Red Sox Among Front-Runners To Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

At some point, what BTV cannot account for is what Pittsburgh thinks of those players…

Of course, Im merely suggesting that a trade for Jones is an option to futher bolster the SP.  Im not screaming "do my trade" at the computer.

Burnes, Manaea, Castillo, Jones, Others .... All avenues to getting an actually scary SP rotation. Just adding Jones to the conversation.  Not implying this is a trade that NEEDS to happen.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I doubt they figure the cost of replacing the player.  And why should they?  Abreu’s trade value isn’t affected at all by the presence of Roman Anthony.   That might influence Boston’s desire to move him, but it doesn’t make him a better or cheaper player…

I meant general market value.  When contracts spike for SP, pitchers like Castillo gain trade value. Not to sound like Harmony.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they are really updating it offseason week to week, then what is the metric aside from player value and $$$? Are they just WAGing it? Again, it's just a fun toy and isn't a direct correlation to real life. 

I can’t speak to why they update, but I can theorize.  But history has shown it is usually fairly accurate.

Of course most teams probably use similar methods but with different sources to determine trade values of their players and targets, which is why it usually works. But sometimes it doesn’t.  Is that because it’s just inaccurate? Or because sometimes teams overpay/underpay?

I think it did a good job telling you what’s fair.  That doesn’t mean every team only wants fair value…

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

But Im not the one to ask if BTV's algo does it well

BTV is great at showcasing when trades work with their model. When a trade is an overpay, they just handwave it away.

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

BTV is great at showcasing when trades work with their model. When a trade is an overpay, they just handwave it away.

They post it as is.  They used to add money to one side or another to make it work, but then said so in the comments.  

In dont think they do that anymore since you can post lopsided trades with certain access levels (which the site admin clearly has)…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Of course, Im merely suggesting that a trade for Jones is an option to futher bolster the SP.  Im not screaming "do my trade" at the computer.

Burnes, Manaea, Castillo, Jones, Others .... All avenues to getting an actually scary SP rotation. Just adding Jones to the conversation.  Not implying this is a trade that NEEDS to happen.

And it’s easy to say “I doubt it will.”  Safe bet random message board banter has never influenced any front office. 
 

Is Abreu plus Hamilton fair value for Jones?  Maybe?  But if Pitt is trying to capitalize on a hot market, “fair value” probably isn’t their goal…

 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

And it’s easy to say “I doubt it will.”  Safe bet random message board banter has never influenced any front office. 
 

Is Abreu plus Hamilton fair value for Jones?  Maybe?  But if Pitt is trying to capitalize on a hot market, “fair value” probably isn’t their goal…

 

Fair value is never the goal. You only take fair value when you cant get better. At least at this point in season, might be diff if you are 1 hr away from trade deadline or on a losing streak (read: need to act fast)

[drewski6]

I hear you, though.  

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Fair value is never the goal. You only take fair value when you cant get better. At least at this point in season, might be diff if you are 1 hr away from trade deadline or on a losing streak (read: need to act fast)

I think while fair value is not the goal, it’s quite often the solution, as a trade proposal only becomes a trade when both sides agree. 
 

And more trades are done for reasons related to money.  In those cases, getting an overpayment (or even equal talent ) isn’t always the goal.  I mean, no one thinks Cody Poteet is as good of a baseball player as Cody Bellinger…

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree with most. Id be a little shy to deal Casas immediately, especially if we are signing Breg and Burnes.

My only issue with this post is the last sentence.  Bregman and Burnes are both superstar signings.

Also, the AAV for B & B vs Soto is what matters more than total dollars.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If they are really updating it offseason week to week, then what is the metric aside from player value and $$$? Are they just WAGing it? Again, it's just a fun toy and isn't a direct correlation to real life. 

Events and circumstances can impact the stock market -- and any market -- on a day-to-day basis. That's what we see every year in the MLB offseason.

Baseball Trade Values is not perfect but the site regularly reviews its projections:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history

Each MLB front office presumably reviews its projections.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I can’t speak to why they update, but I can theorize.  But history has shown it is usually fairly accurate.

Of course most teams probably use similar methods but with different sources to determine trade values of their players and targets, which is why it usually works. But sometimes it doesn’t.  Is that because it’s just inaccurate? Or because sometimes teams overpay/underpay?

I think it did a good job telling you what’s fair.  That doesn’t mean every team only wants fair value…

The site's founder addresses BTV's offseason updates:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

Events and circumstances can impact the stock market -- and any market -- on a day-to-day basis. That's what we see every year in the MLB offseason.

Baseball Trade Values is not perfect but the site regularly reviews its projections:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history

Each MLB front office presumably reviews its projections.

You didn't answer my question. The transparency on their acceptance rate is awful. 

[harmony]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You didn't answer my question. The transparency on their acceptance rate is awful. 

On the issue of transparency, we all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the valuations of detailed system:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations

... and the bald, opaque opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

On the issue of transparency, we all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the valuations of detailed system:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/notes-on-our-valuations

... and the bald, opaque opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.

Because when they get a trade wrong, it's never because of their model! It's always because of something else!

