A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[dgalehouse]

If you are a big-time franchise, you do what is necessary to keep up with the top teams. That includes spending the money to retain your stars. You don't lose a Mookie Betts. At some point, John Henry thought he could emulate the Rays and build a contender without spending big. That was the reason for bringing in Bloom. We are still struggling with the effects and the fallout from that. Whether or not Henry told Bloom to trade Mookie does not matter now. Hopefully, the Sox can get back on top before too much longer. 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But I thought you were saying all JH did was set the budget and the rest was up to Bloom to figure out?

In any case, you've admitted they could have done it, so it's kind of case closed.

To be honest, I didn't even notice that was what we were arguing about. Maybe I misunderstood.

I'm not 100% sure Bloom was handed a set budget and told, you work it out as you think best, but either way, I'm not sure it matters, to me.

What matter to me s that JH made serious cuts to the budget. We may never know, if it was in the form of one-by-one "NO's" to each big contract presented, or just a general set budget with more say by the GM on who gets signed.

I thought I was very clear, and I think my first response on this said, "Of course JH could afford anybody." That statement certainly makes it clear we "could have" matched the Dodgers, so Max was wrong, in that sense, yes.

There is a chance JH told Bloom, "Don't offer any more than we already did to Betts." To me, that changes nothing. We still could have but chose not to. The only difference is bringing Bloom's choices into the blame game, or not. I thought this talk was about JH and penny-pinching.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

If you are a big-time franchise, you do what is necessary to keep up with the top teams. That includes spending the money to retain your stars. You don't lose a Mookie Betts. At some point, John Henry thought he could emulate the Rays and build a contender without spending big. That was the reason for bringing in Bloom. We are still struggling with the effects and the fallout from that. Whether or not Henry told Bloom to trade Mookie does not matter now. Hopefully, the Sox can get back on top before too much longer. 

I agree. There are just a tiny few players, you just have to draw a line and keep. I also don't think Betts was being totally unreasonable with his demands, but he did seem to say he wanted to test the market, so I can understand an owner thinking how absurd might this get?

Look at what Ohtani and Yamamoto got. Look what Bogey got.

I'm not defending JH. He needed to just simply make it happen (like he did with Devers, after semi-learning a lesson.) The whole COVID thing and what he ended up signing for make it look like it was easier to keep Betts than maybe it looked in 2019 to early 2020. Again, no excuse: JH blundered, badly. He may never live it down.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now that's the kind of plain language I'm talkin' about! 😀

Henry has more money than his great-great-great grandkids would ever need, yet he acts like the Red Sox are broke. there is no f***ing way this team is losing money. so, why in hell would you want to own a team if you don't care about spending money to win? ego? so he could have even more money? clearly, the Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Yankees don't give a f*** about making money. they want to win. Henry....not so much.

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. There are just a tiny few players, you just have to draw a line and keep. I also don't think Betts was being totally unreasonable with his demands, but he did seem to say he wanted to test the market, so I can understand an owner thinking how absurd might this get?

Look at what Ohtani and Yamamoto got. Look what Bogey got.

I'm not defending JH. He needed to just simply make it happen (like he did with Devers, after semi-learning a lesson.) The whole COVID thing and what he ended up signing for make it look like it was easier to keep Betts than maybe it looked in 2019 to early 2020. Again, no excuse: JH blundered, badly. He may never live it down.

he's the 21st century version of Harry Frazee, who was literally known for two things: owning the Red Sox and selling Babe Ruth. i suspect Henry's legacy will be very, very similar.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he's the 21st century version of Harry Frazee, who was literally known for two things: owning the Red Sox and selling Babe Ruth. i suspect Henry's legacy will be very, very similar.

I strongly disagree. JH spent more than other teams, many times. No other Sox owner comes close.

I know Red, and maybe a few others, think JH was not significantly responsible for our 4 rings in 2 decades, but I do. I waited over 30 years to see the glory. I was thinking I never would.

The guy may be a big __ fill in the blank___, but for over 15 years he gave what was needed to get it done.

This does not put him above criticism, but it does add some context, I think is needed.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I strongly disagree. JH spent more than other teams, many times. No other Sox owner comes close.

I know Red, and maybe a few others, think JH was not significantly responsible for our 4 rings in 2 decades, but I do. I waited over 30 years to see the glory. I was thinking I never would.

The guy may be a big __ fill in the blank___, but for over 15 years he gave what was needed to get it done.

This does not put him above criticism, but it does add some context, I think is needed.

