Article: The Red Sox Don’t Need to Sign Alex Bregman

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

I think the rotation is set, too.  I was responding to a comment that there was no one left in free agency that represented an improvement.  

My comment was meant to ooze sarcasm aimed at our front office.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think there is as much there as you think.

Devers is locked in to one of the 4 spots.  As is Story, although as locks go, he’s not one of those ones you shoot with a gun in a commercial, if you get my drift (and arcane reference).  

Romy and Hamilton are not so much part of the starting four infield spots, either.  They shouldn’t be counted. (And Romy might be a DFA candidate.)

So with two “locks”, that leaves two spots for Bregman, Casas, Mayer, Grissom, and Campbell.  
 

Casas has refused an extension.  His time might be short.  And the addition of Bregman might push someone into a DH role.  
 

That leaves the prospect bunch (Grissom, Campbell, Mayer) potentially fighting for one spot, unless there are injuries or trades…

 

When push comes to shove, I can default to the "too much money for the Sox to pay" argument and feel quite comfortable with it.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think there is as much there as you think.

Devers is locked in to one of the 4 spots.  As is Story, although as locks go, he’s not one of those ones you shoot with a gun in a commercial, if you get my drift (and arcane reference).  

Romy and Hamilton are not so much part of the starting four infield spots, either.  They shouldn’t be counted. (And Romy might be a DFA candidate.)

So with two “locks”, that leaves two spots for Bregman, Casas, Mayer, Grissom, and Campbell.  
 

Casas has refused an extension.  His time might be short.  And the addition of Bregman might push someone into a DH role.  
 

That leaves the prospect bunch (Grissom, Campbell, Mayer) potentially fighting for one spot, unless there are injuries or trades…

 

you raise a good point with Casas refusing an extension.  That could get interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

This "Casas refused an extension so he might be gone" theory puzzles me a bit.  It would be a pretty heavy-handed way to deal with a young player (and of course we don't know much they offered).  And Casas's comments about it seemed fine, acknowledging that he had to get better to deserve a better offer.   

They did already offer him up in trade, of course.

[Randy Red Sox]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This "Casas refused an extension so he might be gone" theory puzzles me a bit.  It would be a pretty heavy-handed way to deal with a young player (and of course we don't know much they offered).  And Casas's comments about it seemed fine, acknowledging that he had to get better to deserve a better offer.   

They did already offer him up in trade, of course.

i'd prefer we keep him.  I want no part of Bregman

[Old Red]

48 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This "Casas refused an extension so he might be gone" theory puzzles me a bit.  It would be a pretty heavy-handed way to deal with a young player (and of course we don't know much they offered).  And Casas's comments about it seemed fine, acknowledging that he had to get better to deserve a better offer.   

They did already offer him up in trade, of course.

I think the rumored Casas being traded thing to Seattle for pitching is gone for this year after picking up Cro Man, and Bue Man. Keep him, and if he has a good year he’d be more easy to trade, and the return may be better come next year.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

At this point the Sox do not need Flaherty as their rotation is set. I am almost certain Flaherty will not be worth the contract he gets which is why he is still out there IMO. I'm fine with Bello.

I think the rotation is set too, but as we all know a lot can happen health wise between now, and the start of the season. I know some are chafing at the bit to see Gio in the rotation, and it would be nice seeing him earn some of that $38M, but I’m not even counting him to be ready to start the season on the active roster. Whitlock neither. No one knows what the Red Sox will get out of Gio once he does start pitching. Remember last seen Gio was a batting practice pitcher for Home Run Derby, and a good one at that.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think the rumored Casas being traded thing to Seattle for pitching is gone for this year after picking up Cro Man, and Bue Man. Keep him, and if he has a good year he’d be more easy to trade, and the return may be better come next year.

Casas might be more difficult to trade next year.  One less year of control and entering his arb years.  Easier to deal a player making $30-35mill over the next 4 years than one making $30-35mill over the next 3 …

[moonslav59]

I won't be happy, if we sign Bregman to play 2B. I was barely for the idea of choosing this guy as "they guy," even for 3B. That being said, I feel like the window could be opened, now, with one major addition and maybe a tweak or two. Bregman is the only guy left, since I think Tanner Scott is not even on our radar.

I'm not for trading Casas, but notin might be right, due to his not wanting an extension. I don't blame him: he is one full healthy season away from a possible break-out year that would increase his value a ton. Of course, off-loading Yoshida could allow for a Casas/Devers timeshare at 1B/3B, so Breg could play 3B.

I'm okay with starting the season with a DHam- Grissom/Romy platoon at 2B, until we see what Campbell can do. Pushing Breg into the 2B slot messes up two areas, as he could have fixed the 3B D issue. Campbell could end up in the OF, if we traded Abreu, the LHB.

