A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I would do trout plus some cash for  yoshida and gioletta! 

Trout has 6 years $223mill left on his contract and can’t stay on the field for 60 games.  Also he reportedly insists he’s the starting centerfielder…

[notin]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Well Trout wouldn’t be in anyone’s way considering all the IL time he needs.

I’d rather have Rendon than Trout.  At least his deal has only two years.

But I’d rather have Yoshida than Rendon, so maybe the Angels aren’t the team to call…

[oldtimer]

I have been dormant for months after seeing the Sox falter as I expected they would. I agree with Hugh to some extent. Bring up the young talent to solve the 2nd base situation and improve the outfield. The young players don't have to get gray in their beards before becoming a positive, Trade Yoshida as he is not a field player and hasn't the power to be a DH. Look to Story to fill SS. Find a RH power bat in free agency. Not from the dumpster but someone front line. If need be, move Devers to DH. Costly for the position but it improves the defense and lowers the injury risks. With the extra money, get a front line starter and a RP who can deal with pressure situations. That requires adjustments in thinking by management and also coaching but should be enough to earn us a playoff spot. I've been a fan since the 1940's but have not felt optimistic about management being either intelligent or being willing to spend on the team. Hope they prove me wrong.

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I really have my doubts they go after Burnes or Fried.  I think their risk aversion about those kind of contracts is very real.  (And may even be justified, based on the breakdown rate of pitchers).  

Hell, they wouldn't even beat $53 million to sign Imanaga.   

I'm tired of hearing that excuse (not from you but from the FO) big market successful teams take big swings. 

Sox could trade Casas/Campbell for a stud starting pitcher and move Devers over to 1B.  But then what do you do? go out and pay Bregman a massive contract that is probably just as risky at 3B and roll the dice with Story being healthy at SS and Grissom at 2nd?

The point is, the Sox have the capacity to make those big swings and even miss a little if they don't have to pay big money at 2B/1B/CF/LF/RF because they have young cost controlled talent.  Trading young talent is just robbing peter to pay paul.  I say just pay paul goddamnit. 

[Bellhorn04]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm tired of hearing that excuse (not from you but from the FO) big market successful teams take big swings. 

Sox could trade Casas/Campbell for a stud starting pitcher and move Devers over to 1B.  But then what do you do? go out and pay Bregman a massive contract that is probably just as risky at 3B and roll the dice with Story being healthy at SS and Grissom at 2nd?

The point is, the Sox have the capacity to make those big swings and even miss a little if they don't have to pay big money at 2B/1B/CF/LF/RF because they have young cost controlled talent.  Trading young talent is just robbing peter to pay paul.  I say just pay paul goddamnit. 

And I agree with you.

But we've never heard the end of how Dombrowski put us on the road to ruin with Price and Sale.

High-priced pitching has become absurdly risky.  I'm not sure what the answer is, other than guessing right.

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Trout has 6 years $223mill left on his contract and can’t stay on the field for 60 games.  Also he reportedly insists he’s the starting centerfielder…

It sucks that Trout's brilliant career has been waylaid by injuries and playing on a crap team. 

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He spent, but “that’s history pal,” as Eck once said. Until he spends again, we’re stuck at .500.

Nobody likes being near .500, seemingly forever.

That's on JH as much as anyone else, if not more so.

I'm not happy. I probably don't have many Sox fans sharing my position. 

I'm glad he took over ownership and am thrilled with the results he helped bring about. I hope to hell, he isn't going to stay a miser the rest of his era, and if he does, my views on him will change, more than they already have, but I will always be eternally grateful.

I honestly felt like I was going to die, never seeing the Sox reach glory.

Of course, I want more, like everyone else. I'm just not so quick to turn on someone.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course, I want more, like everyone else. I'm just not so quick to turn on someone.

Why is Henry any different than all the CBOs he has sent packing?

When Henry bought the Sox, we were lucky, but he was lucky too.  He had a strong baseball and marketing man in Lucchino.  And Lucchino brought in Epstein.

Lucchino probably had more to do with our rings than Henry.

 

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I agree with you.

But we've never heard the end of how Dombrowski put us on the road to ruin with Price and Sale.

High-priced pitching has become absurdly risky.  I'm not sure what the answer is, other than guessing right.

But did he? is that actually true?

Being frugal, and poor drafts put us on the road to ruin, but it was the front office decision to stay there that led to a 1/2 a decade of mostly suck.  Otherwise we may of just had a down season or two. 

