Article: Could the Red Sox Have the Best Lineup in the American League?

[Davy Andrews]

As prediction season begins in earnest, an MLB.com article raises the possibility that the Red Sox have the best lineup in baseball. Let's dig in and find out.

On Tuesday, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince published an article breaking down what he considered the top 10 lineups in baseball. Rankings like these are a staple of preseason coverage. They’re fun and they give people something to talk – or more accurately, to shout – about. Castrovince is well aware that sharing his opinions means opening himself up to criticism, leading off his article, “It’s been a minute since strangers have yelled at me on the internet, so it must be time to post my top 10 lineups for 2025!” To be clear, our goal today is not to roast Castrovince, both because we’re not that kind of website and because, in large part, there’s not too much to quibble with. He starts with the Dodgers, Mets, and Braves, and while you could make a pretty strong argument that the Braves deserve the number two spot, that's clearly the cream of the league. He ranks the Phillies fourth, which also seems like an extremely reasonable spot for them, but that also means that his top four consists entirely of National League teams.

Our topic today comes next, and here’s how Castrovince introduced it: “WARNING! I’m about to list three AL East teams in a certain order. Quite frankly, you can shuffle them in any order for all I care. The point is all three belong somewhere right around here, but putting down a ‘tie’ is lame and doesn’t read as well as an actual 1-10 list, so here we are. Flame away.”

Castrovince put the Red Sox, Orioles, and Yankees, at four, five, and six, in that order. As you may have noticed, that means he thinks the Red Sox have the best lineup in the American League – though once again, he thinks they’re pretty much tied with the Yankees and Orioles for that honor. That idea certainly caught the Talk Sox Slack channel by surprise. Nicolas Cage GIFs were exchanged. Lots of them. I wanted to dig a little deeper. Is it possible that the Red Sox have the best lineup in the AL? Last year, the team’s 104 wRC+ was tied for fifth with the Mariners. What have they done to get better? Well, they added Alex Bregman, but they also lost Tyler O’Neill, who was their second-best hitter and even put up a better 2024 season than Bregman. That's not necessarily a slam dunk.

What about the other teams at the top? Have they gotten worse? The Yankees lost Juan Soto and essentially replaced him with Cody Bellinger, which represents a very steep drop-off. However, they also replaced Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo with Jasson Dominguez and Paul Goldschmidt, and they’ll get a full season of Jazz Chisholm Jr. That should help offset the huge loss of Soto to some degree. The Orioles replaced Anthony Santander with O’Neill, but the main change in their lineup should just be from Adley Rutschman bouncing back to full health and young stars like Gunnar Henderson , Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday – my God, this list is long – continuing to improve. It doesn't necessarily seem like either team took a big step back to make room for the Red Sox. Let’s take a look at the lineups Castrovince laid out.

Red Sox	Orioles	Yankees
1. Jarren Duran, LF	1. Gunnar Henderson, SS	1. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B
2. Rafael Devers, 3B	2. Jordan Westburg, 3B	2. Aaron Judge, RF
3. Alex Bregman, 2B	3. Adley Rutschman, C	3. Cody Bellinger, CF
4. Triston Casas, 1B	4. Colton Cowser, RF	4. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
5. Trevor Story, SS	5. Tyler O’Neill, LF	5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
6. Masataka Yoshida, DH	6. Ryan O’Hearn, DH	6. Austin Wells, C
7. Connor Wong, C	7. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B	7. Jasson Domínguez, LF
8. Wilyer Abreu, RF	8. Jackson Holliday, 2B	8. Anthony Volpe, SS
9. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF	9. Cedric Mullins, CF	9. Oswaldo Cabrera, 3B

First of all, I love this Red Sox lineup – I absolutely think it’s their best option – but at this point, it’s clear that we won’t see it regularly, if at all. Bregman has not played second base at all during spring training. He’s going to play third. And with Kristian Campbell getting more and more time in the outfield, second base is pretty clearly a competition between Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton at this point. I think Hamilton is an interesting player, but I think that the lineup Castrovince runs with here is the best option. Yes, Devers hurts you on defense, but playing him there keeps all the big bats in the lineup, and that matters more.

