Rumor: Could the Rangers and Red Sox Tango?

[Randy Red Sox]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm sure his highly valued, I think the CWS would just prefer getting an arm in return rather than a SS with injury concerns. 

that takes us out of the mix then

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not enough to score an impact arm IMO. 

In conjunction with Mayer and Casas, I think he has enough to get the deal done, but yes, mayer's health concerns might be too much for many Gms.

I do worry about trading Fitts when his stock may be low.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

that takes us out of the mix then

I believe so!

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

that takes us out of the mix then

You never know high highly some teams might value our arms.

Would you include Crawford in a trade for Crochet?

Mayer, Crawford and Abreu for Crochet and Roberts?

Casas, Crawford, DHam and Abreu? (add Fitts over DHam?)

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We do need an ace, and I agree we should trade for one rather than spend. 

I'd keep Duran over Casas, easily, but Casas alone, does not get us a solid SP'er, let alone an ace. (Duran would get us a better pitcher than Casas, by far.)

I'd see what we can get for Casas, Abreu, DHam and Dobbins/Wink.

Don’t we have an ace?

 

Houck was 14th in fWAR in MLB and 7th in the AL (ahead of Burnes) in his first year as a full time starter.  I imagine that qualifies, right?

[notin]

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Please name the teams that don't need a pitcher like this.

Or the teams that are willing to give one up…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm sure his highly valued, I think the CWS would just prefer getting an arm in return rather than a SS with injury concerns. 

I doubt the White Sox will get a better offer than the #7 overall prospect in MLB for 2 years of Crochet, whose not without injury concerns of his own…

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Don’t we have an ace?

 

Houck was 14th in fWAR in MLB and 7th in the AL (ahead of Burnes) in his first year as a full time starter.  I imagine that qualifies, right?

He's been in BOS since 2020, but pitched 41% of his innings last season. I'd like to see him replicate last year before I crown him an ace. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's been in BOS since 2020, but pitched 41% of his innings last season. I'd like to see him replicate last year before I crown him an ace. 

Me, too, but many pitchers we may consider an "ace" have had some sort of issues over recent years, too.

deGrom is certainly an ace, but I'd rather have Houck, so it's kind of subjective.

I like to think of the top 30 SP'ers as "aces," but I'm not sure about what sample size to use (1 year, 2 years, 3 years or a mix of all?) and what stat/metric to use (WAR, ERA-, xFIP, OPS Against or a mix of these.)

If you created a list of all these sample sizes and all these criteria, some pitchers would be on most of them, but not 30 of them. I guess you could see who is on the most top 30 on these lists, and take the top 30, but a pitcher who did not pitch 3 years ago might get dinged out.

 

[moonslav59]

I'm curious to know how each of us view the amount of aces in MLB, right now.

Here is a list of the top 185 SP'ers with 100+ IP since 2023, in order by fWAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2024&stats=sta&qual=100

I'd say the top 12 are, for sure (on this list.) After those 12, I see another 8-10 I would easily call an ace. I'd say the minimum might be 22, and maybe I could go up to around 30.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm curious to know how each of us view the amount of aces in MLB, right now.

Here is a list of the top 185 SP'ers with 100+ IP since 2023, in order by fWAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2024&stats=sta&qual=100

I'd say the top 12 are, for sure (on this list.) After those 12, I see another 8-10 I would easily call an ace. I'd say the minimum might be 22, and maybe I could go up to around 30.

I got to 24 guys that were clearly better than Houck IMO. I guess that would be the ace tier? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I got to 24 guys that were clearly better than Houck IMO. I guess that would be the ace tier? 

Sounds about right. I agreed with your point about Houck needing to prove he's an ace, beyond a year. MLB history is full of pitchers who had just one really good or "ace-like" season. I think he can and will do it, but it needs to be done.

[Larry Cook]

If bres-slow goes hard after crochet and he leaks it to the press, is that enough to get Seattle or Pittsburgh interested in trading young starting pitching for some of our really talented hitting prospects????  