Also, as bad as price was, he was probably better than what our 4th/5th starters gave us in 2021/2022 anyways and we still paid a lot of his salary.  THen there's Sale, who Henry probably ordered to be traded because he hates the risk of long term contracts and then was slapped in the face with the reality of what COULD HAPPEN when you stand behind high end talent. 

After Chris Sale, no one deserves his Cy Young season more than John Henry.  Egg on his face. 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody likes being near .500, seemingly forever.

That's on JH as much as anyone else, if not more so.

I'm not happy. I probably don't have many Sox fans sharing my position. 

I'm glad he took over ownership and am thrilled with the results he helped bring about. I hope to hell, he isn't going to stay a miser the rest of his era, and if he does, my views on him will change, more than they already have, but I will always be eternally grateful.

I honestly felt like I was going to die, never seeing the Sox reach glory.

Of course, I want more, like everyone else. I'm just not so quick to turn on someone.

Turn on someone? Por whiz me it’s John Henry.🙈🤭🤮

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I really have my doubts they go after Burnes or Fried.  I think their risk aversion about those kind of contracts is very real.  (And may even be justified, based on the breakdown rate of pitchers).  

Hell, they wouldn't even beat $53 million to sign Imanaga.   

yet they opened the vault for Yoshida. this makes me think of the Seinfeld episode where George decides that since every big decision he's made in his life has been wrong then it's time to do the opposite. that's where i'm at with the Red Sox FO.

Jerry Seinfeld: "If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

[Duran Is The Man]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody likes being near .500, seemingly forever.

That's on JH as much as anyone else, if not more so.

I'm not happy. I probably don't have many Sox fans sharing my position. 

I'm glad he took over ownership and am thrilled with the results he helped bring about. I hope to hell, he isn't going to stay a miser the rest of his era, and if he does, my views on him will change, more than they already have, but I will always be eternally grateful.

I honestly felt like I was going to die, never seeing the Sox reach glory.

Of course, I want more, like everyone else. I'm just not so quick to turn on someone.

how much longer can Henry s*** on the fanbase you before you change your views on him?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It sucks that Trout's brilliant career has been waylaid by injuries and playing on a crap team. 

He’s his own worst enemy. He could probably play more often if he moved into a LF/DH role…

[win red sox]

Per BTV, if the sox took on Trout's contract then the angels would have to take on Yoshida's and Story's contract plus 50 million. I would do it, if you could convince Trout to DH.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why is Henry any different than all the CBOs he has sent packing?

When Henry bought the Sox, we were lucky, but he was lucky too.  He had a strong baseball and marketing man in Lucchino.  And Lucchino brought in Epstein.

Lucchino probably had more to do with our rings than Henry.

 

He is different because he is the boss. He's not going to send himself packing, unless he's done with the effort, or thinks he can make more money elsewhere.

He's not above accountability to the fans, but I guess it depends on how demanding a fan you are, or how much history factors into your length of leash. 

I admit, I got greedy after the first ring, after thinking for 3 decades, I'd be in heaven with just one ring in my lifetime. 6 years is a long time with just one playoff appearance.

I will ask, who hired Lucchino? What about the 2018 Lucchino-less ring? Who allowed DD to go nutty on spending and trading prospects?

I'm fine with crediting Lucchino, Epstein, DD and others more than JH, but I still think if we kept the same ownership as pre-JH, we might have 0-1 rings in my lifetime.

I don't see the need to re-write history to vilify a guy who has let us down, recently (not that you are doing this.)

JH was a major factor in changing the atmosphere of the organization towards winning.

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s his own worst enemy. He could probably play more often if he moved into a LF/DH role…

It's like Whitlock wanting to be a starter.  Sometimes management has to make the decision for the player, for the good of everyone...

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how much longer can Henry s*** on the fanbase you before you change your views on him?

If we finish in last place 5 more years, I'll still be grateful for 4 rings, but will have a slightly overall negative view on him. Nothing will take away that feeling of thankfulness to him and who he hired to get us to glory.

I'm pissed at what he's done, but that does not mean I have to hate the guy. I'm pissed at what some of my family and friends have done, but I do not see only black and white.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's like Whitlock wanting to be a starter.  Sometimes management has to make the decision for the player, for the good of everyone...

I read that Whitlock is open to doing whatever the medical staff recommends for him to stay healthy.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, win red sox said:

Per BTV, if the sox took on Trout's contract then the angels would have to take on Yoshida's and Story's contract plus 50 million. I would do it, if you could convince Trout to DH.

If Trout agreed to DH ONLY, I'd trade Yoshida, Story and Giolito straight up.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I agree with you.

