Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler To One-Year Contract

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sale saga should show you that oft injured pitchers with great stuff in their past can pull out a CY season in the right environment. 

Even he was a 1 in 5 year shot ( worked one year.)

I'm not saying it can never work out. I'm just saying I'm sick of these types of signings and hoping the guy we signed finds his past glory.

Richards hadn't pitched more than 77 innings in 5 years and had a 4.65 ERA in his previous 2 seasons (60 IP.) He was actually able to stay pretty healthy for us, but he sucked.

Kluber did okay, the year before we signed him (at age 36,) but had less than 120 IP in his previous 3 seasons with a 4.40 ERA. His last great season was also 5 years prior.

Wacha and Hill actually did okay for us, but both had long injury histories before we signed them. Wacha had 370 IP in his prior 4 season (4.67 ERA) and a 4.62 ERA over his prior 6 seasons. What were we hoping for? The 127 IP and 3.32 ERA was a dream come true, but still far from what we needed, that year. Hill's injury history has been well documented. We got more from him that expected (124 IP and 4.27 ERA.)

Like Hendriks, this year, Paxton was supposed to join  the team at the end of 2022, but nothing. He gave us an okay 19 starts in 2023, but went on the IL, when we needed him most. He had pitched 22 innings the previous 2 seasons. By the time he pitched for us, he was 4 seasons removed from being a decent pitcher going 120-160 IP for 4 straight years.

Now, It's Buehler's turn, and we should be hopeful? Why? Because of 10 IP? Because of something he did 4 years ago? Because it's 4 years ago, not 5, like the others? Because he's 30 and not 34-37, or 80 like Hill?

I hope I'm dead wrong on Buehler, but I just can't take even a sip of this Kool-Aid. Maybe by ST'ing, I might, but right now, I'm toast.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope I'm dead wrong on Buehler, but I just can't take even a sip of this Kool-Aid. Maybe by ST'ing, I might, but right now, I'm toast.

I don't think the Buehler signing is sweetening anyone's Flavor Aid. The real sweetener was Crochet. People are mad that they traded for him rather than signed him. That argument doesn't hold much weight to me. 

I'm not believing that this is a playoff team, but at least the rotation looks interesting. I've said all along that this had the chance to be another wait til next season year as they put the kids into the rotation. I think there will be growing pains, but at least Breslow seems to be willing to make some larger pitching moves than what we saw out of Bloom. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the Buehler signing is sweetening anyone's Flavor Aid. The real sweetener was Crochet. People are mad that they traded for him rather than signed him. That argument doesn't hold much weight to me. 

I'm not believing that this is a playoff team, but at least the rotation looks interesting. I've said all along that this had the chance to be another wait til next season year as they put the kids into the rotation. I think there will be growing pains, but at least Breslow seems to be willing to make some larger pitching moves than what we saw out of Bloom. 

I’ve been saying for the last two offseason that the Red Sox were not going to sign any big FA pitchers to any long term contracts, and would trade some suspects instead for pitching. So far that is how it worked out. Now we’ll see how Crochet works out, and how many years he stays with the Red Sox from 1.5 yrs to whatever extension they can work out with him. The way the Red Sox mojo has gone the past few years injuries wise that will have to change for the Red Sox to improve to the point of being like the 2021 team.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the Buehler signing is sweetening anyone's Flavor Aid. The real sweetener was Crochet. People are mad that they traded for him rather than signed him. That argument doesn't hold much weight to me. 

I'm not believing that this is a playoff team, but at least the rotation looks interesting. I've said all along that this had the chance to be another wait til next season year as they put the kids into the rotation. I think there will be growing pains, but at least Breslow seems to be willing to make some larger pitching moves than what we saw out of Bloom. 

The rotation is better, and the rotation depth is, too. If Buehler and Sandoval can cobble together 25-35 starts, it may be significantly better, but that is a big hope- not just on the GS and IP front, but on the "will they be good" front, as well. We also cannot see any regression from Houck and Bello, and we have to hope Gio can pitch like he did in 2021. (One could argue the first half of '23, I guess.)

The pen may be slightly better, but again, we are relying on a lot of hope: Whitlock's health, a return of Hendriks, Slaten not regressing, and an aged Chapman holding it together for one more year. We do have better extended pen depth that 2024, and we will likely need it, again.

The offense will rely on the kids to give a boost, or healthy seasons from Story and Casas. Again, no room for regression from Abreu, Rafaela or anyone else- just to stay even with the loss of O'Neill. We still have issue vs lefties.

