So much so that one of them told Jim Rice to stop talking with a prospect he was giving advice to. We obviously benefited, probably the most, from analytics but now I think it's gone too far. For one thing it almost makes players merely the body for the analyzers who are the mind. I think this could have a detrimental effect on the players not relying on themselves enough, making them second guess themselves too much. Just this idea of some unknown group of people on computers, making decisions or the team, doesn't sit right with me. 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What did Brez see in this guy? Isn’t the backup to the backup usually more defensive minded?

Maybe he felt he could back up 1B, too, but Romy looks like a nice platoon guy for Casas (for now, anyway.)

I think Grandal will take Sabol's place on the 40 and 26, soon. Sabol will be DFA'd.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes Sabol. I know at one point steals were 14-14 against him at Woo.

I wonder if it's a problem in the Sox org of pitchers not holding runners on.

Last year, Sabol was 22 for 42 in throwing guys out.