Article: The Red Sox Don’t Need to Sign Alex Bregman

[Alex Mayes]

Alex Bregman would seem to solve some issues for the Red Sox, but do they actually need him? 

At this point, the name most often connected to the Red Sox on the free agent market is two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman. He’s a Gold Glove third baseman, a position where the Red Sox could use improvement, and he’s willing to move to second base should a team need him there. That sounds great on paper, but do the Red Sox actually need to sign Alex Bregman?

First, let’s look at the rumored preferred contract for Bregman. The prevailing rumor is that he’s seeking a contract of seven years worth at least $200 million. That’s quite a large ask for someone going into their age-31 season. There’s no doubt that Bregman would be worth the first part of that contract if he were able to play his primary position, third base, for that entire span, but as the roster is currently constructed, third base still belongs to Rafael Devers for the foreseeable future. However, the back half of the contract would saddle the Red Sox with an aging star who very likely will fail to live up to expectations, potentially keeping the Red Sox from bringing in other big-name free agents down the line.

Second, we want to look at Bergman’s numbers over the last few seasons. First, in 2024, Bregman ran his highest strikeout rate since 2020, coming in at 13.6%. That’s not an insane strikeout percentage, but the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Even more concerning is his 6.9% walk rate, which is a disastrously big drop-off from the rates he's run every year since 2018. He's still got elite bat-to-ball skills, but he's chasing more, which is a worrisome trend. Bregman has never crushed the ball, but he's succeeded by pulling the ball in the air and running excellent walk and strikeout rates. If he can't do that anymore, then he'll burn up a lot of his margin for error. Moreover, pitchers seem to be less afraid of him, as he just ran one of the highest zone rates of his entire career. If the Red Sox are investing seven years in a player, that player needs to be trending upwards for the majority of the contract, not downwards.

Last, there’s a decent case to be made for letting Kristian Campbell and Vaughn Grissom compete for the starting second base spot in spring training. Campbell moved through the organization very quickly, but of all the high-level prospects in the system, Campbell seems the most ready to make the jump to the majors. If the Red Sox are serious upgrading their infield defense, there are ways to do it, but Bregman would represent a serious investment with serious risk. Although he brings an impressive amount of hardware and World Series experience with him, the Red Sox would be better served to look elsewhere for a defensive upgrade.  

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[mvp 78]

I'm not a Grissom believer, but I agree with this post. 

[notin]

I believe in giving Grissom a chance, and figure between him, Hamilton and Campbell, the Sox have their solution at 2b…

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not a Grissom believer, but I agree with this post. 

You mean Brez gave a Cy Young winner away for a real suspect?🙈

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that the only potential expensive acquisitions left aren't much use anyway.  The Sox FO has done their job again.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You mean Brez gave a Cy Young winner away for a real suspect?🙈

I was told by someone here that if Sale stuck around another year that he wouldn't have been any good. 🤷‍♀️

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that the only potential expensive acquisitions left aren't much use anyway.  The Sox FO has done their job again.

🧛‍♂️⚰️

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I was told by someone here that if Sale stuck around another year that he wouldn't have been any good. 🤷‍♀️

That would have been probably true. He had to get away from the bad injury juju that has enveloped Boston the past few years. Story has it, Gio got it, and Casas too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That would have been probably true. He had to get away from the bad injury juju that has enveloped Boston the past few years. Story has it, Gio got it, and Casas too.

And the fans and the posters -- don't forget all those demands and expectations they put on Red Sox players, coaches, administrators and owner traitors... every single year.

We'd totally expect Sale to lead us to the postseason, and then get hurt so he couldn't throw a pitch once it started.

[smokedogg1982]

I agree all this does is block Campbell and tell everyone that they are out on Grissom who was trending in the right direction at the end of last season.

[Nick]

I am astonished that semi-proclamation of going all-in or at least more so than the previous winter turned out to be THIS. 

