Article: Who’s the Red Sox Third Baseman? It's Messy

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox want Skenes, Rafaela is NOT the centerpiece.  In fact, his contract might make him a detrimental inclusion.  The starting offer for Skenes is both Campbell AND Anthony, and maybe more.

A reasonable trade proposal for Skenes would be...

a contradiction in terms.

[harmony]

23 hours ago, notin said:

Two?

The Sox have THREE top ten prospects.  

Marcelo Mayer has fallen off most Top 10 prospect lists after making brief appearances there two years ago:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mayer-000mar

Keith Law at The Athletic lists Mayer as the No, 28 prospect:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/

Mayer ultimately may have a productive MLB career but his stock apparently has fallen.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

Marcelo Mayer has fallen off most Top 10 prospect lists after making brief appearances there two years ago:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mayer-000mar

Keith Law at The Athletic lists Mayer as the No, 28 prospect:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/

Mayer ultimately may have a productive MLB career but his stock apparently has fallen.

Mainly due to the injuries I would think.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Mainly due to the injuries I would think.

His last two years has ended early being shut down, because of those injuries. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The guy I was thinking of is Tony Phillips, who played all over the diamond for a career bWAR of 50.9. Listed as a second baseman because that's the position he played the most, Phillips also led the AL in range factor as a left fielder one year, and as a third baseman in another.

Never an All-Star, yet in his seven-year peak (1990-96) averaged 5.3 WAR over 162 games. Baseball Reference's scale considers 5+ WAR as "All-Star Quality." 

In 18 seasons, Phillips had a career Slugging % of .389, identical to Rafaela's. But Phillips, who averaged 97 runs scored, walked to first on BB about as frequently as Ceddanne walked back to the dugout after whiffing in '24... 

Phillips is an excellent example.  His offensive similarities include players like Terry Pendleton, Jose Offerman and Carney Langford.  But his 51 bWAR dwarfs all but Lansford, where his margin was a mere 10 bWAR better (in a couple extra years).   One reason might be the multiple positions, with Pendleton (28 bWAR) and Lansfoed (40 bWAR) largely just playing 3b, and Offerman (17 bWAR) playing multiple position but playing them weakly…

[notin]

57 minutes ago, harmony said:

Marcelo Mayer has fallen off most Top 10 prospect lists after making brief appearances there two years ago:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mayer-000mar

Keith Law at The Athletic lists Mayer as the No, 28 prospect:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/

Mayer ultimately may have a productive MLB career but his stock apparently has fallen.

MLB.com has him at 12.  Not top 10, but right there on the fringe...

 

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/top100/

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Why need a trade?

The following position players can simply be demoted to Worcester: Yoshida, Rafaela, Abreu, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Grissom, Casas.  Maybe someone else.  Wong and Narvaez both can, for example, but it’s irrelevant in this discussion.

If the Sox didn’t have this bizarre commitment to Rafaela, he’s the obvious choice, at least for the bench…

Where did I say we "need a trade?"

Our team still has some real need areas. I've always looked to try and improve the team by trading from area's of strength and or excess to upgrade the areas of need.

Could it backfire? Sure. We could trade DHam and then watch Campbell get hurt or severely disappoint at 2B, and wish we still had him. He could go on to do better than that stretch in 2024. Having a strong and deep bench is a true value, but to me, we need a better catcher more than 4 second basemen (Campbell, DHam, Romy & Grissom.) We need a closer more than we need 4 second basemen and 7 OF'ers (Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Campbell, Refsnyder and Yoshida) or so many AAA RP'ers with promise and trade value.

It's not easy finding a trade partner, at this point in the year, and the idea of a 3 for 1 deal is even harder to make happen, unless 2-3 of the players are non 40 man roster add-ons, but if these kids turn out like we hope, we can afford to trade all of these 5 guys: Wong, DHam, Abreu, Kelly and Mata for a top 10 catcher- maybe top 2-4 or a closer. I'm not saying I'm for any trade like mentioned, but the framework looks doable.

