A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox tanking the season already? 

You think otherwise?

It looks like another "play if halfway" or try and give the perception we are trying to compete, while falling short of being a true competitor.

My point about Grichuk and then trading Abreu to fill another need was not a tank move, unless he was traded for prospects, which I did give as one of 3 options. (We could also flip the prospects from Abreu for a catcher or RP'er)

I'm not for tanking, this year. My position has been clear as day: The window should begin in 2025. We should not wait until even 2026.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Santander just signed with the Jays for 5/90.

FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

It’s all part of the plan to go “full throttle”. 
What a disgusting franchise this team has turned into.

Another last place finish here we come!

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You think otherwise?

It looks like another "play if halfway" or try and give the perception we are trying to compete, while falling short of being a true competitor.

My point about Grichuk and then trading Abreu to fill another need was not a tank move, unless he was traded for prospects, which I did give as one of 3 options. (We could also flip the prospects from Abreu for a catcher or RP'er)

I'm not for tanking, this year. My position has been clear as day: The window should begin in 2025. We should not wait until even 2026.

I don't think they are tanking, but I think they aren't really trying for a playoff spot. Is that punting? They aren't going for last place, but a respectable 3rd. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

Blue Jays can pack on lots of offseason talent and still end up underperforming year after year. 

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think they are tanking, but I think they aren't really trying for a playoff spot. Is that punting? They aren't going for last place, but a respectable 3rd. 

I think they'd like to make the playoffs.  But I think the financial bottom line has clearly become their dominant focus.  

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/19/2025 at 6:29 PM, moonslav59 said:

You think, if we sign Grichuk, we trade Abreu for a C, RP or prospect?

no

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think they'd like to make the playoffs.  But I think the financial bottom line has clearly become their dominant focus.  

That has been the story since letting Kimbrel and Kelly go after 2018, and doing nothing to replace them. They also came close to trading Betts during 2019, and it's not changed since then. Counting 2025, we are now 7 years running on this top priority.

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking STL is so desperate to dump Arenado, maybe we end up getting him, and we end up getting a second piece to sweeten the deal. (Helsley, Herrera or Contreras?) 

Or, we just get them to pay a big chunk or take back Yoshida, and we pay some, but not as much as we would trading him by himself. I have no idea who STL wants, and I'm sure they don't want Yoshida. Getting someone like Helsley, Herrera or Contreras won't be cheap.

Contreras makes $18M x 3 (same as Yoshida,) so maybe Arenado & Contreras for Yoshida, Fitts, Cespedes & Valera. Maybe, no money changes hands, so basically Yoshida cancels Contreras, but maybe STL would still pay some.

I'm not a fan of Arenado, but dumping Yoshida and getting Contreras, Herrera or Helsley could be a difference maker, and our D would improve.

[moonslav59]

I could see the Sox signing Yates, since he turns 38 before opening day and would take a one year deal.

Jansen turns 38 in September, so maybe he could still be a late signee on a one year deal.

I'm not sure how much either of these two would move the needle, but at least both have experience as closers, and pitched, last year.

We probably will not be adding a RHB, unless it's someone like Grichuk, but we already have Refsnyder.

Could it be Yates and call it a day? (Could it be we are done with any meaningful additions?)

[notin]

16 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

Big deal.  Steamer couldn’t predict last year’s results…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

We're still in the Elite Eight!

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We're still in the Elite Eight!

You crack me up.

I'm just hoping a top 2-3 group of SP'ers will carry us into the playoffs, where I've often heard, "all bets are off."

[mvp 78]

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

It's great the Red Sox could have the best ERA.

The problem is they could also lead in URA. Again.

[moonslav59]

I could see top 3 in SP'er ERA+ but not overall pitching staff combined.

[moonslav59]

I do see somewhat of a contradiction in my lifelong philosophy of what makes the Sox a top contender.

I have always felt that we are at our best when we have a better rotation, especially 2-3 really good ones, along with a solid defense, especially up the middle. I've always hated the strategy of trying to build up the rotation by replacing the #4 or #5 with a supposedly better #4/5. My mantra has always been to "build up the rotation from the top, not the bottom."

Also, for the past few years, when many have been saying we need 2 SP'ers, I was calling for 3. When many said 1, I said 2. Well, since the start of last season, we have added Crochet, Buehler and essentially Giolito and depth like Priester, plus a more well-known Criswell. Yes, we lost Pivetta and moved Whitlock to the pen, so one could view the net addition as just 1-2, but to me, it seems like more than that.

Crochet is a legit #1 or #2, despite some lingering questions about durability and repeatability.

Buehler is the real deal, if healthy and fully recovered from major surgery.

Giolito is an unknown, but he is not old, and had 3 really good seasons, not too long ago.