[Deja Doh]

There are a number of FA pitchers besides Burns.  Freddy Peralta is good.  Max Fried, Blake Snell, even the game 1 World Series starters Jack Flaherty and Gerrit Cole.

Juan Soto is the star of the FA.  Add in Bellinger, Santander, Bregman, Adames, T Hernández, Alonso...  Go get someone.

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

There are a number of FA pitchers besides Burns.  Freddy Peralta is good.  Max Fried, Blake Snell, even the game 1 World Series starters Jack Flaherty and Gerrit Cole.

Juan Soto is the star of the FA.  Add in Bellinger, Santander, Bregman, Adames, T Hernández, Alonso...  Go get someone.

I hope we get none of those you added. To me, from this list, only Burnes, Cole and Fried jump out at me.

Flaherty and Tanner Scott would be okay, along with a solid catcher and LH RP'er, added somehow.

[Nick]

Getting back to Casas.

I would wait another year to trade Casas, if at all.

We'd be trading Casas at lower value than same time last year.

I would expect him to have much better year in 2025.

At the conclusion of 2025, he's still be under team control for 3 years. That's enough time to get back a decent starter, again assuming he has a break out year.

Why is everyone so low on him?

 

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, Nick said:

Getting back to Casas.

I would wait another year to trade Casas, if at all.

We'd be trading Casas at lower value than same time last year.

I would expect him to have much better year in 2025.

At the conclusion of 2025, he's still be under team control for 3 years. That's enough time to get back a decent starter, again assuming he has a break out year.

Why is everyone so low on him?

 

To me, it's not about being "low" on Casas: it's about trying to determine who we can or should trade to get a good pitcher. We have to give something to get something good in return. Casas may be the lowest value as a centerpiece of a big trade out of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel and Duran, so I can see why waiting on him makes sense, but here are some reasons to choose him over others:

1. Story is such a health risk that keeping Mayer over Casas makes sense.

2. Anthony has the highest ceiling of anyone, except maybe Duran.

3. Good ctahcers are so hard to find, that keeping Teel makes sense.

4. Campbell is the only RHB out of all on this list.

5. Duran has already proven he is a top notch 5 tool player.

6. Trading Casas allows Devers to move to 1B and improve the defense at 3B and maybe/likely 1B, too.

Nobody wants to trade Casas, but we want a really good pitcher more than anything else. Yes, it's easy to just say, "JH can afford to spend on pitching," but until I see it, I'm thinking what is the best trade we can make to get one. What player can we part with that has the least negative effect on the roster. Part of what goes into determining this is who do we already have in the system that can replace who we give up.

Trading a prospect seems easiest, since they do not currently have a role on the big club that would need replacing, and the big 3 have higher trade value than Casas, but their upside potential and positional value is more important than a poor fielding 1Bman, IMO. To me, Devers should be at 1B (75%) and DH 20% and 3B 5%, while Casas DH's 75% and plays 1B 25%. That makes the other chocies, who actually play important positions and well, between choices to keep, IMO.

 

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope we get none of those you added. To me, from this list, only Burnes, Cole and Fried jump out at me.

Flaherty and Tanner Scott would be okay, along with a solid catcher and LH RP'er, added somehow.

Cole would have to opt out of 4 years $144 mill.  But even if he does, the Yankees still have the option of keeping him for one more year at $36mill…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Cole would have to opt out of 4 years $144 mill.  But even if he does, the Yankees still have the option of keeping him for one more year at $36mill…

Yup.

 

[notin]

16 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

There are a number of FA pitchers besides Burns.  Freddy Peralta is good.  Max Fried, Blake Snell, even the game 1 World Series starters Jack Flaherty and Gerrit Cole.

