Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I really don't think anyone is going to think they're "back" until they actually sign someone.  We know it, they know it, and then know we know it.  And I know that they know that we know it. 

No one is buying the bull s***. 

I will say this.  The team has repeated the mantra over the years that they would spend when they have a talented young core to build around.  For the past 5 years they've gone from bloated aging payroll with zero farm, to s***** team with zero farm, to s***** team with a good farm, to .500 ball club loaded with budding young talent, more on the way and payroll space. 

Even when they signed Devers, they said "this is the type of guy we want to sign" after failing to retain Bogaerts.  "type of guy" is young.  They have a young team and the opportunity to go after Soto, I think it's real and the crazy thing is if they do go out and spend this year, technically they will of ended up doing exactly what they've said they would do all along. 

The only thing is, even if they're 100% for real and ready to spend and build this team into a winner again.  That doesn't make them the favorite, at best that puts them on par with NY/NY/LA.  So even then I'd say their odds to land Soto are 25% at best. 

Now is when they should be spending. We'll see if they actually do it. I think the extensions they agreed to last year were dumb and were solely meant to appease fans.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Now is when they should be spending. We'll see if they actually do it. I think the extensions they agreed to last year were dumb and were solely meant to appease fans.

It's kind of a relief to see that others are even more cynical than me. 🙂

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Now is when they should be spending. We'll see if they actually do it. I think the extensions they agreed to last year were dumb and were solely meant to appease fans.

They make zero sense, I just don't understand why they extended Bello/Rafaela and gave them the money they did. 

I really really really like both those guys too, but you already controlled them for so long and I'm not sure how much upside is there to justify not taking advantage of their control years.  But I think Devers was fine. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's kind of a relief to see that others are even more cynical than me. 🙂

I'm optimistic that by the end of the offseason, we'll still be realistic.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm optimistic that by the end of the offseason, we'll still be realistic.

If they let us down this time, we'll all be ballistic.

[Duran Is The Man]

the Dodgers are all in on Soto. we have no chance.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Dodgers sign both Soto and Sasaki, I think it will impact the game itself in a bad way.  The other 29 owners will be pissed and they'll try to figure out how to address it in the next CBA.  Major, major yuck.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

They make zero sense, I just don't understand why they extended Bello/Rafaela and gave them the money they did. 

I really really really like both those guys too, but you already controlled them for so long and I'm not sure how much upside is there to justify not taking advantage of their control years.  But I think Devers was fine. 

They extended them for their fair market value if the players perform well. There was no cost savings. At worst, they have a larger CBT hit than they need to for a UTIL guy and a 4/5 starter. 😖 

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If the Dodgers sign both Soto and Sasaki, I think it will impact the game itself in a bad way.  The other 29 owners will be pissed and they'll try to figure out how to address it in the next CBA.  Major, major yuck.

The Dodgers owners put their money where their mouths are and all the other owners just sit there and look dumbfounded. Yeah, just do that dummies. 

[moonslav59]

I think Manny is a better comp than Papi, except for the L-R thing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the Dodgers are all in on Soto. we have no chance.

First thought: at least it keeps him out of the AL East. 

Second thought: might have to overpay for Teoscar, if he becomes a consolation prize for the other Soto losers.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Manny is a better comp than Papi, except for the L-R thing.

This whole thing started because we were comparing elite players WHEN they hit free agency, that's what makes Soto so unique. 

Manny was 29 when his contract with the Sox started. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This whole thing started because we were comparing elite players WHEN they hit free agency, that's what makes Soto so unique. 

Manny was 29 when his contract with the Sox started. 

Right.

I only meant as a player.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Right.

I only meant as a player.

Even then, Manny's age 22-25 season he put up 13.5 Bwar 13.6 Fwar.  Juan Soto put up 26 Bwar 24.6 Fwar

I think we should just stop trying to comp Soto. 

#want

[Bellhorn04]

Based on pure offensive numbers, Manny is a pretty good comp.  Without digging into it, I'm guessing his WAR took a pretty big hit from bad D.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Even then, Manny's age 22-25 season he put up 13.5 Bwar 13.6 Fwar.  Juan Soto put up 26 Bwar 24.6 Fwar

I think we should just stop trying to comp Soto. 