In the table below, I went spot by spot to compare the three lineups. I just did a quick gut-check ranking, so yours may differ slightly, but the color-coding tells the story. The Red Sox are much stronger at the top and weaker at the bottom. The Orioles are much deeper throughout, while the mighty Aaron Judge does a whole lot of heavy lifting for the Yankees.

First	Second	Third
Henderson	Duran	Chisholm
Judge	Devers	Westburg
Bregman	Rutschman	Bellinger
Casas	Cowser	Stanton
O'Neill	Goldschmidt	Story
O'Hearn	Yoshida	Wells
Mountcastle	Dominguez	Wong
Holliday	Abreu	Volpe
Mullins	Cabrera	Rafaela

Even if we grant Castrovince this ideal lineup, if I’m being totally honest, I think he’s overrating the Red Sox slightly. I could be wrong, but I just don’t expect to get much offensively from Ceddanne Rafaela, Connor Wong, or Trevor Story. Maybe Story has a bounce-back season, but I just don’t think you can expect it from him at this point. Devers and Masataka Yoshida are both recovering from shoulder injuries and might not be fully themselves, at least at the start of the season. I don’t think it’s fair to expect Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu to repeat what they did last season, and Abreu is starting in a hole thanks to the illness that sapped his strength and cost him weeks of spring training. He’ll also need a platoon partner, which means expecting Rob Refsnyder to maintain his torrid pace from 2024. I do expect big things from Triston Casas, but he’s now suffered enough injuries that I worry about his ability to stay in the lineup too.

I know that sounds extremely pessimistic. I’ve just expressed concern about everyone in the lineup but Bregman. However, I really do think this is a good lineup. Every team has players who overperform and underperform, so not all of my concerns will become reality. Moreover, the cavalry is coming. In Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer, the Red Sox have three of the best prospects in baseball ready to jump in for anyone who underperforms or gets injured – except for Wong; the team is pretty much stuck when it comes to the catcher position. This is a good lineup and the Big Three have the potential to make it really deep, but it’s also one with a lot of questions.

Before I go, I pulled some numbers from FanGraphs to see what the projection systems see as the best offenses in baseballI pulled every depth chart projection from ZiPS and Steamer, then combined each team’s numbers to see which offenses are supposed to be the best. To be clear, this particular exercise seeks to answer a slightly different question. This isn’t about the best lineup, but about which team is projected to hit the best as a whole over the course of the season. The numbers in the table are each team’s total weighted runs created, which essentially means how many runs they would be expected to score while stripping away things like park factors.

Rank	Team	ZiPS		Rank	Team	Steamer
1	LAD	871		1	LAD	849
2	ATL	867		2	ATL	848
3	NYM	835		3	NYM	816
4	BAL	823		4	ARI	805
5	PHI	823		5	PHI	797
6	BOS	818		6	HOU	797
7	NYY	817		7	NYY	795
8	TEX	806		8	BAL	795
9	CIN	805		9	BOS	792
10	HOU	798		10	TEX	790

ZiPS sees the Orioles with the best offense in the AL and the Red Sox just one spot (and one run) ahead of the Yankees in sixth place. Steamer has the Red Sox all the way down at ninth, but once again, all three teams are grouped together, and they’re all within three runs of each other. Essentially, both projection systems are saying what Castrovince did: these offenses are extremely similar in terms of overall quality. Interestingly, even after losing Bregman and Kyle Tucker, Steamer sees the Astros as the best offense in the AL. So do the Red Sox have the best lineup (or the best offense) in the AL? They’ve at least got a shot at the crown, but it’s a whole lot closer than you might realize.

