Rumor: Mariners Listening On Offers For Right-Hander Luis Castillo

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe mentioned in a recent write-up that the Seattle Mariners are listening when opposing GMs come calling for Luis Castillo.

Castillo turns 32 in a few days. A reliable frontline starter for several years, the righty's ERA took a step backward in 2024 but most of his peripherals suggest the situation is far from dire. He lost roughly half a mile per hour on his pitches but metrics such as Stuff+ and Statcast are conflicted on whether the quality of his pitches changed significantly enough to warrant his ERA dropping to roughly league-average.

Castillo is signed for a little over $24 million per season through 2027 and has a vesting option for 2028 at $25 million.

The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball but spend every season trying to scrape together enough runs to reach meaningful October baseball. There is a good chance they end up dealing some of that pitching for long-term lineup help.

View full rumor

[mvp 78]

Per Statcast 2024:

xBA 41st percentile

xERA 53rd percentile

Whiff 53rd percentile

He has a very large home/road split and has a big problem with LHB now (846 OPS). Every AL East team has a tOPS+ above 100 against Castillo over the past two seasons except for the O's. 

I don't think he's a frontline starter. He's a midrotation guy and the M's have younger and cheaper guys that they can work in. It's obvious that they are looking to move him. 

[notin]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per Statcast 2024:

xBA 41st percentile

xERA 53rd percentile

Whiff 53rd percentile

He has a very large home/road split and has a big problem with LHB now (846 OPS). Every AL East team has a tOPS+ above 100 against Castillo over the past two seasons except for the O's. 

I don't think he's a frontline starter. He's a midrotation guy and the M's have younger and cheaper guys that they can work in. It's obvious that they are looking to move him. 

The obligatory BTV mention has Castillo with a surplus value of $2.8mill, same as Wikelman Gonzalez.  I don’t see Seattle making that deal, as I’d guess they’re trying to capitalize on inflated SP contracts.  Castillo might be a mid-rotation guy, but the value of his current contract is only $3mill AAV over the new one for the the extremely fungible Yusei Kikuchi…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

The obligatory BTV mention has Castillo with a surplus value of $2.8mill, same as Wikelman Gonzalez.  I don’t see Seattle making that deal, as I’d guess they’re trying to capitalize on inflated SP contracts.  Castillo might be a mid-rotation guy, but the value of his current contract is only $3mill AAV over the new one for the the extremely fungible Yusei Kikuchi…

Yeah, I think the asking price will be too high for what Castillo brings. 

[moonslav59]

How many times did we hear Castillo was not on the market to be traded?

[harmony]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How many times did we hear Castillo was not on the market to be traded?

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto in late September reportedly said trading from the Mariner starting rotation would be "Plan Z."

https://www.mlb.com/news/jerry-dipoto-reflects-on-mariners-2024-season-future

[harmony]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

The obligatory BTV mention has Castillo with a surplus value of $2.8mill, same as Wikelman Gonzalez.  I don’t see Seattle making that deal, as I’d guess they’re trying to capitalize on inflated SP contracts.  Castillo might be a mid-rotation guy, but the value of his current contract is only $3mill AAV over the new one for the the extremely fungible Yusei Kikuchi…

FWIW Luis Castillo's value at Baseball Trade Values has jumped from a negative $30.6 million on November 8, to a negative $6.1 million on November 22, to a positive $5.5 million on December 2 to a positive $2.8 million today.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto in late September reportedly said trading from the Mariner starting rotation would be "Plan Z."

https://www.mlb.com/news/jerry-dipoto-reflects-on-mariners-2024-season-future

Dipoto dispelled speculation that the Mariners would be open to dealing young starting pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, likening the notion to “plan Z.”

[harmony]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dipoto dispelled speculation that the Mariners would be open to dealing young starting pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, likening the notion to “plan Z.”

Perhaps that reporting is imprecise. Here is what the top beat reporter wrote:

https://x.com/RyanDivish/status/1840164420204540316

 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, harmony said:

Perhaps that reporting is imprecise. Here is what the top beat reporter wrote:

https://x.com/RyanDivish/status/1840164420204540316

 

And a follow up a few weeks later:

“If you remove something for your club and you add something of equal value, you haven't really moved the ball forward. We're looking to move the ball forward.
... It's tough to imagine scenarios with moving our young pitching, that we move our ball forward and not just rearrange things. And we're not really looking to rearrange, we're looking to get better.”

[harmony]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And a follow up a few weeks later:

“If you remove something for your club and you add something of equal value, you haven't really moved the ball forward. We're looking to move the ball forward.
... It's tough to imagine scenarios with moving our young pitching, that we move our ball forward and not just rearrange things. And we're not really looking to rearrange, we're looking to get better.”