Our defense can be much better, if Story stays healthy, but that seems like a broken and scratched record. If Narvaez is the back-up catcher, we should be better on D, there, if he plays 60+ games. Just by not playing Rafaela and DHam at SS can help, even if Story is on the IL.

I'm not seeing a significant improvement. There is still time to add a RHB (Teoscar,) a solid RP'er (Scott, Hoffman or Estevez) or a better catcher than Wong-Narvaez, but why should we expect that to happen? We may choose to get to the tax line by extending Crochet and maybe others.

[Larry Cook]

I really like this signing! If he is healthy! I commend bres-slow on the signing.  No club or player option! A true prove it deal. 

[Soxlover]

5 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Sure it is.

Remember: the team has claimed to be  "very interested" in Sasaki, like a whole lot of other talented players they never get.

You can’t bid more than other teams. It’s not allowed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Now, It's Buehler's turn, and we should be hopeful? Why? Because of 10 IP? Because of something he did 4 years ago? Because it's 4 years ago, not 5, like the others? Because he's 30 and not 34-37, or 80 like Hill?

Walker is just starting his 30s... so why can't Sox fans hope he can be like Nate Eovaldi, who -- after two TJS -- established himself as an All-Star and postseason stud that has won multiple rings?

The only difference is that Buehler is already a two-time All-Star and World Series champ.

[vjcsmoke]

Walker Buehler was a stud... 3 years ago.. Coming off his worst season. But if healthy maybe he'll come good. If he does well with the Red Sox the plan should be to extend him. We'll take a wait and see and hope he is ready to contribute THIS season since it's only a 1 year deal.

[vjcsmoke]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the Buehler signing is sweetening anyone's Flavor Aid. The real sweetener was Crochet. People are mad that they traded for him rather than signed him. That argument doesn't hold much weight to me. 

I'm not believing that this is a playoff team, but at least the rotation looks interesting. I've said all along that this had the chance to be another wait til next season year as they put the kids into the rotation. I think there will be growing pains, but at least Breslow seems to be willing to make some larger pitching moves than what we saw out of Bloom. 

Bloom was really awful. not a high bar to pass.

[Hugh2]

Crochet/Houck/Giolito/Bello/Buehler.

 

The ceiling of that rotation is as high as we’ve seen in years, with a higher floor and more depth as well.

[Soxlover]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Crochet/Houck/Giolito/Bello/Buehler.

 

The ceiling of that rotation is as high as we’ve seen in years, with a higher floor and more depth as well.

I agree with the ceiling but 4 guys on the IL is the low floor.

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, notin said:

I have no faith in Buehler, but Breslow clearly does, scratching out Nick Pivetta’s name on that check and replacing it with Buehler’s.   And I’ll root for Walker to do we’ll…

i think this is a good signing.  if he is healthy he should help.  no compensation either and we can offer him arbitration if he pitches well and in any event it is only 1yr.  i like this

[vjcsmoke]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Even he was a 1 in 5 year shot ( worked one year.)

I'm not saying it can never work out. I'm just saying I'm sick of these types of signings and hoping the guy we signed finds his past glory.

Richards hadn't pitched more than 77 innings in 5 years and had a 4.65 ERA in his previous 2 seasons (60 IP.) He was actually able to stay pretty healthy for us, but he sucked.

Kluber did okay, the year before we signed him (at age 36,) but had less than 120 IP in his previous 3 seasons with a 4.40 ERA. His last great season was also 5 years prior.

Wacha and Hill actually did okay for us, but both had long injury histories before we signed them. Wacha had 370 IP in his prior 4 season (4.67 ERA) and a 4.62 ERA over his prior 6 seasons. What were we hoping for? The 127 IP and 3.32 ERA was a dream come true, but still far from what we needed, that year. Hill's injury history has been well documented. We got more from him that expected (124 IP and 4.27 ERA.)

Like Hendriks, this year, Paxton was supposed to join  the team at the end of 2022, but nothing. He gave us an okay 19 starts in 2023, but went on the IL, when we needed him most. He had pitched 22 innings the previous 2 seasons. By the time he pitched for us, he was 4 seasons removed from being a decent pitcher going 120-160 IP for 4 straight years.

Now, It's Buehler's turn, and we should be hopeful? Why? Because of 10 IP? Because of something he did 4 years ago? Because it's 4 years ago, not 5, like the others? Because he's 30 and not 34-37, or 80 like Hill?

I hope I'm dead wrong on Buehler, but I just can't take even a sip of this Kool-Aid. Maybe by ST'ing, I might, but right now, I'm toast.