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[mvp 78]

Cute that O'Neilll is listed as first. He's going to have a massive regression, especially in the part and his good luck with health will run out. Story is going to stay healthy for once put up bigger numbers than him this season. 

[Bellhorn04]

I won't get too excited about our offense until I see Devers healthy and hitting.  To me his health is still a question mark. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I won't get too excited about our offense until I see Devers healthy and hitting.  To me his health is still a question mark. 

Devers' status as the Boston Mangler is certainly uncertain right now. 

Why doesn't anyone covering camp report about this? No one can rationally make any predictions about the Red Sox until they see Raffy in action.

[Malcolm White]

I'm stupid, and maybe stuck in the past, but why hit a slow power hitter (Devers) #2 when he would have more RBI chances hitting lower?  Grissom or Hamilton behind Duran pressures the defense, breaks up the lefties, and creates a Devers-Bregman-Casas 3-4-5 that should do serious damage.

[Malcolm White]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Cute that O'Neilll is listed as first. He's going to have a massive regression, especially in the part and his good luck with health will run out. Story is going to stay healthy for once put up bigger numbers than him this season. 

It would be a fun bet to see who gets more ABs, Story or O'Neill.  Not sure the O's did their homework on how much he was babied last year.

[Davy Andrews]

52 minutes ago, Malcolm White said:

I'm stupid, and maybe stuck in the past, but why hit a slow power hitter (Devers) #2 when he would have more RBI chances hitting lower?  Grissom or Hamilton behind Duran pressures the defense, breaks up the lefties, and creates a Devers-Bregman-Casas 3-4-5 that should do serious damage.

You don't have to be either of those things to prefer seeing your best hitter in the three spot. It's true that the math says you should put them second, but the math also says it's not all that important.

That said, if you really want the old-school approach, wouldn't you want Bregman batting second? He's not just on the team at putting the ball in play, but one of the best in all of baseball.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, Malcolm White said:

I'm stupid, and maybe stuck in the past, but why hit a slow power hitter (Devers) #2 when he would have more RBI chances hitting lower?  Grissom or Hamilton behind Duran pressures the defense, breaks up the lefties, and creates a Devers-Bregman-Casas 3-4-5 that should do serious damage.

The theory (I don't feel like binging the articles) is that the #3 hitter comes up the most amount of times with 2 outs and no runner on than any other person in the order making it a less valuable position. You should want your best hitters hitting 1, 2, 4 and 5 I believe. 2 will also have more PA's in the year than the #4 hitter. If we believe Duran will be right in front of Devers at 1 and have a decent OBP, having Devers right after him isn't a bad idea. I'd want my best hitters getting as many PA's in the season as possible. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Davy Andrews said:

You don't have to be either of those things to prefer seeing your best hitter in the three spot. It's true that the math says you should put them second, but the math also says it's not all that important.

That said, if you really want the old-school approach, wouldn't you want Bregman batting second? He's not just on the team at putting the ball in play, but one of the best in all of baseball.

If Bregman and Devers were swapped in the order it wouldn't bother me in the least. Maybe they think Devers provides better protection to Duran? IDK.

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The theory (I don't feel like binging the articles) is that the #3 hitter comes up the most amount of times with 2 outs and no runner on than any other person in the order making it a less valuable position. You should want your best hitters hitting 1, 2, 4 and 5 I believe. 2 will also have more PA's in the year than the #4 hitter. If we believe Duran will be right in front of Devers at 1 and have a decent OBP, having Devers right after him isn't a bad idea. I'd want my best hitters getting as many PA's in the season as possible. 

We need Kimmi here.

I believe the idea of having your "best" hitter up second is that you benefit from a combo package of their higher PA's, RBI opportunities and their OBP setting up the hitters behind them. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bregman would make an ideal #2 batter, because not only does he have pull power, but if he falls behind in the count, he's also adept at making contact and moving baserunners for the big boys to drive in.