I realize Kelly, Mata and the like don't add much value, so maybe a Wink or Guerrero might be needed to get the type of catcher or closer I want, but I think we need another player or two: namely a real catcher and or a real closer.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I too have expressed reservations about Little Raf's O, but you also have the fact he had a 2.8 bWAR in his rookie season, 4th best for Sox position players.  A little early to give up on him?

It's not "giving up" on a guy, if you trade him for value, and hopefully higher value, especially if combined with other players with value, too.

We did not "give up on HRam." We got Beckett for him.

We did not give up on Armas & Pavano: we got Pedro for them.

We did not give up on the group of players traded for Schilling, Sale and other greats. We traded player we valued highly for a player we valued even higher or needed more.

[moonslav59]

When a player gets injured as much as Mayer, their value drops, but it does not mean his skill levels drop, too.

Will Mayer ever have a full and healthy season? If he does, he could easily jump back to top 10 or top 5 or 6.

That's a big "if." Maybe not Trevor Story "IF." but still....

I think he still has enormous trade value, but with Story's issues, we can't afford to trade him, at least until Arias is closer to ML ready. (Maybe Romero makes it possible by having a monster 2025 season.)

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

When a player gets injured as much as Mayer, their value drops, but it does not mean his skill levels drop, too.

Will Mayer ever have a full and healthy season? If he does, he could easily jump back to top 10 or top 5 or 6.

That's a big "if." Maybe not Trevor Story "IF." but still....

I think he still has enormous trade value, but with Story's issues, we can't afford to trade him, at least until Arias is closer to ML ready. (Maybe Romero makes it possible by having a monster 2025 season.)

I think the idea might be those skills are not worth much on the IL…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I think the idea might be those skills are not worth much on the IL…

Yes, that's another way of putting it. He has not been like Story, who in his brief moments of being healthy, has not been able to hit, very well. Now, Story's bat skills are in question. 

Mayer has not reached that point.

This also begs the question, why would one full and healthy season boost his ranking and value, so much? Would that prove he will stay healthy, going forward?

[harmony]

Injuries aside, Marcelo Mayer may be a hard one to project;

Last year Mayer rode a .367 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 142 in 335 plate appearances at Double A Portland.

In 2023 Mayer endured a .277 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 99 in 354 plate appearances across High A and Double A.

FanGraphs' eight MLB projection systems have Mayer with a 2025 wRC+ between 83 and 90 in limited plate appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#dashboard

The ZiPS three-year projections have Mayer with 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4 WAR in 81, 85 and 89 games over his age 22, 23 and 24 seasons in 2025, 2026 and 2027:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#zips-3-year-projections

In 25 MLB drafts this century, only five overall No, 4 draft picks have accumulated more than 5 bWAR so far in their careers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how much stock should be put into projections for prospects who have never played a single game in MLB.

I'm also not sure how much stock should be put into how many #4 picks have done well or not. Many had Mayer as the #1 or #2, for what that means.

To me, I see Mayer as ML ready on D. Only his health could add or subtract from that value. He may not be great on D, but he seems like he'll be a sure plus on D. His success in AA in '24, with his bat, is not a big sample size, and was at AA not AAA, so that is the area with the biggest questions, IMO. OBP is always the hardest part to project into MLB. We've seen so many players with .340-.370 OBP in the minors struggle to stay over .300 or approach .325.

To me, if Mayer is 100% healthy, he may just need a few weeks to find his groove, after missing the last couple months of 2024 (just as he was promoted to AAA.) He may be MLB ready by mid April, if all goes well.

If he is raking, and Story is looking good, we could have a tough question to answer, even with Bregman at 3B: who plays SS and who plays 2B? (Where does Campbell play, if Story or Mayer is at 2B?)

[notin]

23 minutes ago, harmony said:

Injuries aside, Marcelo Mayer may be a hard one to project;

Last year Mayer rode a .367 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 142 in 335 plate appearances at Double A Portland.

In 2023 Mayer endured a .277 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 99 in 354 plate appearances across High A and Double A.

