Article: Juan Soto Signed With the Mets. What’s Next for the Red Sox?

[Davy Andrews]

The biggest domino of the offseason has toppled, and not in Boston's direction. Let's talk about what the Red Sox do now?

And with that, the offseason has officially started for the Boston Red Sox. Juan Soto has decided that he will wear a Mets hat on his Hall of Fame plaque. While the Red Sox were never considered the favorite to land Soto, they were by all accounts a real contender, and missing out on that kind of generational talent – even if you’re relieved that it means the team isn’t on the hook for $765 million over the next 15 years – is still a blow. The next Ted Williams won’t be roaming the same right field as the first Ted Williams. But once you’ve come to terms with that reality, you’re left with a simple question: What happens next for the Red Sox?

The short answer is that it's time to get moving.

First, they’re sure to refocus on the goal that they’ve emphasized repeatedly since the season ended: finding front-line starting pitching. Now that Soto is off the table, the landscape looks much more settled, and several teams will be turning in earnest to the cream of the starting pitching crop: Max Fried and Corbin Burnes in free agency, Garrett Crochet on the trade market, and Roki Sasaki in the international free agent market. (To be clear, every team was already going to be in on Sasaki given the tiny size of his contract, but the PowerPoint decks with which teams are pitching him are undoubtedly being given some extra polish and a few additional slide transitions as you read this.) Sasaki will decide for his own reasons where he wants to play, but it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Red Sox coming away without one of either Fried, Burnes, or Crochet. They’re a marquee organization bursting with both talent and resources. They’ve got enough money to land both Fried and Burnes, and even if they come up empty, they’ve got more than enough prospect capital and young big-league talent to swing a deal for Crochet.

With Soto off the table and Tyler O’Neill signing in Baltimore, the Red Sox are still in need of a power bat. Whether or not you think Wilyer Abreu should be playing right field every day, Alex Cora’s decisions over the course of the 2024 season made it clear that he and the Red Sox think the young right fielder needs a platoon partner. Teoscar Hernández would make a lot of sense, both because he’s coming off an excellent season and because he’s now the clear top dog in an outfield market that is starting to look mighty thin. Behind Hernández, someone will have to take the chance that Jurickson Profar is somehow able to repeat his miracle 2024 season. Anthony Santander would make a lot of sense for the Red Sox as well. He’s a bad defender, but he’s a powerful a switch-hitter who hits righties and lefties pretty much the same. It’s easy to see him splitting his time between the outfield and DH.

The Boston roster also has a gaping hole at second base. It’s entirely possible that the Red Sox will let David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez handle the position to start the season and wait for either Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell to come up from Triple A and claim it. However, infield options like Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Gleyber Torres are still available. If the Sox can’t add their power bat in the outfield, signing Bregman and sliding him over to second base (which he’s reportedly said he’s amenable to) would solve that problem in bold fashion.

One thing that hasn’t changed: the Red Sox need a catcher. As things stand, Connor Wong is the only catcher on the roster, and the already patchy free agent market at the position is growing sparser by the second. Six different catchers have signed already. Carson Kelly and the 36-year-old Yasmani Grandal are the top options left, and that’s not a position the Red Sox want to find themselves in.

The Red Sox have missed out on their chance at adding one of the brightest (and now the highest-paid) stars in the galaxy, and it’s now crunch time, especially when it comes to free agent position players. The pitching market is still robust, but their chances of replacing the punch O'Neill supplied from the right side in 2024 are getting slimmer by the minute.

View full article

[moonslav59]

To me, the first priority has to be adding an ace or two high quality SP'ers.

Burnes or Fried (or a trade)

If we get two, without Burnes or Fried, I'm thinking Eovaldi and Crochet.

I top SP and a top RP'er might push us to the line of the bare minimum needed for our staff to improve, significantly.... Something like Fried and Hoffman or Nate and Scott.

This is the least we can do to come close to what is needed. We lost Pivetta, who some seem to undervalue. He's been a top 4 IP guy on the Sox for 4 straight seasons, while averaging a 2.3 bWAR per year. (Nate gave us 1.7 per year from 2019-2022, also 4 years.) We also lost the two best RP'ers we've had since Kimbrel in 2018. That's the best 2 in 6 years. Just to break even, we need to do a lot.

True, we are also, in a sense, adding Giolito, Fulmer and maybe much more time from Whitlock and a little more time from Slaten. Our AAA SP'er depth looks better than in a long time: Criswell, Priester, Fitts & Dobbins. If we add a top pen piece or two SP'ers and a decent RP, which would push Crawford to the pen, our minor league pen depth would look decent, assuming the MLB 8 would be _____, Chapman, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson. The AAA pen: Guerrero, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Fulmer, I Campbell, Booser, Mata.