The problem with the Red Sox' "best" line-up is that Duran, Devers and Casas are all lefties and all big whiffers -- the kind of trio that sidewinding southpaw specialists salivate just thinking about...

... that's why it is almost mandatory for Cora to break them up by batting Bregman in between them.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing I always chuckle at when watching my DVD's of the 2004 postseason is Tim McCarver making a big deal of my man Bellhorn being an unlikely choice as a #2 hitter. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We need Kimmi here.

I believe the idea of having your "best" hitter up second is that you benefit from a combo package of their higher PA's, RBI opportunities and their OBP setting up the hitters behind them. 

Sorry, too many ding-a-lings ran her off! 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

One thing I always chuckle at when watching my DVD's of the 2004 postseason is Tim McCarver making a big deal of my man Bellhorn being an unlikely choice as a #2 hitter. 

McCarver yelling "that ball wasn't even close" when Clemens throws up and in on Manny the previous season. Those knuckleheads were so anti-Red Sox that I'm glad they had front row seats to see the Sox beat their Cards in the WS. 

[moonslav59]

I would flip the Abreu-Ref platoon for Wong in the 7 slot, or maybe even bat them 6th and push Yoshida down to 7, but the line-up looks solid, to me. I do NOT want Bregman at 2B, though

Another alternative might be:

1. L Duran CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers DH

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida- R Refsnyder LF

7. L Abreu -R Rafaela RF

8. R  Campbell 2B (or a L DHam- R Romy platoon to start the season)

9. R Wong C

 

[moonslav59]

There is something to be said to have 2 of your highest OBP guys up 1-2 and your big RBI guy up 4th.

It's hard to pinpoint who our best OBP guys are, since none have been consistently great.

2022-2024

.367 Refsnyder

.357 Casas

.354 Devers

.349 Bregman

.343 Yoshida

.333 Duran & Abreu

2024 only

.359 Ref

.354 Devers

.349 Yoshida

.342 Duran

.333 Wong

.322 Abreu

.315 Bregman

I think the idea of Duran at #1 makes a ton of sense, and his 2024 OBP supports the idea. The next best OBP guys are Refsnyder (vs LHPs only) Devers, Casas or Bregman, although Bregman slipped to .315 in '24.

I like Devers as our RBI guy (4th) but worry that Story behind him is not enough "protection." That being said, my top 5 would be...

1. Duran

2. Bregman

3. Casas

4. Devers

5. Story

One coudl argue a Yoshida (.351 v R) and Refsnyder (.410 v L) should bat 2nd, based on their numbers and splits.

1. Duran

2. Yoshida-Ref

3. Bregman

4. Devers

5. Casas

6. Story

This gives Devers better protection and lengthens the line-up.

 

[harmony]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox 12th in the American League (20th overall) in projected position player WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox 12th in the American League (20th overall) in projected position player WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

Yes, because of their poor fielding. When we are discussing LINEUP, it is purely offensive potential and ignores defense.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, because of their poor fielding. When we are discussing LINEUP, it is purely offensive potential and ignores defense.

The Red Sox have added Gold Glove winner Alex Bregman to a lineup that last year ranked fourth in the American League (sixth overall) in Defensive Runs Saved, according to The Fielding Bible:

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox have added Gold Glove winner Alex Bregman to a lineup that last year ranked fourth in the American League (sixth overall) in Defensive Runs Saved, according to The Fielding Bible:

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

And again, when you dig into the PROJECTIONS, you see that Wilyer had higher DRS last season than Riley Greene (DET first team I looked at), but is projected to have half the Fld in '25... The projection for Duran also shows a dramatic defensive regression for Jarren Duran. 

If you are going to talk about the PROJECTIONS that you posted and why the Sox are ranked low, talking about the '24 numbers is kind of useless unless you're disregarding your earlier post. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And again, when you dig into the PROJECTIONS, you see that Wilyer had higher DRS last season than Riley Greene (DET first team I looked at), but is projected to have half the Fld in '25... The projection for Duran also shows a dramatic defensive regression for Jarren Duran. 

