Red Sox Among Front-Runners To Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That's been my suspicion for a while. Boras is desperately trying anything not to let down another client who turned down a large pre-free agency offer in terms of testing the market. 

Boras doesn't have his fastball anymore. 

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He probably has a 5 year deal or two offered, and that's why the Sox name is still mentioned, from time to time. If the Sox offered 4, they are close. Maybe he takes a 4 year deal with a higher AAV and an opt out after 1 or 2 years over a 5 year deal that just gives him $10-15M more. Maybe not.

Maybe they think the Sox might buckle and go 5.

I think Fenway would suit Bregman fine. If he gets an opt out with the Sox, he could maybe build his value with 1-2 big years w BOS. Maybe no.

I'm not counting on us getting him. The odds are probably 1-5%, but I keep checking MLBTR, everyday.

Why would he opt out? Aging hitters aren't going to get more expensive in this day and age. Only pitchers in their 30's are retaining their value at the moment and that's because of scarcity. Bregman's production being replaced by Campbell in a year or two is harder to accomplish for pitchers. 

[mvp 78]

Also, with a looming lockout in 2027, I don't expect players to be getting mega deals next offseason.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If you total up Paxton, Richards and Kluber, it's $30M. I think we could do better with a $30M/3 or $30M/2 type deal, but I'm not sure how much better.

Kikuchi signed for $36M/2 in '22. I know that is cherry picking. Others signed for about the same and did about as badly as Richards-Kluber-Paxton.

Imanaga signed for $13.5M x 4 in '24 and Lugo for $15M x 3, the same year. Not sure those are fair comps, unless you include the Sandoval or Buehler deals as part of the exchange.

They offered Imanaga a larger contract and he elected to sign with the Cubbies. 

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They offered Imanaga a larger contract and he elected to sign with the Cubbies. 

Don't think so.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would he opt out? Aging hitters aren't going to get more expensive in this day and age. Only pitchers in their 30's are retaining their value at the moment and that's because of scarcity. Bregman's production being replaced by Campbell in a year or two is harder to accomplish for pitchers. 

He probably would not opt out or ask for one.

He might opt out, if we pay him $30M, $30M- opt out- $20M and $15M.

He probably won't. but taking a higher AAV with less years can sometimes make an opt-out more appealing, especially if it's after 1 year, when he will not be too old.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bregman's 2024 that some worry show his age (31 by Opening Day!):

... home run percentage, exit velocity and hard hit rate were all his highest in half a decade since his breakout year in 2019.

Alex' opposite field percentage was also the full-season highest of his career. Does that mean he was too weak to pull the ball, or mature enough to go with the pitch and hit behind baserunners to move them closer to scoring runs?

Would the all-or-nothing Red Sox offense welcome a hitter like that?

[moonslav59]

Bregman has not done great in 4-5 years.

I'd like him on this team for his defense, but he is not the RHB solution, nor should he be viewed as an .800 hitter.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bregman's 2024 that some worry show his age (31 by Opening Day!):

... home run percentage, exit velocity and hard hit rate were all his highest in half a decade since his breakout year in 2019.

Alex' opposite field percentage was also the full-season highest of his career. Does that mean he was too weak to pull the ball, or mature enough to go with the pitch and hit behind baserunners to move them closer to scoring runs?

Would the all-or-nothing Red Sox offense welcome a hitter like that?

His hard hit rate was up, but his bb rate was the lowest of his career. He was selling out for power in a contract year and the numbers barely moved a blip IMO. His OBP crashed out by 50 points and his OPS was an all time low. If you look at his spray charts, he only had success as a pull hitter. OR it's just one season and the numbers can be fluky year to year... There isn't a great trend with him though.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman has not done great in 4-5 years.

I'd like him on this team for his defense, but he is not the RHB solution, nor should he be viewed as an .800 hitter.

He's been an 800 OPS hitter every year except for '21 and '24. If he had a normal bb rate last season, he would have been there again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman has not done great in 4-5 years.

"Great?"

The last time the Red Sox signed a free agent who was great at his position was probably a DH named JD.

Fans would just like to see them sign a few free agents who are still actually good, instead of flotsam and jetsam cut by other clubs or rehabbers from a MASH unit.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

"Great?"

The last time the Red Sox signed a free agent who was great at his position was probably a DH named JD.

Fans would just like to see them sign a few free agents who are still actually good, instead of flotsam and jetsam cut by other clubs or rehabbers from a MASH unit.

Per offensive bWAR this is how Bregman would have stacked up on the BOS roster the past few years:

24 - 2nd

23 - 1st

22 - 2nd

🫠

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per offensive bWAR this is how Bregman would have stacked up on the BOS roster the past few years:

24 - 2nd

23 - 1st

22 - 2nd

🫠

Once again highlighting that our offense could really use another bat.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per offensive bWAR this is how Bregman would have stacked up on the BOS roster the past few years:

24 - 2nd

23 - 1st

22 - 2nd

🫠

While those contributions may enhance our present, we have to keep oculars on the future...