 

The Red Sox specialize in the broken down reclamation projects now. It's their idea of getting a bargain! Look, this guy was good 3-4 years ago SO if he regains that form the 21 million we pay him now will look like a bargain compared to the 28-30m we would have to pay a perfectly healthy pitcher who will actually throw for us most nights.

Why would you pay 100% market price for a guy who will be available 85-95% of the time when you can pay just 75% of the price for a guy who could be available 0-50% of the time? This is the Red Sox bargain hunting mindset.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

The Red Sox specialize in the broken down reclamation projects now. It's their idea of getting a bargain! Look, this guy was good 3-4 years ago SO if he regains that form the 21 million we pay him now will look like a bargain compared to the 28-30m we would have to pay a perfectly healthy pitcher who will actually throw for us most nights.

Why would you pay 100% market price for a guy who will be available 85-95% of the time when you can pay just 75% of the price for a guy who could be available 0-50% of the time? This is the Red Sox bargain hunting mindset.

Yup, more of the same but maybe in overdrive.

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, Soxlover said:

I agree with the ceiling but 4 guys on the IL is the low floor.

As is for any team if they lost 4 guys to the IL

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

As is for any team if they lost 4 guys to the IL

What about a 26 man IL? 

[FredLynn]

17 hours ago, Soxlover said:

You can’t bid more than other teams. It’s not allowed.

I get that. I cannot blame ownership for not bidding more than others if its not possible to do so. HOWEVER, how are the negotiations with Hernandez and Burnes going? Like others here reclamation dumpster diving doesn't cut it for me. Who exactly has Henry obtained that cost him significant money? He's trying to make the team relevant on the CHEAP and he's not fooling anyone.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

As is for any team if they lost 4 guys to the IL

I get that, but do you really think the chances of injury are less for Buehler and Sandoval than the norm?

Also, forget the injury aspect, how about something based totally on the records not speculation? 

Can we view this as a possible "floor?" Just repeat your last 28 or 44 GS'd....

Buehler: last 28 GS ('22-'24) 4.75 ERA (83 ERA+) 1.43 WHIP

Sandoval: last 44 GS ('23-'24)  4.45 ERA (98 ERA+) 1.51 WHIP

Certainly, we could get this, too. (I'm not expecting this, but these two guys present more than just injury concerns.)

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I get that. I cannot blame ownership for not bidding more than others if its not possible to do so. HOWEVER, how are the negotiations with Hernandez and Burnes going? Like others here reclamation dumpster diving doesn't cut it for me. Who exactly has Henry obtained that cost him significant money? He's trying to make the team relevant on the CHEAP and he's not fooling anyone.

I'm with you 100% on others, but you were acting like JH would not try to outbid others for Sasaki, when it is not really possible to outbid anyone for him.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm with you 100% on others, but you were acting like JH would not try to outbid others for Sasaki, when it is not really possible to outbid anyone for him.

I was unaware of how the bidding process works, that you are limited on how much you can offer. As long as Henry made a max bid that’s all you can ask for.

That said, I don’t exactly see evidence that they are serious about obtaining any of the high profile FAs. Burnes and Hernandez are still available. Bregman might help a bit but he’s “Hernandez-light”. 
I can’t even remember the last expensive FA they signed. All talk. No action.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I was unaware of how the bidding process works, that you are limited on how much you can offer. As long as Henry made a max bid that’s all you can ask for.

That said, I don’t exactly see evidence that they are serious about obtaining any of the high profile FAs. Burnes and Hernandez are still available. Bregman might help a bit but he’s “Hernandez-light”. 
I can’t even remember the last expensive FA they signed. All talk. No action.

I agree. All we've heard is talk on some b ig names, and almost anytime a number gets released, we are way off the final price tag.

I love the Crochet trade, but I wanted to see some money where there moth has been, and all we've seen is a little more money spent on the same type of FAs- ones that are looking to re-establish themselves, because they have been recently injured or had a down year or two. 

So, we spent more on Buehler than Kluber, Richards and Paxton. So, he's been better in more recent years than they had been. It's still the same thing but with more fluff, due to his last 10 IP of 2024 (the playoffs.)

Chapman is a worse signing than Jansen or Martin. 

I was hoping for actions not talk, and so far, no money deal has impressed me into thinking anything is different.

You are right, there is still time, but I seriously doubt we sign Burnes or Bregman. I'll be surprised, if we sign Teoscar or Hoffman. They have me looking at Estevez as the best I can hope for, now.