If you are going to talk about the PROJECTIONS that you posted and why the Sox are ranked low, talking about the '24 numbers is kind of useless unless you're disregarding your earlier post. 

I think Duran might regress a little with the bat, but his defense is legit. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think Duran might regress a little with the bat, but his defense is legit. 

Not according the FanGraphs and the projections that harmony keeps posting without regard for what they actually mean!

[harmony]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not according the FanGraphs and the projections that harmony keeps posting without regard for what they actually mean!

Readers are free to interpret (or ignore) the rankings provided by FanGraphs and The Fielding Bible.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Readers are free to interpret (or ignore) the rankings provided by FanGraphs and The Fielding Bible.

What we are talking about are your projections which include the Sox doing worse defensively. Then you follow up with a post that says "but last year's DRS blah blah blah" which is most certainly NOT the current year projections from your initial post. Those are two completely different topics IMO. I believe in ranking defense after it happens. The projections are just for fun.

[dgalehouse]

It's basically last year's lineup with Bregman added. No matter how you configure the batting order, it should be good enough to make the post season if the bullpen doesn't blow so many leads.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

It's basically last year's lineup with Bregman added. No matter how you configure the batting order, it should be good enough to make the post season if the bullpen doesn't blow so many leads.

Basically minus O’Neil. I know he didn’t have many RBI for the HR he hit, but I don’t know how much more production Bregman is going to give. I’m not as impressed by Bergman’s Fenway numbers as most, because it was against the Red Sox pitching staff. 

[notin]

8 hours ago, Malcolm White said:

I'm stupid, and maybe stuck in the past, but why hit a slow power hitter (Devers) #2 when he would have more RBI chances hitting lower?  Grissom or Hamilton behind Duran pressures the defense, breaks up the lefties, and creates a Devers-Bregman-Casas 3-4-5 that should do serious damage.

Moving Devers up from third to second in the lineup gets roughly 18 more PA.  In theory, more PA from Devers is a good thing…

[jad]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Cute that O'Neilll is listed as first. He's going to have a massive regression, especially in the part and his good luck with health will run out. Story is going to stay healthy for once put up bigger numbers than him this season. 

Story has played 100 games only once in the past 5 years.  I'm taking the unders.

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, jad said:

Story has played 100 games only once in the past 5 years.  I'm taking the unders.

Regardless of hjis playing time, these eight wRC+ projections for Trevor Story range from 81 to 93:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

It's basically last year's lineup with Bregman added. No matter how you configure the batting order, it should be good enough to make the post season if the bullpen doesn't blow so many leads.

People keep pointing to the loss of O'Neall but neglect to mention others lost:

.847 O'Neall (473 PAs)

.706 D Smith (278)

.633 E Valdez (223) Just Smith + Valdez= more PAs than O'Neill.

.575 McGuire (158), .623 Jansen (96), .410 Dalbec (93), .455 Cooper (75). .451 Reyes (64), .584 Westbrook (48) & Gasper .217 (23) All these guys total more PAs than O'Neal.

We are losing almost 1500 PAs from players no longer on the Sox. Who gets those PAs is key. You gotta figure Narvaez might get 200-250, and he may hit as badly as McGuire & Jansen, combined. Casas could get 400 more. Bregman might get 600. That leaves 250 or so for Story, the kids or maybe more from DHam, Romy, Yoshi or others.

According to fangraphs, the Sox offense ranked in the AL:

5th in Off fWAR at 30.7 (11th on D at -40.5)

5th in wRC+ at 104

T3rd in wOBA at .321

3rd in OPS at .741

I think our offense improved, while NYY's got worse. HOU's got worse. Did BAL get better? They did lose Santander, but all we hear is that they added O'Neall.