No doubt that the Mariners are listening to offers on Luis Castillo.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Dipoto dispelled speculation that the Mariners would be open to dealing young starting pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, likening the notion to “plan Z.”

Yup, nothing about Castillo trade being plan Z.

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How many times did we hear Castillo was not on the market to be traded?

what i heard was that Castillo was the ONLY SP Seattle MIGHT trade

[harmony]

44 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

what i heard was that Castillo was the ONLY SP Seattle MIGHT trade

Seattle reportedly will listen on Luis Castillo ... and any current Mariner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nECI_Ti18AA

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle reportedly will listen on Luis Castillo ... and any current Mariner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nECI_Ti18AA

 

How is it that we know more about your ever-trading GM than you do?

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

How is it that we know more about your ever-trading GM than you do?

The Boston front office is probably leakier than the Seattle front office.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Boston front office is probably leakier than the Seattle front office.

I'm talking about your team's history of multiple trades, every winter.

[notin]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, nothing about Castillo trade being plan Z.

Plan Z is still a plan.

[moonslav59]

Word is SEA refused Casas for Miller or Woo- just like or similar to some trades some of us suggested.

I think I'd rather have 5 years of one of them than 2 of Crochet, but it's a close call.

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Luis Castillo's value at Baseball Trade Values has jumped from a negative $30.6 million on November 8, to a negative $6.1 million on November 22, to a positive $5.5 million on December 2 to a positive $2.8 million today.

Id give him +11, personally.

[drewski6]

Lets say the Yankees get Burnes, the Blue Jays get Fried and the Mets trade for Crochet. Sasaki to the dodgers and Seattle offers you Castillo for Hamilton (+13). You laughing them off the phone? Cuz that doesnt sound terrible to me.

[notin]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Lets say the Yankees get Burnes, the Blue Jays get Fried and the Mets trade for Crochet. Sasaki to the dodgers and Seattle offers you Castillo for Hamilton (+13). You laughing them off the phone? Cuz that doesnt sound terrible to me.

Hamilton was a pleasant surprise last year, but I’d deal him for a lesser SP than Castillo…

[harmony]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Lets say the Yankees get Burnes, the Blue Jays get Fried and the Mets trade for Crochet. Sasaki to the dodgers and Seattle offers you Castillo for Hamilton (+13). You laughing them off the phone? Cuz that doesnt sound terrible to me.

Seattle would never offer Luis Castillo for 27-year-old infielder David Hamilton, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 0.6 in 50 games.

In the utility role the Mariners already have Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 136 games.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Lets say the Yankees get Burnes, the Blue Jays get Fried and the Mets trade for Crochet. Sasaki to the dodgers and Seattle offers you Castillo for Hamilton (+13). You laughing them off the phone? Cuz that doesnt sound terrible to me.

Breslow would bite his tongue off in haste at saying yes to such a thing. 

Not remotely close to what Castillo would fetch (or is worth).

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Hamilton was a pleasant surprise last year, but I’d deal him for a lesser SP than Castillo…

I'd deal him for a middle reliever. 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is SEA refused Casas for Miller or Woo- just like or similar to some trades some of us suggested.

I think I'd rather have 5 years of one of them than 2 of Crochet, but it's a close call.

a close call? really? i truly don't get the obsession for Crochet and his 1/2 of a good season. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

a close call? really? i truly don't get the obsession for Crochet and his 1/2 of a good season. 

There's a slight worry of regression for the guys leaving SEA, but I agree that I'd rather have the extra years of Woo or Miller. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Seattle would never offer Luis Castillo for 27-year-old infielder David Hamilton, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 0.6 in 50 games.

In the utility role the Mariners already have Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore, whom Steamer projects with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 136 games.

Bullshiit Steamer projections aside, Hamilton was actually worth 1.7 fWAR in 98 games, which extrapolates out to 2.3 fWAR in 136 games.  He’s not a step down from Moore.  At worst, he’s an equal, and as he’s 5 years younger, is more likely to improve.

Moore’s Gold Glove was undeserved.  Ceddanne Rafaela played multiple roles and fared better on the defensive metrics.

That said, and despite Hamilton’s significantly greater surplus value than Castillo’s, I’d be surprised if even Dipoto entertained that offer, as my guess is the primary reason Castillo is potentially available is because he’s marketed as a “low cost” starting solution…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

a close call? really? i truly don't get the obsession for Crochet and his 1/2 of a good season. 

All the GMs are looking at recent history and salivating: fireballing Sox southpaw, former closer, gets traded and wins the Cy Young Award... it just happened to another guy who began his career in Chicago! 

Those who forget the past...

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There's a slight worry of regression for the guys leaving SEA, but I agree that I'd rather have the extra years of Woo or Miller. 

I take Crochet over Miller.  Not sure where Woo ranks among the three…