But we've never heard the end of how Dombrowski put us on the road to ruin with Price and Sale.

High-priced pitching has become absurdly risky.  I'm not sure what the answer is, other than guessing right.

One answer is investing more in the bullpen. 
 

High-priced starters often get higher AAVs, more years, pitch fewer innings than they used to, and at best can only influence 32 games.

Higher priced relief pitchers cost less for fewer years and can influence 50-60 games.

We talk about the rotations of the Padres and the Phillies that got them this far.  But look at the rotations for the Mets, Tigers, and Guardians, and they’ve all gotten just as far…

[notin]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Trout agreed to DH ONLY, I'd trade Yoshida, Story and Giolito straight up.

Why?

Trout is owed close to $100mill more than all three of them combined and would be an excuse not to spend for much longer.

 

Plus he might wind up playing fewer games than each of them, despite the longer deal.  Less baseball for more money is the exact opposite direction the Sox need…

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we finish in last place 5 more years, I'll still be grateful for 4 rings, but will have a slightly overall negative view on him. Nothing will take away that feeling of thankfulness to him and who he hired to get us to glory.

I'm pissed at what he's done, but that does not mean I have to hate the guy. I'm pissed at what some of my family and friends have done, but I do not see only black and white.

NO One is not grateful for the 4 WS won under JH ownership, but he’s used up his usefulness, and it’s time for him to go IMO. You don’t have to hate someone to want someone to go, and it won’t take any glory away either. I know you like to dramatize, but that doesn’t change anything.Sell, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out. 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Trout agreed to DH ONLY, I'd trade Yoshida, Story and Giolito straight up.

Once again I’ll say with 100% certainty that the Red Sox have no interest in Trout playing make believe, or not.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's like Whitlock wanting to be a starter.  Sometimes management has to make the decision for the player, for the good of everyone...

True, except Whitlock likely lacks the clout to call his own shots.  Sure he wanted to start, but he had support that made it happen…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

NO One is not grateful for the 4 WS won under JH ownership, but he’s used up his usefulness, and it’s time for him to go IMO. You don’t have to hate someone to want someone to go, and it won’t take any glory away either. I know you like to dramatize, but that doesn’t change anything.Sell, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out. 

This should be filed under “be careful what you wish for.”   As cheap as Henry has been lately, he’s still outspending most.owners.  
 

A few years ago, I recall someone on this forum (Bellhorn, maybe?) wishing the Sox would stop reducing payroll every three years to reset the tax limit.  Well, we got that wish.  And everyone is happy, right?

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

True, except Whitlock likely lacks the clout to call his own shots.  Sure he wanted to start, but he had support that made it happen…

Whitlock said in an interview with TC during ST last year that he wanted to be a Swiss Army knife. That doesn’t sound like wanting to start to me.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

This should be filed under “be careful what you wish for.”   As cheap as Henry has been lately, he’s still outspending most.owners.  
 

A few years ago, I recall someone on this forum (Bellhorn, maybe?) wishing the Sox would stop reducing payroll every three years to reset the tax limit.  Well, we got that wish.  And everyone is happy, right?

I’ve already responded to the careful what you wish for from Moon more than once. I’ll take my chances.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Whitlock said in an interview with TC during ST last year that he wanted to be a Swiss Army knife. That doesn’t sound like wanting to start to me.

Sounds like he wants to be a screwdriver with a toothpick attached…

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

One answer is investing more in the bullpen. 
 

High-priced starters often get higher AAVs, more years, pitch fewer innings than they used to, and at best can only influence 32 games.

Higher priced relief pitchers cost less for fewer years and can influence 50-60 games.

We talk about the rotations of the Padres and the Phillies that got them this far.  But look at the rotations for the Mets, Tigers, and Guardians, and they’ve all gotten just as far…

This makes sense, and Bloom did invest in the pen. He spent more AAV on Jansen ($16M) + Martin ($7.5M) than on total SP AAV for any year, I can remember.

'23: $10M Kluber + $4M Paxton = $14M

'22: $7M Wacha + $5M Hill +$6M Paxton= $16M

'21: $10M Richards + $5M Perez= $15M

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

This should be filed under “be careful what you wish for.”   As cheap as Henry has been lately, he’s still outspending most.owners.  
 

A few years ago, I recall someone on this forum (Bellhorn, maybe?) wishing the Sox would stop reducing payroll every three years to reset the tax limit.  Well, we got that wish.  And everyone is happy, right?

I think all I did was point out that a number of teams had clearly abandoned the mantra of re-setting every third year.