And lost in Frazee’s legacy is he owned the team when they won the 1918 title.

The 1919 team came in 6th and that preceded the sale of Babe Ruth…

[Duran Is The Man]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I strongly disagree. JH spent more than other teams, many times. No other Sox owner comes close.

I know Red, and maybe a few others, think JH was not significantly responsible for our 4 rings in 2 decades, but I do. I waited over 30 years to see the glory. I was thinking I never would.

The guy may be a big __ fill in the blank___, but for over 15 years he gave what was needed to get it done.

This does not put him above criticism, but it does add some context, I think is needed.

i know he did all that. and Frazee had a championship team as well, but nobody remembers that. my comment was how he will be remembered. his legacy, like Frazee, will be that of an egotistical cheapskate who dealt a popular player to save money. f*** Henry.

[dgalehouse]

John Henry came in like gangbusters. Determined to do what was necessary to compete with Steinbrenner and the Yankees. It worked. At some point, he decided that he was spending too much on the Red Sox . He wanted to try and do things differently. So far, that hasn't worked. That is where we are today. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, dgalehouse said:

John Henry came in like gangbusters. Determined to do what was necessary to compete with Steinbrenner and the Yankees. It worked. At some point, he decided that he was spending too much on the Red Sox . He wanted to try and do things differently. So far, that hasn't worked. That is where we are today. 

And I can't help wondering if Henry has been feeling a little less motivated because the Yankees haven't won it all since 2009.  The Yankees are always the elephant in the room for the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know he did all that. and Frazee had a championship team as well, but nobody remembers that. my comment was how he will be remembered. his legacy, like Frazee, will be that of an egotistical cheapskate who dealt a popular player to save money. f*** Henry.

He won't be remembered like that by everybody, and IMO, not even half of Sox fans, after the recent anger wears off.

Maybe younger fans, who didn't live through a decades long drought or don't appreciate how much it took to build the 2018 juggernaut might hold the animosity you have beyond his time as the Sox owner, but that's not how I will remember him.

I won't forget this part of his time, here, but I won't forget 2003 to 2018 time period, either.

I think most will view JH with some degree of mixed feelings. How he does from 2025 and beyond might make a difference, too. I remember fan being pissed at seeing some 2004 stars depart, then we shut up in 2007. Fans were irate after 2012, but then, ooops! The 2014 and 2015 seasons started bringing back unrest, before the 3 straight divisional championships happened under DD. 2018 was a perfect season, in many ways, and it seemed like the core was young enough to extend the window for at least 2-3 more years, but the dismantling began, almost immediately, when we let K & K walk after 2018.

The last few years have sucked, bigtime. 2021 is barely a memory, anymore. I share the anger. It did not have to be like this. Letting Betts walk really sucked, but it went far beyond that, too.

That being said, I think we are nearing another "window." Let's see how JH handles, this one.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I strongly disagree. JH spent more than other teams, many times. No other Sox owner comes close.

I know Red, and maybe a few others, think JH was not significantly responsible for our 4 rings in 2 decades, but I do. I waited over 30 years to see the glory. I was thinking I never would.

The guy may be a big __ fill in the blank___, but for over 15 years he gave what was needed to get it done.

This does not put him above criticism, but it does add some context, I think is needed.

JH may have spent more money than other Sox owners in the past, but the game, and money involved has changed drastically through the years with payrolls going up, and up, and up. JH has been a good owner for the most part, but the JH of the 2000’s until the 2018 Season I believe is long gone, and may never appear again. 4 WS were won in that time, and he gets some credit for that. The Red Sox came close in years before, but I don’t think if JH had been the owner it wouldn’t have helped beat Bob Gibson in 67, or the Big Red Machine in 75, or Billy Buck wouldn’t have let the ball between his legs against the Mets. JH served his purpose, and to me it’s time to move on. And yes Moon I’m careful what I’m wishIng for.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I can't help wondering if Henry has been feeling a little less motivated because the Yankees haven't won it all since 2009.  The Yankees are always the elephant in the room for the Red Sox.

I could see that as part of the dynamic. I think he must also feel satisfied with just bringing one ring to an area that went over 80 seasons without one. The second, third and fourth were gravy, in some ways. 

He may feel like he's done enough and may never spend a ton, again.

I guess we will find that out/

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He won't be remembered like that by everybody, and IMO, not even half of Sox fans, after the recent anger wears off.

Maybe younger fans, who didn't live through a decades long drought or don't appreciate how much it took to build the 2018 juggernaut might hold the animosity you have beyond his time as the Sox owner, but that's not how I will remember him.