FTA: 

But that means sometimes there’s a lag between what the numbers are and what they should be, had they been updated sooner. A young prospect with helium may be traded in December, let’s say, and the trade might look a little off because our numbers are still reflecting the previous update on a prospect (or two) that was involved in it. But then, the new numbers might come out in January, and at that point the trade looks a lot closer. In other words, the gap was caused by a time lag, not an issue with our model.

Enjoy playing with their toy. Just don't give it more credence than Old Red yammering at the dive bar down the street. 

[vjcsmoke]

Cody Bellinger is a much better talent than Poteet. Is 26m per year an overpay for a 28 year old .810 OPS first baseman? maybe but it's easily something the Yankees can swing because their owners aren't afraid to spend money to improve the team.

[moonslav59]

They spent $12.5M on Goldschmidt, instead of $20M per on Walker. That's the sign of a management team not afraid to spend big... NOT!

[notin]

2 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Cody Bellinger is a much better talent than Poteet. Is 26m per year an overpay for a 28 year old .810 OPS first baseman? maybe but it's easily something the Yankees can swing because their owners aren't afraid to spend money to improve the team.

Apparently the plan is to play Cody Bellinger in CF.

Somewhere in the country right now, a very disappointed Trent Grisham is screaming “WHAT THE f***!!”

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Apparently the plan is to play Cody Bellinger in CF.

Somewhere in the country right now, a very disappointed Trent Grisham is screaming “WHAT THE f***!!”

The Yanks have had some head-scratchers, too,

[Behindenemylines]

Bregman works because he is open to play second base. We know he can play third base and be above average defender. He has also played some short in his career and could fill in if needed. His bat plays in Fenway and he is a gamer that you hate when he plays for the other team. This potential signing comes down ro the Sox plan for Devers and Casas. Would the signing and versatility of Bregman allow Devers to play some 3B and some DH to keep him healthy. How soon in Devers new contract do they give up third base and become a DH. Also, don't trade Casis unless you can get a young top of the rotation starting pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They spent $12.5M on Goldschmidt, instead of $20M per on Walker. That's the sign of a management team not afraid to spend big... NOT!

We're making fun of teams outspending us by $150 million+ (including tax) for exercising fiscal restraint?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're making fun of teams outspending us by $150 million+ (including tax) for exercising fiscal restraint?

 

Yup -- ha ha, those suckers; if they don't stop themselves, they're going to have to play ball in the cold of November, when the Red Sox players are all lounging on vacation beaches.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

Bregman works because he is open to play second base. We know he can play third base and be above average defender. He has also played some short in his career and could fill in if needed. His bat plays in Fenway and he is a gamer that you hate when he plays for the other team. This potential signing comes down ro the Sox plan for Devers and Casas. Would the signing and versatility of Bregman allow Devers to play some 3B and some DH to keep him healthy. How soon in Devers new contract do they give up third base and become a DH. Also, don't trade Casis unless you can get a young top of the rotation starting pitcher.

So dont trade Casas.   Because you can absolutely NOT get a young top of the rotation starter for him…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're making fun of teams outspending us by $150 million+ (including tax) for exercising fiscal restraint?

 

We didn't lose Soto.. I'm not making fun of them. I'm pointing out that they are not going the extra mile to address all their needs.

I'm pretty sure Yankee fans are not thrilled at the net gains and losses, so far, but they probably have more hope for the rest of the winter moves than us Sox fans do.

I have been making fun of our moves.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We didn't lose Soto.. I'm not making fun of them. I'm pointing out that they are not going the extra mile to address all their needs.

I'm pretty sure Yankee fans are not thrilled at the net gains and losses, so far, but they probably have more hope for the rest of the winter moves than us Sox fans do.

I have been making fun of our moves.

Max Fried might be a pretty nice get for them.  Bellinger might be a good move too.

The thing is they just don't stop making significant moves.     

[Duran Is The Man]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Max Fried might be a pretty nice get for them.  Bellinger might be a good move too.

The thing is they just don't stop making significant moves.     

and unless the Sox do something, i'd be willing to bet that the Yankems are in the playoffs next year while the Sox are sitting at home.

[a700hitter]

Front Runners pursuing Bregman with interest, while the reality is that they are picking through dumpsters and charging World Series ticket prices.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

Front Runners pursuing Bregman with interest, while the reality is that they are picking through dumpsters and charging World Series ticket prices.

Much like the team on the field the last few years, the Boston Front Office Front Runners tend to run out of steam and basically fall apart down the stretch. 

[Larry Cook]

Assuming yoshida starts the year on the DL! 
then devers with the bad shoulders could start the year as the DH! 

so our infield defense to start the year is casas at 1st. Hamilton/Gonzalez at 2nd, story at SS, and Bergman (if we sign him) at 3rd! Only 1st base is a dumpster fire defensively! 

about 30 games into the season, story breaks down faster and more thoroughly than a 1978 ford pinto and goes on season ending DL, and devers announces he is healthy to play the field! 

Our new infield defense is casas at 1st base, Bergman (if he signs) at 2nd base, Hamilton/gonzalez/rafeala at SS and devers at 3rd base!!!  Only 2nd base could potentially not be a total dumpster fire defensively!!!!!!?

This is why Campbell and Mayer need to be ready quickly in 2025! 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Max Fried might be a pretty nice get for them.  Bellinger might be a good move too.

The thing is they just don't stop making significant moves.     

If ownership was serious about competing, we should have beaten the Yankees out for fried!!!!!