Maybe Bres has put a price tag of "$40M spend" on the acquisition of Croshet.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that the only potential expensive acquisitions left aren't much use anyway.  The Sox FO has done their job again.

The Sox couldn’t use Jack Flaherty? Or Anthony Santander?  Or even Pete Alonso and his RHH bat?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox couldn’t use Jack Flaherty? Or Anthony Santander?  Or even Pete Alonso and his RHH bat?

Who is Flaherty kicking out of the rotation? How long is that contract with his bad back? 

Where is Alonso going if 1B/DH already have fulltime players? DFA'ing Masa?

 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who is Flaherty kicking out of the rotation? How long is that contract with his bad back? 

Where is Alonso going if 1B/DH already have fulltime players? DFA'ing Masa?

 

The Sox could DFA Yoshida.  Or demote him.  Both moves are legal. I also would have accepted “trading Casas” here.

As for Flaherty, no idea.  How long is he being offered now?  And I’m shocked you don’t think Flaherty can push Bello to the bullpen.

Does this mean you’re on board with Santander?

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox could DFA Yoshida.  Or demote him.  Both moves are legal. I also would have accepted “trading Casas” here.

As for Flaherty, no idea.  How long is he being offered now?  And I’m shocked you don’t think Flaherty can push Bello to the bullpen.

Does this mean you’re on board with Santander?

If they DFA Yoshida, I think it takes them out of the Japan market for several years. They need to be careful in how they treat him. 

I would have Flaherty above Bello, I'm not sure the Sox would.

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If they DFA Yoshida, I think it takes them out of the Japan market for several years. They need to be careful in how they treat him. 

I would have Flaherty above Bello, I'm not sure the Sox would.

Is that really true?  The Sox have a decent history with Japanese players, and I’m not sure any team has ever removed themselves from the Japanese market by DFAing one.  Did DFAing Castillo remove them from the Cuban market? (Hint: no.) Did DFAing and releasing Sandoval take them out of the Dominican market?

 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they DFA Yoshida, I think it takes them out of the Japan market for several years. They need to be careful in how they treat him. 

I would have Flaherty above Bello, I'm not sure the Sox would.

The Sox could still sign Santander, put him in LF, move Duran to CF, and platoon Abreu/Rafaela in RF.

They likely won’t, but they could.  And it’s probably a better move than signing Bregman for 2b on multiple fronts…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox could still sign Santander, put him in LF, move Duran to CF, and platoon Abreu/Rafaela in RF.

They likely won’t, but they could.  And it’s probably a better move than signing Bregman for 2b on multiple fronts…

Rafaela could be the Super UTIL guy. He'd be overpaid for that, but he could be that. 

Then Anthony is called up and? He's a pull hitter from both sides. Statcast has him losing 13 HR's last year if he played every game at Fenway. A pull hitter from the left side isn't great IMO. He's also under 800 OPS the past two seasons against LHP. He makes more sense as a DH IF they needed one. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox could still sign Santander, put him in LF, move Duran to CF, and platoon Abreu/Rafaela in RF.

They likely won’t, but they could.  And it’s probably a better move than signing Bregman for 2b on multiple fronts…

Make divided fronts. Once Anthony is ready (which could be now) does a newly-signed -- what, $25 million-dollar man? -- become a platoon DH? Or does Abreu get traded for a middle reliever; I'm assuming that's all Breslow has been offered or he would've made room already for baseball's #1 prospect. 

Don't get me wrong -- we totally need Santander's power in the heart of the order. But subsequent moves have to be made to make it fit... maybe that's what's holding this up.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Make divided fronts. Once Anthony is ready (which could be now) does a newly-signed -- what, $25 million-dollar man? -- become a platoon DH? Or does Abreu get traded for a middle reliever; I'm assuming that's all Breslow has been offered or he would've made room already for baseball's #1 prospect. 

Don't get me wrong -- we totally need Santander's power in the heart of the order. But subsequent moves have to be made to make it fit... maybe that's what's holding this up.