I won't forget this part of his time, here, but I won't forget 2003 to 2018 time period, either.

I think most will view JH with some degree of mixed feelings. How he does from 2025 and beyond might make a difference, too. I remember fan being pissed at seeing some 2004 stars depart, then we shut up in 2007. Fans were irate after 2012, but then, ooops! The 2014 and 2015 seasons started bringing back unrest, before the 3 straight divisional championships happened under DD. 2018 was a perfect season, in many ways, and it seemed like the core was young enough to extend the window for at least 2-3 more years, but the dismantling began, almost immediately, when we let K & K walk after 2018.

The last few years have sucked, bigtime. 2021 is barely a memory, anymore. I share the anger. It did not have to be like this. Letting Betts walk really sucked, but it went far beyond that, too.

That being said, I think we are nearing another "window." Let's see how JH handles, this one.

Don’t make it sound like you’ve been a Red Sox fan all your life, because you haven’t, and haven’t had the same experiences of the ones who have been, and for a longer time. How you remember him is different than how I remember him. You can keep looking out the same window all you want, but that window has a lot of cracks in it.

[moonslav59]

From 2023-2024, the Sox had two RP'ers in the top 20 fWAR:

T16 Jansen at 2.5

T20 Martin at 2.4

As bad as our pen has been, we are about to lose our best two guys.

Slaten offers some big hopes, as his 1.5 fWAR matched the high seasons from Martin (1.5 in 2023) and Jansen (1.4 in '24,) but we need more help than Hendriks and Fulmer promise.

I'm sure Brez is aware and already looking for possible targets.

I'll admit, I'm not expert on other team's best RP'ers and who might be available by trade, but maybe this can be the area we spend more money on. Jansen and Martin were not cheap, but we need a recommitment to this weak area on the team.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think owners should be viewed differently from players or managers.  We were all extremely grateful to Pedro for what he did for us, but most Sox fans think his departure after 2004 was for the best.  Francona and Dombrowski were shown the door in spite of numerous winning seasons and championships.  Success doesn't give anyone a lifetime pass to stick around and soak up adulation.  The only difference is you can't fire or trade the owner.   

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think owners should be viewed differently from players or managers.  We were all extremely grateful to Pedro for what he did for us, but most Sox fans think his departure after 2004 was for the best.  Francona and Dombrowski were shown the door in spite of numerous winning seasons and championships.  Success doesn't give anyone a lifetime pass to stick around and soak up adulation.  The only difference is you can't fire or trade the owner.   

Well said, and agree 100%.

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

If you are a big-time franchise, you do what is necessary to keep up with the top teams. That includes spending the money to retain your stars. You don't lose a Mookie Betts. At some point, John Henry thought he could emulate the Rays and build a contender without spending big. That was the reason for bringing in Bloom. We are still struggling with the effects and the fallout from that. Whether or not Henry told Bloom to trade Mookie does not matter now. Hopefully, the Sox can get back on top before too much longer. 

We are stuck in mediocrity because of Henry’s worldview. He wants to win while being cheap which would show how smart he is. In the meantime, we get .500 baseball. Fun!

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I strongly disagree. JH spent more than other teams, many times. No other Sox owner comes close.

I know Red, and maybe a few others, think JH was not significantly responsible for our 4 rings in 2 decades, but I do. I waited over 30 years to see the glory. I was thinking I never would.

The guy may be a big __ fill in the blank___, but for over 15 years he gave what was needed to get it done.

This does not put him above criticism, but it does add some context, I think is needed.

He spent, but “that’s history pal,” as Eck once said. Until he spends again, we’re stuck at .500.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I can't help wondering if Henry has been feeling a little less motivated because the Yankees haven't won it all since 2009.  The Yankees are always the elephant in the room for the Red Sox.

Maybe what’s best for business is the Yanks to win a few and Henry to continue to look like a dope.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think owners should be viewed differently from players or managers.  We were all extremely grateful to Pedro for what he did for us, but most Sox fans think his departure after 2004 was for the best.  Francona and Dombrowski were shown the door in spite of numerous winning seasons and championships.  Success doesn't give anyone a lifetime pass to stick around and soak up adulation.  The only difference is you can't fire or trade the owner.   

🔫 💣 💀 🫡

 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He spent, but “that’s history pal,” as Eck once said. Until he spends again, we’re stuck at .500.