[Hugh2]

On 12/24/2024 at 3:11 PM, moonslav59 said:

I get that, but do you really think the chances of injury are less for Buehler and Sandoval than the norm?

Also, forget the injury aspect, how about something based totally on the records not speculation? 

Can we view this as a possible "floor?" Just repeat your last 28 or 44 GS'd....

Buehler: last 28 GS ('22-'24) 4.75 ERA (83 ERA+) 1.43 WHIP

Sandoval: last 44 GS ('23-'24)  4.45 ERA (98 ERA+) 1.51 WHIP

Certainly, we could get this, too. (I'm not expecting this, but these two guys present more than just injury concerns.)

 

There's also the risk of paying a guy over $200 million and he gets hurt.  Certainly Chris Sale on your roster injured under contract hamstrings the team a lot more than the guy you signed for one year. 

I'm also not overly concerned with the stats a guy puts up a year he is injured or working his way back from injury, it certainly takes more than a year to return to normal for many players. 

Les not forget that these moves are not uncommon for even the NY Mets or the Dodgers, we've just grown accustomed to Boston doing so without swimming in the deep end.  They didn't get Buehler and Sandoval, they got Buehler, Sandoval, and Crochet.  To me that high end ace talent changes how Buehler looks in the rotation.  

The cost is $21 million, the upside is a guy who is well worth it and nets you a draft pick. 

A good coaching and scouting department should be able to identify the guys who they can work with who are more likely to return to a peak performance or something close to it.  Sox haven't been that great in that department in recent years but I will give Breslow and friends their chance. 

I also don't think they're done, we have almost 2 months left until pitchers and catchers report. 

[Hugh2]

If Sasaki was about going to the highest bidder, he likely would have waited an offseason.  He's going to command the highest bonus this IFA class and that's for certain.  But if he wanted to come to Boston, or was sold on coming to Boston.  The bonus is probably around $4-$4.5 million; a team like Boston could trade for bonus pool space to keep in the rest of their commitments.

Shohei Ohtani didn't eat up all of the Angels pool space; he signed for a little over $2 million.  So I'm throwing my hat in the ring and projecting a bonus of $4.25 million for Sasaki. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I also don't think they're done, we have almost 2 months left until pitchers and catchers report. 

I was about to type that we need more catchers to report, but remembered half our pitchers won't be ready to pitch until mid-season. Some will still show up, though, for rehab...

... we need more trainers and physical therapists to report!

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I was about to type that we need more catchers to report, but remembered half our pitchers won't be ready to pitch until mid-season. Some will still show up, though, for rehab...

... we need more trainers and physical therapists to report!

I'm curious as to who you the 1/2 is?

The Sandoval signing is a play for 2026, it seems everyone who is expected to be part of the 2025 team as of right now will be there come spring time. 

Whitlock?

[Hugh2]

ADD: Has there been any indication of where Giolito is at for opening day?

I'd have to imagine he'd be working out at full strength NOW if that was going to happen. 

[Hugh2]

I find the Giolito contract fascinating.  

If he doesn't throw over 140 innings the Sox retain a $14 million dollar player option. 

It's perfectly plausible that he pitches well enough for that contract but it being his first full season back his innings are limited. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm curious as to who you the 1/2 is?

The Sandoval signing is a play for 2026, it seems everyone who is expected to be part of the 2025 team as of right now will be there come spring time. 

Whitlock?

Red Sox pitchers with recent elbow operations: Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Whitlock, Sandoval, Fulmer, Moran, Sam Kennedy (injured doing the Funky Chicken at the office Christmas party).

They'll all be there... but it may be prudent not to count on all being better than ever without any setbacks.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Red Sox pitchers with recent elbow operations: Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Whitlock, Sandoval, Fulmer, Moran, Sam Kennedy (injured doing the Funky Chicken at the office Christmas party).

They'll all be there... but it may be prudent not to count on all being better than ever without any setbacks.

Ok, so past injury and rehabbing aren't exactly the same thing.  Also, I wonder what percentage of MLB pitchers today have had some kind of past procedure, and I'd love to see that stat compared to 20/40/60 years ago. 

I'd also like to take a list of all MLB players 28 and over who have never had an injury and see how many get injured in 2025.

It sucks, and obviously you can't dismiss it, but the reality is if you're signing a MLB pitcher in todays game that odds that they have had or will have some kind of surgery is as high as it's ever been. 

There's no such thing as safe pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I find the Giolito contract fascinating.  

If he doesn't throw over 140 innings the Sox retain a $14 million dollar player option. 

Team option, that is.  Could come into play, you're right.  More fun stuff to keep an eye on.  🙂