To me, Breg at 3B, make a trade of Abreu and or DHam for a catcher and RP'er, or just sign Estevez, Yates or Finnegan, and I'd call us serious contenders. I'd still dislike the way we became a contender, but we've all waited, too long to be one, already.

C: ______ & Wong

1B/DH: Devers & Casas

2B: DHam & Grissom/Romy (assuming no DHam trade) Campbell in May/June?

SS: Story (Romy until Mayer gets the call)

3B: Bregman (Grissom/Romy/Mayer?)

LF: Yoshida/Ref platoon (Duran)

CF: Duran & Rafaela

RF: Anthony (Abreu, if not trades as a platoon with Rafaela)

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (Crawford)

RP: ______, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero until Whitlock is ready.

This is a top 4 AL team. HOU got worse. BAL got worse. NYY is about the same. DET might have improved. KCR, CLE & SEA are about the same.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas might be more difficult to trade next year.  One less year of control and entering his arb years.  Easier to deal a player making $30-35mill over the next 4 years than one making $30-35mill over the next 3 …

This is probably my homer bias showing through, but if Casas stays healthy and plays 150+ games, I can see 2025 being a break-out season, for him. He turns 25, very soon and can still be considered "pre-prime," and these are his 2023-2024 numbers per 162:

.256  31  97 (.357 OBP and .480 SLG) .838 OPS and 126 OPS+ with horrific defense at 1B.

Try Devers at 1B for 81 games (maybe 100-120, if he shows he's better than Casas at 1B) and Casas at DH for 40-81 games. What could a "break out" season look like for Casas at 160 games?

.275 40  120 (.375/.525/.900)

That could be enough to get the Sox over the top, as long as others don't decline before or in their primes.

I'd hate to trade him away and see these results for another team.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i'd prefer we keep him.  I want no part of Bregman

I’m not so sure one depends on the other.

I’m not wild about Bregman either…

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

This is probably my homer bias showing through, but if Casas stays healthy and plays 150+ games, I can see 2025 being a break-out season, for him. He turns 25, very soon and can still be considered "pre-prime," and these are his 2023-2024 numbers per 162:

.256  31  97 (.357 OBP and .480 SLG) .838 OPS and 126 OPS+ with horrific defense at 1B.

Try Devers at 1B for 81 games (maybe 100-120, if he shows he's better than Casas at 1B) and Casas at DH for 40-81 games. What could a "break out" season look like for Casas at 160 games?

.275 40  120 (.375/.525/.900)

That could be enough to get the Sox over the top, as long as others don't decline before or in their primes.

I'd hate to trade him away and see these results for another team.

 

Absolutely he could have a great year.

But one thing that is certain is if the Sox wait, he will have one less year.

That said, I fully expect them to wait…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Absolutely he could have a great year.

But one thing that is certain is if the Sox wait, he will have one less year.

That said, I fully expect them to wait…

I totally get your point, and since off-loading Yoshida will not be easy, I can see why trading Casas and playing Devers at 1B makes sense. Of course, we are not trading Casas just to dump him. I expect a very nice return package that would greatly improve another weak area(s) on the team, like catcher or closer.

If Helsley had more than one year of control, a Casas for Helsley & Arenado, plus some cash might work, instead of signing Bregman.

Casas to OAK for Miller and Kyle McCann? Casas, DHam and Wong for Miller & Langeliers? (might have to sub in Abreu for the latter.)

I'm not really against this idea:

1B/DH Casas and Devers

LF: Yoshida & Ref platoon or Duran v R

CF: Duran (Rafaela v R)

RF: Abreu v R -Rafaela v L

I know this hurts our LF D, but an improvement at 3B D would outweigh it, and the LF situation could be short-lived or changed to Duran-Rafaela-Abreu v R or add Anthony, later.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally get your point, and since off-loading Yoshida will not be easy, I can see why trading Casas and playing Devers at 1B makes sense. Of course, we are not trading Casas just to dump him. I expect a very nice return package that would greatly improve another weak area(s) on the team, like catcher or closer.

If Helsley had more than one year of control, a Casas for Helsley & Arenado, plus some cash might work, instead of signing Bregman.

Casas to OAK for Miller and Kyle McCann? Casas, DHam and Wong for Miller & Langeliers? (might have to sub in Abreu for the latter.)

I'm not really against this idea:

1B/DH Casas and Devers

LF: Yoshida & Ref platoon or Duran v R

CF: Duran (Rafaela v R)

RF: Abreu v R -Rafaela v L

I know this hurts our LF D, but an improvement at 3B D would outweigh it, and the LF situation could be short-lived or changed to Duran-Rafaela-Abreu v R or add Anthony, later.

Casas isn’t worthless, but as a 1b he doesn’t have that kind of trade value.  Casas straight up for Langeliers?  I could see that.  But not for Miller plus, or even Miller straight up. (Worth noting - Langeliers is a lousy defensive catcher and is best used at DH.)