We got to 500 this year, which was a slight improvement in the standings, but I think it was not all getting better, but with a combination of other teams getting worse especially in the Div. KC showed this year that a big jump in the standings can happen with some effort in trying to make the ball club better unlike what the Red Sox did this past offseason.

[Larry Cook]

On 10/7/2024 at 11:40 AM, moonslav59 said:

One massively expensive RHB contract is Trout's. He's way to expensive for JH to pay, and he seems to refuse to be moved from CF, and would likely refuse to DH. He's owed $37M a year until 2030 (6 more years!) His lux tax hit is $35M.

Even giving LAA Yoshida at $18M x 3, would hardly put a dent into what Trout is paid and will be worth. He just turned 33 and is always hurt- just what we need, right?

Anyway, what might a Yoshida for Trout deal look like? How much money would LAA have to pay, beyond the $54M they get in Yoshida? Would adding T Anderson at 413M x 1, lessen the payback amount and sweeten the pot for the Sox?

I think he's owed $222M/6. Minus $54M for Yoshida and Maybe another $54M paid years 4-6 would bring the cost to us down to about $19M a year and $17M CBT. I still would not do it. Add T Anderson, and I'd still say no, even if he agreed to DH fulltime.

Trout looks like the next Pujols, or maybe he already is him.

I would do trout plus some cash for  yoshida and gioletta! 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I would do trout plus some cash for  yoshida and gioletta! 

I would say with 100% certainty that the Red Sox would want NO part of  broken down Trout.🙈🤭🤮

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I would say with 100% certainty that the Red Sox would want NO part of  broken down Trout.🙈🤭🤮

You put trout at DH and you get veteran leadership for all our youngsters and he and devers are a very deadly lefty- righty combo in the middle of your lineup! Devers will see more fastballs than he has seen in years and his numbers will explode 

This is the righty bat that makes our lineup dangerous 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I would do trout plus some cash for  yoshida and gioletta! 

Well Trout wouldn’t be in anyone’s way considering all the IL time he needs.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I would say with 100% certainty that the Red Sox would want NO part of  broken down Trout.🙈🤭🤮

Sox don’t get enough kickback from jersey sales to do that deal.

[Hugh2]

By zero means do I believe this team shouldn't make moves.

As a matter of fact I'm a firm believer that the Sox need to make serious additions to this roster, high end stars not dumpster dives etc. 

But do people out there think that this team as is won't get any better.  Do they think roster development is 100% contingent on adding free agents, or making trades?

Tristan Casas, entering his age 25 season right at his prime, shouldn't he get better? A healthy Trevor Story massively improves the team up the middle, I'd expect about the same from the Raphael Devers, Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Brayan Bello, Cutter Crawford group collectively.

Kristian Campbell, and Anthony Roman have good shots at starting next year and budding into super stars, with Kyle Teel and Marcelo Mayer right behind them.  Sure, one or two of them may falter, but when is the last time we had 4 top 25 prospects all ready or close to MLB ready at the same time?  Seriously, I can't think of a single time ever.  

I'm not sure if all of Hendriks, Fulmer, Whitlock, and Giolito come back healthy and strong next year but I think 1-2 of them probably will. 

Now, I know what the nay-sayers are thinking of saying to this.  I can already feel there fingers slamming down on the keyboard in protest accusing me of being a bastard son to Chaim Bloom.  But I'm not anointing them a world series contender.  I just think they have a young, talented roster, that is heading in the right direction.  I can easily see them falling into the 85-90 win range as is. 

The point I'm working up to. 

That group costs you nothing, it sets you 80 million below the luxury tax limit and still far below what the Sox typically spend even in their "budget conscious" era.

If they take their team as is, and add a couple high end arms, maybe even one high end starter and one high end relief pitcher, they can easily afford it because they won't have to pay any position players in FA for a few years (although I can see a back up catcher being signed this offseason).

Give me one of Corbin Burnes/ Max Fried and then buy me Tanner Scott.

That type of high end talent could push this team into being a world series contender.  Which is where they belong. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I really have my doubts they go after Burnes or Fried.  I think their risk aversion about those kind of contracts is very real.  (And may even be justified, based on the breakdown rate of pitchers).  

Hell, they wouldn't even beat $53 million to sign Imanaga.   

[notin]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

You put trout at DH and you get veteran leadership for all our youngsters and he and devers are a very deadly lefty- righty combo in the middle of your lineup! Devers will see more fastballs than he has seen in years and his numbers will explode 

This is the righty bat that makes our lineup dangerous 

A dangerous bat for at least 60 games…