A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Every offseason we think we're going to be healthier than we were last year.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Is it?  The virtual heart of our offense, Devers, Casas and Story, all had severe injuries last year.

It's Devers I'm really worried about.  Our offense was pathetic from mid-August on, which coincided with Raffy's offensive disappearance.  The inflammation must have been pretty awful to do what it did to him as a hitter.  

 

Yes...it is. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes...it is. 

Well, you're not really explaining or backing anything up.  Did every other team have a key guy like Devers finish the season on the IL, and key guys like Casas and Story play a combined total of 89 games?

Did every other team's offense fall off the planet the last 6 weeks of the season?

 

[Bellhorn04]

The only legit reasons to have a shred of optimism about our 2025 offense are Anthony and Campbell. 

The rest is just Pollyannalytics and wishcasting.

They subtracted the 3rd best hitter from an offense that collapsed in mid-August and didn't replace him.  Our best RH hitters from last year have names like Refsnyder and Wong.    

Go Roman, go Kristian!  🙃

 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, you're not really explaining or backing anything up.  Did every other team have a key guy like Devers finish the season on the IL, and key guys like Casas and Story play a combined total of 89 games?

Did every other team's offense fall off the planet the last 6 weeks of the season?

 

Red Sox players missed a total of 1,928 games last year. 

Dodgers, who won the series, players missed a total of 2,158 games last year.  Although both the Red Sox and Dodgers were both at the top in terms of total games missed with very different results. 

Guys get hurt all over baseball, I don't think that really needs much explaining nor does that mean anything about the Sox falling apart down the stretch.  It happens, that doesn't mean the team is devoid of any talent is going to suck in perpetuity.  You don't guys like Duran/Abreu/Houck + are good? and would look much better with rookie elite talent infusion + seasoned veterans who can still play? E.G. Anthony + Bregman?

I don't really think it needs to be explained that all teams deal with injuries. 

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only legit reasons to have a shred of optimism about our 2025 offense are Anthony and Campbell. 

So Duran sucks, Abreu sucks, Devers sucks, Story is guaranteed to be injured again and suck, Casas sucks and anyone else they trade or sign for this offseason is going to suck?

I'd call that pessimism. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Red Sox players missed a total of 1,928 games last year. 

Dodgers, who won the series, players missed a total of 2,158 games last year.  Although both the Red Sox and Dodgers were both at the top in terms of total games missed with very different results. 

Guys get hurt all over baseball, I don't think that really needs much explaining nor does that mean anything about the Sox falling apart down the stretch.  It happens, that doesn't mean the team is devoid of any talent is going to suck in perpetuity.  You don't guys like Duran/Abreu/Houck + are good? and would look much better with rookie elite talent infusion + seasoned veterans who can still play? E.G. Anthony + Bregman?

I don't really think it needs to be explained that all teams deal with injuries. 

Key players, Hugh.  Compare to Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, Teoscar.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Every offseason we think we're going to be healthier than we were last year.

Sale had to leave to get away from the bad injury juju that has enveloped Boston the past few years.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Key players, Hugh.  Compare to Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, Teoscar.

Yeah I get that, but you do realize theres a very large concept of luck involved.  Sox lost 28 players last year and the Dodgers lost 26.  

 

The Red Sox could lose 20 players next year and end up with a worse record. 

Or they could lose 30 players and win the division.  You can't really determine whether your GOOD players or your BAD players are going to get injured. 

[Hugh2]

It was key players, but if it was anything real, and not just bad luck, the Sox would have a much much larger pool of players down than other teams. 

They lost 2 more players than the world series winners, negligible in my book.  So that squashes that theory flat. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So Duran sucks, Abreu sucks, Devers sucks, Story is guaranteed to be injured again and suck, Casas sucks and anyone else they trade or sign for this offseason is going to suck?

I'd call that pessimism. 

Except I didn't say Devers or Casas suck.  

[Bellhorn04]

What I'm really talking about is the prospect of more willful negligence by our leaders.  They lose O'Neill from an offense that ended the year looking awful, and they just sit on their hands about it.  It's the tight-fistedness continuing to rear its ugly head.  Not blaming Breslow.  It sure looks like he's under serious constraints.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Chapman is pitching the seventh? Great.

If Chapman is pitching the eighth? Ok. 

If Chapman is pitching the ninth? Change the channel. 

Well said.

[moonslav59]

Mets sign Minter.

Pirates give us non 40 man roster LHP Matt McShane for Shugart.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What I'm really talking about is the prospect of more willful negligence by our leaders.  They lose O'Neill from an offense that ended the year looking awful, and they just sit on their hands about it.  It's the tight-fistedness continuing to rear its ugly head.  Not blaming Breslow.  It sure looks like he's under serious constraints.

So far, yes. I agree. I would not say Grichuk makes up for O'Neill, but it would be a step. It looks like we will be relying on health, players improving as they near peak prime and a couple platoons to make up the rest and then some.

Hope is NOT a plan.

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Except I didn't say Devers or Casas suck.  

Ok, let me officially state I'm not saying you explicitly said that but you did imply it, maybe not with intent but you did when say things like "The only legit reasons to have a shred of optimism about our 2025 offense are Anthony and Campbell."

Which by the way......is one of the reasons I'm optimistic. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Every offseason we think we're going to be healthier than we were last year.

Last year, we did not have more than our fair share of injuries, so expecting less is asking for a lot, IMO.