#want

Frank Robinson: 22.5 bWAR age 22-25

Ken Griffey Jr: 24.8 age 22-25

Eddie Matthews: 28 bWAR

Andruw Jones: 26.7 bWAR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Frank Robinson: 22.5 bWAR age 22-25

Ken Griffey Jr: 24.8 age 22-25

Eddie Matthews: 28 bWAR

Andruw Jones: 26.7 bWAR

Marcus Betts 35 bWAR age 21-25

Faaaack...

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Marcus Betts 35 bWAR age 21-25

Faaaack...

Yeah, but that's only because he's the true unicorn, a player who excels at everything...

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Based on pure offensive numbers, Manny is a pretty good comp.  Without digging into it, I'm guessing his WAR took a pretty big hit from bad D.

Ages 23-26:

Manny .957 OPS (143 OPS+)

Soto .926 OPS (160 OPS+)

Ages 27-37:

Manny 1.026 OPS (162 OPS+)

Soto: if he signs with us, I hope he ends up like Manny's 27-37 years.

[oldtimer]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Now is when they should be spending. We'll see if they actually do it. I think the extensions they agreed to last year were dumb and were solely meant to appease fans.

I was of the opinion that they should sign Soto, even at the outrageous numbers being talked about. I have changed my mind when I heard he wants a deal stretching over 15 years.  The risk is just too high when taking a commitment of that length. If the Red Sox are to spend, lets hope they do so wisely and get value for their outlays.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I was of the opinion that they should sign Soto, even at the outrageous numbers being talked about. I have changed my mind when I heard he wants a deal stretching over 15 years.  The risk is just too high when taking a commitment of that length. If the Red Sox are to spend, lets hope they do so wisely and get value for their outlays.

It's going to be at least 10 years. What's another 5 at that point? 

[moonslav59]

15 years goes to age 40. Maybe the last 2-3 years will be a burden- maybe not.

If it takess 15: do it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

15 years goes to age 40. Maybe the last 2-3 years will be a burden- maybe not.

Probably not, to old fans like most of us -- who may not have enough gray matter to know the difference or even care by then.

But if in the next decade, Soto continues to do what he does -- lead teams to the World Series -- it would be worth it (for whatever lucidity we have left). Ok, I'm going to go have some tea, now... or a pint.

[mvp 78]

15 years of pints please.

[moonslav59]

Hell, let's go to age 41 and a 16 year deal!

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hell, let's go to age 41 and a 16 year deal!

15 might be the max before MLB starts to consider it a tax dodge (AAV spreader).

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

15 might be the max before MLB starts to consider it a tax dodge (AAV spreader).

He's 26, so maybe they let it slide.

[Hugh2]

Right, so there’s a few examples of elite players here and there, still makes it rare.  And yet, even in those examples said player is 28 or older, not 26.  Hence, one of the reasons Soto is so different.  Guys typically hit FA in the middle to the end of their primes….not at the very beginning of it.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Right, so there’s a few examples of elite players here and there, still makes it rare.  And yet, even in those examples said player is 28 or older, not 26.  Hence, one of the reasons Soto is so different.  Guys typically hit FA in the middle to the end of their primes….not at the very beginning of it.

I do think the age benefit might get overplayed just a wee bit in some cases...Soto is young but he's also played a lot of MLB games, been through the grind of long seasons, hasn't missed many games...all that might age you just a bit in itself.  

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I do think the age benefit might get overplayed just a wee bit in some cases...Soto is young but he's also played a lot of MLB games, been through the grind of long seasons, hasn't missed many games...all that might age you just a bit in itself.  

I don’t believe that, and if I did I’d have an easier time buying it for a pitcher.  Having a guy for 2 years in his prime longer is a pretty big deal. 
 

there’s a hundred different ways to skin a cat, and there’s certainly an offseason without Soto that leads to a deep 2025 playoff run. 

but it’s never a bad ideal going after a guy like Juan Soto.