Or what the Red Sox could do is trade MLB.com #3 prospect and Marjory Stoneham Douglas Alum RF Roman Anthony to Baltimore for MLB.com #8 prospect and Marjory Stoneham Douglas Alum 3b Coby Mayo, since Baltimore could use an OF and Boston could upgrade at 3b. 
 

Of course to make this work on BTV, Baltimore has to include Heston Kjerstad plus…

[moonslav59]

While not ideal, we could platoon Yoshida and Ref in LF, play Duran FT in CF and Anthony in RF. Trade Abreu for a catcher or RP'er and have an IF set up like this:

1B: Devers/Casas share with DH.

2B: DHam v R and Campbell v L

3B: Campbell v R and Romy or Grissom v L

SS: Story (or Mayer)

If Grissom does well, he could win the 3B FT job, outright and we go with Campbell at 2B or a DHam-Romy platoon, if Campbell is not on the 40.

This costs the Sox $0M. We could spend on upgrading the pen or Catcher, depending on the Abreu trade.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Or what the Red Sox could do is trade MLB.com #3 prospect and Marjory Stoneham Douglas Alum RF Roman Anthony to Baltimore for MLB.com #8 prospect and Marjory Stoneham Douglas Alum 3b Coby Mayo, since Baltimore could use an OF and Boston could upgrade at 3b. 
 

Of course to make this work on BTV, Baltimore has to include Heston Kjerstad plus…

They're just SUSPECTS, how could it hurt? 

[notin]

If there’s really no more moves:

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Grissom

3b:  Devers

SS: Story

LF: Roman Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu (Rafaela vs LHP)

DH: Yoshida (Refsnyder vs LHP)

BN: Narvaez, Gonzalez.  Hamilton has two options left and heads to Worcester for now. 
 

Of course the Sox have to DFA either Chase Shugart or Chris Murphy (or beat the rush and DFA Justin Wilson) to add Anthony to the 40 man…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

If there’s really no more moves:

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Grissom

3b:  Devers

SS: Story

LF: Roman Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu (Rafaela vs LHP)

DH: Yoshida (Refsnyder vs LHP)

BN: Narvaez, Gonzalez.  Hamilton has two options left and heads to Worcester for now. 
 

Of course the Sox have to DFA either Chase Shugart or Chris Murphy (or beat the rush and DFA Justin Wilson) to add Anthony to the 40 man…

Sandoval 60 day IL.

[mvp 78]

In 2023, Murphy had a 3.70 FIP, third on BOS with 0.9 HR/9, 73rd percentile xERA, 85th percentile av exit velo and 87th percentile hard hit %. Why is he DFA'able? 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sandoval 60 day IL.

Oh ok.  You sure you don’t want DFA Justin Wilson?  Ship is sailing…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

In 2023, Murphy had a 3.70 FIP, third on BOS with 0.9 HR/9, 73rd percentile xERA, 85th percentile av exit velo and 87th percentile hard hit %. Why is he DFA'able? 

Who are your better candidates that I didn’t mention?

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, notin said:

If there’s really no more moves:

C: Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Grissom

3b:  Devers

SS: Story

LF: Roman Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu (Rafaela vs LHP)

DH: Yoshida (Refsnyder vs LHP)

BN: Narvaez, Gonzalez.  Hamilton has two options left and heads to Worcester for now. 
 

Of course the Sox have to DFA either Chase Shugart or Chris Murphy (or beat the rush and DFA Justin Wilson) to add Anthony to the 40 man…

Since you mention a couple platoons, why not one at 2B? DHam is ok vs RHPs and is a great baserunner.He sbetter on D than Grissom, too.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Oh ok.  You sure you don’t want DFA Justin Wilson?  Ship is sailing…

I'm on the Wilson hype train. He'll be as good as two Joelys. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Who are your better candidates that I didn’t mention?

If they are adding a hitter, I'm not DFA'ing a pitcher. I'd 60 man Sandoval for Anthony and DFA Sogard for Campbell.