FanGraphs' eight MLB projection systems have Mayer with a 2025 wRC+ between 83 and 90 in limited plate appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#dashboard

The ZiPS three-year projections have Mayer with 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4 WAR in 81, 85 and 89 games over his age 22, 23 and 24 seasons in 2025, 2026 and 2027:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#zips-3-year-projections

In 25 MLB drafts this century, only five overall No, 4 draft picks have accumulated more than 5 bWAR so far in their careers:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0

 

 

So Wyatt Langford is a bust?

[harmony]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So Wyatt Langford is a bust?

Certainly not ... and Marcelo Mayer might not be.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, harmony said:

Certainly not ... and Marcelo Mayer might not be.

Certainly, Mayer may not reach expectations, but other than injuries, he shows no signs of being a bust, and he's played in over 270 games, so far.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not "giving up" on a guy, if you trade him for value, and hopefully higher value, especially if combined with other players with value, too.

We did not "give up on HRam." We got Beckett for him.

We did not give up on Armas & Pavano: we got Pedro for them.

We did not give up on the group of players traded for Schilling, Sale and other greats. We traded player we valued highly for a player we valued even higher or needed more.

I was actually responding to notin's comments about benching Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

Career in minors:

Campbell: .327  21  82 (.986 OPS) in 601 PAs (per 650: .327 23  90)

Anthony: .284  32 142 (.871) in 1114 PAs (per 650: .284 18 80)

Mayer: .307 37 162 (.828) in 1218 PAs (per 650: .307  20  90)

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I was actually responding to notin's comments about benching Rafaela.

OK, sorry. I do think Rafaela as a super-duper utility man could still get 450-550 PAs, even without major injuries. He can play OF, 2B, SS and by moving others to 3B or 1B can fill in their slots, if a corner IF'er goes down.

He's getting paid a lot for a bench role, but getting that many PAs, not to mention late inning defensive play or even PR'er duties, he can still earn his keep. The higher pay seasons are still a few years away, too. He could earn his way back to a starter role by then, or we could trade a starter to make room for him, if he seems deserving, by then.

[Hitch]

“These things tend to have a way of working themselves out,” Breslow said, per MassLive's Sean McAdam. “This is not the first situation where a player’s been outspoken about something that they take a lot of pride in. And that’s OK. Like I said, they tend to work themselves out.”

 

Bres on Devers. He starts the season with shoulder issues it'll be sooner than later.

[dgalehouse]

I think the Sox should make a decision as to who's on third.  Dawdling over it just looks like weak, indecisive management. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, notin said:

If the Sox want Skenes, Rafaela is NOT the centerpiece.  In fact, his contract might make him a detrimental inclusion.  The starting offer for Skenes is both Campbell AND Anthony, and maybe more.  I know you’re trying to explain his usefulness, but this can be done with less extreme examples.  Once you dive into unrealistic evidence, I’m not sure what your point is…

I have said many times Rafaela is unlikely to be traded because of his contract -- including the post you skimmed over. Unlike all the Sox' other hot prospects, Ceddanne is no longer making minimum wage AND he is locked up longterm... so if he turns out to be a bust, the new team's budget is cracked. Big risk.

The only mistake I made is when I typed a Skenes type, I didn't uppercase TYPE, nor elaborate that I meant any other guy with a 60s Western movie mustache dating a gymnast (or even a circus acrobat).

A Skenes type could also include Paul's uncle -- his mother's older brother -- still pitching in his late-40s... only underhand 3 to 12-foot arcs in slow-pitch softball. 

Uncle Fester only has about a decade left of effectiveness, so Rafaela might make a good centerpiece in a trade. If not, at least he could hold up candles on both sides of a centerpiece.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I have said many times Rafaela is unlikely to be traded because of his contract -- including the post you skimmed over. Unlike all the Sox' other hot prospects, Ceddanne is no longer making minimum wage AND he is locked up longterm... so if he turns out to be a bust, the new team's budget is cracked. Big risk.

The only mistake I made is when I typed a Skenes type, I didn't uppercase TYPE, nor elaborate that I meant any other guy with a 60s Western movie mustache dating a gymnast (or even a circus acrobat).