But I don’t think anyone gets dealt.  And hey, stockpiling beyond your needs is page one of the Dodger playbook, that says “bring in multiple utility infielders, turn all of them into All Stars, don’t trade your homegrown players, and then move the right fielder to starting shortstop.  And even after all that, bring in a Korean All Stars.”

[Bellhorn04]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas isn’t worthless, but as a 1b he doesn’t have that kind of trade value.  Casas straight up for Langeliers?  I could see that.  But not for Miller plus, or even Miller straight up. (Worth noting - Langeliers is a lousy defensive catcher and is best used at DH.)

But I don’t think anyone gets dealt.  And hey, stockpiling beyond your needs is page one of the Dodger playbook, that says “bring in multiple utility infielders, turn all of them into All Stars, don’t trade your homegrown players, and then move the right fielder to starting shortstop.  And even after all that, bring in a Korean All Stars.”

The Dodgers are kind of writing a new playbook these days.  Stockpiling beyond their needs is right.  

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas isn’t worthless, but as a 1b he doesn’t have that kind of trade value.  Casas straight up for Langeliers?  I could see that.  But not for Miller plus, or even Miller straight up. (Worth noting - Langeliers is a lousy defensive catcher and is best used at DH.)

But I don’t think anyone gets dealt.  And hey, stockpiling beyond your needs is page one of the Dodger playbook, that says “bring in multiple utility infielders, turn all of them into All Stars, don’t trade your homegrown players, and then move the right fielder to starting shortstop.  And even after all that, bring in a Korean All Stars.”

I get the stockpiling philosophy, but the Dodgers also have a solid 9 starters, most do not have a glaring weakness or two like ours do.

Good bat/horrible D: Devers, Casas, Wong, Ref & Yoshida

Good D/ Bad or questionable bat: Story, Rafaela, Abreu (v L)

All around good or better: Duran

Injury concerns: Story, Casas, Yoshida

We do have the "luxury" of having extended depth off the 40 man roster with Campbell, Anthony and Mayer. Except for catcher, we have pretty good depth and a few players that can play many positions well or pretty well, namely Rafaela and Romy. Having 2 pretty much DH only players, like Yoshida and Ref restrict the flexibility and creates a 26 roster crunch, but we need Refs RHB and Yoshida is untradeable and still offers some hope as a good-hitting DH and emergency LF'er.

At some point, especially when we start adding our top 3 prospects to the 40 and 26, we will have to trade someone. Sure, we can "stockpile" in AAA  guys like Romy, Grissom and DHam, but why not seek to turn a flawed position into an all around good player? Adding Bregman, and to a lesser extent Arenado would do that to 3B, but it complicates other roster slots. Either we dump Yoshida or Casas or force Yoshida-Ref to play a LF platoon and maybe squeeze the OF or trade Abreu and or Rafaela.

I know Rafaela is paid too much to be a "super utility" guy, but he could probably get a lot of PAs in the OF, and at 2B or even SS in an emergency. He could play RF vs LHPs (platoon with Abreu) and 2B vs RHPs, if we stash DHam in AAA. (Grissom or Romy could play 2B vs LHPs, until Campbell wins the position, outright. We won't add Campbell to the 40 and 26 to be a platoon or back-up. (Same with Anthony & Mayer.)

I know teams are not looking to make 2 for 1 trades, right now, as they all face 40 man roster crunches to varying degrees, but there are a few teams, like OAK, PIT, CWS and maybe a couple others, where guys we may be looking to stash at AAA would be starters on their team, or certainly better than their #39 and 40 man roster players.

I would also not rule out adding a good prospect or two to make a deal happen, where we fill our closer need, add a power RHB and or fix a defensive issue at C, 3B or 1B with an all around player or two.

I really like Abreu and seem to value him more highly than some, here, but I think he'd fetch a decent closer, catcher or just a duplicate of himself, but RH'd. Casas does not seem to have the trade value that equals what I think he can do for us with the bat, in the next few years. Ideally, he would DH, but a timeshare at 1B/DH w Devers would work, for me. I tend to think DHam has more trade value than others, too and fWAR agrees with me. Speed is a bigger value, these days, and he showed he can play plus 2B defense, too. His bat vs LHPs is lacking, but many teams have a platoon partner already in their system.

I think Casas & DHam for Miller might be accepted. Maybe we add Kelly or Penrod. I'm not sure about Abreo to OAK. If we traded for Arenado and traded Casas + for Miller, our roster would look much better. Improved R-L balance (Casas>Arenado). Improved 3B defense (Arenado). Possible improved 1B defense (Devers.) No DH squeeze on Yoshida-Ref with Casas gone. No need to have Yoshida-Ref play LF, unless in an emergency or after a PH situation, late in a game. The closer position not only filled for years, but filled very nicely. Not needing Chapman, Hendriks and Slaten to close better defines their roles and improves the whole pen by moving everyone down one notch on the high leverage scale of useage.