(might've said the current CBO, whose future is in serious doubt, since next season will be his third -- doomsday for Red Sox CBOs in the John Henry Era)

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His hard hit rate was up, but his bb rate was the lowest of his career. He was selling out for power in a contract year and the numbers barely moved a blip IMO. His OBP crashed out by 50 points and his OPS was an all time low. If you look at his spray charts, he only had success as a pull hitter. OR it's just one season and the numbers can be fluky year to year... There isn't a great trend with him though.

2024 was his worst, but the 3-4 years before 2024 were not vintage Bregman, either.

OPS+

144 from '16-'19

122 from '20-'24

120 from '23-'24

117 in 2024

He has been in decline for about 4-5 years.

 

OPS vs LHPs since 2023:

.794 Casas

.704 Bregman

.654 Arrenado

 

I get the idea of improving 3B defense, but let's not pretend this is "balancing" the L-R line-up problem.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

2024 was his worst, but the 3-4 years before 2024 were not vintage Bregman, either.

OPS+

144 from '16-'19

122 from '20-'24

120 from '23-'24

117 in 2024

He has been in decline for about 4-5 years.

 

OPS vs LHPs since 2023:

.794 Casas

.704 Bregman

.654 Arrenado

 

I get the idea of improving 3B defense, but let's not pretend this is "balancing" the L-R line-up problem.

Bregman has some serious reverse splits the last few years.  

The Red Sox biggest problem last year was actually that our righties couldn't hit righties and our lefties couldn't hit lefties.  So he would be a boost in that regard.

This "balancing" thing seems to have become yet another rabbit hole LOL  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Once again highlighting that our offense could really use another bat.

Yup. I'm not sure if they actually pull the trigger. I think the beat writers are getting antsy now that pitchers and catchers are reporting tomorrow. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yup. I'm not sure if they actually pull the trigger. I think the beat writers are getting antsy now that pitchers and catchers are reporting tomorrow. 

And I'm going to try to put a pause on my front office beeching until there's a resolution on Arenado and Bregman. 😉 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bregman has some serious reverse splits the last few years.  

The Red Sox biggest problem last year was actually that our righties couldn't hit righties and our lefties couldn't hit lefties.  So he would be a boost in that regard.

This "balancing" thing seems to have become yet another rabbit hole LOL  

Catching situation

Bad defense at 1B

Bad defense at 3B

Not enough LHP mashers

No viable closer

Overall health of everyday lineup and rotation

Duran's predictable fall back to earth

Anticipated slow starts for prospect callups

Masataka Yoshida's impact on the 26 man roster

Was Cora a one hit wonder in 2018?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I'm going to try to put a pause on my front office beeching until the dust settles on Arenado and Bregman. 😉 

It should be settled by the time hitters report IMO

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Catching situation

Bad defense at 1B

Bad defense at 3B

Not enough LHP mashers

No viable closer

Overall health of everyday lineup and rotation

Duran's predictable fall back to earth

Anticipated slow starts for prospect callups

Masataka Yoshida's impact on the 26 man roster

Was Cora a one hit wonder in 2018?

Good list. I'd say Cora did a good job in '21, so maybe a two-hit wonder.

How would you order these needs?

I'd go: 1. Injury risks 2.  Catching, 3, Closer, 4. LHB, 5. 3B defense, 6. 1B defense

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good list. I'd say Cora did a good job in '21, so maybe a two-hit wonder.

How would you order these needs?

I'd go: 1. Injury risks 2.  Catching, 3, Closer, 4. LHB, 5. 3B defense, 6. 1B defense

I wouldn't say it's a need, more like a rabbit hole of worry: 

1. Injury Risk (though that stands for most of MLB rotations these days)

2. Closer

3. Catching

4. 3B defense

5. LHB? 

6. 1B defense

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't say it's a need, more like a rabbit hole of worry: 

1. Injury Risk (though that stands for most of MLB rotations these days)

2. Closer

3. Catching

4. 3B defense

5. LHB? 

6. 1B defense

The thing about adding a RHB is that the right one could solve the catching problem or corner IF defense.

The talk of Bregman or Arenado, IMO, does not fix the problems vs LHPs. It just adds a RHB, but takes away a better LHB vs LHPs (Casas or Yoshida.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1A. Closer -- not having a legit shutdown closer leaves too many games open for demoralizing losses.

OR because we know how unlikely it is they spend for both (just pray it's either)...

1B. Good batter who doesn't strike out -- this guy is especially valuable in moving ghost runners so the team can salvage a few more extra inning wins out of the inevitable blown saves from not having a closer.

[jad]

Aren't there any right-handed flashers or wife-beaters available?