And Nick Martinez…

[Nick]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, it's not about being "low" on Casas: it's about trying to determine who we can or should trade to get a good pitcher. We have to give something to get something good in return. Casas may be the lowest value as a centerpiece of a big trade out of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel and Duran, so I can see why waiting on him makes sense, but here are some reasons to choose him over others:

1. Story is such a health risk that keeping Mayer over Casas makes sense.

2. Anthony has the highest ceiling of anyone, except maybe Duran.

3. Good ctahcers are so hard to find, that keeping Teel makes sense.

4. Campbell is the only RHB out of all on this list.

5. Duran has already proven he is a top notch 5 tool player.

6. Trading Casas allows Devers to move to 1B and improve the defense at 3B and maybe/likely 1B, too.

Nobody wants to trade Casas, but we want a really good pitcher more than anything else. Yes, it's easy to just say, "JH can afford to spend on pitching," but until I see it, I'm thinking what is the best trade we can make to get one. What player can we part with that has the least negative effect on the roster. Part of what goes into determining this is who do we already have in the system that can replace who we give up.

Trading a prospect seems easiest, since they do not currently have a role on the big club that would need replacing, and the big 3 have higher trade value than Casas, but their upside potential and positional value is more important than a poor fielding 1Bman, IMO. To me, Devers should be at 1B (75%) and DH 20% and 3B 5%, while Casas DH's 75% and plays 1B 25%. That makes the other chocies, who actually play important positions and well, between choices to keep, IMO.

 

I very much see your logic. I'm just skeptical how much we can get for Casas in the winter of 2024 vs 2025.

It does make sense to place all of our future 'stars' in their slotted positions. 

I like Campbell at 2B. A power bat with speed at 2B is very valuable in my mind. We can add another power right handed bat at 3B that can play better defense than Devers.

I guess the question I have this winter is will the ownership group do enough or is it another year inching closer to 'all out' for 2026?

 

[moonslav59]

I would not hand Casas away, and I get the idea that we could be "selling low" on him, if we trade him, this winter.  The package included with Casas would have to be better and or more players involved. I'm wondering what Casas, Abreu, DHam plus Dobbins could get back.

Here is the possible team we could have without Casas and Abreu:

C: Wong, __add__ (Teel)

1B: Devers, Romy/Wong (Meidroth?)

2B: Campbell or Mayer or a Grissom/DHam platoon

SS: Story (Mayer)

3B: Mayer or Campbell or Grissom (Meidroth)

LF: Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran

RF Anthony

DH: Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon

I'm not sure this is much of a step down from one with Casas, if the kids come through.

 

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

 

 

[moonslav59]

As for free agents, Soto is the prize, but i give us less than 1% chance of signing him. We have a bunch of OF'ers and the Yanks, Dodgers and others will offer a ton and a half for him.

Here is who I'd like to see us go after:

A: Burnes, Fried, Tanner Scott

B: Flaherty, N Martinez, Peralta, Carlos Estevez & C Holmes (RP) Nate, Higashioka, Adames (if we trade Mayer)

C: Montgomery, Wacha, Manaea & Kikuchi  (C+) Snell (Just not that high on him), Bieber (tired of injury-prone pitchers) Roki Sasaki, Severino, Danny Jansen or d'Arnaud (on 1 year deals), H-S Kim (trade Mayer) M Kelly, Pivetta, Gibson, Verlander, Morton, Heaney

D: Carson Kelly, Scherzer,  Bregman (too up and down and more down, recently)

F (good but not a fit) Santander & Teoscar H, Alonso & Walker (unless we trade Casas), Bellinger & O'Neill, G Torres

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trading Casas this winter may actually be selling high. For a power hitter, such a core injury -- that is either brought on by or aggravated from swinging too hard -- doesn't seem to be easy to fix or prevent from recurring. 

Maybe ever. Maybe it continues to plague him next season, and then the Red Sox will be forced to sell low.

Fans will just have to trust Boston's medical team and the decision to try to extend Casas... or deal this still-valuable chip, and replace him.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure this is much of a step down from one with Casas, if the kids come through.

Right, but that's an enormous qualifier when you're talking about 4 kids that have never even played in an MLB game.