These aren't earth-shattering moves. Depending of what we give STL or how much they pay on Arenado's deal, it could be cheaper and shorter term than signing Breg.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Casas might be more difficult to trade next year.  One less year of control and entering his arb years.  Easier to deal a player making $30-35mill over the next 4 years than one making $30-35mill over the next 3 …

If he plays 140 games, he’s easier to deal again.

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If he plays 140 games, he’s easier to deal again.

Casas had pretty much a lost year last year, and the year before he had a horrible start before finishing stronger. I don’t know if his value is as high right now that some think. If he stays healthy, and puts up some good numbers in 2025 he’ll be more easier to trade, and help bring back a better return having one less year of control, or not IMO.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

When push comes to shove, I can default to the "too much money for the Sox to pay" argument and feel quite comfortable with it.

I’m going with the “I hate this move and it makes only marginal sense at best, so therefore they’re going to do it just to spite me” line of thinking.  That kind of logic transcends money…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’m going with the “I hate this move and it makes only marginal sense at best, so therefore they’re going to do it just to spite me” line of thinking.  That kind of logic transcends money…

I'm going with the, "this is a face-saving, knee jerk reaction move."

(If it happens.)

[notin]

22 hours ago, Old Red said:

Casas had pretty much a lost year last year, and the year before he had a horrible start before finishing stronger. I don’t know if his value is as high right now that some think. If he stays healthy, and puts up some good numbers in 2025 he’ll be more easier to trade, and help bring back a better return having one less year of control, or not IMO.

Casas is 24 years old with over 800 career PA and an OPS+ of 125, which is almost identical to that of Devers (126).  Unless he is going to have some sort of other worldly season, that lost year of control is a huge factor, especially since it’s a minimum wage one.  Control is just as important as ability when trading players (and salary is right there as well).

[moonslav59]

I think we need Casas in the line-up. He is one of our best LHBs vs LHPs. I do think he needs to end up at DH, eventually, but his bat is too essential to our outlook.

Moving Devers to 1B, DH or some sort of time share makes some sense, but then a Yoshida dump needs to happen, unless we try a Yoshida-Ref platoon in LF, until Anthony wins a FT OF job.

LF: Yoshida-Ref platoon

CF: Duran (Rafaela)

RF: Abreu-Rafaela platoon

While the OF D declines due to LF, the CF and RF slots remain very strong, if not GGesque.

(The pressumes a Bregman or Arenado addition at 3B.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we need Casas in the line-up. He is one of our best LHBs vs LHPs. I do think he needs to end up at DH, eventually, but his bat is too essential to our outlook.

Moving Devers to 1B, DH or some sort of time share makes some sense, but then a Yoshida dump needs to happen, unless we try a Yoshida-Ref platoon in LF, until Anthony wins a FT OF job.

LF: Yoshida-Ref platoon

CF: Duran (Rafaela)

RF: Abreu-Rafaela platoon

While the OF D declines due to LF, the CF and RF slots remain very strong, if not GGesque.

(The pressumes a Bregman or Arenado addition at 3B.)

I think they keep him, too.  My only point is he’s more tradable for more now unless he has an ungodly season, which is possible at his age…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think they keep him, too.  My only point is he’s more tradable for more now unless he has an ungodly season, which is possible at his age…

I just think he needs to stay healthy and he can hit near 40 Hrs and maybe .850-.875.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I think they keep him, too.  My only point is he’s more tradable for more now unless he has an ungodly season, which is possible at his age…

Would this work?

Casas to SEA

Castillo (maybe a little cash) to ATL

Murphy to BOS

Then, we make the Arenado trade.

[Larry Cook]

On 1/2/2025 at 11:30 PM, moonslav59 said:

Since you mention a couple platoons, why not one at 2B? DHam is ok vs RHPs and is a great baserunner.He sbetter on D than Grissom, too.

A fire hydrant is better on defense than Grissom 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

A fire hydrant is better on defense than Grissom 

I'd be fine starting the year with a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, until Campbell gets a shot.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

A fire hydrant is better on defense than Grissom 

To be fair, hydrants are there to snuff things out and stop disasters. Not sure Thats an insult…

[notin]

But regardless, it’s going to be Bregman at 2b.  This is not a wish; it’s a prediction…

[Hitch]

On 1/4/2025 at 6:55 PM, notin said:

Casas might be more difficult to trade next year.  One less year of control and entering his arb years.  Easier to deal a player making $30-35mill over the next 4 years than one making $30-35mill over the next 3 …

Depends on his performance. If he bangs 30/40 HRs and stays on the field, he'll have plenty of value. 

 

My worry is he'll have another half a season out with one thing or another, which will kill his value.