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At this point, the name most often connected to the Red Sox on the free agent market is two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman. He’s a Gold Glove third baseman, a position where the Red Sox could use improvement, and he’s willing to move to second base should a team need him there. That sounds great on paper, but do the Red Sox actually need to sign Alex Bregman?
First, let’s look at the rumored preferred contract for Bregman. The prevailing rumor is that he’s seeking a contract of seven years worth at least $200 million. That’s quite a large ask for someone going into their age-31 season. There’s no doubt that Bregman would be worth the first part of that contract if he were able to play his primary position, third base, for that entire span, but as the roster is currently constructed, third base still belongs to Rafael Devers for the foreseeable future. However, the back half of the contract would saddle the Red Sox with an aging star who very likely will fail to live up to expectations, potentially keeping the Red Sox from bringing in other big-name free agents down the line.
Second, we want to look at Bergman’s numbers over the last few seasons. First, in 2024, Bregman ran his highest strikeout rate since 2020, coming in at 13.6%. That’s not an insane strikeout percentage, but the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Even more concerning is his 6.9% walk rate, which is a disastrously big drop-off from the rates he's run every year since 2018. He's still got elite bat-to-ball skills, but he's chasing more, which is a worrisome trend. Bregman has never crushed the ball, but he's succeeded by pulling the ball in the air and running excellent walk and strikeout rates. If he can't do that anymore, then he'll burn up a lot of his margin for error. Moreover, pitchers seem to be less afraid of him, as he just ran one of the highest zone rates of his entire career. If the Red Sox are investing seven years in a player, that player needs to be trending upwards for the majority of the contract, not downwards.
Last, there’s a decent case to be made for letting Kristian Campbell and Vaughn Grissom compete for the starting second base spot in spring training. Campbell moved through the organization very quickly, but of all the high-level prospects in the system, Campbell seems the most ready to make the jump to the majors. If the Red Sox are serious upgrading their infield defense, there are ways to do it, but Bregman would represent a serious investment with serious risk. Although he brings an impressive amount of hardware and World Series experience with him, the Red Sox would be better served to look elsewhere for a defensive upgrade.
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