Next, has to be adding a defensive catcher. This need not cost much and could be on a 1 year deal. Maybe Teel can be ready late 2025 or to start 2026.

The big RHB might have to be a luxury, but if we end up trading Casas, one of our best lefty on lefty batters, the loss of O'Neill will be multiplied. I have previously talked down the idea of signing Bregman, but I like what it would do to our defense. With a healthy Story at SS, our defense could go from bottom 5 to top 10- top 15 almost for certain.

We may need to count on a prospect or two to get us over the hump. That is never ideal, but even if we add Bregman, Fried, Estevez and Carson Kelly, we may still need Campbell or Anthony to rock the house.

 

[mvp 78]

What's next? Selling to the fanbase how waiting on the big 4 is their best bet going forward. 

[notin]

Signing Bregman, Manaea and probably (hopefully) Scott and trading for Crochet.  If they can’t get Bregman, then the Sox will try to get Luis Robert Jr. included in the Crochet deal.   I also think Arenado is still in play, albeit not so close for your top plan.

 

Im not wild about Bregman…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Signing Bregman, Manaea and probably (hopefully) Scott and trading for Crochet.  If they can’t get Bregman, then the Sox will try to get Luis Robert Jr. included in the Crochet deal.   I also think Arenado is still in play, albeit not so close for your top plan.

 

Im not wild about Bregman…

Not sure why you'd want to include Robert in a deal if the young core is OF strong. 

There is zero chance they are going to sign Scott to a long term agreement. It doesn't make much sense for a late inning reliever due to their volatility. 

Crochet is probably the only guy you listed that makes sense to me. Arenado makes sense only if the Cards are taking on Masa's contract. 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not sure why you'd want to include Robert in a deal if the young core is OF strong. 

There is zero chance they are going to sign Scott to a long term agreement. It doesn't make much sense for a late inning reliever due to their volatility. 

Crochet is probably the only guy you listed that makes sense to me. Arenado makes sense only if the Cards are taking on Masa's contract. 

An outfield of Robert-Duran-Anthony looks very strong on both sides.  Rafaela is probably best as an overpaid supersub.  Abreu is still trade fodder.

Long term deals for relievers are typically about 4 years, which is certainly worth it for a RP worth 7.6 bWAR in the past two years entering his age 30 season.  Let’s not pervade the myth that all relievers are volatile; it’s simply not true.

Arenado works to bolster the defense, but yes, either Yoshida (plus cash?) goes for him or another deal would need to be made elsewhere.

 

[sk7326]

Was fun to dream - and by all accounts the Sox really did try.  The Mets should have no regret about that deal.  

But now, let's land one of the big FA starters.  I favor Fried a bit since he is a bit less fastball reliant - which makes a 5ish year deal more tractable.  Obviously shoot your shot with Sasaki, but since that is a minor league deal, it's basically a pure recruiting play and who knows how that will go.  Burnes is great too.  I've evangelized about trying to see if Sandy Alcantara is gettable - even knowing he is coming off of TJS - and I still think that is a good idea.   Crochet would be terrific too, but I am not sure the prospect price makes sense.  

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

An outfield of Robert-Duran-Anthony looks very strong on both sides.  Rafaela is probably best as an overpaid supersub.  Abreu is still trade fodder.

Long term deals for relievers are typically about 4 years, which is certainly worth it for a RP worth 7.6 bWAR in the past two years entering his age 30 season.  Let’s not pervade the myth that all relievers are volatile; it’s simply not true.

Arenado works to bolster the defense, but yes, either Yoshida (plus cash?) goes for him or another deal would need to be made elsewhere.

 

To me, there's not much control left over Robert and the ChiSox will probably want too much for him after his 657 OPS year. He's not a 162 guy. He k's/whiffs too much and never walks. He wouldn't be the first guy who just completely fell off the map. 

Tanner Scott:

2021 -0.1 bWAR

2022 0.1 bWAR

Let's not pretend he's the mark of consistency. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Was fun to dream - and by all accounts the Sox really did try.  The Mets should have no regret about that deal.  

But now, let's land one of the big FA starters.  I favor Fried a bit since he is a bit less fastball reliant - which makes a 5ish year deal more tractable.  Obviously shoot your shot with Sasaki, but since that is a minor league deal, it's basically a pure recruiting play and who knows how that will go.  Burnes is great too.  I've evangelized about trying to see if Sandy Alcantara is gettable - even knowing he is coming off of TJS - and I still think that is a good idea.   Crochet would be terrific too, but I am not sure the prospect price makes sense.  