Houck and Crawford answered the durability questions we had, last winter, but of course doubts still linger. Houck proved a lot more, while Crawford might have pitched better in 2023 than 2024. Bello did not improve his standing, but he has shown he can take the ball every 5 days with 58 GS in the past 2 years.

For the first time, in a long time, we have 5 pretty solid SP'ers with better than average AAA depth in Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non 40 man Fulmer. This should be enough to make us a contender, based on my lifelong beliefs, but for several reasons, my doubts and pessimism over certain aspects of this team have squashed or diminished those hopes.

Our catching and corner IF defense is about as bad as it could ever be. I'm not sure we have ever had a worse defensive C-1B-3B group, since I started following the Sox in the early 70's. Our middle IF and OF D look fine or better, as long as Story is playing, and these positions, other than catcher are more importnat than 1B and 3B, so maybe I'm overblowing how bad our team D really is. Mayer, Campbell and Anthony are no slouches on D, so the future does look brighter. The more DHam plays 2B over Grissom, the better 2B D is. The more Story plays SS D over Rafaela & Co, the better. The more OF D Rafaela plays, the better. Duran-Rafaela-Abreu is a better OF Defense than one with O'Neill and Ref playing 161 OF games, not to mention 15 OF games by Romy, Dalbec, Wong, Valdez, Westbrook & Yoshida. There is hope for improved defense. Bregman at 3B would help, a lot.

That leaves the pen. We had the worst pen in MLB, over the second half of 2024, and we lost Jansen and Martin. We also lost and equal amount of pen IP by scrubs and failed relievers like Garcia, Sims and others. We added Chapman, Hendriks, Whitlock and Wilson. We might see Crawford, Fitts, Criswell or Priester take some major innings in the Sox pen. To me, we have a very deep pen, that stretches 8-10 deep into the minors, but we lack a true lock-down closer- something every Sox champion had, this century.

Should I really be so discouraged by just 3-4 major weaknesses? (Closer, Catcher D, corner IF D and poor RH'd batting vs LHP'ing?

[dgalehouse]

Fangraphs.com is a three man operation consisting of founder and president, Charley B. Fangraph, Wilbur M. Bates and Harold S. Nerdwell Jr.  The three buddies are Dartmouth grads who have not been able to make it in the business world. The three amigos, as they like to be called, meet daily at Charlie's house where they get out the computer and indulge in their passion for statistics and other various data. They like to issue " projections"  and numerical evaluations of baseball players. So far they have been able to make a few bucks doing this. They are basically nice guys, harmless but not to be taken too seriously.

[moonslav59]

Weird fascination with metric makers.

[notin]

On 1/20/2025 at 3:53 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

I think they'd like to make the playoffs.  But I think the financial bottom line has clearly become their dominant focus.  

That’s becoming the case with too many teams.

I don’t like the financial buckshot the Dodgers are doing, but not because the Sox won’t; I don’t like it because too many teams can’t.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Sacramento, Tampa, etc are running out of reasons to bother trying any more.  

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I do see somewhat of a contradiction in my lifelong philosophy of what makes the Sox a top contender.

I have always felt that we are at our best when we have a better rotation, especially 2-3 really good ones, along with a solid defense, especially up the middle. I've always hated the strategy of trying to build up the rotation by replacing the #4 or #5 with a supposedly better #4/5. My mantra has always been to "build up the rotation from the top, not the bottom."

Also, for the past few years, when many have been saying we need 2 SP'ers, I was calling for 3. When many said 1, I said 2. Well, since the start of last season, we have added Crochet, Buehler and essentially Giolito and depth like Priester, plus a more well-known Criswell. Yes, we lost Pivetta and moved Whitlock to the pen, so one could view the net addition as just 1-2, but to me, it seems like more than that.

Crochet is a legit #1 or #2, despite some lingering questions about durability and repeatability.

Buehler is the real deal, if healthy and fully recovered from major surgery.

Giolito is an unknown, but he is not old, and had 3 really good seasons, not too long ago.

Houck and Crawford answered the durability questions we had, last winter, but of course doubts still linger. Houck proved a lot more, while Crawford might have pitched better in 2023 than 2024. Bello did not improve his standing, but he has shown he can take the ball every 5 days with 58 GS in the past 2 years.

For the first time, in a long time, we have 5 pretty solid SP'ers with better than average AAA depth in Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and non 40 man Fulmer. This should be enough to make us a contender, based on my lifelong beliefs, but for several reasons, my doubts and pessimism over certain aspects of this team have squashed or diminished those hopes.