We had guys that we signed, already injured (Hendriks & Fulmer) and some we knew in plenty of time to do something about before opening day (Giolito,) but other than them, we lost Whitlock, Story & Casas for a long time and Devers for a month plus a month of playing hurt. After Gio went down, our rotation stayed pretty healthy (except Whitlock.) Our pen was pretty healthy: they just sucked. Slaten & Martin missed some time.

I like our depth better, this year.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Last year, we did not have more than our fair share of injuries, so expecting less is asking for a lot, IMO.

We had guys that we signed, already injured (Hendriks & Fulmer) and some we knew in plenty of time to do something about before opening day (Giolito,) but other than them, we lost Whitlock, Story & Casas for a long time and Devers for a month plus a month of playing hurt. After Gio went down, our rotation stayed pretty healthy (except Whitlock.) Our pen was pretty healthy: they just sucked. Slaten & Martin missed some time.

I like our depth better, this year.

and it's going to happen again this year. maybe not the same guys, but it's gonna happen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Come on, we're not really comparing Dodgers to Red Sox.

LA lost its top two pitchers in games started for the entire postseason -- Stone and Glasnow (not to mention several others pencilled into the rotation a year ago, including their Hall of Fame lefty) -- and team closer and saves leader Phillips for the entire World Series...

... and still won it all.

It isn't luck that the Dodgers organization constantly, consistently provides a wealth of talent to legitimately contend for rings every single year.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Come on, we're not really comparing Dodgers to Red Sox.

LA lost its top two pitchers in games started for the entire postseason -- Stone and Glasnow (not to mention several others pencilled into the rotation a year ago, including their Hall of Fame lefty) -- and team closer and saves leader Phillips for the entire World Series...

... and still won it all.

It isn't luck that the Dodgers organization constantly, consistently provides a wealth of talent to legitimately contend for rings every single year.

Thank you for making my point. 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Come on, we're not really comparing Dodgers to Red Sox.

LA lost its top two pitchers in games started for the entire postseason -- Stone and Glasnow (not to mention several others pencilled into the rotation a year ago, including their Hall of Fame lefty) -- and team closer and saves leader Phillips for the entire World Series...

... and still won it all.

It isn't luck that the Dodgers organization constantly, consistently provides a wealth of talent to legitimately contend for rings every single year.

While the Red Sox have been running out of steam every year. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Thank you for making my point. 

But his point is not in the Red Sox favor.  We don't have depth, so injuries to key players are even more damaging.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

and it's going to happen again this year. maybe not the same guys, but it's gonna happen.

For sure, but I think one of our strengths is our depth (my whole quantity vs quality theory.)

We are thin at SS, unless Mayer is for real. I'm not high on Rafaela or DHam at SS. Romy might be the best option, and he's not great.

We are this at the top for a Catcher.

We are thin at 1B, unless we give Devers a 1Bman mitt.

OF is okay. DH is overloaded.

Campbell, Anthony and Mayer are the wildcards.

Our pen is deep but weak at the top.

Our rotation looks good for quality and quantity, IMO.

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

While the Red Sox have been running out of steam every year. 

I wish Cora would schedule days off for our stars.

(LOL)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But his point is not in the Red Sox favor.  We don't have depth, so injuries to key players are even more damaging.

Our SP'er depth in 2024 was Houck and Criswell.

Our 1B depth sucked, until DSmith finally caught on, and he was an in-season add-on.

Our OF D was more than fine.

Our 2B depth caught on, late, as DHam and Romy did better than Grissom/E Valdez/Reyes.

Our SS depth did okay, once we settled on Rafaela, but it wasn't great.

Our pen depth sucked, as we used over 30 guys in relief.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But his point is not in the Red Sox favor.  We don't have depth, so injuries to key players are even more damaging.

Not a point I ever refuted, but as you said the difference was injuries it was KEY injuries. 

Unless you have some kind of definitive proof that better players are more likely to be hurt in boston than guys who suck I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. 

My point stands, every team deals with injuries. Does it hurt more when you don't have depth? or hurt more when those are key players? of course. Never did I say the opposite of that.  There's still an element of luck, and when you couple that with the additions they've made and the young talent coming up to the bigs AND you were to add a few more pieces (E.G. Bregman, Scott) I think the Sox have all the ingredients to be a contender next year. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But his point is not in the Red Sox favor.  We don't have depth, so injuries to key players are even more damaging.

Plenty of depth. Just not good depth.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Our SP'er depth in 2024 was Houck and Criswell.

Our 1B depth sucked, until DSmith finally caught on, and he was an in-season add-on.

Our OF D was more than fine.

Our 2B depth caught on, late, as DHam and Romy did better than Grissom/E Valdez/Reyes.

Our SS depth did okay, once we settled on Rafaela, but it wasn't great.

Our pen depth sucked, as we used over 30 guys in relief.

I'm OK with our pitching depth.  I'm complaining about our offense's depth.  A lot of key guys that had injuries last year.  Our best hitter with major shoulder pain that is supposed to magically stop.  Our DH apparently not a go for opening day.  One of our only home run threats gone. 

Like I say, go Roman, go Kristian.   

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Plenty of depth. Just not good depth.

Well from that vantage point everyone has the exact kind of depth.  They all got 40 men and a 165 domestic reserve.  But point taken. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only legit reasons to have a shred of optimism about our 2025 offense are Anthony and Campbell. 

The rest is just Pollyannalytics and wishcasting.

They subtracted the 3rd best hitter from an offense that collapsed in mid-August and didn't replace him.  Our best RH hitters from last year have names like Refsnyder and Wong.    

Go Roman, go Kristian!  🙃

 

It’s also only January 17th and many top free agents and trade targets are still available…