To me, I like Fried's stuff a little better and that he's a lefty, but he has greater health concerns. Today, I'm leaning towards Burnes. That may change tomorrow.  

[moonslav59]

I'm not high on Bregman, either. A trade for Arenado, where we add pieces to force Masas being included might work better.

I think the chances we sign Burnes or Scott are close to zero.

I'm not sure of our chances on Fried or Bregman, but they seem like the best we could possibly get.

More likely, we sign one from Manaea, Nate, Flaherty or Pivetta.

I doubt we sign offman, but maybe Estevez, Yates or Kittredge might be worth a try. ( K Jansen/C Martin?)

There are 2-3 defensive catchers still on the board: one is a must- or a trade for one.

Be prepared for this:

$70M/3 Manaea or a trade for Crochet

$70M/3 Teoscar or Walker

$15M/1 Yates Or $16M/1 Kittredge or $30M/3 Estevez

$4M/1 Carson Kelly

 

[mvp 78]

Kittredge should be WAY less than 16M. 5-6M? 

I think Crochet/Walker/Kittredge/Kelly is decent offseason, but they'll probably go cheaper than sign Kelly. 

[notin]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, there's not much control left over Robert and the ChiSox will probably want too much for him after his 657 OPS year. He's not a 162 guy. He k's/whiffs too much and never walks. He wouldn't be the first guy who just completely fell off the map. 

Tanner Scott:

2021 -0.1 bWAR

2022 0.1 bWAR

Let's not pretend he's the mark of consistency. 

I think you undervalue Robert based on his one bad season.  But there is a good chance that the White Sox expect to receive compensation for the 5 bWAR player from 2023 and not something more representative of his services.

Sure Scott was lesser a few years back, but signing a reliever for 4 years is a lot less risky than signing a starter for 6 or 7 or 10 or whatever they’re expecting these days.  Especially the starters the Sox sign.  Who was their last free agent SP that required a significant commitment and didn’t crap out almost immediately?

[notin]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kittredge should be WAY less than 16M. 5-6M? 

I think Crochet/Walker/Kittredge/Kelly is decent offseason, but they'll probably go cheaper than sign Kelly. 

Kittredge is fine if you limit him to a one year deal.  The guy has had so many arm arm issues in recent years, he’s going to have to learn how to throw left-handed soon if he wants to keep pitching…

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I think you undervalue Robert based on his one bad season.  But there is a good chance that the White Sox expect to receive compensation for the 5 bWAR player from 2023 and not something more representative of his services.

Sure Scott was lesser a few years back, but signing a reliever for 4 years is a lot less risky than signing a starter for 6 or 7 or 10 or whatever they’re expecting these days.  Especially the starters the Sox sign.  Who was their last free agent SP that required a significant commitment and didn’t crap out almost immediately?

And one injury plagued season at that

[redsoxrules]

I'm fine with Bregman as long as it's not a crazy deal. He's quite good defensively and I think he would mash that Green monster. I feel like it would be when Mike Lowell came here back in 06. 

 

I would prefer Bregman over Alonso. He has a lot of pop but he's basically a HR or a strikeout. His OBP is terrible for a power hitter like him .

[notin]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kittredge should be WAY less than 16M. 5-6M? 

I think Crochet/Walker/Kittredge/Kelly is decent offseason, but they'll probably go cheaper than sign Kelly. 

Walker is a good player who does help the defense, although I prefer upgrading third over first.  But I’d be happy with either one.

But whether the Sox go for Walker or Bregman or Alonso or Arenado, it does create the logjam that necessitates another move, most likely involving either Casas or Yoshida.  And coming off surgery with his contract, Yoshida is a much tougher move…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Tanner Scott:

2021 -0.1 bWAR

2022 0.1 bWAR

Let's not pretend he's the mark of consistency. 

0.1 every year!

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

I think you undervalue Robert based on his one bad season.  But there is a good chance that the White Sox expect to receive compensation for the 5 bWAR player from 2023 and not something more representative of his services.

Sure Scott was lesser a few years back, but signing a reliever for 4 years is a lot less risky than signing a starter for 6 or 7 or 10 or whatever they’re expecting these days.  Especially the starters the Sox sign.  Who was their last free agent SP that required a significant commitment and didn’t crap out almost immediately?