Our catching and corner IF defense is about as bad as it could ever be. I'm not sure we have ever had a worse defensive C-1B-3B group, since I started following the Sox in the early 70's. Our middle IF and OF D look fine or better, as long as Story is playing, and these positions, other than catcher are more importnat than 1B and 3B, so maybe I'm overblowing how bad our team D really is. Mayer, Campbell and Anthony are no slouches on D, so the future does look brighter. The more DHam plays 2B over Grissom, the better 2B D is. The more Story plays SS D over Rafaela & Co, the better. The more OF D Rafaela plays, the better. Duran-Rafaela-Abreu is a better OF Defense than one with O'Neill and Ref playing 161 OF games, not to mention 15 OF games by Romy, Dalbec, Wong, Valdez, Westbrook & Yoshida. There is hope for improved defense. Bregman at 3B would help, a lot.

That leaves the pen. We had the worst pen in MLB, over the second half of 2024, and we lost Jansen and Martin. We also lost and equal amount of pen IP by scrubs and failed relievers like Garcia, Sims and others. We added Chapman, Hendriks, Whitlock and Wilson. We might see Crawford, Fitts, Criswell or Priester take some major innings in the Sox pen. To me, we have a very deep pen, that stretches 8-10 deep into the minors, but we lack a true lock-down closer- something every Sox champion had, this century.

Should I really be so discouraged by just 3-4 major weaknesses? (Closer, Catcher D, corner IF D and poor RH'd batting vs LHP'ing?

sox will be better in 2025 due to the SP additions and the lack of moves from the rest of the AL East

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s becoming the case with too many teams.

I don’t like the financial buckshot the Dodgers are doing, but not because the Sox won’t; I don’t like it because too many teams can’t.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Sacramento, Tampa, etc are running out of reasons to bother trying any more.  

It looks more and more like even the rest of the top 10 spending teams can't keep up with the Dodgers, how can the middle 10 think they have a shot?

Forget the bottom 10. They've been toast for decades.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

sox will be better in 2025 due to the SP additions and the lack of moves from the rest of the AL East

Agreed, but taking the next step seems beyond our imagination.

[notin]

On 1/20/2025 at 1:28 PM, harmony said:

FWIW with the signing of Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have moved past the Red Sox into seventh place in the American League in projected 2025 WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

 

These projections have Ernie Clement outperforming Trevor Story and Bo Bichette (off a 0.3 fWAR season) outperforming Jarren Duran (off of a 6.7 fWAR season)…

[moonslav59]

Word is the Tigers and Bregman are at a "standstill." 

Expect a signing, at any moment.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Top Free Agents still on the market:

3. Bregman ***

7. Alonso

8. Flaherty

16. Profar

22. Estevez ***

25. Heaney

28. Pivetta

31. Quintana

33. Scherzer

41. Gibson

42. Kahnle

43. H-S Kim

47. Robertson ***

49. Bader

50. Turnbull

Honorable Mention that might fit w Sox*** :

K Jansen, P Sewald, C Martin, R Grichuk

[harmony]

6 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Fangraphs.com is a three man operation consisting of founder and president, Charley B. Fangraph, Wilbur M. Bates and Harold S. Nerdwell Jr.  The three buddies are Dartmouth grads who have not been able to make it in the business world. The three amigos, as they like to be called, meet daily at Charlie's house where they get out the computer and indulge in their passion for statistics and other various data. They like to issue " projections"  and numerical evaluations of baseball players. So far they have been able to make a few bucks doing this. They are basically nice guys, harmless but not to be taken too seriously.

On a less humorous note, a list of current and former FanGraphs staff members (some of whom left when hired by MLB front offices):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FanGraphs

Scroll down.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, notin said:

These projections have Ernie Clement outperforming Trevor Story and Bo Bichette (off a 0.3 fWAR season) outperforming Jarren Duran (off of a 6.7 fWAR season)…

See, the projections aren't corrupted by Recency Effect!

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, notin said:

That’s becoming the case with too many teams.

I don’t like the financial buckshot the Dodgers are doing, but not because the Sox won’t; I don’t like it because too many teams can’t.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Sacramento, Tampa, etc are running out of reasons to bother trying any more.  

When was the last time the A's actually tried? Pittsburgh hasn't had a top 20 payroll since Cots started tracking in 2000. The Rays are currently too busy tanking their stadium deal to be bothered with anything else. They'll be out of Tampa sooner rather than later. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR Top Free Agents still on the market:

3. Bregman ***

7. Alonso

8. Flaherty

16. Profar

22. Estevez ***

25. Heaney

28. Pivetta

31. Quintana

33. Scherzer

41. Gibson

42. Kahnle

43. H-S Kim

47. Robertson ***

49. Bader

50. Turnbull

Honorable Mention that might fit w Sox*** :

K Jansen, P Sewald, C Martin, R Grichuk

Wasn't Pivetta going to get a big deal?