A Skenes type could also include Paul's uncle -- his mother's older brother -- still pitching in his late-40s... only underhand 3 to 12-foot arcs in slow-pitch softball. 

Uncle Fester only has about a decade left of effectiveness, so Rafaela might make a good centerpiece in a trade. If not, at least he could hold up candles on both sides of a centerpiece.

When the talk of the Arenado and Castillo trades were being floated, I mentioned Rafaela as a piece to the trades as a way of bring the cost to a more reasonable level, while giving the other team a players who is not really a "salary dump," at this point, anyway.

I think there are some teams that do not view Rafaela as an overpay, despite BTV having him at -6. Would you trade Giolito, Rafaela and Mullins for Luis Castillo? Would SEA?

[Larry Cook]

Devers shoulders are barking. The decision to be a DH full time is most likely being made by Devers body 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Devers shoulders are barking. The decision to be a DH full time is most likely being made by Devers body 

Makes me wonder if he needed surgery last August and maybe he'd be okay by now.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When the talk of the Arenado and Castillo trades were being floated, I mentioned Rafaela as a piece to the trades as a way of bring the cost to a more reasonable level, while giving the other team a players who is not really a "salary dump," at this point, anyway.

I think there are some teams that do not view Rafaela as an overpay, despite BTV having him at -6. Would you trade Giolito, Rafaela and Mullins for Luis Castillo? Would SEA?

Seattle would not.

The Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo (and have been unlikely to trade the veteran right-hander all offseason).

Baseball Trade Values assigns Hayden Mullins a surplus value of only $2.1 million while assigning Lucas Giolito and Ceddanne Rafaela negative trade values of $7.1 million and $6 million, respectively. The proposed Red Sox package has a net BTV value of a negative $11 million, or $18.1 million shy of Castillo's surplus $7.1 million value assigned at BTV.

The Mariners probably place an even higher value on Castillo, who is expected to again be a mainstay in the productive Seattle rotation.

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Makes me wonder if he needed surgery last August and maybe he'd be okay by now.

Raffy’s L shoulder bothered him all last season. He hurt his R shoulder diving for a ball during the season. He was shut down at the end of last season, and the Red Sox came out, and said he didn’t need surgery. Was there any diagnosis given last year, or what the problem is this year?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, harmony said:

Seattle would not.

The Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo (and have been unlikely to trade the veteran right-hander all offseason).

Baseball Trade Values assigns Hayden Mullins a surplus value of only $2.1 million while assigning Lucas Giolito and Ceddanne Rafaela negative trade values of $7.1 million and $6 million, respectively. The proposed Red Sox package has a net BTV value of a negative $11 million, or $18.1 million shy of Castillo's surplus $7.1 million value assigned at BTV.

The Mariners probably place an even higher value on Castillo, who is expected to again be a mainstay in the productive Seattle rotation.

Boston would not either (not if I'm CBO). Acquiring a good pitcher in his 30s who is owed around $100 million would only be worth it to the Sox if they were a true contender for the World Series, and that is highly unlikely for a club with no reliable bullpen and question marks at every infield position (the only sure thing is Bregman somewhere).

Rafaela is a not a refined veteran like Castillo, but even if he doesn't maximize his five-tool potential could still give Boston around 3 WAR per year for the next eight seasons (Ceddanne had 2.8 WAR in '24 and... never walked!).

Would Castillo contribute commensurate value?

[notin]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I was actually responding to notin's comments about benching Rafaela.

I’d do it to get Anthony in the lineup.  Maybe limit Rafaela to a super utility / RHH platoon in RF.  Demote Romy to Worcester…

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, harmony said:

Injuries aside, Marcelo Mayer may be a hard one to project;

Last year Mayer rode a .367 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 142 in 335 plate appearances at Double A Portland.

In 2023 Mayer endured a .277 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 99 in 354 plate appearances across High A and Double A.

He stupidly played through a shoulder injury in '23 and saw his numbers plummet. He should have missed more time, but didn't know when to tell the trainers that he was hurting.