The underlined is the reason I don't trade for Robert. That and for all the times people will call him RobertS. 

The risk is entirely dependent upon the value the player provides. Not many relievers give 2 fWAR year in and year out. Any contract of 16M for 4 years is a losing proposition. With Burnes and Fried, there's actually a chance the dude shoves for a few years and earns the contract. 

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Was fun to dream - and by all accounts the Sox really did try.  The Mets should have no regret about that deal.  

But now, let's land one of the big FA starters.  I favor Fried a bit since he is a bit less fastball reliant - which makes a 5ish year deal more tractable.  Obviously shoot your shot with Sasaki, but since that is a minor league deal, it's basically a pure recruiting play and who knows how that will go.  Burnes is great too.  I've evangelized about trying to see if Sandy Alcantara is gettable - even knowing he is coming off of TJS - and I still think that is a good idea.   Crochet would be terrific too, but I am not sure the prospect price makes sense.  

by the time a Sasaki deal gets finalized all the other top P options will be gone. 

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, I like Fried's stuff a little better and that he's a lefty, but he has greater health concerns. Today, I'm leaning towards Burnes. That may change tomorrow.  

we are more than likely getting neither

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Kittredge should be WAY less than 16M. 5-6M? 

I think Crochet/Walker/Kittredge/Kelly is decent offseason, but they'll probably go cheaper than sign Kelly. 

My bad. I meant $16M/2. (MLBTR has $14M/2)

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we are more than likely getting neither

Agreed

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we are more than likely getting neither

I'm feeling the same.

The Yanks are going to need some PR damage control, and unlike JH, they care about their image.

The Dodgers are not done.

The Jays may bid on Bregman or a top pitcher.

Other teams have talked about spending more.

We need to see action not words.

[Hugh2]

Go back to the original plan.

Pitching pitching and more pitching. 

I have faith in the young kids locking down the position side of things.  But I have zero faith in the pitching being much better without outside help. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Go back to the original plan.

Pitching pitching and more pitching. 

I have faith in the young kids locking down the position side of things.  But I have zero faith in the pitching being much better without outside help. 

Bingo, except we need some defensive catcher on a 1 year deal- no biggie.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bingo, except we need some defensive catcher on a 1 year deal- no biggie.

Christian Vazquez.  StatCast still gives him good grades for pitch framing.  One year left at $10mill.

 

If the Twins want to shave some salary, Vazquez plus $3mill for RHP Zack Kelly (or some other nondescript 40 man arm) makes some sense for both teams.  Kelly isn’t awful or anything and he could handle some useful innings for the Twins.  But he also won’t be hard to replace in Boston…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Christian Vazquez.  StatCast still gives him good grades for pitch framing.  One year left at $10mill.

 

If the Twins want to shave some salary, Vazquez plus $3mill for RHP Zack Kelly (or some other nondescript 40 man arm) makes some sense for both teams.  Kelly isn’t awful or anything and he could handle some useful innings for the Twins.  But he also won’t be hard to replace in Boston…

I've never been a big fan of how Vaz works with the staff. Our other catchers almost always got better results.

Maybe he could add a bit of a salary dump aspect to a larger trade that brings back JH Duran, Ober or Ryan. Of course, Pablo could also be an option.

[a700hitter]

I like Luis Robert a lot, but aren’t there concerns whether he can stay on the field!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've never been a big fan of how Vaz works with the staff. Our other catchers almost always got better results.

Maybe he could add a bit of a salary dump aspect to a larger trade that brings back JH Duran, Ober or Ryan. Of course, Pablo could also be an option.

Call me a pessimist and based on previous off seasons I have every right to be, but I believe most of us are going to be disappointed with this off season also.

Personally I'm glad the SOX didn't get Soto. However, if the SOX don't acquire Fried, Burnes, or Crochet, I will consider this another failed off season.

BTW, I'm twice as glad the Yankems lost Soto. At least the two tool player  is no longer in the AL East. 

[a700hitter]

1 minute ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Call me a pessimist and based on previous off seasons I have every right to be, but I believe most of us are going to be disappointed with this off season also.

Personally I'm glad the SOX didn't get Soto. However, if the SOX don't acquire Fried, Burnes, or Crochet, I will consider this another failed off season.

BTW, I'm twice as glad the Yankems lost Soto. At least the overpaid  mercenary is no longer in the AL East. 

We need some offensive punch too.  The current offense on the roster will just not compete with other teams.  And there is a big fall off from Soto.  Betts looks like a bargain at this point.  That was a monumental mess up by the Red Sox.